On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[ClubLevelVegan]

This just makes me sad.

There has been a 90% increase in Covid-19 cases in US children in the last four weeks, report says

 

[KaraBulut]

This just makes me sad.

There has been a 90% increase in Covid-19 cases in US children in the last four weeks, report says

The signs ahead aren't good for the States that are opening their public schools.

Florida's Covid-19 cases in children have increased 137% in past month [CNN]

Florida's number of official Covid-19 cases in children has more than doubled over the past month, data from the state showed Tuesday.

Covid-19 cases among children also spiked across the country during roughly the same period.

In Florida, the total number of cases in children 17 and under rose from 16,797 on July 9 to 39,735 on August 9 -- an increase of 137%, according to Florida Department of Health data.

Update: 826 students under quarantine in Cherokee after possible COVID-19 exposures [Atlanta Journal Constitution]

In the six days that Cherokee County schools have been in session, the North Georgia district has had to direct 826 students to quarantine due to possible exposure to COVID-19, along with 42 teachers.

When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well. [NY Time]

Confident it had beaten the coronavirus and desperate to reboot a devastated economy, the Israeli government invited the entire student body back in late May.

Within days, infections were reported at a Jerusalem high school, which quickly mushroomed into the largest outbreak in a single school in Israel, possibly the world.

The virus rippled out to the students’ homes and then to other schools and neighborhoods, ultimately infecting hundreds of students, teachers and relatives.

Other outbreaks forced hundreds of schools to close. Across the country, tens of thousands of students and teachers were quarantined.

Israel’s advice for other countries?

“They definitely should not do what we have done,”...

 

[KaraBulut]

Last week, New Zealand lifted all of their restrictions after weeks without any community-acquired cases of COVID-19... and then...

New Zealand reinstates coronavirus restrictions after first locally-transmitted case in 102 days [CNN]

New Zealand has reintroduced coronavirus restrictions in parts of the country after new locally transmitted cases broke the 102-day streak the country had gone without recording a local infection.

New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern confirmed four new locally transmitted coronavirus cases on Tuesday night, and announced that New Zealand's most populous city, Auckland, will temporarily see level three restrictions introduced for three days starting from midday on Wednesday.

 

[KaraBulut]

11-Aug-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 20,196,850 (up from 20,001,019 / 1.0%) - *‬*195,831 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 738,910 (up from 733,897) - **5,013 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 5,138,850 cases (up from 5,085,821 / 1.0% yesterday), ‬**53,029 new cases, 27.1% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 1,111 (2.1%), outside NJ/NY - 51,918 (97.9%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 164,502 deaths, 1,132 deaths yesterday , 22.6% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 18 (1.6%), outside NJ/NY - 1,092 (98.4%)
- Testing: - 63,252,257 tests (up from 62,513,174 yesterday, +739,083 tests), 19.2% of the US population has been tested, 8.1% positive rate

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US: 5,138,850 (up from 5,085,821 / +53,029 / 1.1%) - 164,502 deaths (+1,132)
• Brazil: 3,057,470 (up from 3,057,470 / +0 / 0.0%) - 101,752 deaths (+0)
• India: 2,268,675 (up from 2,215,074 / +53,601 / 2.5%) - 45,257 deaths (+871)
• Mexico: 485,836 (up from 480,278 / +5,558 / 1.2%) - 53,003 deaths (+705)
• Iran : 331,189 (up from 328,844 / +2,345 / 0.7%) - 18,800 deaths (+184)
• Spain : 326,612 (up from 322,980 / +3,632 / 1.2%) - 28,581 deaths (+5)
• France : 239,355 (up from 239,306 / +49 / 0.0%) - 30,328 deaths (+1)
• Belgium: 74,620 (up from 74,152 / +468 / 0.6%) - 9,879 deaths (+7)
• Netherlands : 60,940 (up from 59,991 / +949 / 1.6%) - 6,180 deaths (+2)
• Japan: 50,302 (up from 49,608 / +694 / 1.4%) - 1,058 deaths (+6)
• Australia : 22,124 (up from 21,728 / +396 / 1.9%) - 352 deaths (+30)

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Russia: 895,691 (up from 890,799 / +4,892 / 0.6%) - 15,103 deaths (+130)
• UK : 313,394 (up from 313,390 / +4 / 0.0%) - 46,611 deaths (+0)
• Italy : 251,237 (up from 250,825 / +412 / 0.2%) - 35,215 deaths (+6)
• Turkey: 243,180 (up from 241,997 / +1,183 / 0.5%) - 5,873 deaths (+15)
• Germany : 219,540 (up from 218,508 / +1,032 / 0.5%) - 9,208 deaths (+5)
• Canada : 122,389 (up from 122,053 / +336 / 0.3%) - 9,038 deaths (+4)
• China: 88,939 (up from 88,862 / +77 / 0.1%) - 4,693 deaths (+4)
• Sweden: 83,126 (up from 82,972 / +154 / 0.2%) - 5,770 deaths (+4)
• Switzerland : 36,895 (up from 36,708 / +187 / 0.5%) - 1,990 deaths (+3)
• Ireland: 26,801 (up from 26,768 / +33 / 0.1%) - 1,773 deaths (+1)
• South Korea : 14,660 (up from 14,626 / +34 / 0.2%) - 305 deaths (+0)
• New Zealand: 1,570 (up from 1,569 / +1 / 0.1%) - 22 deaths (+0)

 

[Telstra]

Last week, New Zealand lifted all of their restrictions after weeks without any community-acquired cases of COVID-19... and then...

New Zealand reinstates coronavirus restrictions after first locally-transmitted case in 102 days [CNN]

twitter says the new cases are from imported meat from the US.

 

[KaraBulut]

twitter says the new cases are from imported meat from the US.

Twitter is full of Russian-sponsored and Chinese-sponsored disinformation.

 

[rareboy]

twitter says the new cases are from imported meat from the US.

This is why you shouldn't be paying attention to twitter.

The theory is pure nonsense.

 

[rareboy]

11-Aug-2020:


US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 5,138,850 cases (up from 5,085,821 / 1.0% yesterday), ‬**53,029 new cases, 27.1% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 1,111 (2.1%), outside NJ/NY - 51,918 (97.9%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 164,502 deaths, 1,132 deaths yesterday , 22.6% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 18 (1.6%), outside NJ/NY - 1,092 (98.4%)
- Testing: - 63,252,257 tests (up from 62,513,174 yesterday, +739,083 tests), 19.2% of the US population has been tested, 8.1% positive rate


[*]Canada : 122,389 (up from 122,053 / +336 / 0.3%) - 9,038 deaths (+4)

[/LIST]

I truly do despair. We are never going to see American family and friends again at this rate.

 

[belamyi]

^ So this must be the Rapture.

 

[Telstra]

This is why you shouldn't be paying attention to twitter.

The theory is pure nonsense.

Virus freeze and live for years, its possible and logical !!!
The suspicion about imported meat are from New Zealand people themselves and not from other countries.

 

[KaraBulut]

I truly do despair. We are never going to see American family and friends again at this rate.

I have a group of friends- some of whom are US expats living and working abroad and some of whom are immigrants to the US whose families live abroad. All are in the same boat of having to maintain contact with friends and family via video conference with no idea of when they'll be able to travel to see them in person.


The US daily case numbers are still undercounted.

At the end of July, the US peaked with daily testing numbers that were in the 850K to 1 million tests per day. For the past two weeks, that number has dropped about 20% - we're testing between 650K and 750K people per day now. That might be read as an indicator that fewer people are symptomatic and therefore, fewer people are seeking out testing centers. That's not the case here. Daily positivity rates are flat to increasing slightly.

• Arizona peaked at around 27% positivity and they've dropped to 12% this week. Total cases - 188,737. Status: decreased positivity but still running 200% over normal.
• California has been flat - they plateaued at between 6%-7% for the past month. Total cases: 578,946. Status: flat but running 100% over expected normal.
• Florida peaked at around 20% and they've been running about 17% the past week. Total cases: 542,792. Status: decreased positivity but still running 300% over normal.
• Georgia has been running flat - around 3.5%-4% for the past 6 weeks. Total cases: 222,588. Status: in line with expected rates.
• Mississippi has gone from 4% to % in the past month. Total cases: 68,293. Status; cases increasing, too few tests.
• Missouri has gone from 5% to 13% in the past month. Total cases: 61,440. Status; cases increasing, too few tests.
• South Carolina has gone from 11% to 15% in the past month. Total cases: 102,130. Status: cases increasing, too few tests.
• Texas has increased from 15% in early July to 20% last week. Total cases: 516,904. Status: cases increasing, too few tests.

 

[Kahaih]

Do you know if anyone has been refused a test?

If a person is "diagnosed" with a "could be, let's wait and see", without testing, there would be no test result to report/add to the daily count.

I wouldn't be surprised to find that some medical professionals feel that they have enough experience, by now, to be able to bypass the test, and keep their local reports looking favourable.

 

[KaraBulut]

Do you know if anyone has been refused a test?

If a person is "diagnosed" with a "could be, let's wait and see", without testing, there would be no test result to report/add to the daily count.

I wouldn't be surprised to find that some medical professionals feel that they have enough experience, by now, to be able to bypass the test, and keep their local reports looking favourable.

People are still being refused testing in the US, although the reason has changed from the period between March and May where the testing infrastructure couldn't handle the rush of people who wanted to be tested.

Currently, most States have an adequate number of testing sites, although areas of the South and Southwest are having issues because there is a heat wave and the outdoor testing locations can't have their workers in PPE when temperatures are in the 90F to 110F range.

There are still two issues with testing sites that are run by State public health departments: a shortage of testing supplies and slow turnaround in test results. Both issues are tied to the poor response of the White House and Trump's refusal to coordinate mass-testing at the Federal level. In April, the White House promised that there would be 5 million people tested per day. Currently, we're testing between 650K and 750K people per day... not anywhere near the numbers that the White House promised.

The public official in charge of testing, Adm Brett Giroir, is competent and has been good about addressing issues when governors' complaints about shortages and turnaround. There are still reports of results from public testing centers taking 3-7 days to get results. Unfortunately, the White House has refused to use the full powers of the Federal government to address testing supply shortage and to develop a unified testing and contact strategy.

Contact tracing is hopeless at the moment. Most States haven't hired nearly enough contact tracers. Most States don't have penalties for citizens who don't cooperate with contact tracers. Even with cooperation, having 50,000+ new cases every day is way beyond what contact tracers can handle.

 

[KaraBulut]

Virus freeze and live for years, its possible and logical !!!
The suspicion about imported meat are from New Zealand people themselves and not from other countries.

Every now and then, someone brings up the possibility of getting an STI from a toilet seat. These things fall into the realm of the possible but are highly unlikely scenarios. Coronavirus spreads through person to person contact and it's extremely rare to find other methods of infection. In an earlier post, Alistair provided a relative risk chart of situations and activities that pose different levels of risk. What they have in common is risk of physical contact with an infected person.

If you go and read legitimate journalistic source (i.e. not Twitter, not YouTube), you would discover that one of the 4 NZ new cases yesterday was someone who worked in a US-owned cold storage facility and the public health officials are trying to figure out if that person contracted it at work. They are considering whether imported items might be the source but it's more likely that a coworkers was asymptomatic and was the source of the infection. Today, NZ had more new cases and they were from people who recently traveled abroad, so there are infected people still entering the country via travel.

 

[ChristianGianni]

 

[KaraBulut]

View attachment 1442751

Hopefully this works out okay for them. I wouldn't take it until it has been properly tested:

Russia’s approval of a COVID-19 vaccine is less than meets the press release [Science]

In a startling and confusing move, Russia claimed today it had approved the world’s first COVID-19 vaccine, as the nation’s Ministry of Health issued what’s called a registration certificate for a vaccine candidate that has been tested in just 76 people. The certificate allows the vaccine, developed by the Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology in Moscow, to be given to “a small number of citizens from vulnerable groups,” including medical staff and the elderly, a Ministry of Health spokesperson tells ScienceInsider. But the certificate stipulates that the vaccine cannot be used widely until 1 January 2021, presumably after larger clinical trials have been completed...

The vaccine consists of two shots that use different versions of adenoviruses, some of which cause the common cold, that Gamaleya researchers have engineered to carry the gene for the surface protein, or spike, of SARS-CoV-2. Apparently, the studies are comparing a single shot of adenovirus 26 with the spike gene to a scheme, known as prime-boost, that also gives a second dose 21 days later of a vaccine that contains the spike gene in adenovirus 5.

Some vaccine experts have raised concerns about COVID-19 vaccines that use adenovirus 5 in this way. In 2007, researchers stopped an HIV vaccine trial that used adenovirus 5 to shuttle in the gene for the surface protein of that virus after they found that it increased the likelihood of its transmission.

 

[cityboy-stl]

^ Which makes me wonder, are we any better? They keep saying we'll have something by the end of the year. But the end of the year is only 4 and a half months away. Are we really as close as they say? The phase 3 trials are just getting started. The 1978 hepatitis B phase 3 trial I was in took a couple of years, if I remember right. This seems quick. But technology has advanced and if Dr. Fauci says he believes that's enough to prove it is safe, I'll take it. I filled out the form to volunteer for a trial but I'm doubting they'll accept me. I'm probably too careful. I have not heard anything so far.

 

[KaraBulut]

^ Which makes me wonder, are we any better? They keep saying we'll have something by the end of the year. But the end of the year is only 4 and a half months away. Are we really as close as they say? The phase 3 trials are just getting started. The 1978 hepatitis B phase 3 trial I was in took a couple of years, if I remember right. This seems quick. But technology has advanced and if Dr. Fauci says he believes that's enough to prove it is safe, I'll take it. I filled out the form to volunteer for a trial but I'm doubting they'll accept me. I'm probably too careful. I have not heard anything so far.

One minor correction - in red above. "They" in this case is Trump. He's making up fictional dates that are too optimistic. His latest work of fiction is that there will be a vaccine by election day.

There are experts giving more reasonable estimates and they can be trusted to give reasonable dates - Fauci, Osterholm, Piot, Collins - these guys know their stuff and are very careful to give realistic, science-based information.

What Fauci has been saying lately:

• A vaccine will likely be available in the first quarter of 2021.
• Because of availability, the vaccine may be prioritized (e.g. healthcare workers might get it before the public does).
• It will likely require more than one shot (i.e. similar to HBV or HPV, it will require 2 or more shots several months apart)
• The early versions of the vaccine may not confer 100% immunity. Fauci's latest estimates are that about 80% of those who receive the shots will gain sufficient immunity after the shots.

I am inclined to believe Fauci's timeline. This will be the first vaccine that comes out after some major advances in virology that came out of the HIV epidemic. The last major vaccine that came out- the HPV vaccine- used some of these advances. For example, the HPV vaccine does not contain DNA or RNA and instead contains proteins similar to those in the papilloma virus which train the immune system to recognize and contain the virus. Some of the candidates for the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine use similar technology; instead of administering dead or weakened coronavirus, the vaccine will likely just contain proteins that train the immune system to produce a rapid immune response to SARS-CoV-2.

You mentioned phase 3 clinical trials - that's the phase were a larger test group gets the vaccine for both safety testing and to gauge their response when exposed to situations where they may contract the virus. It's also the point where the vaccine will be compared to a placebo.

It is very unlikely that the US would skimp out on phase 3 trials. Why? Three reasons:

1. In 1976, the US rushed out a vaccine for "swine flu". The vaccine was not properly mass-tested and after it was administered to the public, there were reports of severe side effects that damaged the reputation of vaccines and damaged the trust that the public has in vaccines.
2. After the swine flu debacle, Congress passed legislation that inadvertently made the US government liable for any adverse effects of future vaccine campaigns.
3. The shear number of people that will be vaccinated means that the government needs to get this right. The 1976 swine flu campaign administered about 45 million doses (about 25% of the eligible population) and there were around 500 adverse events. With SARS-CoV-2, it's going to require immunizing >60% of the eligible population to slow the spread of the virus- that's nearly 200 million people. They will need to get it right if they intend to immunize that large of a population in the US.

 

[KaraBulut]

12-Aug-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 20,550,481 (up from 20,196,850 / 1.8%) - *‬*353,631 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 747,845 (up from 738,910) - **8,935 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 5,193,266 cases (up from 5,138,850 / 1.1% yesterday), ‬**54,416 new cases, 15.4% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 1,163 (2.1%), outside NJ/NY - 53,253 (97.9%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 165,934 deaths, 1,132 deaths yesterday , 12.7% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 5 (0.3%), outside NJ/NY - 1,449 (99.7%)
- Testing: - 63,715,548 tests (up from 63,252,257 yesterday, +463,291 tests), 19.3% of the US population has been tested, 8.1% positive rate

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US: 5,193,266 (up from 5,138,850 / +54,416 / 1.1%) - 165,934 deaths (+1,132)
• Brazil: 3,164,785 (up from 3,057,470 / +107,315 / 3.5%) - 104,201 deaths (+2,449)
• India: 2,329,638 (up from 2,268,675 / +60,963 / 2.7%) - 46,091 deaths (+834)
• Mexico: 498,380 (up from 485,836 / +12,544 / 2.6%) - 54,666 deaths (+1,663)
• Iran : 333,699 (up from 331,189 / +2,510 / 0.8%) - 18,988 deaths (+184)
• Spain : 329,784 (up from 326,612 / +3,172 / 1.0%) - 28,579 deaths (+5)
• France : 244,088 (up from 239,355 / +4,733 / 2.0%) - 30,375 deaths (+1) - 2 day update
• Netherlands : 61,689 (up from 60,940 / +749 / 1.2%) - 6,182 deaths (+2)
• Japan: 51,278 (up from 50,302 / +976 / 1.9%) - 1,066 deaths (+8)
• Australia : 22,417 (up from 22,124 / +293 / 1.3%) - 361 deaths (+9)

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Russia: 900,745 (up from 895,691 / +5,054 / 0.6%) - 15,231 deaths (+128)
• UK : 315,564 (up from 313,394 / +2,170 / 0.7%) - 46,791 deaths (+180)
• Italy : 251,713 (up from 251,237 / +476 / 0.2%) - 35,225 deaths (+6)
• Turkey: 244,392 (up from 243,180 / +1,212 / 0.5%) - 5,891 deaths (+18)
• Germany : 220,859 (up from 219,540 / +1,319 / 0.6%) - 9,213 deaths (+5)
• Canada : 122,689 (up from 122,389 / +300 / 0.2%) - 9,052 deaths (+14)
• China: 89,044 (up from 88,939 / +105 / 0.1%) - 4,697 deaths (+4)
• Sweden: 83,455 (up from 83,126 / +329 / 0.4%) - 5,774 deaths (+4)
• Belgium: 75,008 (up from 74,620 / +388 / 0.5%) - 9,885 deaths (+6)
• Switzerland : 37,169 (up from 36,895 / +274 / 0.7%) - 1,991 deaths (+1)
• Ireland: 26,838 (up from 26,801 / +37 / 0.1%) - 1,774 deaths (+1)
• South Korea : 14,714 (up from 14,660 / +54 / 0.4%) - 305 deaths (+0)
• New Zealand: 1,579 (up from 1,570 / +9 / 0.6%) - 22 deaths (+0)

 

[rareboy]

Virus freeze and live for years, its possible and logical !!!
The suspicion about imported meat are from New Zealand people themselves and not from other countries.

If frozen meat was responsible for spread.....we'd be seeing thousands of new daily cases in countries like Canada. And it would already have been identified as a means of spreading.

And it just isn't happening.

I suspect that someone got the wrong end of the stick and the theory has been amplified by people, such as you, who don't use credible sources for scientific information.