On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[belamyi]

 

[rareboy]

The problems in Russia and the UK have been getting overshadowed by the numbers in the US.

In a week, Russia has gone from 60,000 cases to 115,000 cases- almost doubling their case totals. Russia's PM Mikhail Mishustin was diagnosed with COVID-19 this week. Many of the healthcare workers in Russian hospitals are sick with COVID-19. In spite of this, Putin has put out statements which say everything is under control and that Russia has done a good job of stopping the spread of coronavirus. Russia is under lockdown and the lockdown has been extended through 11-May. The videos below are from earlier this week.

The UK is up to 167,000 cases. They're reported 26,000 deaths which would make their mortality rate 15% which does not comport with the 3-4% mortality seen in other countries. The death count would imply that the actual case count is probably closer to 1 million cases.

And I still don't believe the Russian numbers.

Or they are still so early into this that it will be another month before they are seeing the same spread through their urban centres as the US and other European countries.

It also wouldn't be a great time to be one of Putin's enemies.

I suspect many of them will 'contract' cornoavirus.

 

[belamyi]

And I still don't believe the Russian numbers.

I still find you are ohsoclever.

It also wouldn't be a great time to be one of Putin's enemies.

I suspect many of them will 'contract' cornoavirus.

I thought you were going to say something far more cruel: they will be used as scapegoats.

 

[belamyi]

^ I had to use this space, after I realized I was not editing but creating a new post ^

I can not find (won't bother, actually) articles in English, but I assume they will be posted in the next days: it seems the virus decidedly affects men more than women, and it slashes your life expectancy (what could be expect, after the hell that is described by the survivors...).

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/coronavirus-covid-19-lebenserwartung-1.4893657


https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...aenner-a-8db38147-fd12-4c99-90ac-bc7c7a1aab17

 

[justaguy]

I wonder how it is that the likes of the UK has been in lockdown for weeks but is still getting high numbers? Are people following the isolation rules? Or is the virus finding a way to get through despite very little contact between one another?

 

[Telstra]

I wonder how it is that the likes of the UK has been in lockdown for weeks but is still getting high numbers? Are people following the isolation rules? Or is the virus finding a way to get through despite very little contact between one another?

High density, its not easy to do social distancing like New Zealand or Australia.

 

[KaraBulut]

I wonder how it is that the likes of the UK has been in lockdown for weeks but is still getting high numbers? Are people following the isolation rules? Or is the virus finding a way to get through despite very little contact between one another?

They put in the lockdown on 23-March which was late in the game. They made two critical mistakes in early March- they left the tube system in London operational and they didn't shut down travel from Europe (instead they "advised against it" in mid-March).

The UK's reporting is really off. They're under-testing the population in the UK. They report low death numbers (e.g. 400) one day and then report a high number of deaths (e.g. 2000) the next day. It's hard to tell whether they have peaked or not because their reported case and death numbers are so out of whack.

An action that they take today may not show in the numbers for weeks. Even in ideal conditions, it takes about 2-4 weeks for the trends to work through into reporting. The virus can have a long incubation period (5-14 days), it used to take 3-5 days to get results from testing and many of the people who get sick will have a long course of illness (7-21 days) before they die. So, you're looking at a big delay between exposure, test results and death/recovery.

 

[belamyi]

I wonder how it is that the likes of the UK has been in lockdown for weeks but is still getting high numbers? Are people following the isolation rules? Or is the virus finding a way to get through despite very little contact between one another?

New Zealand
Area
• Total
268,021 km2
Population
• May 2020 estimate
4,982,320

United Kingdom
Area
• Total
242,495 km2
Population
• 2020 estimate
Increase 67,886,004


About one third of the Auckland urban area

About one third of the Greater London urban area

 

[purina]

Coronavirus: Nicotine patches to be tested on patients after study suggests smokers less likely to catch COVID-19
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...mokers-less-likely-to-catch-covid-19-11977460
The researchers said that according to the latest official statistics in France, smokers make up 30% of those aged 45-54, and 8.8% of women and 11.3% of men aged 65-75.
The authors write: "Our cross-sectional study strongly suggests that daily smokers have a much lower probability of developing symptomatic or severe SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to the general population.
"The effect is significant, it divides the risk by five for ambulatory patients and by four for hospitalised patients. You rarely see that in medicine.

Longer more informative article:

Was Hockney RIGHT? French researchers to give nicotine patches to coronavirus patients and frontline workers after lower rates of infection were found among smokers
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...s-coronavirus-patients-frontline-workers.html

In addition, the authors theorize nicotine could abate the immune system's overreaction to the virus, which leads to serious complications in some patients.
...
The paper focused on statistics but pointed to past research which suggested nicotine may alter receptors inside the body called ACE-2 receptors, which the coronavirus relies on as its gateway into the body.

A study published earlier this month by scientists in New York and Athens ... looked at 13 Chinese studies that had registered smoking as a precondition and found that the number of smokers across the whole sample of 5,300 patients was 6.5 per cent. An astonishingly small number in country where half of all men still smoke.
'This preliminary analysis does not support the argument that current smoking is a risk factor for hospitalization for COVID-19,' it reads.
'Instead, these consistent observations, which are further emphasized by the low prevalence of current smoking among COVID-19 patients in the US (1.3 per cent), raises the hypothesis that nicotine may have beneficial effects on COVID-19.'
...
They suggest that while the virus causes lung damage by depleting the numbers of those receptors - known as ACE-2 receptors - smoking can increase the number of them, reversing the effect.
ACE-2 receptors, which are found on cells in the airways and lungs, have been said to work as the coronavirus's doorway into the body and to 'facilitate' infection.
Therefore having more of them would seem to be a bad thing, but scientists say they have a protective effect in the lungs and low levels are linked to worse damage from viral infection.
...
Professor Balloux described the paper as 'puzzling' and added: 'Whilst the study design is far from perfect - and the authors are clear about its limitations - the evidence for a protective effect of smoking (or nicotine) against COVID-19 is bizarrely strong... actually far stronger than for any drug trialled at this stage...'
...
The study by Dr Farsalinos adds by way of explanation: 'It has been observed that decreased ACE-2 availability contributes to lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome development.
'Therefore, higher ACE-2 expression, while seemingly paradoxical, may protect against acute lung injury caused by COVID-19.'
This is a disputed area of science - there are studies which show smoking can both increase and decrease the levels of ACE-2 available on someone's lung cells.
An increase before infection could allow more of the viruses to get into the body in the first place, making someone more vulnerable to the disease.
A paper published by scientists at University College London offers the opposite view to Dr Farsalinos.
It said: 'SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to enter cells through the ACE-2 receptor​.
'Some evidence suggests that gene expression and subsequent receptor levels are elevated in the airway and oral [cells] of current smokers​, thus putting smokers at higher risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2
'Other studies, however, show that nicotine downregulates the ACE-2 receptor.'
Professor Jamie Brown, an addiction researcher at UCL and one of the authors who wrote that paper, told MailOnline the link is 'very difficult to understand'.
'Everything we know about other respiratory viruses and comorbidities [health problems] suggests smokers will suffer worse outcomes,' he said.
Only recently - a paper published this year claimed to be the first - have scientists started to record that smoking increases ACE-2 levels in the airways.
It had previously been reported to reduce levels, something that researchers have linked to worse lung damage in coronavirus infections.
While higher levels of the receptor may offer some protection in theory, they also offer more doorways through which the virus can enter the body.
The study in the European Respiratory Journal said: 'While the up-regulation of ACE-2 may be useful in protecting the host against acute lung injury, chronically, this may predispose individuals to increased risk of coronavirus infections, which uses this receptor to gain entrance into epithelial cells.'
Professor Brown added that, considering how smoking influences other lung infections, he would be 'very surprised' if it didn't make COVID-19 worse.

Helen Salisbury: What might we learn from the covid-19 pandemic?
https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1087/rr-0
Conclusion: In patients infected with COVID 19, the use of ACE inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers should be effective. ACE2 receptor downregulation can be achieved with nicotine and Covid19-cell interaction may be somewhat broken. Nicotine band therapy may be a treatment option for patients who are not infected

Comment from e-cigarette-forum
"Territoo says: As I read the article, and others, nicotine doesn't block the ACE receptors. It down regulates them, i.e. causes there to be fewer of them. Fewer ACE receptors mean fewer sites that the coronavirus has to attack. An ACE inhibitor blocks the receptors that are present.
Think of the virus as an evil intruder and those spikes are its keys to your doors. An ACE inhibitor is like one of those door locks that landlords put on the door to keep the key from being used. Nicotine is like bricking up the doors so they no longer exist. Each one is helpful, but used together they're more powerful. Plus, the effects of ACE inhibitors on blood pressure limits the dose in those without hypertension. Nicotine's addiction potential is a drawback for it. You are going to have nonsmokers addicted to gum and lozenges."

 

[zoltanspawn]

The polls are saying that a majority of Americans don't feel secure enough to go to places with crowds. They are worried about sending their children to school. They are worried about lessening of the restrictions too early. And in all these instances, when asked about the financial impacts, they're choosing their health over their financial risk.

"Worry" is a terrible basis for good policy. I am much more interested in implementing policy on the basis of experts, and NOT the fears of the general public.

Germany is one country that has reduced their rate of replication (R[sub]0[/sub]) to less than 1 which means that the number of cases is decreasing as fewer people have been passing along the virus. But here's a breakdown for Germany's new cases for the past 10 days.
20-Apr 1,964
21-Apr 1,322
22-Apr 1,388
23-Apr 2,276
24-Apr 2,664
25-Apr 1,661
26-Apr 1,673
27-Apr 1,054
28-Apr 977
29-Apr 1,721
30-Apr 1,060

Now that they've been backing off on some of their restrictions, the numbers are increasing. Even with measures in effect and an R[sub]0[/sub] less than 1, they are still getting over 1,000 new cases per day. Germany has 161,539 cases.

The US has 1,040,488 cases with 25,000 new cases per day and the US' cases are increasing at 4 times the rate of Germany's. Guess what is going to happen in the US?

If hospital capacity isn't stressed and individuals are young and healthy, I'm not convinced transmission isn't an acceptable risk. The mortality rates appear to be pretty low.

I find the idea of 18-24 months of totally repressed transmission extremely dangerous.

The total harms from such a program will almost certainly out-weigh any benefits.

No, the goal is always containment and elimination. The opportunity to do that was in February. America blew that opportunity, so now we're in mitigation and reduction, trying desperately to get that R[sub]0[/sub] under 1 so that we don't have 25,000 new cases every day.

The goal "was" containment and elimination, and NOW the goal is mitigation and reduction. Okay. How many new cases every day can we safely handle? Just saying "25,000 new cases every day" doesn't tell me enough about the situation on the ground and sounds pretty scary.

SARS-CoV-2 will require >70-80% immunity to attain "herd immunity", assuming that there is a persistence of immunity beyond 24 months past recovery. At a 30% rate of infection, you'll have about 60 million adults who are infected. If you assume a mortality of 3%, that's 1.8 million dead. Does that sound like a good idea?

I think I've seen different estimates of what % immunity will be required to attain herd immunity, but I'm unsure. I need to look at that.

I definitely wouldn't yet assume a mortality of 3%. Honestly, that sounds pretty scary.

The latest information that I've seen, given the most recent, reasonable seroprevalence studies, is that mortality is less than one percent.

Some considerations:

Deaths are being attributed to covid-10, even when other factors are considerable.

The total mortality rate (for example, "2%) doesn't take into account important factors like AGE and HEALTH: if you're under 65 and healthy, the mortality rate is WAY lower.

 

[belamyi]

If hospital capacity isn't stressed and individuals are young and healthy, I'm not convinced transmission isn't an acceptable risk.

As long as people unable to pay hospital bills are not stressing the healthcare system, sure, no problem.
Problem would be when people with a good insurance start fighting each other for medical attention: I guess that would be a handsome opportunity to make good profits for those who are left standing.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/01/coronavirus-young-americans-covid-19



So leave out the miserable, those who already went through hell with the corona, there are still, how many million voters left to stress hospital capacity.

As for the young and healthy, go fight the corona for your country!

 

[KaraBulut]

...I think I've seen different estimates of what % immunity will be required to attain herd immunity, but I'm unsure. I need to look at that.

..I definitely wouldn't yet assume a mortality of 3%. Honestly, that sounds pretty scary.

The latest information that I've seen, given the most recent, reasonable seroprevalence studies, is that mortality is less than one percent.

Hubei's reported CFR was 3.1%. European nations have reported a much higher CFR.

COVID-19 Mortality Analyses [Johns Hopkins]

I find the idea of 18-24 months of totally repressed transmission extremely dangerous.

The current recommendation for relaxing mitigation measures was 14 days of decreasing cases. Since mitigation was not enforced in many areas and no State has demonstrated 14 days of decreasing case curves, what States are doing by prematurely relaxing mitigation measures is not following the CDC recommendations.

Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14-day period or downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (flat or increasing volume of tests)

 

[KaraBulut]

1-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 3,274,747 (up from 3,209,984 / 2.0%) - *‬*64,763 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 233,792 (up from 228,057) - **5,735 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,070,032 cases (up from 1,040,488 / 2.8% yesterday, ‬**29,544 new cases)
- Deaths reported in the US - 64,637 deaths, 3,638 deaths yesterday , 63% of the world's new deaths were in the US
- Testing: - 6,231,182 tests (up from 6,026,170 yesterday, +205,012 tests), 1.9% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 304,372 (up from 299,691 / +4,681)
- Persons tested in NY state - 900,636 (872,481 tested prior day, +25,155) 34% positive
- Cases reported in NYC - 162,212 (up from 159,865 / +2,347), hospitalized 41,648
- Deaths reported in NYC - 17,866 (up from 17,589 / +277), confirmed 12,571, suspected 5,295

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,070,032 (up from 1,040,488 / 2.8%) - 64,637 deaths
• Spain - 213,435 (down from 236,899 / -9.9%) - 24,543 deaths
• Italy - 205,463 (up 203,591 / 0.9%) - 27,967 deaths
• UK - 172,481 (up from 166,441 / 3.6%) - 27,583 deaths
• France - 167,301 (down from 166,628 / 0.4%) - 24,410 deaths
• Turkey - 120,204 (up from 117,589 / 2.2%) - 3,174 deaths
• Russia - 114,431 (up from 106,498 / 7.4%) - 1,169 deaths
• Brazil - 87,187 (up from 79,685 / 9.4%) - 6,006 deaths
• Canada - 54,457 (up from 52,865 / 3.0%) - 3,537 deaths
• Netherlands - 39,512 (up from 38,998 / 1.3%) - 4,909 deaths
• India - 35,043 (up from 33,062 / 6.0%) - 1,154 deaths
• Sweden - 21,520 (up from 21,092 / 2.0%) - 2,653 deaths
• Ireland - 20,612 (up from 20,253 / 1.8%) - 1,232 deaths / 13,386 recovered
• Mexico - 19,224 (up from 17,799 / 8.0%) - 1,859 deaths
• Japan - 14,088 (up from 13,965 / 0.9%) - 430 deaths

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Germany - 163,009 (up from 161,539 / 0.9%) - 6,623 deaths / 126,900 recovered
• China - 83,958 (up from 83,944 / 0.0%) - 4,637 deaths / 78,567 recovered
• Iran - 95,646 (up from 94,640 / 1.1%) - 6,091 deaths / 76,318 recovered
• Switzerland - 29,705 (up from 29,586 / 0.4%) - 1,737 deaths / 23,400 recovered
• South Korea - 10,774 (up from 10,765 / 0.1%) - 248 deaths / 9,072 recovered
• Australia - 6,765 (up from 6,754 / 0.2%) - 93 deaths / 5,747 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,479 (up from 1,476 / 0.2%) - 19 deaths / 1,252 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - (up from 299,691 / 1.6%) - 23,587 deaths
• New Jersey - (up from 116,365 / 2.0%) - 7,228 deaths
• Massachusetts - 62,205 (up from 60,265 / 3.2%) - 3,562 deaths
• Illinois - 52,918 (up from 50,358 / 5.1%) - 2,355 deaths
• California - 50,411 (up from 48,829 / 3.2%) - 2,046 deaths
• Pennsylvania - (up from 46,458 / 3.6%) - 2,475 deaths
• Michigan - 41,379 (up from 40,399 / 2.4%) - 3,789 deaths
• Florida - 33,690 (up from 33,193 / 1.5%) - 1,268 deaths
• Louisiana - 28,001 (up from 27,660 / 1.2%) - 1,905 deaths
• Connecticut - 27,700 (up from 26,767 / 3.5%) - 2,257 deaths
• Texas - 28,728 (up from 27,390 / 4.9%) - 812 deaths
• Georgia - 26,388 (up from 25,955 / 1.7%) - 1,136 deaths
• Maryland - 21,742 (unchanged from 20,849 / 4.3%) - 1,140 deaths
• Ohio - 18,027 (up from 17,303 / 4.2%) - 976 deaths
• Colorado - 15,284 (up from 14,758 / 3.6%) - 777 deaths
• Washington - 14,327 (up from 14,070 / 1.8%) - 814 deaths
• Virginia - 15,847 (unchanged from 14,962 / 5.9%) - 552 deaths
• Tennessee - 10,735 (up from 10,366 / 3.6%) - 199 deaths
• Iowa - 7,145 (up from 6,843 / 4.4%) - 162 deaths
• Nebraska - 4,281 (up from 3,851 / 11.2%) - 70 deaths
• Arkansas - 3,281 (up from 3,193 / 2.8%) - 61 deaths
• South Dakota - 2,449 (up from 2,373 / 3.2%) - 17 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 5,355 (up from 5,165 / 3.7%) - 90 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,112 (up from 2,087 / 1.2%) - 111 deaths
• Manitoba - 277 (up from 275 / 0.7%) - 6 deaths
• New Brunswick - 118 (unchanged from 118 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 258 (unchanged from 258 / 0%) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 947 (up from 935 / 1.3%) - 28 deaths
• Ontario - 17,395 (up from 16,978 / 2.5%) - 1,205 deaths
• Quebec - 27,550 (up from 26,610 / 3.5%) - 1,859 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 389 (up from 383 / 1.6%) - 7 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11) - 0 deaths

There were also 13 Canadians on the Grand Princess, one of whom died.

 

[rareboy]

The end of April brings grim statistics: Canada’s number of COVID-19 cases topped 54,000, with 3,300 deaths, but there is some good news: the national rate of new cases has slowed to three per cent, down from 17 per cent at the beginning of the month

We just aren't getting there yet. I suspect that because of Quebec, the northeast states like Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine are going to resist opening the border, while in Ontario we are also telling Quebeckers to stay away if they plan on re-opening soon. Likewise....as long as New York continues to be a major source of cases...and states like Michigan seem ready to move to civil insurrection in order to get a haircut....Ontario doesn't want the border re-opened either.

But the charts do indicate some progress being made over the last week or so across Canada.

https://www.macleans.ca/society/hea...-how-our-fight-to-flatten-the-curve-is-going/

 

[KaraBulut]

We just aren't getting there yet. I suspect that because of Quebec..

And Alberta where the total case numbers are lower than Ontario and Quebec but they've had higher percentage increases.

Alberta - 2,562 to 5,355 (change 2,958 / 223.40%)
British Columbia - 1,647 to 2,112 (change 494 / 130.53%)
Ontario - 11,013 to 17,395 (change 6,939 / 166.36%)
Quebec - 17,521 to 27,550 (change 10,752 / 164.01%)

 

[KaraBulut]

A reminder that it's not just older people who have severe complications from COVID-19: Nick Cordero, a Tony Award nominated musical theater performer has been on a ventilator in a Los Angeles hospital since early April. His lungs have been severely damaged by the virus and they have had to amputate one of his legs because of a clotting disorder that seem to affect some people with COVID-19.

Cordero is just 41 years old. He and his wife just had their first child.

Nick Cordero's wife says his lungs are 'severely damaged' [CNN]

 

[KaraBulut]

2-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 3,361,244 (up from 3,274,747 / 2.6%) - *‬*86,497 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 239,090 (up from 233,792) - **5,298 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,104,161 cases (up from 1,070,032 / 3.2% yesterday, ‬**34,129 new cases)
- Deaths reported in the US - 65,068 deaths, 431 deaths yesterday , 8.1% of the world's new deaths were in the US
- Testing: - 6,551,810 tests (up from 6,231,182 yesterday, +320,628 tests), 2.0% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 308,314 (up from 304,372 / +3,942)
- Persons tested in NY state - 927,438 (900,636 tested prior day, +26,802) 33% positive
- Cases reported in NYC - 164,505 (up from 162,212 / +*2,293‬), hospitalized 42,417
- Deaths reported in NYC - 18,231 (up from 17,866 / +365), confirmed 13,000, suspected 5,231

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,104,161 (up from 1,070,032 / 3.2%) - 65,068 deaths
• Spain - 213,435 (down from 213,435 / 0%) - 24,543 deaths / 112,050 recovered
• Italy - 207,428 (up 205,463 / 1.0%) - 28,236 deaths / 78,249 recovered
• UK - 178,685 (up from 172,481 / 3.6%) - 27,583 deaths
• France - 167,305 (down from 167,301 / 0%) - 24,628 deaths / 51,124 recovered
• Russia - 124,054 (up from 114,431 / 8.4%) - 1,222 deaths
• Turkey - 122,392 (up from 120,204 / 1.8%) - 3,258 deaths
• Brazil - 92,202 (up from 87,187 / 5.8%) - 6,434 deaths
• Canada - 56,343 (up from 54,457 / 3.5%) - 3,537 deaths
• Netherlands - 39,989 (up from 39,512 / 1.2%) - 5,003 deaths
• India - 37,336 (up from 35,043 / 6.5%) - 1,223 deaths
• Sweden - 22,082 (up from 21,520 / 2.6%) - 2,669 deaths
• Ireland - 20,833 (up from 20,612 / 1.1%) - 1,265 deaths / 13,386 recovered
• Mexico - 20,739 (up from 19,224 / 7.9%) - 1,972 deaths
• Japan - 14,305 (up from 14,088 / 1.5%) - 455 deaths

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Germany - 164,077 (up from 163,009 / 0.7%) - 6,736 deaths / 129,000 recovered
• China - 83,959 (up from 83,958 / 0.0%) - 4,637 deaths / 78,586 recovered
• Iran - 96,448 (up from 95,646 / 0.8%) - 6,156 deaths / 77,350 recovered
• Switzerland - 29,817 (up from 29,705 / 0.4%) - 1,754 deaths / 23,900 recovered
• South Korea - 10,780 (up from 10,774 / 0.1%) - 250 deaths / 9,123 recovered
• Australia - 6,781 (up from 6,765 / 0.2%) - 93 deaths / 5,796 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,485 (up from 1,479 / %) - 20 deaths / 1,263 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 308,314 (up from 299,691 / 1.3%) - 24,039 deaths
• New Jersey - 121,190 (up from 116,365 / 2.2%) - 7,538 deaths
• Massachusetts - 64,311 (up from 62,205 / 3.5%) - 3,716 deaths
• Illinois - 56,055 (up from 52,918 / 6.2%) - 2,457 deaths
• California - 52,238 (up from 50,411 / 3.7%) - 2,136 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 49,579 (up from 46,458 / 3.1%) - 2,635 deaths
• Michigan - 42,356 (up from 41,379 / 2.4%) - 3,866 deaths
• Florida - 34,728 (up from 33,690 / 3.1%) - 1,314 deaths
• Texas - 29,937 (up from 28,728 / 4.4%) - 841 deaths
• Connecticut - 28,764 (up from 27,700 / 4.0%) - 2,339 deaths
• Louisiana - 28,711 (up from 28,001 / 2.6%) - 1,970 deaths
• Georgia - 27,731 (up from 26,388 / 5.2%) - 1,169 deaths
• Maryland - 23,472 (unchanged from 21,742 / 8.3%) - 1,192 deaths
• Ohio - 18,743 (up from 18,027 / 4.1%) - 1,003 deaths
• Virginia - 16,902 (unchanged from 15,847 / 7.1%) - 581 deaths
• Colorado - 15,793 (up from 15,284 / 3.4%) - 821 deaths
• Washington - 14,637 (up from 14,327 / 2.2%) - 824 deaths
• Tennessee - 11,891 (up from 10,735 / 11.2%) - 204 deaths
• Iowa - 7,884 (up from 7,145 / 10.8%) - 170 deaths
• Wisconsin - 7,314 (up from 6,854 / 7.1%) - 327 deaths
• Nebraska - 5,008 (up from 4,281 / 18.9%) - 73 deaths
• Arkansas - 3,310 (up from 3,281 / 0.9%) - 64 deaths
• South Dakota - 2,525 (up from 2,449 / 3.2%) - 21 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 5,573 (up from 5,355 / 4.1%) - 92 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,144 (up from 2,112 / 1.5%) - 112 deaths
• Manitoba - 281 (up from 277 / 1.4%) - 6 deaths
• New Brunswick - 118 (unchanged from 118 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 259 (up from 258 / 0.4%) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 959 (up from 935 / 1.3%) - 29 deaths
• Ontario - 17,880 (up from 17,395 / 2.8%) - 1,265 deaths
• Quebec - 28,656 (up from 27,550 / 4.0%) - 2,022 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 415 (up from 389 / 6.7%) - 7 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

There were also 13 Canadians on the Grand Princess, one of whom died.

 

[ruggerladirish]

I have to thank you for your stats each day which must be time consuming. But I ask what is the qualifying criteria for a country to be 'recovering'? Thanks for all your efforts. (that was meant for Karabulut - I thought i clicked on reply with quote).

 

[KaraBulut]

I have to thank you for your stats each day which must be time consuming. But I ask what is the qualifying criteria for a country to be 'recovering'? Thanks for all your efforts. (that was meant for Karabulut - I thought i clicked on reply with quote).

What I'm looking for is a point at which the number of new infections is less than the number of newly recovered patients.

In epidemiology, there are calculations that are made that depend on final disposition of a patient. When a disease is believed to confer immunity after infection, we break down populations in three categories (referred to as the SIR model) to get to those calculations:

1. S: Number of people susceptible (i.e. not infected, not immune)
2. I: Number of people infected (i.e. testing shows an active infection and at risk of transmitting the disease to another person)
3. R: Number of people recovered (i.e. either confirmed to have no infection confirmed by testing or outside a time window after symptoms have abated)

In some cases, it's very apparent- for example, the case numbers for China for the past 5 days:

• 28-Apr: 83,938
• 29-Apr: 83,940 (+2 cases)
• 30-Apr: 83,944 (+4)
• 01-May: 83,958 (+14)
• 02-May: 83,959 (+1)

With China, the statistics they have reported imply that they have brought their epidemic under control. According to their public statements, the new cases they are finding are from people traveling to China from other countries. China has a 14 day mandatory quarantine for people arriving into the country and they test them to ensure that they don't have the virus. Australia and New Zealand are also easy- their new cases are next to zero.

With Spain and Ireland, it's hard to be sure whether they've tipped the point where the number of new recoveries is exceeding the new cases. Ireland, in particular, had brought their new cases down but then they had a bump in new cases for some reason.

• 28-Apr: active 19,648 / deaths 1,102
• 29-Apr: active 19,877 (+229 cases) / deaths 1,159 (+57 ) / recovered 9,233
• 30-Apr: active 20,253 (+376) / deaths 1,190 (+31 ) / recovered 13,386 (+4,153 recoveries)
• 01-May: active 20,612 (+359) / deaths 1,232 (+42 ) / recovered 13,386 (+0)
• 02-May: active 20,833 (+221) / deaths 1,265 (+33 ) / recovered 13,386 (+0)

Ireland has flattened their curve - they were running between 600 to 900 new cases daily in mid-April but their recovered number has been flat the past few days. So, it's hard to know whether they're having a second wave or whether they just haven't been updating their recovery number.

If you're interested in epidemiology, the term for when a disease produces new cases but doesn't exceed the rate at which patients can recover is called the endemic equilibrium. It's the point at which the rate of replication (the R[sub]0[/sub]) is less than 1.

 

[zoltanspawn]

A reminder that it's not just older people who have severe complications from COVID-19: Nick Cordero, a Tony Award nominated musical theater performer has been on a ventilator in a Los Angeles hospital since early April. His lungs have been severely damaged by the virus and they have had to amputate one of his legs because of a clotting disorder that seem to affect some people with COVID-19.

Cordero is just 41 years old. He and his wife just had their first child.

Nick Cordero's wife says his lungs are 'severely damaged' [CNN]

Yes, the virus poses a risk, but so does driving.

Until we really know how much of a risk covid-19 poses to young and healthy people, I worry that this sort of post might be spreading fear unnecessarily.

We KNOW that the virus poses significant risk to the elderly and immunocompromised. I don't think we know yet the statistical risks for the younger and healthier. Is the sort of thing that happened to Cordero negligible or typical? Is the story responsible journalism or a scary story meant to sell papers and drive political narratives?

If it turns out that this sort of thing happens to lots of people who are infected with the virus, fair enough, good warning.

But if this is a statistically insignificant occurrence that the media is highlighting, I don't think it's helpful in helping us arrive at best practices and policies.