Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)
sort of Breaking News:
Covid-19 kills the strong and healthy too (in Italy and China)
at 10.10
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/progra...virus-only-kills-the-old-think-again/12058160
So, what people are getting confused about is mortality vs morbidity stats. Mortality is the population that dies. Morbidity is the population that gets sick.
The mortality group is overwhelming over 60 years of age. The risk of death for age 60-70 is about 3%, age 70-80 the risk is 8% and for those over 80, it jumps to 15%. The elderly die pretty quickly from pneumonia, especially if they are in poor health. For those under 60, the risk of dying drops to 1% or lower (which is still 100 times the risk for influenza).
The morbidity group is younger because they are getting sick but they aren't dying. France is reporting that more than half of their 300 coronavirus patients in intensive care are under the age of 60. Don't assume that because you are under 60 that you can't get very sick- especially if you are a smoker, a diabetic, HIV+ or if you have a chronic health condition. If you have a chronic health condition, you should be avoiding crowds and washing your hands frequently.
It's true that most healthy people who get sick are getting a high fever for a couple of days, along with a dry cough and extreme fatigue. What is worrisome is that the studies coming out of China indicate that these people with mild symptoms can shed virus for days or even weeks- which means that they can pass on the virus to people who aren't as healthy and who will get severely ill. That's why governments are trying to get people to stay home and avoid crowds- because the people who think they are healthy can still be transmitting the virus. The measures that China took to get people out of the public space are extreme but it worked- they stopped the spread of the virus... at least, so far they have.
4165 in Madrid (213 dead) and 903 in Catalonia (12 dead), with a very similar population, but with one fourth or total area for Madrid. They stopped publishing the cases for Barcelona and his area a few days ago already: last Wednesday, when the total for Catalonia was 125, in Barcelona it was reported as being "over 70"... You bet at least half of those 900 are in the denser part of the BCN metro area, about 250 sq mi.
Today the second stupidest episode after the 3/8 marches: people who were going to work as exception to confinement were clotting mass transportation in Madrid and Barcelona, and the fact that some of them had advanced their travelling before the usual rush hour hardly served to make worse what was a disaster form the start.
So, while the surface was H-bomb scenery, at underground level the immediate future kept broiling...
In the US, we have a few governors on the West Coast and Northeast are being very proactive to stop the Italy/France/Spain scenario from playing out. In the South, we have a lot of people who are still in denial because the testing numbers are still low. Thankfully, we don't have a lot mass transit in the Southwestern and Southern US, when compared to Boston, NYC and Washington DC. But people are still going to work, the gym and clearing out the stores of toilet paper.
The Winter Party still happened in Miami as if nothing were happening in Florida, even though the mayor of Miami was at home in quarantine because he was exposed last weekend and has mild cold symptoms.
