I really like your idea of keeping Todd so Amanda can make it from F4 to F3 because Todd will be seen as a bigger threat. The problem is, what if Todd wins that Immunity? He hasn't totally sucked in comps.
You're right about accrediting good strategy to PG -- god knows they should, she's certainly more deserving than Todd -- but I wonder if their dislike for her will overwhelm that reasoning? It's all about perception my friend and she is perceived as "moody", "bitchy" and not someone a lot of these people want to give the money to. Remember how Star of the Season Colby -- fucking COLBY -- who was far more likable to his jury than PG would be to hers, lost to Tina because she got the warm-hug Camp Mom vote?
And don't forget, Frosti has no allegiance to his former tribemates (this is arguably what got him ousted) and would probably vote for Courtney over PG. See, this is where I think Erik is more dangerous because he is far more well liked. Have you noticed even JAMES talks nicely to Erik?? And Erik is the only original tribe member that Frosti seemed close to. If Erik is in the finals, he can get votes from Frosti, Jaime, PG and possibly even James and JR.
Hmm, in the end, you can only control so much. If I were Amanda, ok I might roll the dice on keeping Todd until F4 and then corralling Courtney and whoever else is there to vote him out. It's certainly a decent plan. But if my hunch is right -- that Amanda can beat ANYONE but Todd in a final vote, especially after her Big Move this week -- then it's in her best interest to get rid of Todd now.
If Amanda can get Todd out, then the F4 will be some combination out of Amanda, Courtney, Denise, PG, and Erik. See, I think Amanda can easily convince Courtney and Denise to vote out Erik because he is too damn likable! He will have easy winning votes on the jury. That means -- unless Erik wins the Final Immunity -- he will go home. Yeah, see this is what I would do if I were Amanda. Ditch Todd -- the only person she probably can't beat in the finals -- and let Erik replace Todd and take the fall for her at F4. Because if the plan has to backfire (if the "wrong" person wins Immunity) Amanda will probably not be able to convince the jury that she is more deserving than Todd (which is bullshit, but whatever) but she can probably make a good case that Erik didn't do much in the game where as she took out James and His Two Idols.