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On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

New Zealand and Australia's strategy is to stamp it out until hopefully a working vaccine. We have the advantage of course of being island nations, and the number of new infections have slowed to a trickle in recent days. Time will tell if this is possible. NZ just completed 700 random tests of asymptomatic people through the country and not 1 has returned a positive result.
 
So the US has passed the 700,000 cases milestone and is rapidly catching up with some of the European countries like France with over 2100 cases per million population.
 
KaraBulut said:
That might have been preliminary estimates that came out of the weekly mortality and morbidity reporting from CDC Fluview. There's often a delay in the final stats.
2017-2018 season burden stats
2018-2019 season burden stats
Click to expand...

Agreed, but that just proves my point. There isn't really good data collected, so estimates are made. It's like the race gap.

Lots of crime records do not record race, so all the numbers are just selections from data that did. It doesn't make it accurate, only the data that is there, not necessarily the reality or even close to it.

KaraBulut said:
But that's what epidemiology is. Extrapolations are made from predictive models. Then data is reviewed retrospectively and finalized. It's why we don't get final numbers from flu season until a year or so after the season.
Click to expand...

You're arguing against your own point. The 80,000 death estimate was allegedly off by what percentage? 50%? 100%? And it was a large number, not a small sampling, and estimated by the most staffed epidemiology institution in the country.

So, my point is reinforce that all the obsession about precise infection rates and morbidity and whatnot is actually little more than coffee talk, since it could be so widely off as the flu count was by the CDC. Add to the picture all the chaos and hysteria that is in process and you have data that is little more than marginal.

I'm sorry. Science doesn't get to wear big boy religion and faith pants when it is speculating. It gets to get confidence and creds when it actually is solid, not just worry beads.

If it's going to dabble in opining and swags, let it suffer the slings and arrows of the skeptics and the scoffers.

rareboy said:
So the US has passed the 700,000 cases milestone and is rapidly catching up with some of the European countries like France with over 2100 cases per million population.
Click to expand...

A true factoid, but fairly vacuous considering we have NO solid data on the actual infection rate in such a large population. Not in China. Not in Europe. Not in the US.

NO ONE has tested in the many millions, and without it, random testing will have to be done comprehensively, methodically, and scientifically, and Sonic Drive-In random data is total crap for inclusion in counts.



rareboy said:
Russia has now warned its citizens to prepare for thousands of deaths from COVID.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/covid...Cy8-EzLTE3K3AJ6fOmDm71MmDTUw3FHpzNCEk1jFOIUkc
Click to expand...

And she will let them die with a shrug. Prove me wrong.
 
18-Apr-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported: 2,259,317 (up from 2,172,031) - *‬*87,286 new cases yesterday
- Deaths: 154,694 (up from 146,201) - **8,493‬ people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 706,779 cases (up from 671,425 yesterday, ‬**35,354 new cases)
- Deaths reported in the US - 37,079 deaths, **3,793 new deaths yesterday, 45% of the world's new deaths were in the US
- Testing: - 3,574,392 tests (up from 3,420,394 yesterday, +153,998‬‬‬ tests) - 1.1% of the US population has been tested
Note: the US has begun implementing the new CDC policy that a positive SARS-CoV-2 test is not required to count the death as COVID-related. This will cause death counts to be unusually high until the counts are adjusted for past deaths that had not been counted previously.

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 235,395 (up from 223,691 / +11,704)
- Persons tested in NY state - 573,223 (550,579 tested prior day, 22,644 new tests) 41% positive
- Cases reported in NYC - 122,148 (up from 118,302 / +3,846‬[sup]a‬[/sup])
- Deaths reported in NYC - 12,118‬‬[SUP]a[/SUP] (up from 11,477 / +641), confirmed 7,890, suspected 4,309
- Deaths reported in NYC by ethnicity: - Black 33%, Hispanic 30%, White 28%, Asian 7%
Note: [sup]a[/sup]NY started implementation of the CDC policy on Tuesday. Death numbers will be skewed until corrections from the past 6 weeks are reflected in totals.

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):
  • Spain - 190,839 (up from 184,948 / 3.2%) - 20,002 deaths
  • Italy - 172,434 cases (up 168,941 / 2.1%) - 22,745 deaths
  • France - 149,130 cases (up from 147,113 / 1.4%) - 18,703 deaths
  • UK - 109,769 cases (up from 104,155 / 5.4%) - 14,607 deaths
  • Turkey - 78,546 cases (up from 74,193 / 5.9%) - 1,769 deaths
  • Russia - 36,793 (up from 32,008 cases / 14.9%) - 313 deaths
  • Brazil - 34,221 (up from 30,891 cases / 10.8%) - 2,171 deaths
  • Canada - 32,857 cases (up from 30,973 / 6.1%) - 1,356 deaths
  • Netherlands - 30,619 cases (up from 29,383 / 4.2%) - 3,471 deaths
  • India - 14,425 (up from 13,495 / 6.9%) - 488 deaths
  • Ireland - 13,980 (up from 13,271 / 5.3%) - 530 deaths
  • Japan - 9,787 (up from 9,231 / 6.0%) - 190 deaths
  • Mexico - 6,875 (up from 6,297 / 9.2%) - 546 deaths
Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:
  • Germany - 141,397 cases (up from 138,221 / 2.3%) - 4,352 deaths / 85,400 recovered
  • China - 83,784 (up from 83,760) - 4,636 deaths / 77,614 recovered
  • Iran - 79,494 cases (unchanged from 79,494) - 4,958 deaths / 55,987 recovered (Iran doesn't seem to have posted updates)
  • Switzerland - 27,078 cases (unchanged from 27,078) - 1,344 deaths / 16,400 recovered (not updated?)
  • South Korea - 10,653 cases (up from 10,635 / 0.2%) - 232 deaths / 7,937 recovered
  • Australia - 6,547 cases (up from 6,522 / 0.4%) - 65 deaths / 4,124 recovered
  • New Zealand - 1,422 (up from 1,409 / 0.9%) - 11 deaths / 867 recovered
Individual States with high case counts:
  • New York - 235,395 (up from 223,691 / 5.2%) - 17,131 deaths
  • New Jersey - 78,467 (up from 75,317 / 4.2%) - 3,840 deaths
  • Massachusetts - 34,402 (up from 32,181 / 6.9%) - 1,404 deaths
  • Michigan - 30,023 (up from 29,263 / 2.6%) - 2,227 deaths
  • California - 29,425 (up from 28,157 / 4.5%) - 1,057 deaths
  • Pennsylvania - 30,031 (up from 28,314 / 6.1%) - 921 deaths
  • Illinois - 27,577 (up from 25,733 / 7.2%) - 1,132 deaths
  • Florida - 24,759 (up from 23,340 / 6.1%) - 726 deaths
  • Louisiana - 23,118 cases (up from 22,532 / 2.6%) - 1,213 deaths
  • Texas - 18,078 (up from 17,263 / 4.7%) - 459 deaths
  • Georgia - 17,432 (up from 16,368 / 6.5%) - 668 deaths
  • Connecticut - 16,809 (up from 15,884 / 5.8%) - 1,036 deaths
  • Washington - 11,707 (up from 11,285 / 3.7%) - 610 deaths
  • Maryland - 11,572 (up from 10,784 / 7.3%) - 389 deaths
  • Colorado - 9,047 (up from 8,675 / 4.3%) - 389 deaths
  • Tennessee - 6,589 (up from 6,263 / 5.2%) - 142 deaths
  • Mississippi - 3,793 (up from 3,624 / 4.7%) - 140 deaths
  • South Dakota - 1,411 (up from 1,311 / 7.6%) - 7 deaths
Canadian Province Stats:
  • Alberta - 2,397 (up from 2,158 / 11.1%) - 50 deaths
  • British Columbia - 1,618 (up from 1,575 / 2.7%) - 78 deaths
  • Manitoba - 250 (unchanged from 250) - 5 deaths
  • New Brunswick - 117 (unchanged from 117) - 0 deaths
  • Newfoundland/Labrador - 256 (up from 252 / 1.6%) - 3 deaths
  • Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5) - 0 deaths
  • Nova Scotia - 606 (up from 579 / 4.7%) - 4 deaths
  • Ontario - 10,456 (up from 9,828/ 6.4%) - 524 deaths
  • Quebec - 16,798 (up from 15,587 / 7.8%) - 688 deaths
  • Prince Edward Island - 26 (up from 26 ) - 0 deaths
  • Saskatchewan - 307 (up from 305 / 0.7%) - 4 deaths
  • Yukon - 8 (unchanged from 8) - 0 deaths
There were also 13 Canadians on the Grand Princess, one of whom died.
 
recovering countries mean we have to quarantine all people coming in for 14 days,
otherwise they will spread again ?
 
Telstra said:
recovering countries mean we have to quarantine all people coming in for 14 days,
otherwise they will spread again ?
Click to expand...

Recovering countries means that the number of cases has a consistently low rate of increase and the number of recovered cases has exceeded the active cases.
 
Our Chief Medical Officer has confirmed that after about a month of ever-increasing restrictions, we are in 'suppression' phase and will not experience a peak that will collapse our medical system. The infamous infection reproduction rate is now less than 1. All privtae hospitals have been taken over by the State temporarily to provde extra beds, staff and ICU. All over 70's are being 'cocooned' which basically means stayong at home. Only essential retail outlets (like food, electrical stores and chemists) are allowed open. Even the Churches are closed excepy for funerals with only minimal attendance allowed. I am fortunate to have a house in a rural county that has a (confirmed) infection rate of 0.18%. I left Dublin over a month ago when numbers of cases were beginning to rise sharply, and have nothing but sympathy for people living in terror in large urban/city areas.
 
Rickrock said:
I was wondering if Russia had any coronavirus cases and am now hearing about them.
Click to expand...

In post #897, there's mention of Russia. I added them to the daily statistics that I post because they have big problem developing. Rareboy also posted some information about the predictions there.

Russia is an example of how this virus can have more than one wave. Russia had some early cases that were probably seeded from China. In response, Russia locked down their border with China and said they had the outbreak under control. At the beginning of April, Russia had about 5,000 cases. Yesterday, they had 36,000 cases. Their cases have been increasing about 7% which was about the rate that NY state had in early April. Their death numbers doubled this week but it appears that they are still not near their peak.

Russia tends to not be very forthcoming but it is believed that their second wave in March was connected to the Italian outbreak. The travelers from Italy triggered outbreaks in Moscow and St Petersburg. Like parts of the US, the Russians were slow to put in mandatory stay-at-home orders, so it appears that they still have some time before they hit their peak cases.

 
ruggerladirish said:
Our Chief Medical Officer has confirmed that after about a month of ever-increasing restrictions, we are in 'suppression' phase and will not experience a peak that will collapse our medical system. The infamous infection reproduction rate is now less than 1.
Click to expand...
Ireland's numbers have come down this week but it might be a bit optimistic to think this is over. They do appear to have been aggressive- in early April, Ireland's cases were increasing by about 11% and they've cut that in half. To their credit, they have kept deaths low- Ireland reported 530 deaths compared to UK's 14,607 deaths as of this morning.

Two things concern me-
  • Ireland hasn't updated their recovery numbers, so it's difficult to tell where they are in terms of active cases and the peak
  • UK's numbers have been out of control the past couple of weeks and there's always a risk that travel between the UK and Ireland can seed new outbreaks
 
19-Apr-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported: 2,347,875 (up from 2,259,317) - *‬*88,558 new cases yesterday
- Deaths: 162,013 (up from 154,694) - **‬7,319 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 735,287 cases (up from 706,779 / 4.0% yesterday, ‬**28,508 new cases)
- Deaths reported in the US - 39,095 deaths, **2,016 new deaths yesterday, 28% of the world's new deaths were in the US
- Testing: - 3,723,634 tests (up from 3,574,392 yesterday, *+*149,242‬‬ tests) - 1.1% of the US population has been tested
Note: the US has begun implementing the new CDC policy that a positive SARS-CoV-2 test is not required to count the death as COVID-related. This will cause death counts to be unusually high until the counts are adjusted for past deaths that had not been counted previously.

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 242,570 (up from 235,395 / +7,175)
- Persons tested in NY state - 596,532 (573,223 tested prior day, 23,309 new tests) 41% positive
- Cases reported in NYC - 126,368 (up from 122,148 / +4,220‬[sup]a‬[/sup]), hospitalized 33,079
- Deaths reported in NYC - *12,712‬[SUP]a[/SUP] (up from 12,118‬‬ / +594), confirmed 8,448, suspected 4,264
- Deaths reported in NYC by ethnicity: - Black 33%, Hispanic 30%, White 28%, Asian 7%
Note: [sup]a[/sup]NY started implementation of the CDC policy on Tuesday. Death numbers will be skewed until corrections from the past 6 weeks are reflected in totals.

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):
  • Spain - 195,944 (up from 190,839 / 2.7%) - 20,453 deaths
  • Italy - 175,925 cases (up 172,434 / 2.0%) - 23,227 deaths
  • France - 152,978 cases (up from 149,130 / 2.6%) - 19,349 deaths
  • UK - 115,317 cases (up from 109,769 / 5.1%) - 16,095 deaths
  • Turkey - 82,329 cases (up from 78,546 / 4.8%) - 1,890 deaths
  • Russia - 42,853 (up from 36,793 cases / 16.5%) - 361 deaths
  • Brazil - 36,925 (up from 34,221 cases / 7.9%) - 2,372 deaths
  • Canada - 34,386 cases (up from 32,857 / 4.7%) - 1,520 deaths
  • Netherlands - 32,834 cases (up from 30,619 / 7.2%) - 3,696 deaths
  • India - 16,365 (up from 14,425 / 13.4%) - 521 deaths
  • Ireland - 14,758 (up from 13,980 / 5.6%) - 571 deaths
  • Japan - 10,296 (up from 9,787 / 5.2%) - 222 deaths
  • Mexico - 7,497 (up from 6,875 / 9.0%) - 650 deaths
Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:
  • Germany - 143,779 cases (up from 141,397 / 1.7%) - 4,545 deaths / 88,000 recovered
  • China - 83,805 (up from 83,784) - 4,636 deaths / 77,686 recovered
  • Iran - 82,211 cases (up from 79,494) - 5,118 deaths / 57,023 recovered
  • Switzerland - 27,740 cases (up from 27,078 / 2.4%) - 1,368 deaths / 17,100 recovered
  • South Korea - 10,661 cases (up from 10,653 / 0.1%) - 234 deaths / 8,042 recovered
  • Australia - 6,547 cases (unchanged from 6,547) - 67 deaths / 4,124 recovered (not update?)
  • New Zealand - 1,431 (up from 1,422 / 0.6%) - 12 deaths / 912 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:
  • New York - 242,570 (up from 235,395 / 3.0%) - 17,627 deaths
  • New Jersey - 81,599 (up from 78,467 / 4.0%) - 4,249 deaths
  • Massachusetts - 36,372 (up from 34,402 / 5.7%) - 1,560 deaths
  • Michigan - 30,791 (up from 30,023 / 2.6%) - 2,308 deaths
  • California - 30,812 (up from 29,425 / 4.7%) - 1,148 deaths
  • Pennsylvania - 31,795 (up from 30,031 / 5.9%) - 1,105 deaths
  • Illinois - 29,161 (up from 27,577 / 5.7%) - 1,259 deaths
  • Florida - 25,492 (up from 24,759 / 3.0%) - 748 deaths
  • Louisiana - 23,580 cases (up from 23,118 / 2.0%) - 1,267 deaths
  • Texas - 18,905 (up from 18,078 / 4.6%) - 483 deaths
  • Georgia - 17,841 (up from 17,432 / 2.3%) - 677 deaths
  • Connecticut - 17,550 (up from 16,809 / 4.4%) - 1,086 deaths
  • Washington - 12,064 (up from 11,707 / 3.0%) - 630 deaths
  • Maryland - 12,326 (up from 11,572 / 6.5%) - 421 deaths
  • Colorado - 9,440 (up from 9,047 / 4.3%) - 411 deaths
  • Tennessee - 6,762 (up from 6,589 / 2.6%) - 146 deaths
  • Mississippi - 3,974 (up from 3,793 / 4.8%) - 152 deaths
  • South Dakota - 1,542 (up from 1,411 / 9.3%) - 7 deaths
Canadian Province Stats:
  • Alberta - 2,562 (up from 2,397 / 6.9%) - 51 deaths
  • British Columbia - 1,647 (up from 1,618 / 1.8%) - 81 deaths
  • Manitoba - 253 (unchanged from 250 / 1.2%) - 5 deaths
  • New Brunswick - 118 (unchanged from 117) - 0 deaths
  • Newfoundland/Labrador - 257 (up from 256 / 0.4%) - 3 deaths
  • Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5) - 0 deaths
  • Nova Scotia - 649 (up from 606 / 7.1%) - 7 deaths
  • Ontario - 11,013 (up from 10,456/ 5.3%) - 564 deaths
  • Quebec - 17,521 (up from 16,798 / 4.3%) - 805 deaths
  • Prince Edward Island - 26 (unchanged from 26) - 0 deaths
  • Saskatchewan - 313 (up from 307 / 2.0%) - 4 deaths
  • Yukon - 9 (up from 8) - 0 deaths
There were also 13 Canadians on the Grand Princess, one of whom died.
 
There are seven US States with no stay at home order. These states have smaller populations, so they don't have the high number of cases or high number of deaths, so I haven't been listing them in the stats that I post daily.

Many of these States are outliers from the 4% average increase in cases in the US today. The 7 day increase in the US was 38.8%.

Here are the stats for those 7 States:
  • Arkansas: 1,777 cases (up from 1,228 on 12-Apr, +44.7%), 38 deaths (population: ~ 3 million)
  • Iowa: 2,513 cases (up from 1,510 on 12-Apr, +66.4%), 74 deaths (population: ~ 3.1 million)
  • Nebraska: 1,287 cases (up from 704 on 12-Apr, +82.8%), 28 deaths (population: ~ 1.1 million)
  • North Dakota: 528 cases (up from 293 on 12-Apr, +80.2%), 9 deaths (population: ~ 760,000)
  • South Dakota: 1,542 cases (up from 626 on 12-Apr, +146.3%), 7 deaths (population: ~ 880,000)
  • Utah: 2,917 cases (up from 2,207 on 12-Apr, +32.2%), 25 deaths (population: ~ 3.2 million)
  • Wyoming: 309 cases (up from 261 on 12-Apr, +18.3%), 2 deaths (population: ~ 2 million)
Until 14-Apr, Wyoming was the only state that had no deaths from COVID-19.
 
KaraBulut said:
Ireland's numbers have come down this week but it might be a bit optimistic to think this is over. They do appear to have been aggressive- in early April, Ireland's cases were increasing by about 11% and they've cut that in half. To their credit, they have kept deaths low- Ireland reported 530 deaths compared to UK's 14,607 deaths as of this morning.

Two things concern me-
  • Ireland hasn't updated their recovery numbers, so it's difficult to tell where they are in terms of active cases and the peak
  • UK's numbers have been out of control the past couple of weeks and there's always a risk that travel between the UK and Ireland can seed new outbreaks
Click to expand...

None of us think this is over - I am merely pointing to a slight glimmer of hope in weeks of appalling news and statistics.. The majority of clusters are in nursing homes and other elder facilities which is just heartbreaking. Counties bordering Northern Ireland (which is part of the UK) have very high confirmed rates per head of population, so an open border is becoming an issue. I am not Brit-bashing but restrcitions in Northern Ireland came much later than in the Republic as the Uk was much slower in reacting than our Government was.
 
ruggerladirish said:
None of us think this is over...
Click to expand...
I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm just surprised to hear this news from Ireland at this point. The media in the US has been focusing on Germany and Austria lessening their restrictions. Your post was the first mention that I've seen of Ireland.
 
This is interesting. What happens when you open up too soon. And what happens to your economy if you stay shut down for a medically appropriate time.
The article highlights a 1918 parade in Philadelphia to raise money for war bonds during World War I that resulted in chaos and death.

I predict a bad summer.

A parade that killed thousands? [The Week]

On the 28th, a snaking line of Boy Scouts, marching bands, women's auxiliaries, and troops 2 miles long wound its way up Broad Street. Warplanes flew overhead as an enormous, tightly packed crowd of 200,000 cheered. Within three days, every bed in Philadelphia's 31 hospitals was occupied. Within a week, 45,000 citizens were infected and the entire city had shut down. ... Within six months, 16,000 were dead, and 500,000 in Philadelphia had fallen ill with the flu.

A study published this year argued that cities that acted early and aggressively to impose social distancing to limit the spread of the Spanish flu actually performed better economically after the pandemic was over than those that did not. Fewer workers had died, and the local population more quickly resumed normal economic behavior, three economists found.
Click to expand...
 
The US hit another landmark today - 40,000 deaths. That's almost double the number of deaths in Spain and over double the number of deaths in France- two of the nations with the highest number of deaths in March.
 
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