Survivor China

[falconfan]

I didn't realize that the rule had changed and that you had to announce you were using it before the votes were read.

 

[falconfan]

They changed it last season though. Jeff announced to the cast in one of the episodes.

Then it may not be that bad of an idea but I'd still advise him of waiting at least a little longer. James is one of the few people with genuine loyalty to him and he'll probably loose one of the non-strength based challenges that they toss in there. Bu tit makes more sense to me now. If it were solid 7-2 I'd say definitely do it but it's more like 2 +2 +1 +1 +1 vs. 2. Any change in plans could make the chips fall all over the place.

 

[jspk]

those idiots. james is the strongest player. now he has 2 idols. seems like he'll win for sure.

 

[falconfan]

I don't know guys. I would wait one more week to get rid of PG. With James gone Courtney will be all "Why didn't wee get rid of John-Robert! I don't like John-Robert! You said we had to stick together! I can't understand simple game play! I don't like you." Then she'll click up with PG, Eric, and Frosti and then it'll be all tied up next week. OR EVEN WORSE CASE SCENARIO.... they THINK they're blindsiding him. PG scurries over and tells him. He uses the idol and PG and Erik's votes become the majority and Todd winds up basically engineering his own ouster. OR it could be PG, Erik, Frosti, grab Courtney and James or James and Denise when James realizes that his old tribe is plotting against him.

Jean-Robert was right about one thing... PG is dangerous to them. She's a schemer. I think this really could backfire majorly and it would be silly to assume James MUST be going to win immunity every week. Ozzy kicked Yul and Adams ass in immunity challenges but he was much smaller than them physically and it was RAFE of all people who dominated immunity in Guatemala. I just... I think it's a lot more of a complex situation then he's a threat get rid of him. Yeah he's a threat but I think if he made it to the final THREE (which it looks like it's going to be this week because Jamie was the first Jury member. If they did two that would mean they have 8 jurors and they can't let the final tribal tie) is he gaurenteed to win? I'm not sure. I just think when people over simplify the game they wind up screwing themselves. That's just what got Jamie and PG in their current predicament. They over-simplified.

 

[falconfan]

It doesn't behoove ANYONE ELSE BUT JAMES to wait, Falconfan. If someone else gets Individual Immunity next week (perhaps darling Frosti again?) take that as a sign and boot James before he starts crashing through Immunity challenges and wins his way to the end. He would be VERY difficult to beat in a final vote so it's best to get rid of him now.

Plus if they wait, James will be more likely to sniff out a "Vote James" plan and he can just use the Idol on the one or two weeks he doesn't win Individual Immunity. No. If he actually loses Immunity next week, tell him Peigh Gee or Eric is the target (which he will believe at this point) and take him out - eliminating the toughest competitor and the guy with two idols all in one move.

Look what we saw two seasons ago... a choice between Yul and Ozzy. Strategic gameplay vs. Challenge wins. Jury went for Yul. I think Todd has a legit chance of beating James. They're all aware of the fact he's a heavy hitter and that he's been pulling the strings. He could very easily argue that James is only there because of him and because he found the idols for him. Although I feel like Courtney and Jean-Robert would be more bitter towards Todd than James. I'm not saying I can say what the right decision is before seeing the episode but I do think it's more complicated than it seems. AND I HOPE TO GOD Todd doesn't bring this up BEFORE the immunity challenge.

I actually think PG's "power play" will be suggesting they get rid of James to Todd and Amanda. And that's why we see Todd and Amanda talking about it in confessional mode but don't actually see them plotting it in the promo. (I think...)

 

[falconfan]

Falconfan - I think you're clouded by your desire to see James make it to the end. Nothing wrong with that, mind you. But let's not confuse what you want to see happen with what's best for the other players. Of course anything could happen, but it's always best to try to get rid of the better competitors first.

And it's not just that James could dominate in challenges, it's that James also has TWO Immunity idols. Hello?

Also, James is way more well liked than Ozzy. His whole tribe could vote for him if he made it to the end. Plus Yul and Ozzy came down to a 5-4 vote - it was VERY tight. AND the only reason Yul won was because he made a deal with Adam earlier on - Adam said he'd vote for Yul on the jury if Yul got rid of Jonathan before Adam or Parvati. Adam admitted on the Reunion Show that had he not made that deal, he would have voted for Ozzy.

I don't want James to win. I liked Aaron and then I moved to the Todd/Amanda train. I don't dislike James but he's not my favorite at the moment. I honestly think Frosti may turn out to be a much larger threat than James because individual competitions are seldom based on brute strength. They're based on all around ability, speed, balance, intelligence, and to some degree strength. But even when it's a strength challenge in the individual contests it's always proportional to their own weight. I think it's really easy to over simplify situations in Survivor. I think the best time for Them to bump James off would be when there's only one yellow team member left. Courtney, John-Robert, and Frosti are all wildcards in play and at the very least they have something stable with James, Denise, Amanda, and Todd now. Coutney doesn't like Todd and Amanda. John-Robert thinks he has an alliance with them but he's as trustworthy as a snake. Frosti is showing loyalty but he must know that he's low on their social totem. I think when you have stability working in your favor maybe you shouldn't disrupt it unless you're sure you can maintain that stability. Courtney is an idiot. She's totally going to make her moves based on emotion. If I were them I would hope it goes down as follows: PG, James, Frosti( when 1st non-immune from here) Erik, Courtney, John-Robert, Denise. and Denise and John-Robert could even be reversed.

 

[iggypop]

Todd is going to easily win this season...he's the only smart player, and everyone else is just hangin out with Todd and going along with Todd.

Unless people figure out that Todd is the one to beat, it's just a matter of time before they get voted off.

 

[falconfan]

I started off thinking Todd was a smart player. After making one of the stupidest moves ever, I don't think so anymore. Even if he had James as a number, he would still make it farther with the immunity and throwing the challenge to get rid of Sherea anyways.He could easily go next episode if PG's plan goes that way.

I feel the same way. I have no idea why he gave away that immunity idol. It just wasn't that smart. And why tell Denise and Courtney? And at the very least when it all went south he should've asked James for one of the two idols. James may not have obliged but he should've asked and more than once if necessary.

 

[falconfan]

Frosti is not a big threat at all. He won a challenge that no one knew about. If everyone knew to pay attention to detail then he may not have won and I don't think there will be any more trick immunity challenges. Frosti did not perform well in any of the challenges when he was on the Zhan Hu tribe. Sure it's a group challenge but the group challenges have individual parts and he didn't do much to really take his team closer to winning. James stood out on all of the challenges and was sometimes the reason Fei Long won.

In many past Survivor seasons, when you wait until there's only one outsider left, that's when the alliance breaks and takes out one of their own. That one person left isn't seen as a threat anymore because they're alone and have no one. People know they will need to gain majority to pick off their own alliance and they'll use the extra person as a number to be safe and get farther. James will know he's possibly in danger when there's only one left. If there's 2 left then he'd think he's 100% safe.

Also you said James seemed like a loyal guy. Earl seemed like a loyal guy and stayed loyal until he had to get rid of Yaoman. It was smart not to take Yaoman to the end because he would've lost. He didn't break his loyalty until he had to. James seems like a smart player and would form another alliance and break his loyalty if he needs to. He knows it's a game. Instead of what Todd wants: Todd/Amanda/Courtney/Denise/James, James would probably include Denise/Jean-Robert in his plans since they think James is their strongest alliance.

I definitely don't think you can just say that Frosti isn't a threat at all. That's silly. If you look at Survivor histroy immunity hogs are not always the youngest, fittest, male. Kelly in the first season one, Darra got it most in Pearl Islands... "threats" should not be looked at purely from a physical angel. For instance I believe PG is WAY more of a threat than Erik. I mean she came up with that whole throw the challenge fan but it was Jamie who wound up falling on that sword. She's much more mobile and manipulative than Erik even if he's physically stronger. And I think James would feel secure enough not to use it the following week either, he still believes he's got Erik, PG, Frosti, and Jean Robert below him on the totem poll. If he stayed a week and thought he was three away from needing to use it he'd be just as likely not to use it as this week. Honestly though I think it would be in Todds best interest to us PG to get him to actually play an idol and then vote for PG anyway. That way that's one idol gone and Todd can point to hte votes and say dude we didn't betray him.

 

[falconfan]

Frosi is a threat yes, but James has TWO FRICKING IMMUNITY IDOLS!!

Get him out of there NOW!

I still think Todd can get him to give one up or at very least use it without needing to.

Side not AMANDA should make a final three deal with James soon that way if he does wind up taking immunity every week he'll chose her over Courtney and Todd. (I'm assuming he'll take Denise). She won't stand a chance in hell of beating him but a back up can't help.

I get the problem. I really do. If they have the chance next week they may never have one again. But you can't use immunity Idol in the final four so that's gonna be a win or die challenge for him because whatever other three people are there will kick his ass out. Which brings me to another thought... lets say Todd gets rid of James and the final four is who... him, Amanda, Denise, and Courtney.... his as is grass if he doesn't win. The only reason Earl made it into the final three is because Yao Man was there to deflect attention. (Which is why I don't like this final three format. It makes the game so much less strategic. A group of three can dominate from 5 on. AND a good player doesn't really stand a chance to make it against 3 people who know they're a good player. When it goes to two people someone might hold on to a stronger player in hopes that they'd bring them to the final two but this three stuff is bull)

I'll break it down this way. Going after James is a no brainer for Jean-Robert, Courtney, Frosti, Erik, and PG

I still think a maybe for Todd

Just plain bad for Denise

And Amanda... though I love her can just go wander into the woods and take a nap. Because I'm pretty sure she's gonna make it to the end and then get no votes in most scenarios.

 

[nitrogen]

No more hotties in this show for me.

SOOOO PISSED that they got rid of Aaron.

 

[falconfan]

When it gets down to the final 4 then it's the final immunity. He could probably beat any of them. Do you think Todd/Amanda/Courtney/Denise can beat him?

The final competition is almost always purely about will power. I mean who expected Danielle to beat Aras and Terri on Cook Islands?

 

[falconfan]

But it can also include muscle power endurance. Like last year's final challenge which required upper body and upper arm strength to hold on the longest. Not surprisingly, the most muscular guy left (Dreamz) won it.

Falconfan, there is just absolutely no logical reason for anyone in this game to let a guy like that get to F4. Of course Frosti and Todd and others are a threat -- EVERYONE is a potential threat. But you have to get out the obvious ones first and James -- with two idols and a likable personality -- is just way too much of a risk to let him slide a few weeks.

We're not the only ones who think so. The Survivor fans at FORT and Television Without Pity have been saying the same thing for weeks. Everyone pretty much agrees that Todd allowing James to get TWO idols was stupid.

Oh I'm not saying I'd let him get to the final four but I'm saying it's not doomsday if he does because he could very easily get screwed in the end. They need to get at least one idol out of his hands but I don't think they necessarily need to get rid of him to do that and that they could use his vote. I mean lets say they all vote James thinking he won't use the idol, PG and Erik vote Todd, James vote for Erik/PG and USES the idol.... bye bye Todd. In order to ensure the plan goes without a hitch they need to rely at least partially on the PG and Erik... and I don't know if that's smart. I stick to saying it's best if he does next week but we'll have to see how things actually shape up during the episode

 

[falconfan]

I think PG's "Power play" is going to be for her, Erik, Frosti, Todd, and Amanda to vote out James. Because in the clip she says "there's five of us here" meaning she's looking for the majority of the vote not something as complicated as the above described event.

 

[falconfan]

Hmm, this is a pickle. There IS a way Todd can orchestrate this but it would take some REAL craftsmanship and he has proven to be more flash and no substance in the strategy area.

Problem:

1) 9 people are left, so voting out James requires at least 4 votes (assuming the other votes are split 2 & 3 between two other people)

2) James has two idols so you don't want him to get wind of the plan, which means you need to limit who you tell -- this eliminates Denise (James' closest friend) and possibly JR from your secret plan

3) PG and Erik could have a vested interest in ratting you out to James so you may not want to let them in on it either

4) this automatically leaves you with only Todd, Amanda, Courtney and Froti, which is enough to boot James but ONLY if the other 5 votes are split 2 & 3. If all 5 go to the same person, that person goes home, you lose one for your team and this group of 5 becomes an alliance against you. If even 4 votes are the same out of the remaining 5, this forces a tie that James could easily break in his favor.

Solution:

1) Get the 4 votes to take out James:

i) Todd and Amanda know they can trust each other so that's two votes right there.

ii) But Courtney is a problem because she could vote for JR. HOWEVER, Courtney came around last week and stuck with the group to boot Jaime, so she's not immovable. To secure Courtney, Todd and Amanda need to go to her and say, "Look. We all agree James is a huge threat with two idols. Let's take him out this week and we promise to vote out JR for you next week." If she did it for nothing last week, she'll do it for something this tempting this week.

iii) Frosti knows he can be picked off as well and is willing to side with his new tribe (he voted Jaime out) to ensure his safety, so Todd, Amanda and Courtney (who Frosti is now close to) need to assure him he is part of their core group and must vote with them to take James out. He'll do it. Remember ALL these people have a vested interest in taking out a likable, strong Immunity threat with two idols.

2) Split the remaining votes into 2 & 3:

i) Todd, Amanda (perhaps with Frosti in tow to add some credibility) need to tell PG and Erik that they won't get picked off if they help them take out JR this week. They must also be instructed NOT to tell James or Denise about this plan because James is close to JR, and Denise is close to James, and if James knows he may try to save his buddy by using one of the idols. And hey, they don't need those three votes anyway with (supposedly) everyone else voting for JR. Since PG and Erik have no relationship with JR, they are less likely to try to align with him and EVERYONE knows how hated JR is so it will seem credible and even a good move for PG and Erik. Use Frosti as a double agent - let him work on his old tribemates and tell them "privately" that Todd and Amanda are more likely to work with the three of them to take out other threats after this week because PG and Erik don't seem like threats. If PG and Erik think they have a future offense strategy against James and Denise (with Todd and Amanda), they are less likely to form a defense against Todd and Amanda (with James and Denise). Because if you think you have a choice to align with either faction, you're more likely to choose the one that doesn't seem likely to kick your ass later on with stronger players (James and Denise) and two idols in tow. So now PG and Erik are voting for JR. Which is 2 votes in one blind direction.

ii) Todd and Amanda tell James and JR that they are cool with them and hey, they even got Courtney to vote for Jaime last week, not JR. This week they want to take out Erik/PG (either one, doesn't matter. Let's say PG since JR is so set on her it seems). BUT they don't want to alert PG because she's crafty and might try to stir something up with Courtney and Frosti, so best to keep mum. James and JR agree, Denise is on board too. So now those three are voting for PG. That's 3 votes in another blind direction.

Tribal Council: James gets bounced with 4 votes and no warning to play his idols.

3) Neutralize the fallout: Tell JR/Denise and PG/Erikc separately after the vote that the plan switched at the last minute because James seemed like too much of a threat to keep in the game. Denise is sweet, gullible enough, and has no other strong allies besides James. She can be wooed back into the fold and PG and Erik still have a vested interest in helping them boot JR the next week because 1) It's not them and 2) neither of them was voted off this week anyway despite the switched plan.

And so JR remains ripe for picking off next week, as Courtney was promised.

Caveat: This only works if neither James, JR, nor PG win Immunity next week. For PG that's possible, but James is a strong challenger, and JR knows he could be on the chopping block. It works well if Frosti pulls out another victory.

Change of plans # 1: If James wins, the whole plan is shit and they may as well boot JR and lessen James' allies (and try again for him next week)

Change of plans # 2: If PG wins, then they keep the plan, but tell James, JR and Denise that they are voting out Erik.

Change of plans # 3: If JR wins, they can try to pull PG and Erik into the fold by promising to go after JR next week and keeping them safe for two weeks (using Frosti as a double agent) and hey, why would you guys wanna keep Two Idols James around longer anyway? But of course this incurs the risk of PG selling them out to James. Basically JR winning Immunity is the worst case scenario for them because it makes it difficult to safely boot James with minimal risk, and it precludes taking out JR this week easily and leaving James for next week.

You did a GREAT job breaking it down which shows exactly why I think they should wait a week. It's SO complex and it requires things to work out so well. PG is devious (and I don't use that in a bad sense she just is). She could definitely derail their plans. She might go along because she's in a desperate position but I think if she sees a crack she's charging at it full force

Todd and Amanda need to wake up and pull Frosti into their final three. Frosti is not in a position to make it incredibly far and he knows it. If they give him an in he'll take it and he's physically a closer match to them and he has no strong ties with anyone except maybe Courtney. They need to solidify Frosti's trust.

Courtney to me is just a problem. I think they could convince her to get rid of Jamie but not James because getting rid of James will go against everything they said last week and she'll just switch to bitchy mode and she's not strategic she'll tell anyone anything and that could equal HUGE problem.

I think Erik would be relatively easy to manipulate. PG not so much. If you try it next week, worse case scenario: James uses the idol, Erik goes home and the Todd and Amanda stick around. I think honestly they'd have a higher degree of success pulling Jean-Robert into their plan than James. Jean-Robert is more of a strategic player and he seems to seriously belief Todd is taking him to the final three (and why shouldn't he? Todd, Amanda, and Jean-Robert.... hmmm whoever will win there?)

 

[falconfan]

I think PG's "power play" involves denise... I just saw the commercial and there's a black shirt behind her. Denise is the one who has a black shirt correct?

 

[falconfan]

Why only get rid of one idol when you can get rid of 2? You get rid of only one and he's still the biggest threat. 2 idols, strongest competiter, everyone likes him. There's no way it's smarter to get rid of PG or Erik instead of James just for numbers when their numbers are already way more than 2. It would be smart to get rid of James, then PG, then use Erik as a number to form a new majority since he has no one and is a follower.

You're talking about getting rid of Todd for the benifit of PG/Erik but weren't we talking about what's smartest for Todd/Amanda/Courtney/Jean-Robert/Denise to do? For most of them, it'd be smartest to get rid of James while they can.

Well that's precisely why I'm bringing up the possibility it could back fire. It's just got so much potential to backfire on Todd and wind up being of major benefit to PG and Erik.

And why only get rid of one idol... because you're keeping an asset. James is willing to work with Todd and Amanda and I see them turning on him before he turns on them. You're getting rid of an idol AND keeping a vote on your side.

 

[movingincircles]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B10sW-WGrxM

For those who wanted an encore of Dave's balls in Aaron's face.

 

[Guy_Gardner]

jeez...I don't understand all the James hate...

but then again I'm biased...I'm a Louisiana boy too

 

[JOUPER]

I Think Todd Made A Mistake Too,James Is Physically Strong And Has 2 Immunity Symbols.James Will Be Probably Win.