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On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

More than likely the Chinese government is hiding the truth about the magnitude of this virus and it's infection rate and death toll. Will it turn out to be man made?
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

sixthson said:
More than likely the Chinese government is hiding the truth about the magnitude of this virus and it's infection rate and death toll. Will it turn out to be man made?
Click to expand...

Early on in the Chinese epidemic, they were low-balling the numbers. In their defense, they were overwhelmed and because they didn't know that this was a new virus, they may have attributed the large number of sick patients to influenza. It wasn't until late December that the leaks started coming out from the hospitals saying that they were seeing something unusual.

In mid-January, President Xi started doing public appearances instead of deferring to party underlyings. In late January, they fired a bunch of the local public health management and that's when the numbers really started going up. That's another hint that the local officials weren't counting properly and they were under-reporting.

The DNA analysis is showing that this coronavirus is very close to other common coronaviruses including MERS and SARS. If someone were going to engineer a virus, they would have engineered something that was both highly contagious and highly lethal. It is more likely that this is another coronavirus- like SARS and MERS- that happened through normal genetic drift of an existing coronavirus.

What is new in COVID19 is that China has built a shitload of new airports since the SARS epidemic. I've seen a statistic that said that 200,000 people traveled to or from China every day (including about 4,000 people traveling between the US and China per day). That travel is a great way to spread a virus internally.
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

29-Feb-2020:

COVID-19 stats:
Cases reported: 85,406 (up from 83,704 yesterday)
Deaths: 2,933 (up from 2,859 yesterday

Cases reported in the US - 64 (up from 60 yesterday, includes 36 Diamond Princess cases)

Cases reported in Canada - 15 (up from 14 yesterday)

Coronavirus cases in 49 countries:
  • South Korea - 3,150 cases (up from 2,337 cases yesterday) - 17 deaths
  • Italy - 888 cases (up from 655 yesterday) - 17 people have died.
  • Iran - 388 cases (up from 270 cases yesterday) - 43 deaths
  • France - 57 cases, 2 deaths
  • Germany -48 cases
  • Australia - 25 cases
  • UK - 20 cases, no deaths (1 UK citizen on the Diamond Princess has died)


United States: 4 new cases
  • A worker at an elementary school in Washington County, Oregon, no travel history or known exposure
  • A high school student in Snohomish County, Washington, no travel history or known exposure
  • A woman in Santa Clara County, California near Sacramento, no travel history or known exposure
  • A woman in King County, Washington who had traveled to South Korea

Diamond Princess:
  • Over 700 cases total, 6 deaths
  • Of the passengers returned to the US, 14 were known to have tested positive. This week, an additional 4 passengers (who are now in the US) have tested positive.
  • A UK citizen died in Japan. He was was one of 4 passengers who tested positive and were hospitalized in Japan.
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

KaraBulut said:
29-Feb-2020:
Iran - 388 cases (up from 270 cases yesterday) - 43 deaths
Click to expand...

We have known that the stats coming out of Iran didn't quite make sense. The BBC is alleging that the case count and death count are much higher.

Coronavirus: Iran's deaths at least 210, hospital sources say [BBC]
Most of the victims are from the capital, Tehran, and the city of Qom, where cases of Covid-19 first emerged.

The figure is six times higher than the official death toll of 34 given by the health ministry earlier on Friday.

Ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour insisted it was being transparent and accused the BBC of spreading lies.

It comes after a member of parliament for Qom accused the authorities of a cover-up and the US expressed concern that they may not be sharing information.
Click to expand...

The city of Qom (population 1.2 million) is a pilgrimage site for Shi'a Muslims. About 20 million Muslims per year visit sites like the shrine of Fatimah bint Musa in Qom. With US sanctions hitting the Iranian economy hard, the influx of tourists also puts massive amounts of money into the Iranian economy.
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Missed this story from 3 days ago...

Flight attendant who flew out of Los Angeles diagnosed with coronavirus [The Hill]
A flight attendant based in Los Angeles was diagnosed with the new form of coronavirus in Seoul, South Korea, on Tuesday after reporting symptoms to authorities.

CBS Los Angeles reported that the unnamed flight attendant, an employee of Korean Air Lines, is believed by South Korean authorities to have contracted the disease while servicing a flight between South Korea and Tel Aviv. Passengers on the flight included members of a church congregation at the center of the main outbreak in South Korea.

Thirty members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus have tested positive for coronavirus after one 64-year-old member of the congregation is thought to have originally contracted the disease from an unknown source. Officials have announced plans to test the church's entire 215,000-member congregation.
Click to expand...
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

And this is the real danger. It isn't the 2% mortality rate...which is still 20 times more than the flu....it is the possibility of this happening across the US and Canada.

I don't know what percentage of staff at this hospital that this represented....but it would be a staggering hit to take.

While stipulating that a University of California at Davis medical facility is "generally better prepared and equipped" than most when it comes to dealing with such a situation, National Nurses United—the largest nurses union in the United States—warned Friday night that the self-quarantine of 124 healthcare workers there shows the nation's hospitals remain seriously unprepared for the coronavirus that officials warn is rapidly spreading.
Click to expand...

And it is one of the only weapons that an overtaxed health care system would have in order to contain the spread.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2..._Rk3DFxalPbmdpUg9ci0jTRUUKuboJxCITrJ5zrAtPKEM
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

rareboy said:
...I don't know what percentage of staff at this hospital that this represented....but it would be a staggering hit to take.
Click to expand...

UCD is a teaching hospital. It's pretty large facility that has 600-700 beds and a medical school. It's a well-respected medical center that few people outside northern California have heard of.

The UCD patient was transferred from a community hospital in Solano County after she had been there a few days with no improvement. No one has really talked about what happened to healthcare workers in that hospital.

The UC system uses a lot of per diem and agency nurses. It's going to be a big financial hit to cover the staff who are on quarantine.

Because the American health system is a for-profit model, insurers have been pushing hospitals to reduce inpatient stays, so there's not a lot of available bed capacity. We have about 1 million inpatient beds and about 70,000 mechanical ventilators, so an acute respiratory illness is going to create triage issues.
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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The first death from the coronavirus in the United States was confirmed this morning just a few miles away from me at the EvergreenHealth Medical Center in Kirkland, Washington.

 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

1-Mar-2020:

COVID-19 stats:
Cases reported: 86,986 (up from 85,406 yesterday)
Deaths: 2,979 (up from 2,933 yesterday

60 countries have reported cases.

Cases reported in the US - 71 (up from 64 yesterday, includes 44 Diamond Princess cases) 1 death

Cases reported in Canada - 20 cases (up from 15 yesterday)

Global coronavirus cases in major countries:
  • South Korea - 3,526 cases (up from 3,150 cases yesterday) - 17 deaths
  • Italy - 1,128 cases (up from 888 yesterday) - 29 people have died.
  • Iran - 593 cases (up from 388 cases yesterday) - 43 deaths
  • France - 100 cases (up from 57 cases yesterday), 2 deaths
  • Germany -79 cases (up from 48 cases yesterday)
  • Australia - 25 cases, 1 death
  • UK - 23 cases (up from 20 cases yesterday), no deaths (1 UK citizen on the Diamond Princess has died)


United States:
  • The United States reported their first death. The death occurred at a hospital in Washington state - a man in his 50s
  • Two of the new cases reported yesterday were connected to a long term nursing facility in Washington state raising the possibility an outbreak at the facility. One of the cases is a resident of the facility and the other is a worker at the facility.
  • Of the 71 cases, 44 are connected to the Diamond Princess, 3 are people who came down with virus in China then were moved back to the US and 24 are cases that were diagnosed on US soil.
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

From a layman's perspective, it seems tropical countries and countries currently in summer are escaping spread of the virus?
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Question, are the deaths all from east Asian ethnic background??
I noticed 1 Australian death, he is east Asian background.

'' Italy - 1,128 cases (up from 888 yesterday) - 29 people have died.
Iran - 593 cases (up from 388 cases yesterday) - 43 deaths
France - 100 cases (up from 57 cases yesterday), 2 deaths
Germany -79 cases (up from 48 cases yesterday)
Australia - 25 cases, 1 death
UK - 23 cases (up from 20 cases yesterday), no deaths (1 UK citizen on the Diamond Princess has died)
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Hopefully, some hopeful news:

Moderna has begun human testing of a vaccine, in record time:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

Also, a few drugs that seem to have some promise for people that have contracted this:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/24/investing/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-who-remdesivir/index.html

Went to Walmart today to pick up some alka-seltzer plus since I have a bit of a head cold. They were fairly picked clean of cold meds. Had to get the pills instead of the powder ):. Also, oddly, their pain pills, advil/tylenol/aspirin and all the others were completely gone, and of course no hand sanitizer. Lot of people were buying alcohol wipes. Also, for the first time ever, there was a huge line at the doors of people waiting the get the sanitizer wipes to wipe their baskets down.
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

KaraBulut said:
UCD is a teaching hospital. It's pretty large facility that has 600-700 beds and a medical school. It's a well-respected medical center that few people outside northern California have heard of.

The UCD patient was transferred from a community hospital in Solano County after she had been there a few days with no improvement. No one has really talked about what happened to healthcare workers in that hospital.
Click to expand...

We have the answer:

5 new presumptive positive coronavirus cases identified in California [CNN]
A total of five new presumptive positive cases of coronavirus were identified in California Sunday, according to health departments in three counties.

Two patients are health care workers from Alameda County and Solano County, according to a joint press release from two localities. Both are employees at NorthBay VacaValley Hospital in Vacaville, California, according to the release. Vacaville is about 34 miles southwest of Sacramento.

The two patients came into contact with a community-acquired case currently hospitalized at UC Davis Medical Center in Sacramento, the release said. The patients are currently in isolation at home.
Click to expand...
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Well, it has officially hit my county.

Gov: 2 in Florida test presumptively positive for COVID-19

Florida's governor disclosed late Sunday that two people had become the first in his state to test “presumptively positive" for COVID-19 and ordered his top health officer to declare a statewide public health emergency.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a statement that the cases arose in the counties of Manatee and Hillsborough. His announcement did not identify the individuals, specifics of their medical conditions or any routes of possible exposure. COVID-19 is caused by a member of the coronavirus family.
Click to expand...
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

2-Mar-2020:

COVID-19 stats:
Cases reported: 89,197 (up from 86,986 yesterday)
Deaths: 3,048 (up from 2,979 yesterday

60 countries have reported cases.

Cases reported in the US - 86 (up from 71 yesterday, includes 44 Diamond Princess cases) 2 deaths in the Seattle area

Cases reported in Canada - 24 cases (up from 20 yesterday)

Global coronavirus cases in major countries:
  • South Korea - 4,335 cases (up from 3,526 cases yesterday) - 26 deaths
  • Italy - 1,694 cases (up from 1,128 yesterday) - 34 people have died.
  • Iran - 978 cases (up from 593 cases yesterday) - 54 deaths
  • France -130 cases (up from 100 cases yesterday), 2 deaths
  • Germany -130 cases (up from 79 cases yesterday)
  • Australia - 29 cases (up from 25 cases yesterday) 1 death
  • UK - 36 cases (up from 23 cases yesterday), no deaths (1 UK citizen on the Diamond Princess has died)


United States:
  • Two deaths - both in Washington state - one was a 55 year old and the other was a 70 year old.
  • Several healthcare workers in Northern California have tested positive after a patient near Vacaville tested positive
  • Now found in 7 states in the US.
  • Two cases were diagnosed in the Tampa, Florida area. No details are available about whether these were travelers or whether it was community-acquired.
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

theworldwithout said:
Went to Walmart today to pick up some alka-seltzer plus since I have a bit of a head cold. They were fairly picked clean of cold meds. Had to get the pills instead of the powder ):. Also, oddly, their pain pills, advil/tylenol/aspirin and all the others were completely gone, and of course no hand sanitizer. Lot of people were buying alcohol wipes. Also, for the first time ever, there was a huge line at the doors of people waiting the get the sanitizer wipes to wipe their baskets down.
Click to expand...

I think one of the populations most vulnerable to panic are Costco shoppers.

"Stocking up" and "bulk purchasing" is already endemic in them.

It's like a 2000 pill pak of Centrum is going to protect them from apocalypse. Maybe just shopping in general.
 
Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

KaraBulut said:
1-Mar-2020:

United States:
  • The United States reported their first death. The death occurred at a hospital in Washington state - a man in his 50s
  • Two of the new cases reported yesterday were connected to a long term nursing facility in Washington state raising the possibility an outbreak at the facility. One of the cases is a resident of the facility and the other is a worker at the facility.
  • Of the 71 cases, 44 are connected to the Diamond Princess, 3 are people who came down with virus in China then were moved back to the US and 24 are cases that were diagnosed on US soil.
Click to expand...

The case count is now over 100 in the US.

The concern about the virus spreading in the Washington State long-term care facility appears to be warranted. Washington health officials say that there are 18 cases in their state and that 6 of the 18 patients have died.

California also has 18 cases.

11 states in the US have reported infections for a total of 52 patients. The US cases from the Diamond Princess are reported separately.
 
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