CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
The date of this opening post is one year from the scheduled general election for the 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Job approval for Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump, according to a November 2, 2025 Real Clear Politics, is between 43 to 44 percent. (Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating.)
Gallup reports October 22, 2025 job approval for Trump is at 41% and Congress is at 15%. While Congress consists of elected politicians from both major parties, both houses are in the column for the Republican Party. (Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/696722/congress-job-rating-sinks-trump-steady.aspx.)
CNN reports November 3, 2025 on not only Trump’s low job approval but that there is also more Democratic enthusiasm. (Source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/03/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-trump-midterms.)
Let’s quickly review Election 2024 outcomes:
2024 U.S. PRESIDENT
Donald Trump 49.71% (Pickup from 2020) | Electoral Votes: 312
Kamala Harris 48.24% | Electoral Votes: 226
️ Margin: R+1.47
2024 U.S. SENATE
Republican (Pickup from 2022) with 53 seats
Democratic with 47 seats
2024 U.S. HOUSE
Republican (Hold from 2022) with 220 seats
Democratic with 215 seats
️ U.S. Popular Vote: Republican 49.75% vs. Democratic 47.19%
️ Margin: R+2.56
Given the 17th Amendment—which is direct elections of United States senators by states’s citizens—dates back to the 1910s…the midterm elections of 1914 to 2022 was a period of 108 years and numbered 28 election cycles. The White House party was the overall winning party—combining seat gains for United States Senate and United States House of Representatives—in three cycles: 1934, 1998, and 2002. The midterms of 1962 was a tie. For all other midterm cycles, the overall winning party was the White House opposition party. Mathematically, the results have been: 3.5 divided by 28 = 12.50% (Incumbent Party) vs. 24.5 divided by 28 = 87.50% (Opposition Party).
In special elections, especially from this past Spring 2025, Republicans underperformed while Democrats overperformed.
(The numbers come from Wikipedia.)
The special March 25, 2025 election for Pennsylvania Senate District #36 was a Democratic pickup for James Andrew Malone (50.0%) vs. Republican nominee Josh Parsons (49.1%). A margin of D+0.9. In 2022, Republican Ryan Aument prevailed with 60%. Trump won this state district by +15 points. So, the fact that this district—which includes historically Republican Lancaster County—flipped Democratic is inexcusable for the Republicans.
The special March 25, 2025 Florida U.S. House elections in Districts #01 and #06 were more examples. In the states’s 1st Congressional District, Republican Jimmy Patronis received 56.86% and won by R+14.60. In November 2024, Matt Gaetz was re-elected with 66% and won by R+32. In the state’s 6th Congressional District, Republican Randy Fine received 56.68% and won by R+13.99. In November 2024, Mike Waltz (who stepped down to join the Trump administration) received 66.5% and won by R+33.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court race was held April 1, 2025. Democratic-preferred Susan Crawford (with 55.02%) defeated Republican-preferred Brad Schimel (with 44.92%). A 2024 Trump won the state with 49.60% vs. 48.74% for Democratic nominee (and then-U.S. vice president) Kamala Harris. A margin of R+0.86. Trump ended up with 31 carried states. Wisconsin was his No. 31 best state. And, five months later, a Democratic-favored victory came with a margin of +10.10.
The gubernatorial elections on Tuesday, November 4, 2025 are critical. The Nos. 11 and 12 most-populous states, Due to history, New Jersey and Virginia, are regularly viewed as harbingers for next-year midterm elections cycles. Since 1977, but with exception in 2013, Virginia has elected White House opposition-party governors. New Jersey, which made an exception in 2021, has been on this pattern since 1989. So, Virginia has been at it for 11 of the last 12 such cycles; New Jersey in 8 of the last 9. Effective with the 2021 gubernatorials: New Jersey was won with re-election by Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy by +3.22 while Virginia was a Republican pickup for Glenn Youngkin by +1.94. It is likely, here in 2025, the same party will prevail in both states. I suspect Mikie Sherrill, in a Democratic hold, will win New Jersey by about +6 points; that Abigail Spanberger, in a Democratic pickup, will win Virginia by nearly +10 points.
What do I think, a year out, will be the results of the 2026 midterm elections?
U.S. Senate: Republican hold, for now, with at least 51 seats; maximum 49 seats for the Democrats (a net gain of +2)
U.S. House: Democratic pickup, for control, with a seats count at least 225 but quite possibly in the 230s
The 2024 U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, as R+2.56 (D–2.56) means the 2026 Republicans have to match that national margin—or go higher—or they will lose the U.S. House. Which is what I think will play out. (This is why I included the Real Clear Politics report on “Generic Congressional Vote”.)
The above maps are for 2026 U.S. Senate (first) and, while not labeled, 2026 U.S. House (second and third).
U.S. Senate
I think all 47 seats will hold for the Democrats, They will need to flip +4 held by the Republicans. States appearing in yellow have, more or less, potential. Probable order: No. 48 North Carolina and No. 49 Maine. Democrats need four of those seven colored in yellow.
U.S. House:
This involves a more detailed analysis.
The map which shows light blue identifies states which have the potential to switch Republican seats to the Democrats. They are in leading bellwether states Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as well as in rising bellwether Arizona; along with Democratic-aligned California, Illinois, New Jersey, Virginia, and Colorado; plus Republican-aligned Nebraska (with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District which, in 2020, realigned to the Democrats for U.S. President) and Iowa (while it realigned Republican for U.S. President in 2016, the Democrats can go from, say, having zero to one of the state’s four U.S. House seats). The website 270 to Win lists 18 such seats. (Source: https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/.) So if all were to come in, for the 2026 Democrats, that is a potential 233 seats.
The map which shows states colored in solid red and blue are ones Republicans and Democrats are (or may be) mid-decade redistricting. This is a move by U.S. president Trump to manufacture more Republican seats. So, Trump and the Republicans are targeting their party-aligned states—especially Top 10 and Top 20 populous states—and the Democrats have it figured to counter with theirs. I have a scenario in which eight states, for each for the two major parties, can end up mid-decade redistricted.
(A note regarding North Carolina: It is a sleeper bellwether state. In 2024, for U.S. President, North Carolina was the Republicans’s No. 26 and the Democrats’s No. 25 best state. But, the Republicans have enough control of the state. It is colored in purple.)
I do want to stop here. I don’t to go further with this opening post. Any more from me, related to this topic, will be in my future comments. Thank you, to Everyone (including Moderators), for allowing me to start this topic. (I asked in the thread “2028 US Presidential Election". By the way: If any of the images are too large…I apologize since I do not start many thread and do not remember how to do this properly.)
Job approval for Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump, according to a November 2, 2025 Real Clear Politics, is between 43 to 44 percent. (Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating.)
Gallup reports October 22, 2025 job approval for Trump is at 41% and Congress is at 15%. While Congress consists of elected politicians from both major parties, both houses are in the column for the Republican Party. (Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/696722/congress-job-rating-sinks-trump-steady.aspx.)
CNN reports November 3, 2025 on not only Trump’s low job approval but that there is also more Democratic enthusiasm. (Source: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/03/politics/cnn-poll-democrats-trump-midterms.)
Let’s quickly review Election 2024 outcomes:
2024 U.S. PRESIDENT Donald Trump 49.71% (Pickup from 2020) | Electoral Votes: 312 Kamala Harris 48.24% | Electoral Votes: 226️ Margin: R+1.47 2024 U.S. SENATE Republican (Pickup from 2022) with 53 seats Democratic with 47 seats 2024 U.S. HOUSE Republican (Hold from 2022) with 220 seats Democratic with 215 seats️ U.S. Popular Vote: Republican 49.75% vs. Democratic 47.19%️ Margin: R+2.56Given the 17th Amendment—which is direct elections of United States senators by states’s citizens—dates back to the 1910s…the midterm elections of 1914 to 2022 was a period of 108 years and numbered 28 election cycles. The White House party was the overall winning party—combining seat gains for United States Senate and United States House of Representatives—in three cycles: 1934, 1998, and 2002. The midterms of 1962 was a tie. For all other midterm cycles, the overall winning party was the White House opposition party. Mathematically, the results have been: 3.5 divided by 28 = 12.50% (Incumbent Party) vs. 24.5 divided by 28 = 87.50% (Opposition Party).
In special elections, especially from this past Spring 2025, Republicans underperformed while Democrats overperformed.
(The numbers come from Wikipedia.)
The special March 25, 2025 election for Pennsylvania Senate District #36 was a Democratic pickup for James Andrew Malone (50.0%) vs. Republican nominee Josh Parsons (49.1%). A margin of D+0.9. In 2022, Republican Ryan Aument prevailed with 60%. Trump won this state district by +15 points. So, the fact that this district—which includes historically Republican Lancaster County—flipped Democratic is inexcusable for the Republicans.
The special March 25, 2025 Florida U.S. House elections in Districts #01 and #06 were more examples. In the states’s 1st Congressional District, Republican Jimmy Patronis received 56.86% and won by R+14.60. In November 2024, Matt Gaetz was re-elected with 66% and won by R+32. In the state’s 6th Congressional District, Republican Randy Fine received 56.68% and won by R+13.99. In November 2024, Mike Waltz (who stepped down to join the Trump administration) received 66.5% and won by R+33.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court race was held April 1, 2025. Democratic-preferred Susan Crawford (with 55.02%) defeated Republican-preferred Brad Schimel (with 44.92%). A 2024 Trump won the state with 49.60% vs. 48.74% for Democratic nominee (and then-U.S. vice president) Kamala Harris. A margin of R+0.86. Trump ended up with 31 carried states. Wisconsin was his No. 31 best state. And, five months later, a Democratic-favored victory came with a margin of +10.10.
The gubernatorial elections on Tuesday, November 4, 2025 are critical. The Nos. 11 and 12 most-populous states, Due to history, New Jersey and Virginia, are regularly viewed as harbingers for next-year midterm elections cycles. Since 1977, but with exception in 2013, Virginia has elected White House opposition-party governors. New Jersey, which made an exception in 2021, has been on this pattern since 1989. So, Virginia has been at it for 11 of the last 12 such cycles; New Jersey in 8 of the last 9. Effective with the 2021 gubernatorials: New Jersey was won with re-election by Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy by +3.22 while Virginia was a Republican pickup for Glenn Youngkin by +1.94. It is likely, here in 2025, the same party will prevail in both states. I suspect Mikie Sherrill, in a Democratic hold, will win New Jersey by about +6 points; that Abigail Spanberger, in a Democratic pickup, will win Virginia by nearly +10 points.
What do I think, a year out, will be the results of the 2026 midterm elections?
U.S. Senate: Republican hold, for now, with at least 51 seats; maximum 49 seats for the Democrats (a net gain of +2) U.S. House: Democratic pickup, for control, with a seats count at least 225 but quite possibly in the 230sThe 2024 U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, as R+2.56 (D–2.56) means the 2026 Republicans have to match that national margin—or go higher—or they will lose the U.S. House. Which is what I think will play out. (This is why I included the Real Clear Politics report on “Generic Congressional Vote”.)
The above maps are for 2026 U.S. Senate (first) and, while not labeled, 2026 U.S. House (second and third).
U.S. Senate
I think all 47 seats will hold for the Democrats, They will need to flip +4 held by the Republicans. States appearing in yellow have, more or less, potential. Probable order: No. 48 North Carolina and No. 49 Maine. Democrats need four of those seven colored in yellow.
U.S. House:
This involves a more detailed analysis.
The map which shows light blue identifies states which have the potential to switch Republican seats to the Democrats. They are in leading bellwether states Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin as well as in rising bellwether Arizona; along with Democratic-aligned California, Illinois, New Jersey, Virginia, and Colorado; plus Republican-aligned Nebraska (with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District which, in 2020, realigned to the Democrats for U.S. President) and Iowa (while it realigned Republican for U.S. President in 2016, the Democrats can go from, say, having zero to one of the state’s four U.S. House seats). The website 270 to Win lists 18 such seats. (Source: https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/.) So if all were to come in, for the 2026 Democrats, that is a potential 233 seats.
The map which shows states colored in solid red and blue are ones Republicans and Democrats are (or may be) mid-decade redistricting. This is a move by U.S. president Trump to manufacture more Republican seats. So, Trump and the Republicans are targeting their party-aligned states—especially Top 10 and Top 20 populous states—and the Democrats have it figured to counter with theirs. I have a scenario in which eight states, for each for the two major parties, can end up mid-decade redistricted.
(A note regarding North Carolina: It is a sleeper bellwether state. In 2024, for U.S. President, North Carolina was the Republicans’s No. 26 and the Democrats’s No. 25 best state. But, the Republicans have enough control of the state. It is colored in purple.)
I do want to stop here. I don’t to go further with this opening post. Any more from me, related to this topic, will be in my future comments. Thank you, to Everyone (including Moderators), for allowing me to start this topic. (I asked in the thread “2028 US Presidential Election". By the way: If any of the images are too large…I apologize since I do not start many thread and do not remember how to do this properly.)
