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The 2026 Midterm Elections, One Year Out, Looks Good for Democrats
- Thread starter CoolBlue71
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Probably NOT a pick up for the Dems, but great news that Stephanik has not only quit the race for governor, but has also announced she won't run in 2026.
Another one who hitched her star to Trump in the most cynical way possible and ended up with nothing really to show for it. Except looking shopworn.
I doubt if she will even get a long running gig as pundit, but we'll see.
Another one who hitched her star to Trump in the most cynical way possible and ended up with nothing really to show for it. Except looking shopworn.
I doubt if she will even get a long running gig as pundit, but we'll see.
CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
No.
I commonly use the word “pickup” when I could use the word “flip” or the words “party switch.”
2022 GOVERNOR OF NEW YORK 
Lee Zeldin 46.73%
Kathy Hochul 53.12%
️ Margin: D+6.39In 2022, Kathy Hochul was a Democratic hold with winning a first full term as Governor of New York. This followed the three midterm elections of 2010, 2014, and 2018 winner Andrew Cuomo.
In 2022, the popular vote for U.S. House from New York was D+11.71. (National: R+2.72—and a Republican pickup for control for the U.S. House,)
In 2024, the popular vote for U.S. House from New York was D+14.69. (National: R+2.56—with Republican pickups for U.S. President and control for the U.S. Senate.)
In those two U.S. House elections from New York, there was a Democratic tilt vs. the nation of +14.43 and +17.25 percentage points. If the 2026 Democratic pickup for control of at least the U.S. House is won by at least +3 percentage points…it is going to be likely 2026 New York ends up with a U.S. House popular vote of nearly +20.
A conservative estimate is that a 2026 Kathy Hochul gets re-elected Governor of New York by at least D+16—an approximate 10-point increase going from 2022 to 2026—but with a 2026 that would be a bad year for Donald Trump’s Republican Party…she may end up winning by +20 points or better; possibly reaching 60 percent while her losing Republican challenger misses reaching 40 percent.
(I sense that New York #17’s Republican incumbent, Mike Lawler, will get unseated by his Democratic challenger.)
The decision to drop out, by Elise Stefanik, is not surprising.
Sources:
2022 New York gubernatorial election - Wikipedia
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I wasn't referring to the governor's race but the congressional seat.
She never was a contender for governor, but now that she is leaving Congress, I suspect that the GQP will run someone that would beat any Democrat in her district...hence, ,not possibility of a Dem pick-up
with her departure.
She never was a contender for governor, but now that she is leaving Congress, I suspect that the GQP will run someone that would beat any Democrat in her district...hence, ,not possibility of a Dem pick-up
with her departure.
CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
UPDATE: 2026 UNITED STATES SENATE IS A TOSSUP
Two months have passed since I wrote and posted this topic.
I am rating the 2026 United States Senate elections a Tossup.
(I rate the 2026 United States House of Representatives as a Likely Democratic Pickup.)
You can refer to the above, opening-post map and focus especially on the states appearing in yellow. (They are currently in the column for the Republicans.)
Probable order:
48. North Carolina
49. Maine
50. Ohio
51. Iowa (perhaps the Tipping-Point state and seat)
52. Alaska
53. Texas
Beyond 53:
54. Florida
55. Nebraska
56. South Carolina
My guess, here in January 2026, in a scenario in which the 2026 Democrats do succeed in winning majority-control pickup for the United States. They would reach that outright 51st seat. They would number between 51 to 53 seats. Good for 51 to 53 percent of the seats in the U.S. Senate. Historically, when both houses flip to the White House opposition party, in the same midterm election cycle, a higher percentage of seats tend to be won over for U.S. House.
Related material:
www.newsweek.com
Two months have passed since I wrote and posted this topic.
I am rating the 2026 United States Senate elections a Tossup.
(I rate the 2026 United States House of Representatives as a Likely Democratic Pickup.)
You can refer to the above, opening-post map and focus especially on the states appearing in yellow. (They are currently in the column for the Republicans.)
Probable order:
48. North Carolina
49. Maine
50. Ohio
51. Iowa (perhaps the Tipping-Point state and seat)
52. Alaska
53. Texas
Beyond 53:
54. Florida
55. Nebraska
56. South Carolina
My guess, here in January 2026, in a scenario in which the 2026 Democrats do succeed in winning majority-control pickup for the United States. They would reach that outright 51st seat. They would number between 51 to 53 seats. Good for 51 to 53 percent of the seats in the U.S. Senate. Historically, when both houses flip to the White House opposition party, in the same midterm election cycle, a higher percentage of seats tend to be won over for U.S. House.
Related material:
Mary Peltola’s chances of beating Dan Sullivan in Alaska: Polls
Democrats are hoping to flip the Senate in November 2026 in a move that would restrain President Trump's legislative agenda.
www.newsweek.com
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We'll see whether:
A. US voters thrill to the drumbeat of a war they only have to watch on TV as they seize one territory after another
B. Whether there are elections at all.
I think the first is likely and the call will be to support a wartime regime of Republicans.
I think there is an increasing chance that TrumpCo. will have evertthing they need with the assistance of the Republican House...to suspend 2026 Congressional elections. with the consent of all the members who wnat to keep their jobs on both sides of the aisle.
A. US voters thrill to the drumbeat of a war they only have to watch on TV as they seize one territory after another
B. Whether there are elections at all.
I think the first is likely and the call will be to support a wartime regime of Republicans.
I think there is an increasing chance that TrumpCo. will have evertthing they need with the assistance of the Republican House...to suspend 2026 Congressional elections. with the consent of all the members who wnat to keep their jobs on both sides of the aisle.