Windows XP SP3 feels Left-out

[thermodynamics]

When are we going to see SP3 released to the world?

 

[Jannus]

Microsoft seems to be a bit schizophrenic with regard to Win XP.

When Vista debuted in January 2007, we were told Win XP would be not be available after January 30, 2008. Microsoft refused to say, but the word on the street was that there would be NO Win XP SP3. What would be the point of releasing a Service Pack for an OS that was being discontinued, and that Microsoft was trying to encourage users to replace with Vista, anyway?

Then, Vista failed to capture the excitement of business, the United Nations released its OLPC, a raft of cheap OLPC copycats hit the market, and even a couple of cheap desktop PCs appeared which *Gasp* were being sold to the public without Windows! The total market impact of all of these new machines has been almost nonexistent. But even the idea that a new computer could possibly be sold to the public without the obligation of purchase of a Windows license seems to have driven Microsoft into a panic. They delayed the extermination of Windows XP until June 30, 2008, announced that Win XP SP3 would soon be available, and announced that Win XP was being ported to the OLPC and the other computers like it. The message seemed to be that Win XP had been granted an indefinite reprieve, at least until Vista could either be replaced or fixed.

You have to wonder now if Microsoft is so confident that Vista SP1 will win businesses over to Vista that they are hesitating to release XP SP3 out of fear it will only discourage the move to Vista.

I really think Microsoft has no idea where to go with this. If Vista sales improve substantially as a result of Vista SP1, I would not be surprised in the least to see XP SP3 get axed completely.

 

[lookin4sum1icantrust]

Microsoft is really funny when it comes to updating. When a operating system that is good comes out by Microsoft like 2000 & XP they always want to upgrade to a whole new operating system to get more money out of us. Lots of people don't like vista and it has so many bugs, but Microsoft doesn't really care just as long as they make money.

 

[D-Base]

As far as I know SP3 = SP1 + SP2 + updates you have refused from "automatic updates" in the past.

Who needs it then?

 

[Jannus]

I think we will end up with a new version of Windows (that they've already sent out for testing) so we will have another 98SE - ME - XP situation but instead now we'll have XP - Vista - Windows 7 (whatever they decide to call it).

I'm not actually comparing Vista to ME though I know many already do but stating it moreso in the sense that they might leapfrog Vista.

One of the problems with Microsoft is that they are paranoid secretive about everything. Even when telling the truth would help them enormously, they refuse to state their views or their intentions. That causes rumors to fly.

A lot of rumors recently suggested Microsoft had given up on Vista, and had sped up the development of Windows 7, to replace it. In fact, people were talking about a release of Windows 7 in 2010 - a few people in the industry even believed Windows 7 might appear as early as late 2009. Uncharacteristically, Microsoft has now denied this. Windows 7 is still officially scheduled for release in 2012.

Given Microsoft's history with Vista, I kind of doubt that there is a lot they can do to really speed up Windows 7. It seems that writing a modern operating system is an enormous, multi-billion dollar task for MS, and requires a considerable amount of time. That leaves us with four years of Vista, which MS - frankly - doesn't seem very enthusiastic about. Incredibly, Bill Gates himself seemed to acknowledge his reservations about Vista (albeit indirectly) during this interview with Gizmodo at CES:

http://gizmodo.com/342920/holy-crap-did-bill-gates-just-say-windows-sucks


So what will become of Vista and XP? I think MS is still trying to decide. I think they are going to hang onto XP indefinitely, while they try to hack away at Vista to improve some of its negatives. I think they will continue to try to push Vista and will only emphasize XP in particular markets. I think they will try to downplay XP overall. What this means for XP SP3, I bet MS has yet to decide.

Microsoft is really funny when it comes to updating. When a operating system that is good comes out by Microsoft like 2000 & XP they always want to upgrade to a whole new operating system to get more money out of us. Lots of people don't like vista and it has so many bugs, but Microsoft doesn't really care just as long as they make money.

One of the big problems for Vista has been its failure to offer value beyond that already present in Windows XP. Perhaps because Microsoft has a monopoly, they assumed whatever they offered would sell. They overlooked the possibility that people might simply choose to do nothing. That is, they might just stay with XP.

The computer industry is maturing. It is analogous to the automobile industry in about 1930. A 1904 Winton was a big improvement over a 1900 model, so you had lots of motivation to buy the new one. But a 1934 Packard is largely indistinguishable from a 1930 Packard. The auto industry managed by introducing the annual model change in 1928. Since your new model was not really mechanically better, you needed to shame people to upgrade on the basis of fashion. Rumble seats are out. Tail fins are in. Unfortunately for MS, the annual model change does not transfer well to OSs. No one ever sees my OS, or would likely care what I'm using if it they did. So long as the thing drives okay, I have no reason to upgrade. My car is invisible. I have no shame.

Microsoft has reached a point in software history where their business model no longer seems to work so well. The massive upgrade of OSs by everyone every few years may be a thing of the past. MS doesn't seem to know how to adapt to that. I think they understand that things have changed, and that they need to adapt or die. But I don't think they have any idea of what to do. They are trying to copy whomever they see around them who seems to be successful. Google gets it, so they will copy Google by buying Yahoo. Apple gets it, so they will copy the iPod with the Zune. People say lots of nice stuff about OS X, so here is Vista. Linux has unbreachable security, so here is User Account Controls.

There is nothing wrong with copying good things. That is how you improve a product. But Microsoft seems to copy even sometimes without grasping the underlying fundamentals. Too often, they just don't seem to get it.

Microsoft follows, but they do not lead. They are a company with an enormous repository of talent which they simply cannot mobilize to good effect, except very occasionally.

 

[Apollo]

Microsoft seems to be a bit schizophrenic with regard to Win XP.

When Vista debuted in January 2007, we were told Win XP would be not be available after January 30, 2008. Microsoft refused to say, but the word on the street was that there would be NO Win XP SP3. What would be the point of releasing a Service Pack for an OS that was being discontinued, and that Microsoft was trying to encourage users to replace with Vista, anyway?

Then, Vista failed to capture the excitement of business, the United Nations released its OLPC, a raft of cheap OLPC copycats hit the market, and even a couple of cheap desktop PCs appeared which *Gasp* were being sold to the public without Windows! The total market impact of all of these new machines has been almost nonexistent. But even the idea that a new computer could possibly be sold to the public without the obligation of purchase of a Windows license seems to have driven Microsoft into a panic. They delayed the extermination of Windows XP until June 30, 2008, announced that Win XP SP3 would soon be available, and announced that Win XP was being ported to the OLPC and the other computers like it. The message seemed to be that Win XP had been granted an indefinite reprieve, at least until Vista could either be replaced or fixed.

You have to wonder now if Microsoft is so confident that Vista SP1 will win businesses over to Vista that they are hesitating to release XP SP3 out of fear it will only discourage the move to Vista.

I really think Microsoft has no idea where to go with this. If Vista sales improve substantially as a result of Vista SP1, I would not be surprised in the least to see XP SP3 get axed completely.

what are you talking about? Microsoft didn't care about the OLpc. Yes they wanted their OS on there, but it isnt like they were concerned it would capture the market.

Apple only has 8 percent market share.

there are all types of computers coming out with Linux on them. The eePC, Dell is going to start providing laptops with Linux on them. Microsoft doesn't give a shit.

 

[mike_n_herrin]

/\ not true , IMO

XP is quicker & faster with sp3 even going back to Beta versions.

i agree actually. i like XP SP3, i've had no problems with it and it is noticeably faster, at least on my system.

 

[Spiff]

Considering that XP SP2 is more stable and performs better than Vista SP1, you're still ahead of the game if you don't get XP SP3. I'm still contemplating upgrading to XP from Vista.

 

[Jannus]

what are you talking about? Microsoft didn't care about the OLpc. Yes they wanted their OS on there, but it isnt like they were concerned it would capture the market.

Apple only has 8 percent market share.

there are all types of computers coming out with Linux on them. The eePC, Dell is going to start providing laptops with Linux on them. Microsoft doesn't give a shit.

From February 2006 to January 2008, Windows market share has dropped from 95.29% to 91.46%. Windows' market share is dropping at roughly 2% per year.

The Mac has risen from 4.31% to 7.57%. That is almost a doubling of market share in two years!

Linux has been stagnant, rising from 0.31% to 0.67%. That is more than a doubling of Linux share in two years, but it remains insignificant. Not even 1% of people out there are using Linux on their desktops.

But I think MS is (appropriately) scared to death of Linux. Microsoft has never had to compete with anything like Linux. You can't drive it out of business. You can't undercut it, copy it, and sell it for less than the originator when it's already free! It has no need to generate a profit. The entities behind its many distributions are legion. How do you sue five hundred or a thousand entities into oblivion? Are you prepared to defend the counter suits and counter claims of patent violation that you will unleash by such action? And even if you succeed in your lawsuits, you cannot stop coders from continuing to modify, use, and distribute the code on their own. Linux is too amorphous to attack. But the idea of Linux is very, very threatening to MS.

If software moves online in coming years, the OS on your computer will make absolutely no difference whatsoever. All you need is enough power to connect to the internet and launch a browser. How many users are going to pay $400 for an OS that is indistinguishable from a free one? How many computer manufacturers are going to pay MS a substantial license fee for every computer they make when they can offer a free alternative that works just as well? Microsoft's entire business model of its two divisions, Windows and Office, could become completely obsolete if Google Apps become the way to get things done. No more Windows. No more Office. No more Microsoft.

The cheap computer connected online without Windows is a new concept. Online apps are a new concept. It is not entirely clear that this model will catch on. Virtually no one I know does this. But some predict this is the way of the future. And Microsoft has no role in this model at all. No Windows. No Office. No Microsoft.

Linux is nothing, right now. Microsoft needs to make damn sure it stays that way. Linux and Google could destroy them. I say MS is very, very scared of Linux. And I think they have cause to be. If Linux ever breaks out of its tiny little pen, all hell is going to break loose!


http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=9&qpdt=1&qpct=4&qptimeframe=M&qpsp=85&qpnp=24


I don't mean to drift too much off the topic of the thread. This stuff is relevant to the extent that it impacts Microsoft's decision to keep XP or push Vista.

I think XP is going to live beyond its scheduled end of June 30, 2008. But I think MS is only going to push it in niche markets, perhaps as a tool to try to beat down the Linux threat on cheap computers. I think they'll be forced to release SP3 for XP eventually. I suspect the code is probably already done. They just don't want to make XP look too good right now, while they try to sell us Vista. XP SP3 is probably coming. Not sure how soon, though.

 

[Jannus]

^ No one ever uses Microsoft's on line services. Even 66% of Microsoft employees use Google for their internet searches at work!

That's why they're buying Yahoo.


http://blog.searchenginewatch.com/blog/060621-084820

 

[Apollo]

From February 2006 to January 2008, Windows market share has dropped from 95.29% to 91.46%. Windows' market share is dropping at roughly 2% per year.

The Mac has risen from 4.31% to 7.57%. That is almost a doubling of market share in two years!

Linux has been stagnant, rising from 0.31% to 0.67%. That is more than a doubling of Linux share in two years, but it remains insignificant. Not even 1% of people out there are using Linux on their desktops.

But I think MS is (appropriately) scared to death of Linux. Microsoft has never had to compete with anything like Linux. You can't drive it out of business. You can't undercut it, copy it, and sell it for less than the originator when it's already free! It has no need to generate a profit. The entities behind its many distributions are legion. How do you sue five hundred or a thousand entities into oblivion? Are you prepared to defend the counter suits and counter claims of patent violation that you will unleash by such action? And even if you succeed in your lawsuits, you cannot stop coders from continuing to modify, use, and distribute the code on their own. Linux is too amorphous to attack. But the idea of Linux is very, very threatening to MS.

If software moves online in coming years, the OS on your computer will make absolutely no difference whatsoever. All you need is enough power to connect to the internet and launch a browser. How many users are going to pay $400 for an OS that is indistinguishable from a free one? How many computer manufacturers are going to pay MS a substantial license fee for every computer they make when they can offer a free alternative that works just as well? Microsoft's entire business model of its two divisions, Windows and Office, could become completely obsolete if Google Apps become the way to get things done. No more Windows. No more Office. No more Microsoft.

The cheap computer connected online without Windows is a new concept. Online apps are a new concept. It is not entirely clear that this model will catch on. Virtually no one I know does this. But some predict this is the way of the future. And Microsoft has no role in this model at all. No Windows. No Office. No Microsoft.

Linux is nothing, right now. Microsoft needs to make damn sure it stays that way. Linux and Google could destroy them. I say MS is very, very scared of Linux. And I think they have cause to be. If Linux ever breaks out of its tiny little pen, all hell is going to break loose!


http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=9&qpdt=1&qpct=4&qptimeframe=M&qpsp=85&qpnp=24


I don't mean to drift too much off the topic of the thread. This stuff is relevant to the extent that it impacts Microsoft's decision to keep XP or push Vista.

I think XP is going to live beyond its scheduled end of June 30, 2008. But I think MS is only going to push it in niche markets, perhaps as a tool to try to beat down the Linux threat on cheap computers. I think they'll be forced to release SP3 for XP eventually. I suspect the code is probably already done. They just don't want to make XP look too good right now, while they try to sell us Vista. XP SP3 is probably coming. Not sure how soon, though.

Dude, I said Mac had 8% of the market. I listen to tech podcasts everyday. Mac isnt even a competitor to Windows.

Windows isnt worried about Linux at all. Despite Linux being around, the average person doesn't know what the hell Linux is. Furthermore, it isnt very user friendly. Ubuntu is the first OS where the average consumer could even fathom trying to use linux in everyday use without having to know some code. If Microsoft genuinely fears linux more than Apple, then they are crazy.

Actually, Microsoft has been doing online sales long before Apple. Ever heard of the Xbox? They have had online movie rentals forever before Apple TV take 2, and it has been pretty successful. And they now also have the Zune Marketplace with all DRM-free music on there. I haven't seen much video in the Marketplace, but it can only get better.

They also have the Zune. The Zune is actually a great MP3 player, and I actually find it better than the iPod. More features and a much better UI on the device, also cheaper price. Someone mentioned how Zune would have really given the iPod a run for it's money if it had come out a few years earlier.

The reason companies pay licensing fees for Windows is because Windows is what sells computers. Tell me, you walk into a store. You see a Windows machine, then you see a Linux machine, which one will you buy first? You know nothing about Linux, it isnt very user friendly, it doesn't have half the customer support of Windows.

Microsoft needs to focus on Apple more than Linux. You can get Linux natively on a computer through Dell, but you have to order it from Dell. It isn't going to be in the stores.

 

[Jannus]

^ Ignore the penguins at your peril.






They are small, now, yes








But they are coming.








They will destroy you.

[/IMG]

 

[Apollo]

Wow I am dense. I didn't piece together you were a linux guy. lol, i love ubuntu, but it is not something I could make my primary. The biggest problem for me is the video.

 

[Jannus]

i love ubuntu, but it is not something I could make my primary. The biggest problem for me is the video.

What video problem?

I know absolutely nothing about Linux, but I can't remember the last time I came across a video clip that wouldn't play in ubuntu 7.10. In fact, I'm not sure I ever have come across any video that would not play in ubuntu 7.10. I'm sure there must be some out there, but I haven't seen it myself. I did have that problem before version 7.04. (Versions of ubuntu prior to 7.04 didn't automatically find and download the codecs for you).

My hardware is very old, however (six or seven years).

 

[cityboy-stl]

I am totally confused. I was waiting for SP3 because I want to completely reinstall XP and then apply SP3. I do not want to reinstall, apply SP2 plus a zillion updates and then SP3 shows up a week later.

Is there, or isn't there going to be an "official" release of XP SP3?