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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Rzzzia also lost a lot of the young to fleeing the country in 2022, before they effectively closed the borders,

I don't remember the source of the article but I read one last week where demographic studies show rrrZZZia in deep trouble in not too many years because of their endless wars throwing away their people.

It is beleived that besides just naked cowardice preventing full scale conscription, it is a recognition of the impact on the western Rus population particularly that has the Kremlin buying North Koreans for their meat grinder.
Watching the events in Syria, it is apparent that the fall of the Assad regime was, in part, because Russia couldn't maintain another military front. After a decade of bombing the shit out of Syrians, creating another generation of enemies, they pulled ships off the Syrian coast, abandoned their military bases in Syria and then took in Assad as a political refugee.

The Russian pattern of putting generals on the front lines and then throwing poorly trained bodies at the front comes with a high casualty rate. It's also expensive- they are paying big bonuses to get more bodies to enlist and then having to replace the new meat with another round of conscripts, prisoners and foreign nationals.

Russians are used to terrible conditions, but one of the most underreported stories is the spiraling Russian economy and its impact on the Russian populace. Russia is spending one-third of their budget on their wars. Death benefits for fallen soldiers is 6% of their budget!

In spite of Tucker Carlson's claims about how great Russia is, their interest rates are headed upward to the low 20% range, as their central bank tries to tamp down inflation, which is still in the double digits. Unless something changes, like Trump's cronies trying to undo the sanctions on Russia, the situation is going to reach a slow boil as they head into winter.

 
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Trump will get the sanctions lifted on Day 2.

He has to end this war and gets a big payday from Putin for getting sanctions on oil lifted...although the countries still buying their oil aren't going to be interested in seeing the price caps come off.
 
Trump will get the sanctions lifted on Day 2.

He has to end this war and gets a big payday from Putin for getting sanctions on oil lifted...although the countries still buying their oil aren't going to be interested in seeing the price caps come off.
If he lifts the sanctions, it will drop the global price of oil. Russia has benefited by the higher price of oil since Feb, 2022 when the war started.
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That benefits the US but will put further financial strain on the Russians, who are sending oil to India, where it is refined and rebranded to get around the current sanctions.
 
It is one of the reasons he is looking to impose tariffs on Canadian oil. He is counting on cheap oil from rrrZZZia.
 
Rzzzia also lost a lot of the young to fleeing the country in 2022, before they effectively closed the borders,

I don't remember the source of the article but I read one last week where demographic studies show rrrZZZia in deep trouble in not too many years because of their endless wars throwing away their people.

It is beleived that besides just naked cowardice preventing full scale conscription, it is a recognition of the impact on the western Rus population particularly that has the Kremlin buying North Koreans for their meat grinder.

I have no evidence for this beyond their behavior but I believe the reason Putin has avoided full scale conscription and imports Korean soldiers to help fight his war is because with a low birth he knows those dead soldiers will never be replaced and the Russian population will fall even further faster. If I apply the same reasoning to the Ukraine the reason they still refuse to draft men under 25 (for most of this war it was 27) is the same, they too have a below replacement birth rate and their dead soldiers will never be replaced either and their population will also fall further faster.

It’s possible that the coming shrinking of populations is having an effect on how wars are being fought today. And if I’m even partially right then it will also affect Chinese strategy concerning Taiwan. Culturally China is still a Confucian society with family at the center and not only will dead Chinese soldiers never be replaced but because of their prior one child policy each dead soldier is the end of his family’s line.

Add it all up and it means no invasion of Taiwan, a blockade is the war plan they will follow.
 
There is a kind of crazy nihilism embedded in the Kremlin's relentless pursuit of the Donbass for the resources to feed the insatiable appetite of the oligarchs and western rrrZZZianz.

and this is weird and horrifying and fascinating all at the same time....

It is like no one has looked ahead 2 generations and gamed out what is supposed to come of all of this.

Diminishing birthrates, declining numbers of (Rus) desirable males and females to breed the next Romanov remiscent Ruski-Mir population...what the fuck is it all even for?

The more the new brand of superior 'Aryan' genes is destroyed in these stupid resource wars, the less ther is a need to grab and hold them...except for the 1% of the 1%.

And while people are staggeringly stupid, eventually, time and again, they show us that when they are starving, they are willing to eat the rich.

China will come to this realization later rather than sooner because of that vast bulge of population not destroyed by famine, war or simple demographic modelling.

So I would expect that the war on Taiwan and the China Sea will be the one they want to fight to ride out the population crest.

I still expect China to simply annex large sections of rrrXXXia in the next few decades and notice today that they are taking over uranium plants in Kryghistan...expect them to look for lebensraum.






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Russian general go boom boom. Ukraine takes a lesson from the Israeli playbook.

Igor Kirillov, a 54 year old senior general in the Russian armed forces, was accused by Ukraine of using banned chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces. The Russian media is describing as "the Head of Radiation and Chemical Protection Troops of Russia ".

The doors swing open, and two figures emerge from a nondescript building. A scooter is propped against the front wall. A man identified by Russia as Igor Kirillov, a high-ranking general, takes a few steps forward.

Then the screen, framed by the dash of a car, erupts into a flash of white.

A video that an official with Ukraine’s security service shared with The New York Times and other news outlets, recorded from the interior of a car, appears to show the moment that an explosion killed General Kirillov and an aide as they walked out onto a snowy Moscow street.

General Kirillov oversaw the Russian military’s nuclear and chemical weapons protection forces before he was assassinated on Tuesday.

A military aide accompanying Kiirillov was also killed in the blast.

The assassination of Kirillov follows Ukraine's assassination of senior Russian naval officer Valery Trankovsky in November. Trankovsky was killed in a car bombing in Crimea.

 
How would Russian oil even get to the U.S.?
It is about the global supply.

Rzzzia producing more cheap oil to sell in more markets would theoretically drive the world price down.
 
It is about the global supply.
In spite of the sanctions, China is buying about 1/2 of Russian crude oil output and India is buying about 1/3 of their output. India has been allowed to skirt the sanctions without punishment from the US.

China ships a lot of plastics and injection mold plastic products to the US. Since those products are made from crude oil, it's easy to guess where most of the plastics in your home originated from: Russian crude oil
 
Hmmm.... what's that new flavor in the sausage? Korean?

North Korean troops are being slaughtered by the hundreds, perhaps thousands in the Ukrainian meat grinder. I'm not sure what the strategy was to send inexperienced young men who spoke no Russian to the front. At least their last days were spent browsing the internet and jacking off to porn.

One thousand, one hundred North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded in Russia's war with Ukraine, and Pyongyang may be preparing to deploy more North Korean soldiers to the region, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Monday. The information follows a report by Seoul's spy agency last week that said at least 100 North Korean soldiers had been killed since entering combat in December.

Ukrainian propaganda describes the North Korean losses as being "trainloads of wounded".

An intercepted phone call released by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Dec. 18 suggests North Korean troops are suffering hundreds of casualties fighting for Russia in Kursk Oblast.

In the call, a nurse at a Moscow hospital tells her husband, a soldier fighting in Kursk Oblast, that wounded fighters are being brought in by the trainload.

"Yesterday there was a train with about 100 people. Today there are 120 — that's already (about) 200," she says.

"How many more are there? God only knows," she adds.

She also claims that wards are being emptied to make way for the North Korean wounded, and hospital staff have trouble communicating with them and are not allowed to speak to them in English.
 
Another under-the-radar story: Russian ships that are carrying cargo seem to mysteriously sinking.

A Russian cargo ship called Ursa Major sank in the Mediterranean Sea overnight after an explosion ripped through its engine room and two of its crew are still missing, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday.

The vessel, built in 2009, was controlled by Oboronlogistika, a company that is part of the Russian Defence Ministry's military construction operations, which had previously said it was en route to the Russian far eastern port of Vladivostok with two giant port cranes lashed to its deck.

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saw this...and that ostensibly was to be part of the evacuation of troops and equipment for Syria

rrrZZia must have the largest ship to submarine fleet in the world by now.
 
And it looks like the Russian military might have shot down another passenger jet, possibly believing it to be a Ukrainian drone.

Early indications suggest a Russian anti-aircraft system may have downed an Azerbaijan Airlines jet, a US official told CNN as Azerbaijan held a day of mourning for the dozens of victims of the disaster.

The signs point to a Russian system striking Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 before it crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, the US official said Thursday.

This is the first time the US has offered an assessment of Wednesday’s crash of the passenger jet that killed at least 38 of the 67 people on board.

If the early indications are ultimately confirmed, it may be a case of mistaken identity, the US official said, where poorly trained Russian units have fired negligently against Ukraine’s use of drones.
 
And of course, the Kremlin monsters used Christmas day to fire missiles and drones at civilian targets.

And this is the regime that Trump will support and normalize after January 20, 2025.

This is what the TrumpCo. intends America to become. Allies of murderous, autocracies and enemies of western democracies.

 
So Rzzzia is sabotaging Baltic sea infrastructure with their shadow fleet and while one ship has been seized, others remain at large, ferrying black market oil and attempting to do damage to communications.

Meanwhile it is just a waiting game now, isn't it? With Trump and the GQP in power, Ukrasine will be left to Europe to help defend...but Putin has assured rrrZZZnz that eveerything is 'fine' in his New year's address.

“He (Putin) seems to believe that he has won the war... with the Democrats’ loss in the U.S. elections, he’s waiting for Trump. Trump is practically seen as the mascot for the end of the old world order and the demise of the liberal democratic ideology.”
-Mikhail Zygar
 
Almost 800K


I was explaining to a 14 year old at dinner on Sunday how the rrrZZZn oligarchs would easily see 1 million rrrZZZnz die if it meant that they get to keep the several trillion dollars worth of mineral resources in the Donbas, Azov and Black Sea.

That that is all it is about.

That capitalist billionaires only see their share of the wealth at the end of the day. They don't care about glory or honour or patriotism. It is now simply a struggle between fascist warlords around the globe to make them fabulously wealthy in the end days.


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Rzzia isn't just limiting itself to terrorism in Europe and the middle east.

Looks like they want to take down passenger jets flying into Canada as well.

 
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Photo source: OSINTtechical. Cockpit photo from Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 Fulcrum slinging a US-supplied AGM-88 HARM towards a Russian radar.

Ukraine can now launch missiles against Russian air defenses from 30 miles out.
 
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