Where to draw the line between logical deduction or speculation and conspiracy theory crazy?

[Dominus]

So, during the george floyd protests, there were a few things that raised a lot of eyebrows. For example, whole pallets of bricks were delivered to supposedly peaceful protest sites. Reports also came in that people saw white men purposefully destroy properties to incite the crowd into violence. And then there's this.



I've run into people who think that any speculation about anything at all is the same as alien conspiracy theory level crazy. This includes reports of white supremacists infiltrating BLM protests to incite violence. This includes stories of spies during WW2. This includes speculations of what the next cell phone will look like.

I'm not sure of these people were serious or not, but it does bring up a question in my mind. Where do we draw the line between speculation based on available data and ancient alien theory level of crazy?

Suppose I go away for a weekend and come back to a fallen tree in the backyard. Must have been a violent storm here over the weekend. Is this type of speculation on the same level as alien conspiracy theory? Just where do we draw the line?

 

[gsdx]

Logic and common sense. Conspiracy theorists neither have nor use either.

 

[Peloso]

Conspiracy theorists would rather cling to their delusions than have their comfort shattered by the truth. It's all about feeling secure at all costs.

 

[rareboy]

Speculation becomes a conspiracy theory when it is tied to outcome without any proof to back it up.

It is one thing to see a pallet of bricks.

It is another to conjecture that they were recently placed unless there is proof.

Speculation would simply ask the question...where did the bricks come from? Why at that time? Would anyone have been able to anticipate that they would be used in a protest?

Reasonable people would stop there until someone conducted the incredibly simple and basic investigation to find out where the bricks were purchased (pretty easy), Who purchased them (harder) and why were they left on pallets in the street?

Conspiracy theorists rush right to, the bricks were purchased by (fill in the name of the group you hate) in order to ensure they were used as projectiles by (fill in the name of the group you hate) in order to (fill in the outcome that serves your agenda).

Don't ask for or look for proof. Even if it turns out that there was a construction project right next to the roadway where the bricks were left where masonry units were being used. Or someone finds out that there was permission for them to occupy public roadspace (because you have to have permits for this kind of thing)

It isn't rocket science.

 

[ShadowCat]

I think conspiracy theorists might be right about some stuff and but they are poo pooed and dismissed because they are on to something. I mean there are some things that certain people/companies/etc will not want getting out because it would hurt their bottom line and we all know thats a no no! I mean some time ago during the summer I saw a commercial for the Chevy Vapor this was in about 2008 or 9 or so. It was a car that ran on hydrogen and only emitted water vapor that was it! I saw that commercial with my dad. Now we were both sober both watching tv both saw it, but there is ZERO information about it anywhere on the web! I mean someone had to research it at Chevy, someone had to mock up the commercial in story boards, someone had to sculpt build and roll the car off the assembly line and a Production outfit needed to produce the commercial so what happened? Where did it go where was/is the information?! This is what I am talking about so many republicans have their dicks in oil they wouldn't want this car on the streets! It's just like diseases like cancer diabetes and asthma there is no cure? Cmon lets look at it objectively take diabetes: you need lancets, testing strips, possible control solution (make sure meter is reading accurately), syringes or pen needles, insulin, a pill, possibly another injectible drug like Victoza, Trulicity, or Ozempic, a possible pill like Metformin or Glipizide, and a statin for cholesterol (which will raise your sugars, most diabetics have high cholesterol because of the diet shift from less carbs to more fat/protein) and with that comes possibly something for high blood pressure, this is also not taking into account the myriad of other things that might go wrong like needing to see a kidney specialist, or in my mom's case having cataracts needing to see a Ophthalmologist then having a complication and needing a retina specialist (his bill would have been over $30,000 for an hour procedure) so 3 operations later, and about 5 or 6 laser procedures at $2000.00 a piece his bill was close to $42,000 not to mention all the other shit and that's a HUGE CHUNK OF MONEY they would be missing if they released the cure! Now add to that my asthma and all the care and money that requires 94.78 a month for asthma controller pills =1137.36 and an inhaled steroid at 297.61 a month =3571.32 that is 4708.68 then add 20 f or a rescue inhaler and 105 per specialist visit that is 4938.68 not including nebulizer solution parts for the nebulizer peakflow meters. So now imagine like 2 million people in a situation like mine 46708.68 X 2,000,000= 93,417,360,000 and drug companies and politico's with interests in drug companies aren't going to let that chunk of change go! I should also mention that my above figure does not include facility charges, and anesthesiologist charges or subsequent eye drop prescriptions of which at the time she was on 6 after the procedures to get her swelling down as well as a vertigo prescription to help with swelling!

 

[Charon]

Paragraphs, how do they work?

 

[PalacePaul]

I had to search for this meme I saw last week

 

[rareboy]

I think conspiracy theorists might be right about some stuff and but they are poo pooed and dismissed because they are on to something. I mean there are some things that certain people/companies/etc will not want getting out because it would hurt their bottom line and we all know thats a no no! I mean some time ago during the summer I saw a commercial for the Chevy Vapor this was in about 2008 or 9 or so. It was a car that ran on hydrogen and only emitted water vapor that was it! I saw that commercial with my dad. Now we were both sober both watching tv both saw it, but there is ZERO information about it anywhere on the web! I mean someone had to research it at Chevy, someone had to mock up the commercial in story boards, someone had to sculpt build and roll the car off the assembly line and a Production outfit needed to produce the commercial so what happened? Where did it go where was/is the information?! This is what I am talking about so many republicans have their dicks in oil they wouldn't want this car on the streets! It's just like diseases like cancer diabetes and asthma there is no cure? Cmon lets look at it objectively take diabetes: you need lancets, testing strips, possible control solution (make sure meter is reading accurately), syringes or pen needles, insulin, a pill, possibly another injectible drug like Victoza, Trulicity, or Ozempic, a possible pill like Metformin or Glipizide, and a statin for cholesterol (which will raise your sugars, most diabetics have high cholesterol because of the diet shift from less carbs to more fat/protein) and with that comes possibly something for high blood pressure, this is also not taking into account the myriad of other things that might go wrong like needing to see a kidney specialist, or in my mom's case having cataracts needing to see a Ophthalmologist then having a complication and needing a retina specialist (his bill would have been over $30,000 for an hour procedure) so 3 operations later, and about 5 or 6 laser procedures at $2000.00 a piece his bill was close to $42,000 not to mention all the other shit and that's a HUGE CHUNK OF MONEY they would be missing if they released the cure! Now add to that my asthma and all the care and money that requires 94.78 a month for asthma controller pills =1137.36 and an inhaled steroid at 297.61 a month =3571.32 that is 4708.68 then add 20 f or a rescue inhaler and 105 per specialist visit that is 4938.68 not including nebulizer solution parts for the nebulizer peakflow meters. So now imagine like 2 million people in a situation like mine 46708.68 X 2,000,000= 93,417,360,000 and drug companies and politico's with interests in drug companies aren't going to let that chunk of change go! I should also mention that my above figure does not include facility charges, and anesthesiologist charges or subsequent eye drop prescriptions of which at the time she was on 6 after the procedures to get her swelling down as well as a vertigo prescription to help with swelling!

Quod Erat Demonstrandum.

It is always like this. The people not educated in science always use 'Objectively' just before they thrown themselves into the giant global pharma conspiracy nonsense.

I have spent 40 years working in a field related to medicine and research.

And could list dozens and dozens of incredible advances in the field of oncology, endocrinology, virolgy, haematology, neonatology and probably every other 'ology' you want to name.

For this utterly absurdist premise of a failure to produce a cure because the pharmaceutical and medical care establishments make too much money from sickness, there has to be a global, multi-generational conspiracy whereby there is no person altruistic enough to just do the research, produce the cure and free people from disease. This is ridiculous and exactly the kind of leap from assumption to intent that the QAnoners thrive on.

It demonstrates an utter lack of understanding of genetic and environmental factors in disease and that something like cancer is not a single 'disease' but 1000's...almost as individual as the individual and affected by so many variables.

It also fails to miss the fact that only the US and a couple of other 2nd world countries look at medical care as a profit enterprise. In countries where we regard health care as a universal, human right, the drive to perfect cures would overtake all other motives. The US is not the only country in the world. Or the only one with sick people. The Canadians who invented insulin gave the patent away for a dollar. Jonas Salk eradicated polio. The publicly and foundationally funded researchers at the teaching hospitals in Canada aren't concerned with profit margins for Pfizer, they are focused on cures, improving life span and quality of life.

I will just note that coming from a family with a genetic pre-disposition to Type 2 diabetes, the first thing that I and my sister did when we slipped into the diabetic range was to lose weight, change out diet and exercise....and manage blood pressure ....both of us walked right out of the diabetic range and avoided the insulin and testing etc. I am not blaming those who prefer to rely on medication to manage the condition...but I know that based on science, a lot of people are their own worst enemies when it comes to diabetic management. If they lived in Canada, cost is hardly even a consideration...but the diabetics in the US are frustrated and angry and instead of blaming their politicians and their own failed health care policies....they look to blame the companies that produce all the things that they need to live...which I will admit, are grossly overinflated in cost in the US because of the failed health care management policies of the governments they elect.

But what a perfect example of how conspiracy theories spread like wildfire among those who feel powerless.

 

[peeonme]

All things that we hear should be questioned as we hear them. That includes the evening news and those who question those who report that news. If we sit in church we should question what is being preached or taught and if we are in school, again we should be asking questions in our minds.

That doesn't mean that the news media, churches and schools have some sort of conspiracy going on, rather they have an agenda. The main stream media is on the progressive or liberal side of things and that's the "spin" that they place on what they report. Understanding this helps a person to understand why this media might refer to one event as a "mostly peaceful protest" and another as a riot or insurrection. Are they hell bent on deceiving the public or are they reporting things as they "see" them?

In the event of a true conspiracy any evidence of that conspiracy would be carefully hidden, the fact that inconsistencies occur is proof of an agenda, not of a conspiracy. When manufacturing left north America for China it was not a conspiracy... it was right in front of us. What was not talked about was the collusion between big business and our elected officials that happened via lobbyists. Again this isn't a conspiracy but rather a common event that gets very little light shed on it.

The line of bs that comes from both sides is too obvious and blatant to be some deep dark conspiracy.

 

[DepravedMuscleFTL]

most of us grew up believing that we could trust the news/media - thus if we heard something it was the truth - thus people still run with what they heard... nothing was "speculation" - there was no "fake" news - the "truth" of a story wasn't subject to "bipartisanship" - Walter Cronkite or Dan Rather would never lie to us right ?

 

[ShadowCat]

Paragraphs, how do they work?

Hey I didn't ask you to fuck me so stop riding me!

 

[Zeno Lorea]

I know that based on science, a lot of people are their own worst enemies when it comes to diabetic management. If they lived in Canada, cost is hardly even a consideration...but the diabetics in the US are frustrated and angry and instead of blaming their politicians and their own failed health care policies....they look to blame the companies that produce all the things that they need to live...which I will admit, are grossly overinflated in cost in the US because of the failed health care management policies of the governments they elect.

But what a perfect example of how conspiracy theories spread like wildfire among those who feel powerless.

This, 100%.

 

[Zeno Lorea]

most of us grew up believing that we could trust the news/media - thus if we heard something it was the truth - thus people still run with what they heard... nothing was "speculation" - there was no "fake" news - the "truth" of a story wasn't subject to "bipartisanship" - Walter Cronkite or Dan Rather would never lie to us right ?

I hope you know the difference between a serious journalist with a few degrees from real universities and Karen from Facebook, Concerned Citizens and other School of Hard Knocks grads, because the problem in America is that too many people don't.

 

[rareboy]

For those who somehow think that Cancer Care is a just a game being run to keep extracting cash out of Americans....the death rate has fallen 32% since 1991.

https://www.axios.com/cancer-death-rate-falls-report-d6a9d303-9460-4407-81e1-9626cb1a6bca.html

This has been as a result of incredible advances in detection and treatment.