On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[belamyi]

Smallpox, cowpox, horsepox, monkeypox... all orthopoxviruses. All cause similar disease in different species of mammals.

Fortunately, they're not respiratory viruses, so they are not as transmissible as COVID-19, measles and other respiratory viruses.

So what about those info stating that the monkeypox infected respiratory tract, rather than acting through fluids or sexual contact, as seems to have been the case in Madrid?

 

[KaraBulut]

So what about those info stating that the monkeypox infected respiratory tract, rather than acting through fluids or sexual contact, as seems to have been the case in Madrid?

It's still early but so far, the clusters in MSM have presented with pustules in the genital area, resembling chickenpox. This hints that the mechanism of transmission is skin to skin contact while the subjects were naked.

Smallpox was highly adapted to humans and could spread through multiple methods of transmission including respiratory droplets. But even with this adaptation, the R[sub]0[/sub] was estimated to be about 3, that is one infected person would typically infect about 3 other people who were in close contact.

Monkeypox isn't as well adapted to humans and has much lower R[sub]0[/sub] in humans- estimated to be 1 or less than 1. In past outbreaks, most of the household members of the person with monkeypox did not develop infections- the estimated risk of infection was about 1 in 10. By comparison, the newer omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants have an R[sub]0[/sub] greater than 12 with the method of transmission being respiratory droplets.

The only thing that I've seen that does make me worry a bit is that there are reports that one of the infected persons was on a long flight. Several of the people who sat next to him have tested positive. This would be different than past incidents where the method of transmission required prolonged physical contact.

 

[belamyi]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/us/covid-omicron-cases.html

 

[Kulindahr]

Which extrapolated to the Western world, and then to the whole world, would give us what percentages...

Well until Putin changed the food equation by invading Ukraine, most of the world was fine. North Korea's system isolates them more from the world, or it wouldn't be a problem there either.

 

[KaraBulut]

Well until Putin changed the food equation by invading Ukraine, most of the world was fine. North Korea's system isolates them more from the world, or it wouldn't be a problem there either.

That was the DPRK's big mistake- believing that isolation would protect them. Their other big mistake was refusing vaccines offered by other countries.

The omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 is an incredibly contagious respiratory virus. In the unvaccinated, it will kill about 1-2% of the unvaccinated people it infects. It will cause long-haul COVID-19 in about 25% of the unvaccinated.

There was a large military parade in April that probably triggered the outbreak. They have no plan on how to manage their outbreak, nor do they have a plan to vaccinate their population. They are about to pay a big price.

 

[KaraBulut]

US - Weekly Hospital Patients Testing COVID-19 Positive

• 05-Feb - 91,337
• 12-Feb - 91,354
• 19-Feb - 24,686
• 26-Feb - 67,930
• 05-Mar - 30,618
• 12-Mar - 8,990
• 19-Mar - 22,815
• 26-Mar - 4,972 <-2022 low
• 02-Apr - 10,817
• 09-Apr - 11,342
• 16-Apr - 10,480
• 23-Apr - 10,156
• 30-Apr - 15,806
• 07-May - 17,444
• 14-May - 19,723
• 21-May - 20,668

US - Average per day COVID-19 deaths

• 05-Feb - 2,616 <-peak
• 12-Feb - 2,424
• 19-Feb - 2,297
• 26-Feb - 1,841
• 05-Mar - 1,487
• 12-Mar - 1,276
• 19-Mar - 512
• 26-Mar - 789
• 02-Apr - 839
• 09-Apr - 421
• 23-Apr - 373
• 30-Apr - 357
• 07-May - 542
• 14-May - 297 <-2022 low
• 21-May - 363

 

[KaraBulut]

While Americans were whining about having to wear masks and having to get free-of-charge vaccines, the Chinese government was taking a much different approach.

A behind the scenes article about China's "zero CoVID" policy and what living under weeks of quarantine is like:

Shanghai surprise: How I survived 70 days confinement in the world's strictest Covid lockdown [CNN]

...Covid could seemingly pass between the floors and walls and the realization even the strongest measures couldn't stop it was terrifying and shocking. Each time a single person tested positive, the lockdown was extended another 14 days...

I was bused to the National Exhibition and Conference Center, Shanghai's largest quarantine facility -- nicknamed the "lucky clover" due to its shape.
Once host to the world's biggest auto show, it was converted into a makeshift Covid hospital with 50,000 beds, one of many public venues to have been repurposed into what Chinese refer to as "fangcang"...

It was only later that I discovered the true horror lurking behind the "lucky clover": the toilets.

It is hard to describe the odor that results from thousands of people depending on dozens of portable squat toilets day after day...

Then there was the problem of trying to sleep in a place where there is no darkness. Rows of ceiling lights stayed on throughout the night, so I took to wearing two face masks -- one for my mouth and nose and one for my eyes.

Others struggled with the noise; the sound of thousands of people snoring, grinding their teeth, tossing and turning and groaning and grunting in their sleep gave this the feel of a safari...

Mandatory testing. If anyone in the building tests positive, everyone in the building was quarantined for another 14 days:

The isolation centers where people who test positive were taken:

 

[frankfrank]

people do not attent that sort of "concert" for the music... heck, they do not do it at the opera anymore either.

OH, BTW, this was going on in BCN a couple of weeks agos

I have NO intention ever to go at such a clusterfuck of a concert where the actual music is only a trivial part of the utter cacophony and madness. I GO TO HEAR THE MUSIC, and that most definitely is true with an opera as well - but aren't opera (operas?) quiet anyway?

[*]Most of the studies to date were looking at infections in people who were not fully vaccinated. The limited research on vaccinated people so far indicates that being vaccinated reduces the chance of getting PASC by about 50-80% (in other words, if you get COVID-19 after being vaccinated your risk of PASC drops to 5-20%).

Still WAAAAAAAY too high for my tastes. I had COVID the first trimester of May, and thankfully I was one of the lucky 80-95% (I've stayed fully vaccinated).

I would be careful about talking about how the world would benefit from a reduction in population. Have you noticed that the people making those pronouncements seem to assume that they will not be among the ones being culled?

Um, aren't these a lot of the same people who expect to be Raptured, therefore being the precise people who will be culled?

 

[purina]

Cancer Drug Greatly Reduces Deaths in Hospitalized Covid Patients

A new study found that sabizabulin reduced the risk of death by 55 percent, but some experts were cautious about overinterpreting the results.
...
Sabizabulin blocks cells from building microtubules, critical molecular cables that shuttle material from one part of the cell’s interior to another.

The drug was originally developed by researchers at the University of Tennessee to fight cancer because fast-growing tumor cells depend on the microtubules for their rapid growth.

Two years ago, researchers at Veru tried sabizabulin on Covid. They suspected the drug might prevent viral replication, which depends on the microtubule network to bring together the pieces of new viruses.

They also hypothesized that the drug would help Covid patients fight potentially life-threatening lung inflammation. This immune response starts when cells recognize they are infected and release alarm-signal proteins into their surroundings. The cells have to push the alarm molecules along their microtubules to get the word out.

 

[Kulindahr]

Well, we got home test kits. Out of three people where I live, I'm the only one who tested negative.

We're keeping distance, and I have windows and doors open (with screens) to let air flow through better, and as much as possible am spending my time outside in the sunshine.

 

[KaraBulut]

Coming soon to a city near you... BA4 and BA5...

 

[cityboy-stl]

While the Covid level is again surging, I'm also noticing a surge in the level of denial of it and in the refusal to take precautions. It is most distressing and concerning. My hope is this surge burns itself out quickly.

 

[KaraBulut]

While the Covid level is again surging, I'm also noticing a surge in the level of denial of it and in the refusal to take precautions. It is most distressing and concerning. My hope is this surge burns itself out quickly.

I need to do a general update on the current situation. I'll try to work on a stats update for Sunday.

What is currently happening is that the omicron BA.1 and BA.2 surge from Jan-Feb (after holidays) infected a large majority of the school age children and the unvaccinated adults. That brought the infection levels down in Mar-May.

Omicron got into some large unvaccinated pools of people across the globe and it continued to mutate which is how we ended up with even more contagious BA.4 and BA.5 variants.

Above graph shows the omicron variants in circulation by week in the US. The omicron variants BA.1 and BA.2 are in pink and black- you can see that they are now in the minority of infections. The green bars represent BA.4 and BA.5. BA.5 is about 65% of last week's COVID-19 infections and BA.4 is about 16%.

In the US, we have a majority of people who got the vaccines and the vaccines are available to ages down to 6 months. Enough of the unvaccinated either got infected in 2021-2022 or died off to get us to something close to "herd immunity".

Here's the current problem:

1. The antibody levels (specifically neutralizing antibodies) from vaccines drop off after 4-6 months. The antibody levels correlate with lower risk of symptomatic infection. The CDC recommended boosters and unfortunately most people did not get their 3rd or 4th booster, so we have a population with lower antibody levels.
2. The after the vaccine antibody levels drop off, there is a "memory" that exists in the immune system. This low antibody but active memory situation results in a delay period while the immune system gears up to crank out more antibodies to a COVID-19 infection. For those with lowered antibody levels, they may have a few days of symptomatic infection but their risk of severe disease and hospitalization remains significantly low- like >80% lower risk of hospitalization.
3. Here's the bad news: each successive new variant is less responsive to antibodies created from older variants. People who did not get the vaccine and were infected with the earlier strains are the most at risk for re-infection. Those who got the vaccines are showing more effective responses to the new variant and their symptoms are less and recovery is faster.
4. Holidays in the US seem to precede surges, so July 4th and vacations are likely the source of the current surge, along with people no longer being as careful with masks and distancing measures.

What I've seen in practice is that people who have kept up with their vaccines are having flu-like illness including fevers and 1-4 days of symptoms. I saw one person who was current on his vaccines and had omicron in January who tested positive in July again and he had a fever of ~100F, sneezing, sore throat and a cough for about 2 days but had recovered fully by day 5. I think that's probably going to be the typical case for those who are current on their vaccines but who contract the latest variants.

The next big surge will likely be in September after Labor Day and just in time for school to start.

The NIH was skeptical about the need for a new version of the vaccine to create neutralizing antibodies and memory immunity that is better adapted to omicron. The assumption now is that the next generation of vaccines will be similar to flu vaccines- they will be multivalent- i.e. the vaccines will contain information to produce antibodies to multiple variants. Moderna and Pfizer will continue to update the vaccines with the newer variants to produce neutralizing antibodies that are more specific to the newer variants.

 

[Rickrock]

Thanks for the update. I was going to hold off until fall to get my second booster (4th shot). I am having some doubts now, but still think that I want to wait until they produce vaccines with the latest variants.

 

[cabinfever]

I had to have a specialized test called the PCR Covid test last week and it had to be 48-72 hours before a pulmonary appointment.

 

[KaraBulut]

I had to have a specialized test called the PCR Covid test last week and it had to be 48-72 hours before a pulmonary appointment.

PCR is the most specific test since it is a molecular test that looks for the viral RNA.

PCRs don't look specifically for live virus, though. Because it's looking for RNA, there can be positive results after the infection has resolved. There are people who don't have active COVID-19 infections but still have old virus fragments in their nose and throat that persist for days or sometimes weeks after the infection resolved.

It's a little overkill but given that the specialist is looking at the respiratory system, I can understand why they're being extra careful.

 

[KaraBulut]

Thanks for the update. I was going to hold off until fall to get my second booster (4th shot). I am having some doubts now, but still think that I want to wait until they produce vaccines with the latest variants.

The current guidelines are spacing boosters at a minimum of 4 month intervals. If it's been 4 months since your last booster and you're over 50, you are eligible for the 2nd booster. So far, only about 28% of the eligible population has gotten the second shot.

If you time this out, you would want your antibody levels to be high in September (Labor Day, school starting up again) and January (after November/December holidays). Antibody levels peak 7-21 days after the vaccine. If you get your 2nd booster now, you'll have coverage through the December and you will be eligible again for a booster (if available) in late Nov-early Dec.

I think what is about to happen is that they're going to open up the current booster to people 12 to 50, too. Currently, it's only recommended for immunocompromised people 12-50.

For the multivalent booster, Pfizer's studies of their bivalent vaccine (which has the current vaccine plus BA.1) are showing good response to the vaccine and antibodies that are more effective against the newer omicron variants (including BA.4 and BA.5). If everything stays on track, it should get FDA approval by year end.

 

[belamyi]

https://beteve.cat/societat/nou-avis-alerta-oms-covid-tardor-hivern-dificils/

 

[cabinfever]

PCR is the most specific test since it is a molecular test that looks for the viral RNA.

PCRs don't look specifically for live virus, though. Because it's looking for RNA, there can be positive results after the infection has resolved. There are people who don't have active COVID-19 infections but still have old virus fragments in their nose and throat that persist for days or sometimes weeks after the infection resolved.

It's a little overkill but given that the specialist is looking at the respiratory system, I can understand why they're being extra careful.

Ahhh - I was thinking DNA is what they said. I remember them telling me that covid can hide in your body and can only be detected with this PCR test - luckily it was negative and the pulmonary test was a success but they sent me to the ER with low blood pressure so it wasn't a total win for me. I was afraid they were going to keep me again in the hospital but they pumped fluid into me and had me drink alot of water and then they let me go- PHEW!

 

[KaraBulut]

Week ending 16-July-2022:

Global COVID-19 Weekly Mortality/Morbidity

• Global Cases reported: 562,257,912 (up from 555,088,719 / 1.3%) - *‬*7,169,193 new cases this week
• Global Deaths: 6,369,213 (up from 6,350,765) - **18,448 people died this week

US COVID-19 Weekly Mortality/Morbidity

• Cases reported in the US - 89,524,149 (up from 88,572,807 / 1.1%), 951,342 new cases, 13.3% of world's new cases were in the US
• Deaths reported in the US - 1,023,788 deaths, 2,936 deaths this week , 15.9% of the world's reported deaths this week were in the US
• Hospitalizations reported in the US - 47,529 new hospitalizations (up from 32,872 last week) - 4,966,084 Americans have been hospitalized for COVID-19 since Jan, 2020

US Vaccination Weekly Stats

• Approx number of US doses distributed - 779,563,765 (up from 774,307,105 / +5,256,660) - 76.9% US doses have been administered
  
  Total US residents vaccinated
• 1st dose: - 260,728,030 (up from 260,327,743 / +400,287) - 78.5% of US population
• 2nd dose: - 222,682,315 (up from 222,455,652 / +226,663) - 67.1% of US population
• 3rd dose: - 107,004,061 (up from 106,615,227 / +388,834) - 48.1% of US population
  
  US residents over age 5 vaccinated
• 1st dose: - 260,169,337 (up from 259,904,888 / +264,449) - 83.3% of US population > 5 yo
• 2nd dose: - 222,602,438 (up from 222,376,296 / +226,142) - 71.3% of US population > 5 yo
• 3rd dose: - 107,002,675 (up from 106,613,951 / +388,724) - 48.1% of US population > 5 yo
  
  US residents over age 12 vaccinated
• 1st dose: - 249,581,282 (up from 249,367,899 / +213,383) - 88.0% of US population > 12 yo
• 2nd dose: - 213,971,909 (up from 213,782,777 / +189,132) - 75.5% of US population > 12 yo
• 3rd dose: - 106,243,524 (up from 105,921,750 / +321,774) - 49.7% of US population > 12 yo
  
  US residents over age 65 vaccinated
• 1st dose: - 57,269,410 (up from 57,230,995 / +38,415) - 95.0% of US population >65 yo
• 2nd dose: - 50,240,887 (up from 50,196,834 / +44,053) - 91.7% of US population >65 yo
• 3rd dose: - 35,358,851 (up from 35,288,070 / +70,781) - 70.4% of US population >65 yo
• 4th dose: - 12,451,941 (up from 12,137,078 / +314,863) - 35.2% of US population >65 yo

Coronavirus weekly cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US: 89,524,149 (up from 88,572,807 / +951,342/1.1%) - 1,023,788 deaths (+2,936) - avg daily: cases (+135,906) / deaths (+419)
• Italy : 20,145,859 (up from 19,357,938 / +787,921/4.1%) - 169,925 deaths (+863) - avg daily: cases (+112,560) / deaths (+123)
• Japan: 10,318,639 (up from 9,639,833 / +678,806/7.0%) - 31,598 deaths (+182) - avg daily: cases (+96,972) / deaths (+26)
• Germany : 29,692,989 (up from 29,022,265 / +670,724/2.3%) - 142,533 deaths (+671) - avg daily: cases (+95,818) / deaths (+96)
• France : 32,881,809 (up from 32,318,670 / +563,139/1.7%) - 151,454 deaths (+398) - avg daily: cases (+80,448) / deaths (+57)
• Brazil: 33,290,266 (up from 32,874,501 / +415,765/1.3%) - 675,295 deaths (+1,741) - avg daily: cases (+59,395) / deaths (+249)
• Australia : 8,773,576 (up from 8,488,272 / +285,304/3.4%) - 10,689 deaths (+375) - avg daily: cases (+40,758) / deaths (+54)
• South Korea : 18,761,757 (up from 18,511,845 / +249,912/1.4%) - 24,742 deaths (+99) - avg daily: cases (+35,702) / deaths (+14)
• Ukraine: 5,289,844 (up from 5,040,518 / +249,326/4.9%) - 116,424 deaths (+3,965) - avg daily: cases (+35,618) / deaths (+566) - Ukraine did not report stats since Feb
• UK : 23,282,710 (up from 23,088,054 / +194,656/0.8%) - 182,262 deaths (+864) - avg daily: cases (+27,808) / deaths (+123)
• Mexico: 6,439,616 (up from 6,249,983 / +189,633/3.0%) - 326,491 deaths (+414) - avg daily: cases (+27,090) / deaths (+59)
• India: 43,750,599 (up from 43,622,651 / +127,948/0.3%) - 525,709 deaths (+281) - avg daily: cases (+18,278) / deaths (+40)
• Turkey: 15,297,539 (up from 15,180,444 / +117,095/0.8%) - 99,088 deaths (+31) - avg daily: cases (+16,728) / deaths (+4)
• Spain : 13,090,476 (up from 12,973,615 / +116,861/0.9%) - 109,348 deaths (+618) - avg daily: cases (+16,694) / deaths (+88)
• New Zealand: 1,506,585 (up from 1,435,718 / +70,867/4.9%) - 1,764 deaths (+152) - avg daily: cases (+10,124) / deaths (+22)
• Israel: 4,508,457 (up from 4,445,422 / +63,035/1.4%) - 11,168 deaths (+100) - avg daily: cases (+9,005) / deaths (+14)
• Switzerland : 3,861,756 (up from 3,805,774 / +55,982/1.5%) - 13,857 deaths (+15) - avg daily: cases (+7,997) / deaths (+2)
• Belgium: 4,349,050 (up from 4,294,880 / +54,170/1.3%) - 32,051 deaths (+74) - avg daily: cases (+7,739) / deaths (+11)
• Canada : 4,026,044 (up from 3,978,349 / +47,695/1.2%) - 43,530 deaths (+1,355) - avg daily: cases (+6,814) / deaths (+194)
• Netherlands : 8,381,920 (up from 8,338,213 / +43,707/0.5%) - 23,050 deaths (+20) - avg daily: cases (+6,244) / deaths (+3)
• Romania: 2,963,934 (up from 2,927,187 / +36,747/1.3%) - 65,813 deaths (+58) - avg daily: cases (+5,250) / deaths (+8)
• Argentina: 9,426,171 (up from 9,394,326 / +31,845/0.3%) - 129,145 deaths (+36) - avg daily: cases (+4,549) / deaths (+5)
• Iran : 7,278,478 (up from 7,249,976 / +28,502/0.4%) - 141,499 deaths (+60) - avg daily: cases (+4,072) / deaths (+9)
• Russia: 18,220,633 (up from 18,192,863 / +27,770/0.2%) - 374,147 deaths (+288) - avg daily: cases (+3,967) / deaths (+41)
• China: 2,190,810 (up from 2,163,876 / +26,934/1.2%) - 14,668 deaths (+28) - avg daily: cases (+3,848) / deaths (+4)
• Columbia: 6,223,497 (up from 6,198,848 / +24,649/0.4%) - 140,365 deaths (+163) - avg daily: cases (+3,521) / deaths (+23)
• Lebanon: 1,138,458 (up from 1,121,054 / +17,404/1.6%) - 10,487 deaths (+14) - avg daily: cases (+2,486) / deaths (+2)
• Ireland: 1,628,745 (up from 1,614,631 / +14,114/0.9%) - 7,571 deaths (+35) - avg daily: cases (+2,016) / deaths (+5)
• Poland: 6,032,475 (up from 6,022,227 / +10,248/0.2%) - 116,470 deaths (+17) - avg daily: cases (+1,464) / deaths (+2)
• Sweden: 2,528,166 (up from 2,523,404 / +4,762/0.2%) - 19,203 deaths (+59) - avg daily: cases (+680) / deaths (+8)
• South Africa: 3,999,751 (up from 3,997,269 / +2,482/0.1%) - 101,918 deaths (+42) - avg daily: cases (+355) / deaths (+6)