On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[Kahaih]

I've read that there is no proof, or signs, or reasons to believe that people who have recovered have developed any reliable immunity.

What's the latest?

 

[zoltanspawn]

Oops -- in that case, my confidence just went down a couple notches.

Well, in the post I made above, which people can read if they choose to, the study mentioned included 3,330 individuals in a single county. The results of the seroprevalence survey suggested that the virus is present in people 50 to 85 times--I'm just going to repeat that, 50 to 85 times--more than reports based on confirmed cases.

In short, it appears based on the study I cited, that there are way more asymptomatic people than our panic has imagined.

edited to add: here's the abstract: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

 

[KaraBulut]

I've read that there is no proof, or signs, or reasons to believe that people who have recovered have developed any reliable immunity.

What's the latest?

It's mentioned in post #937. The SARS epidemic was caused by a similar virus (SARS-CoV-1) and in that epidemic, survivors had antibodies that were effective.

What is unknown is how long that antibody immunity lasts and whether B cell activity will regenerate IgG in subsequent exposures. With SARS, immunity lasted at least 2 years, so there's optimism that SARS-CoV-2 (the COVID-19 coronavirus) exposure creates IgG that remains active for a longer period of time.

 

[Kulindahr]

BTW, Zoltan, excellent talk by Katz -- he's a good communicator, easy to follow; kinda obvious why he teaches where he does.

And he confirmed some thoughts I've had, clarified others, and put a different perspective on some.

 

[zoltanspawn]

BTW, Zoltan, excellent talk by Katz -- he's a good communicator, easy to follow; kinda obvious why he teaches where he does.

And he confirmed some thoughts I've had, clarified others, and put a different perspective on some.

I tried to include credentialed physicians. I'm glad you took the time to look at it. Thanks, it took me a minute to put together and I hope others spend some time perusing my receipts.

Of course, no one will take the Swedish chef seriously, but John Ioaniddis' talk is really, really good too. The interviewer shows some bias, but the doctor's responses are measured and thoughtful.

 

[KaraBulut]

24-Apr-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported: 2,729,274 (up from 2,647,512 / 3.1%) - *‬*81,762 new cases yesterday
- Deaths: 191,962 (up from 184,643) - **7,319 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 869,172 cases (up from 842,624 / 3.2% yesterday, ‬**26,548 new cases)
- Deaths reported in the US - 49,963 deaths, 3,178 deaths yesterday , 43% of the world's new deaths were in the US
- Testing: - 4,684,300 tests (up from 4,482,434 yesterday, +201,866 tests) - 1.4% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 263,460 (up from 263,754 / -294)
- Persons tested in NY state - 695,920 (669,982 tested prior day, +25,938) 38% positive
- Cases reported in NYC - 141,754 (up from 138,435 / +‬3,319), hospitalized 36,723
- Deaths reported in NYC - ‬‬15,411 (up from 14,996 / +415), confirmed 10,290, suspected 5,121

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• Spain - 219,764 (up from 213,024 / 3.2%) - 22,524 deaths
• Italy - 189,973 (up 187,327 / 1.4%) - 25,549 deaths
• France - 159,495 (down from 157,135 / 1.5%) - 21,889 deaths
• UK - 139,246 (up from 134,639 / 3.4%) - 18,791 deaths
• Turkey - 101,790 (up from 98,674 / 3.2%) - 2,491 deaths
• Russia - 68,622 (up from 62,773 / 9.3%) - 615 deaths
• Brazil - 50,230 (up from 46,348 / 8.4%) - 3,343 deaths
• Canada - 43,286 (up from 41,650 / 3.9%) - 2,241 deaths
• Netherlands - 36,727 (up from 35,034 / 4.8%) - 4,304 deaths
• India - 23,502 (up from 21,797 / 7.8%) - 722 deaths
• Sweden - 17,567 (up from 16,755 / 4.8%) - 2,152 deaths
• Japan - 12,368 (up from 11,950 / 3.5%) - 328 deaths
• Mexico - 11,633 (up from 10,544 / 10.3%) - 1,069 deaths

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Germany - 153,393 (up from 150,729 / 1.8%) - 5,575 deaths / 106,800 recovered
• China - 83,885 (up from 83,878 / 0%) - 4,636 deaths / 78,024 recovered
• Iran - 88,194 (up from 87,026 / 1.3%) - 5,574 deaths / 66,599 recovered
• Switzerland - 28,677 (up from 28,496 / 0.6%) - 1,551 deaths / 20,600 recovered
• Ireland - 17,607 (up from 16,671 / 5.6%) - 794 deaths / 9,233 recovered
• South Korea - 10,708 (up from 10,702 / 0.1%) - 240 deaths / 8,501 recovered
• Australia - 6,661 (up from 6,547 / 1.7%) - 75 deaths / 4,124 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,456 (up from 1,451 / 0.3%) - 17 deaths / 1,095 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 263,460 (down from 263,754 / -0.1%) - 20,982 deaths
• New Jersey - 100,025 (up from 95,914 / 4.3%) - 5,426 deaths
• Massachusetts - 46,023 (up from 42,944 / 7.2%) - 2,360 deaths
• California - 39,561 (up from 37,710 / 4.9%) - 1,533 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 38,379 (up from 36,212 / 6.0%) - 1,724 deaths
• Illinois - 36,937 (up from 35,109 / 5.2%) - 1,688 deaths
• Michigan - 35,296 (up from 33,966 / 3.9%) - 2,977 deaths
• Florida - 29,648 (up from 28,586 / 3.7%) - 987 deaths
• Louisiana - 25,739 (up from 25,258 / 1.9%) - 1,599 deaths
• Connecticut - 23,100 (up from 22,469 / 2.8%) - 1,639 deaths
• Texas - 22,650 (up from 21,774 / 4.0%) - 604 deaths
• Georgia - 21,883 (up from 21,102 / 3.7%) - 881 deaths
• Maryland - 15,737 (up from 14,775 / 6.5%) - 748 deaths
• Washington - 12,753 (down from 12,494 / 2.1%) - 711 deaths
• Colorado - 11,278 (up from 10,891 / 3.6%) - 552 deaths
• Tennessee - 8,266 (up from 7,842 / 5.4%) - 171 deaths
• Iowa - 3,924 (up from 3,748 / 4.7%) - 96 deaths
• Arkansas - 2,599 (up from 2,392 / 8.7%) - 45 deaths
• Nebraska - 2,202 (up from 1,813 / 21.5%) - 47 deaths
• South Dakota - 1,956 (up from 1,858 / 5.3%) - 9 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 3,720 (up from 3,401 / 9.4%) - 68 deaths
• British Columbia - 1,824 (up from 1,795 / 1.6%) - 94 deaths
• Manitoba - 262 (up from 257 / 1.9%) - 6 deaths
• New Brunswick - 118 (unchanged from 118) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 256 (unchanged from 256) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 827 (up from 772 / 7.1%) - 16 deaths
• Ontario - 14,068 (up from 13,718 / 2.6%) - 806 deaths
• Quebec - 21,838 (up from 20,965 / 4.2%) - 1,243 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 26 (unchanged from 26) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 331 (up from 326 / 1.5%) - 4 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11) - 0 deaths

There were also 13 Canadians on the Grand Princess, one of whom died.

 

[rareboy]

Well, at least we now know where the bleach nonsense may have come from.

The leader of the most prominent group in the US peddling potentially lethal industrial bleach as a “miracle cure” for coronavirus wrote to Donald Trump at the White House this week. In his letter, Mark Grenon told Trump that chlorine dioxide – a powerful bleach used in industrial processes such as textile manufacturing that can have fatal side-effects when drunk – is “a wonderful detox that can kill 99% of the pathogens in the body”. He added that it “can rid the body of Covid-19”.

https://www.joemygod.com/2020/04/ch...oIQ1WSv6axWp0XZ_EKaAfBf6VYnNwGghGiHvN0PwwSRjw

In three to four days, the US will have more than one million active cases.

 

[KaraBulut]

Another sobering article on the costs of unfettered spread of COVID-19...

At least 150 Italian doctors have died from coronavirus [CNN]

In Italy, at least 150 doctors have died after contracting coronavirus, the Italian Association of Doctors said on Friday.

Health care professionals account for about 10% of all infections, the organization said...

 

[zoltanspawn]

An interesting case study from China on how a single infected person can spread coronavirus in an enclosed space.

In a contact tracing in China, a single infected person in a restaurant passed the virus to 9 other diners at the restaurant during a 90 minute dining experience.

In this case, a family from Wuhan traveled to Guangzhou. They ate at a restaurant in Guangzhou. The next day, one of the family members at table "A" started running a fever and tested positive for coronavirus. Four other people at table "A", two people at table "C" and three people at table "B" also were infected. There were 73 other diners and 8 employees who were also in the restaurant and none of them developed symptoms during a mandatory 14 day quarantine.

How Coronavirus Infected Some, but Not All, in a Restaurant [New York Times]

It sounds like some of these studies, widely covered in the media, and sometimes sensationalized, are being retracted.

Here's a very similar one about purported aerosolized spread in a bus. (Click on the photo for a larger picture.)



https://retractionwatch.com/2020/04...read-of-aerosolized-coronavirus-is-retracted/

Of course, when reached for comment, China didn't have much to say about why the study was retracted.

If the Guangzhou 'limited study' gets retracted I hope we'll get notice.

 

[zoltanspawn]

And more good news, especially around here!



https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0015028220303848

But seriously, now is not the time to inject yourself with Lysol or suck strangers' dicks.

 

[zoltanspawn]

BTW, I hate it when people post hour-long videos. I did that upthread, which I normally don't do, but violated the principle given the importance of the issue.

Although I would urge everyone to watch the full video I posted, here's a brief takeaway from it, it's only four minutes or so:

If you can spare ten minutes, here he is talking about a real lack of reliable data about the virus. He specifically addresses some of the trouble in Italy, their demography, ICU capacity, triage, hospital spread, etc.

(If we aren't making our decisions based on reliable data, how are we making our decisions?)

And if you have only three minutes, here he is talking about his study on the serological prevalence of covid-19 in Santa Clara:

 

[zoltanspawn]

Well, at least we now know where the bleach nonsense may have come from.



https://www.joemygod.com/2020/04/ch...oIQ1WSv6axWp0XZ_EKaAfBf6VYnNwGghGiHvN0PwwSRjw

In three to four days, the US will have more than one million active cases.

Just to highlight for those following along, we will have one million "reported" cases, which is the language KaraBulut thoughtfully, and thankfully, uses.

This doesn't actually denote the real number of cases that are out there in the population, just the number we think have been confirmed.

A recent study suggests that the number of infections (including all the asymptomatic, mild cases which don't get counted currently) is much higher by magnitudes than the number which has been reported.

Although it sounds shocking that there are one million active cases, our takeaway from better data will hopefully allow us to take some comfort in a possibly lowered mortality rate, and that is worth our scrutiny.

 

[johaninsc]

at the moment, U.S. death count is 51,017

 

[KaraBulut]

The problem on Navy ships continues. This time the Navy, thankfully, it being more aggressive about testing and containment.

Another Navy warship at sea reports a coronavirus outbreak [ABC]

Another Navy ship at sea has reported a coronavirus outbreak and is returning to port, the Navy said Friday.

Navy officials said at least 18 members of the crew of a destroyer, the USS Kidd, have tested positive and it expects the number to grow. It said it is evaluating the extent of the outbreak aboard the ship.

The Kidd is off the Pacific coast of Central America, where it has been operating as part of a U.S. counter-drug mission. The Navy said it has a crew of about 350. It is only the second Navy ship, among about 90 deployed around the world, to report a coronavirus outbreak at sea. The other is the USS Theodore Roosevelt.

On Friday, the latest Secretary of Defense was supposed to announce his decision on whether to reinstate the captain of the USS Roosevelt after a review board recommended he be reinstated. He's probably having to ask the White House if it's okay that he follows the Navy's recommendation:

Navy recommends reinstating commander of USS Theodore Roosevelt [CNN]

The Navy recommended to Defense Secretary Mark Esper that Capt. Brett Crozier be restored to command of the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier on Friday, according to an administration official.

Esper was not prepared to immediately accept the recommendation from Admiral Michael Gilday, the Chief of Naval Operations after being briefed on the investigation into the circumstances around Crozier's removal, telling top Navy officials he wanted more time to review their recommendations, two defense officials told CNN.
The defense officials told CNN that the Navy intended to announce its recommendation at a press conference Friday afternoon but it was canceled after Esper did not immediately endorse it.

 

[KaraBulut]

It sounds like some of these studies, widely covered in the media, and sometimes sensationalized, are being retracted.

Here's a very similar one about purported aerosolized spread in a bus. (Click on the photo for a larger picture.)

The obvious problem with the bus study is that they went beyond their findings and extended the data into some conclusions that are beyond what the case study found.

These case studies are really epidemiological contact tracing, where they find the original infected person and then try to figure out who they had contact with. For example, in the restaurant study, they would have looked at credit card transactions, employee schedules and perhaps even cell phone location data to determine who had been in the restaurant that day, where they sat and the times they entered/departed the restaurant. The position of air conditioning units also played a part in circulating the virus over a 90 minute period. One really important thing about the restaurant study was that it was not in Wuhan where the virus was omnipresent in the population. Because this was a family from Wuhan introduced into a city in Southern China where the infection rates were lower, it was more likely that any cases in the restaurant patrons were likely transmitted from the exposure to the Wuhan family.

When doing a case study on a bus, one has to wonder, "How did they figure out what day the transmission happened, how did they figure out who was on the bus, how did they figure out where people were sitting and how did they figure out how long each person was on the bus?". Also, "how did they know that all of the people on the bus got the virus from that exposure?"; in a place like NYC or Wuhan, the virus is no established in the population that any person in the population who is in a public place could be exposed to multiple carriers.

The researchers in the bus case study used China's ubiquitous CCTV systems to piece together who was on the bus, where they sat and how long they were on the bus. They made one assumption that casts doubt on the study: they assumed that every case was traceable to the one person on the bus (person "A"). The current thinking is that 6 feet is enough spacing to prevent droplet exposure. The bus study is suggesting that the virus transmitted over a distance that is 2.5 times that distance. They came to the conclusion that the virus can stay aloft in the air for 30 minutes. They suggest that 7 people on the bus were infected but the people sitting next to person "A" somehow didn't get infected. Generally in a single case study, one expects the conclusions to be understated and a suggestion made that more studies are needed to validate the findings. Unfortunately, I don't read Chinese, so I am having to depend upon indirect translations of the paper but it seems to make a lot of assumptions and its "findings" are very outside the norms.

The bus study was peer-reviewed. The paper was retracted but no reason was given. Both the US and the China have been silencing scientists who are saying things that the politicians in power don't want the public to hear. By not giving a reason for the retraction, it's hard to be sure whether the retraction was because the study was flawed or whether it was because the Chinese government frowned upon the public hearing the paper's conclusions.

 

[belamyi]

The obvious problem with the bus study is that they went beyond their findings and extended the data into some conclusions that are beyond what the case study found.

Happens all the time: maybe that's why they always call them "studies", not something like "scientific studies".

Then let people assume, so that they may end up confusing the people by contradicting findings of other "studies", with the final result of all credibility of any sort of "study" being lost on the public opinion.

 

[KaraBulut]

25-Apr-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported: 2,834,134 (up from 2,729,274 / 4.0%) - *‬*104,860 new cases yesterday
- Deaths: 198,405 (up from 191,962) - **6,443 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 906,551 cases (up from 869,172 / 4.3% yesterday, ‬**7,379 new cases)
- Deaths reported in the US - 52,042 deaths, 2,079 deaths yesterday , 32% of the world's new deaths were in the US
- Testing: - 4,940,376 tests (up from 4,684,300 yesterday, +256,076‬ tests), 1.4% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 271,590 (up from 263,460 / -294)
- Persons tested in NY state - 730,656 (695,920 tested prior day, +34,736) 37% positive
- Cases reported in NYC - 146,139 (up from 141,754 / +*4,385‬), hospitalized 37,995
- Deaths reported in NYC - 15,848‬ (up from ‬‬15,411 / +437), confirmed 10,746, suspected 5,102

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• Spain - 223,759 (up from 219,764 / 1.9%) - 22,902 deaths
• Italy - 192,994 (up 189,973 / 1.6%) - 25,969 deaths
• France - 159,952 (down from 159,495 / 0.3%) - 22,279 deaths
• UK - 144,640 (up from 139,246 / 4.0%) - 19,567 deaths
• Turkey - 104,912 (up from 101,790 / 3.2%) - 2,600 deaths
• Russia - 74,588 (up from 68,622 / 9.5%) - 681 deaths
• Brazil - 54,043 (up from 50,230 / 8.2%) - 3,704 deaths
• Canada - 44,087 (up from 43,286 / 1.9%) - 2,386 deaths
• Netherlands - 37,384 (up from 36,727 / 1.9%) - 4,424 deaths
• India - 24,942 (up from 23,502 / 6.6%) - 780 deaths
• Sweden - 18,177 (up from 17,567 / 3.6%) - 2,192 deaths
• Japan - 12,829 (up from 12,368 / 3.9%) - 345 deaths
• Mexico - 12,872 (up from 11,633 / 11.8%) - 1,221 deaths

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Germany - 155,054 (up from 153,393 / 1.1%) - 5,788 deaths / 109,800 recovered
• China - 83,901 (up from 83,885 / 0%) - 4,636 deaths / 78,138 recovered
• Iran - 89,328 (up from 88,194 / 1.3%) - 5,650 deaths / 68,193 recovered
• Switzerland - 28,894 (up from 28,677 / 0.8%) - 1,593 deaths / 21,000 recovered
• Ireland - 18,184 (up from 17,607 / 3.5%) - 1,014 deaths / 9,233 recovered
• South Korea - 10,718 (up from 10,708 / 0.1%) - 240 deaths / 8,635 recovered
• Australia - 6,677 (up from 6,661 / 0.2%) - 79 deaths / 4,124 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,461 (up from 1,456 / 0.3%) - 18 deaths / 1,118 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 271,590 (up from 263,460 / 3.1%) - 21,411 deaths
• New Jersey - 102,196 (up from 100,025 / 2.2%) - 5,683 deaths
• Massachusetts - 50,969 (up from 46,023 / 10.7%) - 2,556 deaths
• California - 41,355 (up from 39,561 / 4.5%) - 1,621 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 40,208 (up from 38,379 / 4.8%) - 1,747 deaths
• Illinois - 39,658 (up from 36,937 / 7.4%) - 1,795 deaths
• Michigan - 36,641 (up from 35,296 / 3.8%) - 3,085 deaths
• Florida - 30,533 (up from 29,648 / 3.0%) - 1,046 deaths
• Louisiana - 26,140 (up from 25,739 / 1.6%) - 1,660 deaths
• Connecticut - 23,936 (up from 23,100 / 3.6%) - 1,767 deaths
• Texas - 23,642 (up from 22,650 / 4.4%) - 624 deaths
• Georgia - 22,491 (up from 21,883 / 2.8%) - 899 deaths
• Maryland - 16,616 (up from 15,737 / 5.6%) - 798 deaths
• Washington - 12,977 (up from 12,753 / 1.8%) - 722 deaths
• Colorado - 12,256 (up from 11,278 / 8.7%) - 674 deaths
• Tennessee - 8,728 (up from 8,266 / 5.6%) - 169 deaths
• Iowa - 4,445 (up from 3,924 / 13.3%) - 107 deaths
• Arkansas - 2,810 (up from 2,599 / 8.1%) - 47 deaths
• Nebraska - 2,424 (up from 2,202 / 10.1%) - 50 deaths
• South Dakota - 2,040 (up from 1,956 / 4.3%) - 10 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 4,017 (up from 3,720 / 8.0%) - 71 deaths
• British Columbia - 1,853 (up from 1,824 / 1.6%) - 98 deaths
• Manitoba - 263 (up from 262 / 0.4%) - 6 deaths
• New Brunswick - 118 (unchanged from 118) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 256 (unchanged from 256) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 850 (up from 827 / 2.8%) - 16 deaths
• Ontario - 14,581 (up from 14,068 / 3.6%) - 862 deaths
• Quebec - 22,616 (up from 21,838 / 3.6%) - deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 26 (unchanged from 26) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 341 (up from 331 / 3.0%) - 1,340 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11) - 0 deaths

There were also 13 Canadians on the Grand Princess, one of whom died.

 

[m1thousand]

I was thinking that it has to be hard for deaf people because people are wearing masks and the cant read lips as a result

 

[cabinfever]

The problem on Navy ships continues. This time the Navy, thankfully, it being more aggressive about testing and containment.

Another Navy warship at sea reports a coronavirus outbreak [ABC]



On Friday, the latest Secretary of Defense was supposed to announce his decision on whether to reinstate the captain of the USS Roosevelt after a review board recommended he be reinstated. He's probably having to ask the White House if it's okay that he follows the Navy's recommendation:

Navy recommends reinstating commander of USS Theodore Roosevelt [CNN]

I hope he gets a full apology from a full range of people who sat back and tried to silence the truth - all the way to the top.

He deserves nothing less. I consider him a hero.

 

[Alistair]

^ he deserves the Medal of Honor