On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[cityboy-stl]

What has become apparent now that we're doing testing via nasal swab, is that there is a large population of people who are transmitting the virus from their nasal passages and they have no idea that they are infected. These people, if they have symptoms, think they "have allergies" or they may feel perfectly fine.

When they go outside with a mask on, they may be thinking, "I'll put on a mask so that I don't get the virus" when in fact, they have the virus and the mask is blocking droplets from their nose and mouth from getting into the air.

At one point, the Chinese were flying drones in Wuhan and threatening to arrest anyone walking on the street who didn't have on a mask. This hints that they viewed the masks as preventing transmission of the virus, even if it was actually stopping infected people from shedding virus into the public spaces.

It's not unreasonable either to think allergies given that its late March and the pollen/mold counts are high. I feel like I do every year at this time. I wouldn't know how to tell the difference. I wonder if nasal and sinus irrigation would flush out some virus or even kill it deep in the sinuses, if you have it? I guess it would. I do this regularly anyway during allergy season, salt, baking soda, about 30 drops H2O2, 60ml warm water in a Waterpik. Feels great.

 

[cityboy-stl]

^^ I meant 600ml warm water ~21oz. Fill up the tank and flush it through.

 

[KaraBulut]

2,477 New Jersey law enforcement officers in self-quarantine?

New Jersey reports 288 law enforcement officers have Covid-19 [CNN]

At least 288 law enforcement officers across New Jersey have tested positive for Covid-19 as of Monday, Col. Patrick J. Callahan, superintendent of the State Police, said at a news conference.

He said 2,477 law enforcement officers are in self-quarantine and an additional 618 officers are out for other reasons, including sickness or injury.

 

[KaraBulut]

This is an interesting case study: a tech company did a scan of the cell phones on a single beach in Fort Lauderdale during Spring Break. They then tracked those cell phones to see where they went after Spring Break was over.

They posted a video on their Twitter feed.

They also did the same thing for phones in NYC:

 

[KaraBulut]

31-Mar-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported: 788,522 (up from 737,929) - **‬*50,593‬ new cases yesterday
- Deaths: 37,878 (up from 35,019) - ****2,859‬ people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 164,610 cases (up from 143,055 yesterday, ‬***21,555‬‬‬ new cases)
- Deaths reported in the US - 3,170 deaths, **657 deaths yesterday, 22% of the world's new deaths were in the US


Across the globe:

• Updates will come in over the next few hours that will send the number of cases to over 800,000.
• Australia and New Zealand have a statistical anomaly - cases in the 20 to 29 year old group is higher than the cases in 30 to 39 year olds. No one is sure why.
• China has not been consistent in reporting their cases. In particular, they have not been reporting test results in people who were asymptomatic. China has announced that they will begin including asympotomic positives.
• The numbers were lower for Italy. Spain and France continue to be variable.
• -----Italy had 4,050 new cases today. New deaths were 812.
• -----Spain had 9,222 new cases- the highest ever reported for Spain. New deaths were still high at 849.
• -----France reported 4,424 new cases and 419 new deaths.

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries:

• Italy - 101,739 cases (up from 97,689) - 11,591 deaths.
• Spain - 94,417 (up from 85,195) - 8,189 deaths
• Germany - 67,051 cases (up from 62,435) - 650 deaths
• Iran - 44,605 cases (up from 38,309) - 2,898 deaths
• France - 45,171 cases (up from 40,747) - 3,030 deaths
• UK - 22,465 cases (up from 19,788) - 1,412 deaths
• Switzerland - 15,922 cases (up from 15,069) - 359 deaths
• Netherlands - 11,817 cases (up from 10,930) - 865 deaths
• Turkey - 10,827 cases (from 9,217) - 168 deaths
• Canada - 7,448 cases (up from 6,320) - 89 deaths
• Australia - 4,550 cases (up from 4,203) - 18 deaths
• Brazil - 4,661 (up from 4,256 cases) - 165 deaths
• Ireland - 2,910 (up from 2,615) - 54 deaths
• India - 1,251 (up from 1,071) - 32 deaths
• Mexico - 1,094 (up from 993) - 28 deaths
• New Zealand - 647 (up from 589) - 1 death

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• China - 82,272 (up from 82,198) 3,309 deaths / 76,203 recovered
• South Korea - 9,786 cases (up from 9,661) - 162 deaths / 5,408 recovered

United States updates:

• When Cuomo does his update today, New York state will report 67,404 new cases, and 1,218 new deaths. NYC has a disproportionate amount of those statistics - NYC has over 38,000+ cases (~56%) with 914 deaths (75%)
  More than 186,000 people have been tested for the coronavirus in New York State in March, about 1 percent of the state’s population.
• In Boston, 342 healthcare workers have tested positive for coronovirus.
• Across the Federal and State prison system, coronavirus cases continue to appear in both the prison population and the employees. Because of extended sentencing like the 3 strikes laws, there is a large population of prisoners over the age of 50. In NYC, nearly 170 inmates and almost 140 staff members had tested positive at the city’s jails, including the Rikers Island complex. In Louisiana, there were 14 confirmed cases among inmates (including 1 death) and 13 cases among staff.
• The US has been ignoring a problem in Puerto Rico where tourism is high and healthcare infrastructure is poor. Cases in Puerto Rico went from 127 to 239 (88% increase!).
• Other States where there were significant day-to-day increases were Arizona (26%), California (24%), District of Columbia (23%), Idaho (34%), Iowa (26%), Nebraska (43%) and Rhode Island (39%).

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 66,497 (up from 59,513) - 1,218 deaths
• New Jersey - 16,636 (up from 13,386) - 198 deaths
• Washington - 4,896 (up from 4,310) - 217 deaths
• California - 5,763 (up from 4,643) - 135 deaths
• Michigan - 6,498 (up from 5,486) - 184 deaths
• Massachusetts - 5,752 (up from 4,955) - 56 deaths
• Florida - 5,695 (up from 4,944) - 70 deaths
• Illinois - 5,057 (up from 4,596) - 73 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 4,087 (up from 3,394) - 48 deaths
• Louisiana - 4,025 cases (up from 3,540) - 185 deaths
• Georgia - 3,032 (up from 2,683) - 102 deaths
• Texas - 2,877 (up from 2,552) - 38 deaths
• Colorado - 2,627 (up from 2,307) - 51 deaths
• Connecticut - 2,571 (up from 1,993) - 36 deaths
• Tennessee - 1,834 (up from 1,537) - 13 deaths
  

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 690 (up from 661) - 8 deaths
• British Columbia - 970 (up from 884) - 19 deaths
• Manitoba - 96 (up from 72) - 1 deaths
• New Brunswick - 68 (up from 66) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 148 (up from 135) - 1 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 1 (unchanged from 1) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 148 (up from 122) - 0 deaths
• Ontario - 1,706 (up from 1,355) - 32 deaths
• Quebec - 3,430 (up from 2,850) - 25 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 18 (up from 11) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 176 (up from 156) - 2 deaths
• Yukon - 5 cases (up from 4) - 0 deaths

There were also 13 Canadians on the Grand Princess, one of whom died.

 

[zoltanspawn]

I'm very pleased to read about the development of serological testing and possible means of implementation:

One model for how the screening could be used is being tested in Telluride, Colo., where United Biomedical is offering serology tests to all 8,000 residents of San Miguel County. Positive results will be treated as presumptive active infections and health officials will recommend self-isolation for 14 days, said Susan Lilly, public information officer for the county. Those people will be directed to get the nasal swab test that is being used widely across the United States to confirm infection.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/31/coronavirus-serology-blood-tests/

Amongst the many things we need right now, like good leaders and more ventilators, I think this is amongst the most important.

 

[rareboy]

On the subject of masks:

https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/c...here-is-new-scientific-rationale-280e08ceee71

 

[Telstra]

i think everyone wearing mask is a very good idea during the spread.
i disagree with experts saying don't wear mask if you are healthy (''waste of mask''. Mask only cost $1 or 2 dollars'')

 

[mcbrion]

Thanks for the informative graphic!

 

[KaraBulut]

This is really, really not good.

It's a failure of the American governmental system where we have a tiered system of Federal, State, County, City, etc levels that are doing different things. This is when we need strong leadership at the Federal and State level, which we don't have in a lot of the government.

The problem we're seeing is that we have some cities (usually in Democratic areas) that implemented social distancing or stay at home orders in mid-March. We have other municipalities who have not. We have some States (e.g. California) that put in social distancing measures, other states that haven't (e.g. Mississippi) and other States that can't figure out WTF they are doing (e.g. Florida).

We are seeing improvements in the curve in cities like Austin, Texas and the state of Ohio where measures were put in early. It's the West Coast and the NY Tri-state area that are distorting the curve. Total US cases this morning= 161,021. NY (66,497), NJ (16,636) and CT(2,571)= **85,704‬ (53% of all cases) in 3 states.

On the subject of masks:

https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/c...here-is-new-scientific-rationale-280e08ceee71

This is a good illustration.

There was one study that came out last week that said that, under ideal conditions (e.g. no wind), SAR-CoV-2 could remain suspended in droplets in the air for as long as 3 hours.

 

[KaraBulut]

26-Mar-2020:
Additional reporting on COVID-19 in the military. It's just amazing how many places the virus has reached and how quickly it spreads:
Rapid increase in coronavirus cases aboard US aircraft carrier [CNN]

There are now 23 sailors who have tested positive for the coronavirus aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, just two days after the Pentagon announced that three sailors aboard the ship had tested positive for the virus, a Navy official has confirmed to CNN...

The Roosevelt is in the process of pulling into Guam, according to Modly. "No one on the crew will be allowed to leave anywhere into Guam, other than on pier side," he said.

The ship was last in port in Vietnam more than two weeks ago. It is not clear where the sailors initially contracted the virus. The Navy is now in the process of flying all personnel off the ship.

Update to a 26-March post... and it's not good news:

Exclusive: Captain of aircraft carrier with growing coronavirus outbreak pleads for help from Navy [San Francisco Chronicle]

The captain of a nuclear aircraft carrier with more than 100 sailors infected with the coronavirus pleaded Monday with U.S. Navy officials for resources to allow isolation of his entire crew and avoid possible deaths in a situation he described as quickly deteriorating.

The unusual plea from Capt. Brett Crozier, a Santa Rosa native, came in a letter obtained exclusively by The Chronicle and confirmed by a senior officer on board the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, which has been docked in Guam following a COVID-19 outbreak among the crew of more than 4,000 less than a week ago.

 

[cityboy-stl]

There was one study that came out last week that said that, under ideal conditions (e.g. no wind), SAR-CoV-2 could remain suspended in droplets in the air for as long as 3 hours.

I was wondering about this. I heard a doctor (I think a doctor) on NPR radio yesterday saying the air suspension wasn't true. That it dissipated right away. I can't find anything written about it though. I will try again to find something.

 

[KaraBulut]

I was wondering about this. I heard a doctor (I think a doctor) on NPR radio yesterday saying the air suspension wasn't true. That it dissipated right away. I can't find anything written about it though. I will try again to find something.

I found the citation in a WHO update linked below. What's noteworthy is that they're making a distinction between "airborne" virus and "droplets". The emphasis is that moist droplets from a sneeze or cough are more likely to persist in the air (and the NEJM study mentions up to 3 hours).

In the image the rareboy posted, it provides a visual image of this- the force of a sneeze or cough propels droplets into the air for a larger distance and (according to the NEJM article) these droplets remain in the air for some time.

On the other hand, normal breathing is also another means by which virus particles could become airborne but in the absence of a sneeze or cough, any virus would not be propelled a long distance and because droplets would not be present in large quantities, virus would not be expected to persist in the air for as long a period of time.

Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations [WHO]

A recent publication in the New England Journal of Medicine has evaluated virus persistence of the COVID-19 virus.10 In this experimental study, aerosols were generated using a three-jet Collison nebulizer and fed into a Goldberg drum under controlled laboratory conditions. This is a high-powered machine that does not reflect normal human cough conditions. Further, the finding of COVID-19 virus in aerosol particles up to 3 hours does not reflect a clinical setting in which aerosol-generating procedures are performed—that is, this was an experimentally induced aerosol-generating procedure.

 

[rareboy]

A model of resource use based on physical distancing continuing to May 30, 2020.

About 94,000 deaths, a shortage of 84,000 beds and 18,905 ICU beds at the peak...expected in about 2 weeks.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/?fbclid=IwAR3tK3d2MIuGeXLDExj_j5YPv_HgBJXmIpQA_laF2fYIS0rwlAnnAWuFrcE

 

[ChristianGianni]

 

[NotHardUp1]

I think it interesting that there is speculation about bats and implication of contamination via eating them.

It would seem far more likely that fruit was contaminated by bats feeding on flowers, fruit, or nesting in the trees, and the fruit simply carrying fecal contamination to humans. No?

 

[Telstra]

Dr John Ioannidis of Stanford University said
many people infected with covid19 have no symptoms or very mild symptoms, and some have severe life/death symptoms.
That means everybody with a tiny symptoms must be tested at the very least correct?

 

[KaraBulut]

1-Apr-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported: 874,081 (up from 788,522) - *‬*85,559‬ new cases yesterday
- Deaths: 43,291 (up from 37,878) - **5,413‬ people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 189,633 cases (up from 164,610 yesterday, ‬**25,023‬‬‬‬ new cases)
- Deaths reported in the US - 4,081 deaths, **911 deaths yesterday, 17% of the world's new deaths were in the US


Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries:

• Italy - 105,792 cases (up from 101,739) - 12,428 deaths.
• Spain - 102,136 (up from 94,417) - 9,053 deaths
• Germany - 72,383 cases (up from 67,051) - 788 deaths
• Iran - 47,593 cases (up from 44,605) - 3,036 deaths
• France - 52,836 cases (up from 45,171) - 3,532 deaths
• UK - 25,504 cases (up from 22,465) - 1,793 deaths
• Switzerland - 16,605 cases (up from 15,922) - 433 deaths
• Turkey - 13,531 cases (up from 10,827) - 214 deaths
• Netherlands - 12,677 cases (up from 11,817) - 1,041 deaths
• Canada - 8,591 cases (up from 7,448) - 102 deaths
• Brazil - 5,812 (up from 4,661 cases) - 202 deaths
• Australia - 4,862 cases (up from 4,550) - 20 deaths
• Ireland - 3,235 (up from 2,910) - 71 deaths
• India - 1,590 (up from 1,251) - 45 deaths
• Mexico - 1,215 (up from 1,094) - 29 deaths
• New Zealand - 708 (up from 647) - 1 death

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• China - (up from 82,272) 3,316 deaths / 76,382 recovered
• South Korea - cases (up from 9,786) - 165 deaths / 5,567 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 75,795 (up from 66,497 / 14.0%) - 1,550 deaths
• New Jersey - 18,696 (up from 16,636 / 12.4%) - 267 deaths
• Michigan - 7,615 (up from 6,498 / 17.2%) - 259 deaths
• California - 6,932 (up from 5,763 / 20.3%) - 150 deaths
• Florida - 6,732 (up from 5,695 / 18.2%) - 84 deaths
• Massachusetts - 6,620 (up from 5,752 / 15.1%) - 89 deaths
• Illinois - 5,994 (up from 5,057 / 18.5%) - 99 deaths
• Louisiana - 5,237 cases (up from 4,025 / 30.1%) - 239 deaths
• Washington - 5,222 (up from 4,896 / 6.7%) - 228 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 4,843 (up from 4,087 / 18.5%) - 63 deaths
• Georgia - 4,117 (up from 3,032 / 35.8%) - 125 deaths
• Texas - 3,266 (up from 2,877 / 13.5%) - 41 deaths
• Connecticut - 3,128 (up from 2,571 / 21.7%) - 69 deaths
• Colorado - 2,966 (up from 2,627 / 12.9%) - 69 deaths
• Tennessee - 2,239 (up from 1,834 / 22.1%) - 23 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 754 (up from 690 / 9.3%) - 9 deaths
• British Columbia - 1,013 (up from 970 / 4.4%) - 24 deaths
• Manitoba - 103 (up from 96 / 7.3%) - 1 deaths
• New Brunswick - 70 (up from 68 / 2.9%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 152 (up from 148 / 2.7%) - 1 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 1 (unchanged from 1) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 147 (up from 148) - 0 deaths
• Ontario - 1,966 (up from 1,706 / 15.2%) - 33 deaths
• Quebec - 4,162 (up from 3,430 / 21.3%) - 31 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 21 (up from 18 / 16.7%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 184 (up from 176 / 4.5%) - 2 deaths
• Yukon - 5 cases (unchanged from 5) - 0 deaths

There were also 13 Canadians on the Grand Princess, one of whom died.

 

[opinterph]

… I heard a doctor (I think a doctor) on NPR radio yesterday saying the air suspension wasn't true. That it dissipated right away. I can't find anything written about it though. I will try again to find something.

You probably heard an interview with Dr. Hanan Balkhy, assistant director-general for antimicrobial resistance at the World Health Organization. He stated that evidence suggests that the virus is not airborne, but cautioned everyone to regard that conclusion as preliminary.

World Health Organization Antimicrobial Expert Explains Transmission Of Coronavirus (NPR; March 30, 2020)


KELLY: The question of airborne versus droplets - airborne would be - what? - a worst-case scenario, meaning it might be able to linger in the air, and people could - would have a better chance of breathing it in.

BALKHY: Absolutely. Not only will it be able to linger in, but actually, it can be disseminated through air currents way much easier than the pathogens that are primarily transmitted through droplet routes. So...

KELLY: So is this a tiny piece of good news that it appears not to be airborne, that it is spread via droplets?

BALKHY: Definitely.


… KELLY: So if I hear you correctly, you're not discounting other studies or other views on this. You're just saying until we have solid evidence otherwise, past similar coronaviruses and what evidence we do have thus far points to it being mostly spread by droplets, not airborne.

BALKHY: Yes, absolutely.

In a March 28th NPR article, Dr. Donald Milton, an infectious disease aerobiologist at the University of Maryland's School of Public Health, disputed the WHO’s conclusion that the COVID-19 virus was only/primarily spread through respiratory droplets.

WHO Reviews 'Current' Evidence On Coronavirus Transmission Through Air (NPR; March 28, 2020)

The World Health Organization says the virus that causes COVID-19 doesn't seem to linger in the air or be capable of spreading through the air over distances of more than about 3 feet.

But at least one expert in virus transmission said it's way too soon to know that.


... The WHO says that "according to current evidence," the virus is transmitted through "respiratory droplets and contact routes." By that, the agency means the virus is found in the kind of big droplets of mucus or saliva created through coughing and sneezing.

These droplets can travel only short distances through the air and either land on people or land on surfaces that people later touch.


… Other viruses, however, get shed by infected people in a way that lets the germs actually hang suspended in the air for minutes or even hours. Later, these airborne viruses can get breathed in when other people pass by.

 

[KaraBulut]

Dr John Ioannidis of Stanford University said
many people infected with covid19 have no symptoms or very mild symptoms, and some have severe life/death symptoms.
That means everybody with a tiny symptoms must be tested at the very least correct?

Only if you plan to put the people who test positive into isolation. And you don't test based upon symptoms- you test everyone that you can.

If you don't isolate positives, then you've wasted a test.