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Keeping Score: Members of Congress Not Seeking Re-election in 2026

KaraBulut

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Current balance of power:
House: R-218 D-214 (3 vacant seats)
Senate: R-53 D-47

Of the 49 U.S. House incumbents who are not seeking re-election:

Twenty-three — 13 Democrats and 10 Republicans — are retiring from public office.
Fifteen — seven Democrats and eight Republicans — are running for the U.S. Senate.
Eleven — one Democrat and 10 Republicans — are running for governor.
One Republican is running for state attorney general.

Senate Retirements:
Name
Party/Seat
Date announced
Dick DurbinD-IL23-Apr-2025
Joni ErnstR-IA02-Sep-2025
Amy KlobucharD-MNJan-2026
Cynthia LummisR-WY19-Dec-2025
Mitch McConnellR-KY20-Feb-2025
Gary PetersD-MI28-Jan-2025
Jeanne ShaheenD-NH12-Mar-2025
Tina SmithD-MN13-Feb-2025
Thom TillisR-NC29-Jun-2025
Tommy TubervilleR-AL27-May-2025
 
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House Seats Vacated for 2026


Name
PartySeatDate announced
Jodey ArringtonR-TX-1911-Nov-2025
Andy BarrR-KY-622-Apr-2025
Andy BiggsR-AZ-525-Jan-2025
Don BaconR-NB-230-Jun-2025
Julia BrownleyD-CA-2608-Jan-2026
Vern BuchananR-FL-1627-Jan-2026
Angie CraigD-MN-229-Apr-2025
Bonnie Watson ColemanD-NJ-1210-Nov-2025
Earl "Buddy" CarterR-GA-108-May-2025
Gerald ConnollyD-VA-1121-May-2025
Jasmine CrockettD-TX-3008-Dec-2025
Mike CollinsR-GA-1028-Jul-2025
Byron DonaldsR-FL-1925-Feb-2025
Danny K. DavisD-IL-731-Jul-2025
Lloyd DoggettD-TX-3705-Dec-2025
Neal DunnR-FL-213-Jan-2026
Dwight EvansD-PA-330-Jun-2025
Randy FeenstraR-IA-412-May-2025
Jared GoldenD-ME-205-Nov-2025
Jesus GarciaD-IL-405-Nov-2025
Marjorie Taylor GreeneR-GA-1405-Jan-2026
Mark GreenR-TN-720-Jul-2025
Raúl GrijalvaD-AZ-713-Mar-2025
Ashley HinsonR-IA-202-Sep-2025
Harriet HagemanR-WY23-Dec-2025
Steny HoyerD-MD-507-Jan-2026
Wesley HuntR-TX-3806-Oct-2025
Dusty JohnsonR-SD30-Jun-2025
John JamesR-MI-1007-Apr-2025
Raja KrishnamoorthiD-IL-807-May-2025
Robin KellyD-IL-206-May-2025
Barry LoudermilkR-GA-1104-Feb-2026
Doug LaMalfaR-CA-106-Jan-2026
Julia LetlowR-LA-520-Jan-2026
Morgan LuttrellR-TX-811-Sep-2025
Barry MooreR-AL-112-Aug-2025
Michael McCaulR-TX-1014-Sep-2025
Nancy MaceR-SC-104-Aug-2025
Seth MoultonD-MA-615-Oct-2025
Dan NewhouseR-WA-417-Dec-2025
Jerrold NadlerD-NY-1201-Sep-2025
Ralph NormanR-SC-528-Jul-2025
Troy NehlsR-TX-2229-Nov-2025
Chris PappasD-NH-103-Apr-2025
Nancy PelosiD-CA-1106-Nov-2025
Chip RoyR-TX-2121-Aug-2025
John RoseR-TN-620-Mar-2025
David SchweikertR-AZ-130-Sep-2025
Elise StefanikR-NY-2119-Dec-2025
Eric SwalwellD-CA-1421-Nov-2025
Haley StevensD-MI-1122-Apr-2025
Jan SchakowskyD-IL-905-May-2025
Mikie SherrillD-NJ-1120-Nov-2025
Sylvester TurnerD-TX-1805-Mar-2025
Tom TiffanyR-WI-723-Sep-2025
Marc VeaseyD-TX-3315-Dec-2025
Nydia VelazquezD-NY-720-Nov-2025
Michael WaltzR-FL-620-Jan-2025
 
I guess that having made their fortunes, a lot of them are getting out while the getting out is good.

Looking at the Senate, I am not sure I see a lot of movement for pick-ups on either side.

In the House, I think it will now depend on who the Dems put up for election in some of the Republican held districts...and whether the Dems don't fuck it up
with messaging like they seem to consistently do under the DNC leadership.
 
In the Senate, there's three, possibly four seats that could flip- Collins [R-ME], Sullivan [R-AK], Tillis [R-NC] are in seats that are vulnerable (Tillis is the only retirement). McConnell's seat could flip if a candidate like Andy Beshear decides to run. It's still not enough to give Democrats a high enough margin to impeach Trump.

The House continues to set records for retirements. It just seems that they hate their jobs and many are looking at other opportunities- like running for governor or their state's attorney general. The Republicans will lose the house but it's just a matter of by how much.
 
It is the certain loss of the House that now has TrumpCo. and Johnson huddling to figure out how to stop the elections in November.

Certainly the numbers should favour the Dems...put some really strong contenders in districts being vacated by some of the most toxic MAGAt seat fillers and it should be a piece of cake.

But on the other hand...in vulnerable districts held by no name Dems...the RNC could run some persuasive canditdates to convince the voters that with their voice in Congress, more could get done to help them.
 
In the [2026 midterm elections for Uniter States] Senate, there's three, possibly four seats that could flip- Collins [R-ME], Sullivan [R-AK], Tillis [R-NC] are in seats that are vulnerable (Tillis is the only retirement). McConnell's seat could flip if a candidate like Andy Beshear decides to run. It's still not enough to give Democrats a high enough margin to impeach Trump.


Closer to double.

If the 2026 Democrats will win majority-control pickup for the United States Senate—to go along with majority-control pickup for the United States House of Representatives—their current 47 seats require Republican-to-Democratic switches of +4 more seats.

If people (that is, voters) want that to happen—and these Democratic-level shifts from the 2025 special, the 2025 general (last November), and so far with 2026 special elections—they will go ahead and make it materialize.

Probable order for 2026 Democratic pickups for U.S. Senate (with winning over majority):

48. North Carolina
49. Maine
50. Alaska
51 and 52. Ohio and Texas
—or—
51 and 52. Texas and Ohio
53 and 54. Iowa and Nebraska
—or—
53 or 54. Nebraska and Iowa

I will have more to say on the topic thread I created about the 2026 United States midterm elections. (This may not occur on this posting date, due to the Super Bowl, but at some point during the week.)

 
Some pre-midterm changes:

Mikie Sherrill's seat [NJ-11] is vacant since she won the NJ governorship. That seat will be filled in a special election in April. It will likely go to a Democrat but AIPAC has been throwing mud around in the district- the Jewish activist PAC spent $4 million to run opposition ads against the candidate who was expected to win the Democratic primary (and the general). It may result in a weaker Democratic candidate in a district that flips Republican-Democratic.

Doug LaMalfa's seat [CA-1] is vacant. Rep LaMalfa died in January, 2026 from complications due to a ruptured aortic aneurysm. There won't be an election to replace LaMalfa until August, 2026 and it's likely this seat will be redistricted into a Democratic seat.

Marjorie Taylor Greene's seat [GA-14] is vacant since she resigned. There will be a special election to fill this seat in March, 2026. It is a red district and likely won't flip.


Having a weak, sycophantic, lying Speaker of the House doesn't help the Republican cause but the narrow margin, the missing House members and the lack of a platform or agenda has produced a spectacularly unproductive 119th Congress. The general frustration with a feckless Congress will only increase the number of expected resignations before the 2026 midterm.


 
The problem is that neither party wants to fix Congress. But then they complain about it. Their owners got exactly what they wanted. A dysfunctional Congress that only works for them.

And it is high time to clear out a lot of the deadwood.
 
^ The GQP will keep his corpse from leaving the House before November, because his vacating the seat would spell real trouble for Johnson/TrumpCo.
 
The vultures are circling on this one, even though Trump has endorsed him for re-election.

One of Mike Johnson's Republican House members had an affair with a staffer, who later set herself on fire. The staffer was married and had a young child when she killed herself in September, 2025.

Tony Gonzales [R-TX], a father of 6 children at 45 years old, was elected to the Congress in 2020, replacing Will Hurd [R-TX] who was a Never Trumper. Gonzales claims that the staffer's ex-husband was blackmailing him after finding the texts between Gonzales and the staffer.

Tony Gonzales and alleged mistress who set herself on fire exchanged ‘sexual’ texts, her heartbroken widower reveals

A Texas Republican and his alleged mistress aide exchanged 3,500 texts, some of which were “sexual,” her heartbroken husband and his attorney revealed to The Post in interviews Thursday, as the widower insisted his late wife cried out she “didn’t want to die” after fatally setting herself on fire last year.

Adrian Aviles‘ wife Regina Santos-Aviles worked for Rep. Tony Gonzales until her death by self-immolation in September 2025 — more than a year after purported trysts with the congressman were exposed when her husband saw “sexual” messages between the two on her cell phone.

Gonzales, who did not respond to requests for comment, in a blistering post on X Thursday in turn accused Aviles and his attorney Bobby Barrerra of apparently seeking to “blackmail” him if he didn’t pay six-figures in damages related to Regina’s fiery death.

Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales’ staffer burned to death after dousing herself with gasoline, setting her body ablaze

A staffer for US Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) who burned to death in her backyard set herself on fire with gasoline, according to firefighters — but her family still insists it was an accident.

Regina Santos-Aviles “doused herself in gasoline” in Uvalde on September 13, according to a report from responding firefighters obtained by the Uvalde Leader News.

This post would have normally gone into the Deplorables thread, but for the resignation of Gonzales would come within a vote of flipping the House from Republican to Democrat.

Tony-Gonzales-Congress.jpgregina-santos-aviles-35-congressional-111705331_449d68.jpg
 
They will delay the special election though. Hopefully the district will still swing Dem in November.

If the US has elections.
 
They will delay the special election though. Hopefully the district will still swing Dem in November.

If the US has elections.
It's getting uglier. The husband released the text messages.

Just after midnight on May 9, 2024, U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales begged an employee, Regina Santos-Aviles, to send him a “sexy pic.” When she pushed back, saying the conversation had gone too far, the married San Antonio Republican persisted, saying he was “just such a visual person.”

The messages, sent weeks ahead of Gonzales’ runoff election against Herrera in May 2024, show the congressman repeatedly pushing the conversation in a sexual direction, even as Santos-Aviles tried to deter him. After requesting an explicit photo, which she declined to provide, he asked her “favorite position.” She asked for his first, and he said, “on top pinning your legs.”

“This is going too far boss,” she replied. He continued to push, but eventually, the conversation turned to setting up an in-person liaison. Two days later, the pair were alone for several hours at a cabin owned by a former staffer’s family, the staffer told the Express-News.

Gonzales is trying ad hominem, with his comms staff claiming that Santos-Aviles' husband was having an affair and claiming that she set herself on fire because of the husband's infidelity.

Republicans in the House are pressuring Mike Johnson to cut Gonzales loose while there is still time to save the seat in November.
 
Gonzales must be toast at this point. Another vile opportunist who probably only spends his time trying to fuck women he preys on.
 
Gonzales must be toast at this point. Another vile opportunist who probably only spends his time trying to fuck women he preys on.
The House Ethics Committee is moving forward with an investigation into Gonzales. The committee is bipartisan and has serious members on it however their investigations can take months.



In the meantime, Gonzales will go into a Republican primary runoff in May, as neither he nor his opponent garnered over 50% of the vote.

The Texas Republican Party, which was taken over by evangelical Christian nationalists thirty years ago, was still willing to vote 42% for a guy who had an affair- documented with texts- with a staffer, even after the staffer set herself on fire over the fallout of the affair. Brandon Herrera is a far right gun rights activist.
1772651680681.png

Enough Texas Republicans were willing to vote for Ken Paxton - who also cheated on his wife and is in the midst of an ugly divorce - to put him into a runoff against John Cornyn for the US Senate. They want the Ten Commandments in public school classrooms, but not in the voting booth?
 
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Texas 'Christians' (old testament republicans) are vile creatures. They live their lives on the premise and the 'promise' that they can do the vilest things and as long as they ask jesus for forgiveness, their sins get washed clean at the end of their lives.

I had to sit through a dinner with a couple of prime exemplars of this a few years ago. Their personal lives were filthy with adultery among other deadly sins but they had the taste of jesus on their lips.
 
Texas 'Christians' (old testament republicans) are vile creatures. They live their lives on the premise and the 'promise' that they can do the vilest things and as long as they ask jesus for forgiveness, their sins get washed clean at the end of their lives.

I had to sit through a dinner with a couple of prime exemplars of this a few years ago. Their personal lives were filthy with adultery among other deadly sins but they had the taste of jesus on their lips.
It's been a while, but I've worked side-by-side with a lot of Christians doing NGO volunteer work. I wouldn't paint them with a broad brush.

My read on what we're seeing with the white Christian nationalists is more about the decline in traditional denominations like Roman Catholics, Methodists and Disciples of Christ and the move toward more charismatic, non-denominational Pentecostal-affiliated churches.

The traditional denominations were more aligned with social justice gospel and good works, and their clergy were more likely to be formally trained. The non-denominational churches still do some "good works", but it is often more likely to be within their own church or for the purpose of growing their own church, and their ministers are less likely to have been educated in theology.

During the time that I did volunteer work, I saw some of that change. Early in my career, I would find myself working with professionals who were doing their social gospel work specified by the catechism or the Book of Discipline. Thirty years later, I found myself working with people who claimed to be teaching themselves Aramaic because they didn't trust elitist translators of the Bible, and they would often introduce themselves at orientation with phrases like, "Hi! My name is Tiffany and I'm from Alabama and I love Jesus!".

I can't say that I understand where the nationalism came from. It seems to have originated from a few pastors in the Falwell generation who were more interested in perversions like "prosperity gospel". It does seem to have gotten completely off the rails in the Trump era, which is why we're seeing the megachurch grifters camped out at the White House, and the plethora of sexual abuse convictions of pastors in churches. And it is definitely showing itself in Republican primaries in both the candidates that are running for office and the voters who are showing up to vote for them.

For example, Paxton's powerbase is in a megachurch he attends in Collin County, Texas, outside of Dallas. The Texas Legislature changed the laws a while back so that corrupt public officials were not investigated by prosecutors in Austin and instead were investigated by their local district attorney. Many local officials in Collin County attend the same church as Paxton and were friends of Paxton. Those officials claimed that they didn't have money in the county budget to prosecute Paxton for his crimes, so he was able to remain as the Texas State Attorney General for years before the charges were quietly dropped. And of course, Paxton's political career has been underwritten by a group of wealthy evangelicals like Tim Dunn. Dunn also financed primary candidates to run against all of the members of the Texas Legislature who tried to impeach Paxton.

This the reason that previous generations were so adamant about separation of church and state. Politics is a corrupt business. The reason that we're seeing so much moral rot in our society has a lot to do with the mixing of religion and politics.

Talarico is very retro-Christian. His message is very centered on speaking in the language that evangelicals understand and- you are right in this- he focuses heavily on the Beatitudes and sections of the New Testament that speak to younger Christians. It's going to be interesting to see how the Texas Senate race plays out.

It's definitely been a long time since I heard a Democratic politician speak like this:
 
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Fratres, quia peccávi nimis cogitatióne, verbo et ópere: mea culpa, mea culpa, mea máxima culpa.

What a difference a primary and an ethics investigation makes...

Gonzales admits to having an affair, calls it a ‘mistake’ and ‘lapse of judgment’

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) admitted to having an affair with one of his congressional staffers, who died after setting herself on fire last year.

Gonzales, who had been facing increasing scrutiny over allegations of the affair, told conservative talk show host Joe Pags in an interview that he “made a mistake” and had a “lapse in judgment.”...

Gonzales did not receive enough votes in Tuesday’s Texas primary to win reelection outright and will head to a runoff in May against YouTuber Brandon Herrera.
 
It is always just so fucking easy for these horrible men...The formula:

1. Find a sympathetic forum with limited audience and no one to ask the dirty questions.
2. Announce that you now know you sinned.
3. Tell everyone that you asked God's forgiveness and that He's agreed to your terms and your faith is stronger than ever
4. Announce that you are back in the loving arms of your wife and bosom of your family.
5. Make sure everyone knows how you've suffered 'working through it all' and that you've changed
6. Emphasize that you are 'humbled'
7. Wait for social media to amplify your message.

In this case, he also got bonus round points for having a wife with the name 'Angel'.

“I take full responsibility for those actions.
Since then, I’ve reconciled with my wife, Angel.
I’ve asked God to forgive me, which he has, and my faith is as strong as ever.
When you make mistakes like this, you know it’s never easy.

It humbles you, but it’s important to kind of work through it all,” Gonzales said.

This shit was written by a crisis management consultant or some staffer charged with spinning PR.

And it is the kind of shit that can translate into evangelical votes.
 
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