On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[belamyi]

Yes, the virus poses a risk, but so does driving.

Until we really know how much of a risk covid-19 poses to young and healthy people, I worry that this sort of post might be spreading fear unnecessarily.

We KNOW that the virus poses significant risk to the elderly and immunocompromised. I don't think we know yet the statistical risks for the younger and healthier. Is the sort of thing that happened to Cordero negligible or typical? Is the story responsible journalism or a scary story meant to sell papers and drive political narratives?

If it turns out that this sort of thing happens to lots of people who are infected with the virus, fair enough, good warning.

But if this is a statistically insignificant occurrence that the media is highlighting, I don't think it's helpful in helping us arrive at best practices and policies.

Yes, communism brings ruin to people and to entire nations, but so does capitalism

- - - Updated - - -

 

[zoltanspawn]

Professor of structural biology at Stanford School of Medicine, and 2013 recipient of the Nobel Prize, Michael Levitt (not an epidemiologist). Advocates smart lockdown and herd immunity, calls indiscriminate lockdown a "huge mistake."

 

[belamyi]

^ It all started being wrong by ignoring the threat of the virus, so anything is wrong when you reach this point-.

It's not a question of choosing now between life/health and the economy, because it's all now woven in one single path: it is the choice you made at the start between doing nothing vs. tackling the spreading.

 

[KaraBulut]

Yes, the virus poses a risk, but so does driving.

It's a false equivalency but let's go with it anyway.

In the US, around 35,000 people die in car accidents each year.

COVID-19 has killed nearly twice that number of people in the US in the past 60 days... that's a year worth of auto fatalities every two weeks. Although the number of deaths might be more than the 66,000 that we know about.

... I don't think we know yet the statistical risks for the younger and healthier.

We do. For example, in NYC over 25% of the deaths have been in people under 65.

... Is the sort of thing that happened to Cordero negligible or typical? Is the story responsible journalism or a scary story meant to sell papers and drive political narratives?

About 5% of people with COVID-19 require intensive care. That's double the incidence for similar illnesses like influenza.

For that population going to intensive care, the Cordero complications of ARDS and DIC are quite typical. What is atypical is that he's been in the ICU for a month. Usually, the patients die much quicker.

What is the unknown is how many people with strokes aren't being diagnosed with COVID-19 as a co-morbidity. The connection between COVID-19, strokes and other clotting abnormalities is just beginning to be recognized.

... If it turns out that this sort of thing happens to lots of people who are infected with the virus, fair enough, good warning.

But if this is a statistically insignificant occurrence that the media is highlighting, I don't think it's helpful in helping us arrive at best practices and policies.

On of the most dramatic changes toward the pandemic has been in the UK. When PM Boris Johnson had a near-death experience with COVID-19, his bluster and disregard for the pandemic changed dramatically. It's very real now. Not being able to breath and not knowing if you're doing die was a reality check.

One of the problems that we have at the moment in the COVID-19 pandemic is that we've reached numbers that are beyond what people can process. Many of the members who were around in the 1980s and 1990s will relate similar experiences during the HIV epidemic. Thousands of people were dying quickly of AIDS complications. It wasn't until it was someone who you knew who died that it changed from an abstract statistic to something that was more comprehensible.



The patterns are strangely similar: "Oh, that's just in New York City". "I have a healthy immune system". "I'm not worried- my friends don't have 'it'".

The Cordero story highlights that this disease is unpredictable. It's not the flu and being healthy and young isn't a guaranteed protection. A mild case might make you ill for a week or two. A moderate case might put you out commission for a month. About 1 in 5 people end up in the hospital. Even if you are one of the 80% who do get the mild to moderate case, the person that you pass it onto might not be as lucky.

 

[belamyi]

^ Don't sweat it, Kara, it¡s all

 

[cabinfever]

One of the problems that we have at the moment in the COVID-19 pandemic is that we've reached numbers that are beyond what people can process. Many of the members who were around in the 1980s and 1990s will relate similar experiences during the HIV epidemic. Thousands of people were dying quickly of AIDS complications. It wasn't until it was someone who you knew who died that it changed from an abstract statistic to something that was more comprehensible.

The patterns are strangely similar: "Oh, that's just in New York City". "I have a healthy immune system". "I'm not worried- my friends don't have 'it'".

Very good point - and true. I remember when they didn't have a name for it yet and called it Karposis and this one kinda belligerent guy took off his shoes to show the group of us his purple spots on the bottom of his feet. It was bizarre to look at and I will never forget it. I think he was maybe 22. He died pretty quickly. When more people started getting it and there was a name for it people just avoided the ones who have HIV and AIDS and unfortunately those of us who were still uninformed and listening to people's theories decided that the people who got it were just sluts and did something "wrong" and very few of us young healthy people were at risk.

The next ten years proved all of us wrong and it was a sobering lesson.

One guy who was a roommate of a good friend of mine who stated that he had nothing to worry about as he never did anal and ONLY did oral - he was dead within the next few months. I spent alot of time wondering if he had forgotten about anal or if oral sex gave it to him. I will never know.

Way too many people who thought other people were whores or sluts and they had nothing to worry about - also got it and died. It was wave after wave of hundreds and thousands of people wiped out.

When Medical Professionals and Health Officials warn me I KNOW to follow their suggestions.

I think if you watch AIDS or a similar pandemic up close you learn something maybe people who haven't don't already know.

 

[belamyi]

One guy who was a roommate of a good friend of mine who stated that he had nothing to worry about as he never did anal and ONLY did oral - he was dead within the next few months.

I spent alot of time wondering if he had forgotten about anal or if oral sex gave it to him. I will never know.

:-|

Trying to keep it as neuter as possible.

 

[KaraBulut]

3-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 3,448,057 (up from 3,361,244 / 2.6%) - *‬*86,813 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 244,229 (up from 239,090) - **5,298 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,133,069 cases (up from 1,104,161 / 2.6% yesterday, ‬**28,908 new cases)
- Deaths reported in the US - 66,415 deaths, 1,347 deaths yesterday , 25.4% of the world's new deaths were in the US
- Testing: - 6,816,347 tests (up from 6,551,810 yesterday, +264,537 tests), 2.0% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 312,977 (up from 308,314 / +4,663)
- Persons tested in NY state - 959,017 (927,438 tested prior day, +31,579) 32.6% positive
- Cases reported in NYC - 166,883 (up from 164,505 / +2,378‬), hospitalized 42,715
- Deaths reported in NYC - 18,282 (up from 18,231 / +51), confirmed 13,156, suspected 5,126

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,133,069 (up from 1,104,161 / 2.6%) - 66,415 deaths
• Spain - 216,582 (down from 213,435 / 1.5%) - 25,100 deaths / 117,248 recovered
• Italy - 209,328 (up from 207,428 / 0.9%) - 28,710 deaths / 79,914 recovered
• UK - 183,500 (up from 178,685 / 2.7%) - 28,205 deaths
• France - 168,518 (down from 167,305 / 0.7%) - 24,763 deaths / 50,663 recovered
• Russia - 134,687 (up from 124,054 / 8.6%) - 1,280 deaths
• Turkey - 124,375 (up from 122,392 / 1.6%) - 3,336 deaths
• Brazil - 97,100 (up from 92,202 / 5.3%) - 6,761 deaths
• Canada - 57,927 (up from 56,343 / 2.8%) - 3,684 deaths
• Netherlands - 40,769 (up from 39,989 / 2.0%) - deaths
• India - 39,980 (up from 37,336 / 7.1%) - 1,323 deaths
• Sweden - 22,317 (up from 22,082 / 1.1%) - 2,679 deaths
• Mexico - 22,088 (up from 20,739 / 6.5%) - 2,061 deaths
• Ireland - 21,176 (up from 20,833 / 1.6%) - 1,286 deaths / 13,386 recovered
• Japan - 14,571 (up from 14,305 / 1.9%) - 474 deaths

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Germany - 164,967 (up from 164,077 / 0.5%) - 6,812 deaths / 130,600 recovered
• China - 83,959 (unchanged from 83,959 / 0%) - 4,637 deaths / 78,586 recovered
• Iran - 97,424 (up from 96,448 / 1.0%) - 6,203 deaths / 78,422 recovered
• Switzerland - 29,905 (up from 29,817 / 0.3%) - 1,762 deaths / 24,200 recovered
• South Korea - 10,793 (up from 10,780 / 0.1%) - 250 deaths / 9,183 recovered
• Australia - 6,799 (up from 6,781 / 0.3%) - 95 deaths / 5,817 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,487 (up from 1,485 / 0.1%) - 20 deaths / 1,266 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 312,977 (up from 308,314 / 1.5%) - 24,198 deaths
• New Jersey - 123,717 (up from 121,190 / 2.1%) - 7,742 deaths
• Massachusetts - 66,263 (up from 64,311 / 3.0%) - 3,846 deaths
• Illinois - 58,505 (up from 56,055 / 4.4%) - 2,559 deaths
• California - 53,655 (up from 52,238 / 2.7%) - 2,194 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 50,494 (up from 49,579 / 1.8%) - 2,695 deaths
• Michigan - 43,207 (up from 42,356 / 2.0%) - 4,021 deaths
• Florida - 35,463 (up from 34,728 / 2.1%) - 1,364 deaths
• Texas - 31,140 (up from 29,937 / 4.0%) - 865 deaths
• Connecticut - 29,287 (up from 28,764 / 1.8%) - 2,436 deaths
• Louisiana - 29,140 (up from 28,711 / 1.5%) - 1,993 deaths
• Georgia - 28,330 (up from 27,731 / 2.2%) - 1,177 deaths
• Maryland - 24,473 (unchanged from 23,472 / 4.3%) - 1,251 deaths
• Ohio - 19,335 (up from 18,743 / 3.2%) - 1,022 deaths
• Indiana - 19,295 (up from 18,630 / 3.6%) - 1,115 deaths
• Virginia - 17,738 (up from 16,902 / 4.9%) - 617 deaths
• Colorado - 16,225 (up from 15,793 / 2.7%) - 832 deaths
• Washington - 15,003 (up from 14,637 / 2.5%) - 830 deaths
• Tennessee - 12,661 (up from 10,735 / 6.5%) - 209 deaths
• Iowa - 8,643 (up from 7,884 / 9.6%) - 175 deaths
• Wisconsin - 7,660 (up from 7,314 / 4.7%) - 334 deaths
• Nebraska - 5,317 (up from 5,008 / 6.2%) - 73 deaths
• Arkansas - 3,372 (up from 3,310 / 1.9%) - 72 deaths
• South Dakota - 2,588 (up from 2,525 / 2.5%) - 21 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 5,670 (up from 5,573 / 1.7%) - 94 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,171 (up from 2,144 / 1.3%) - 114 deaths
• Manitoba - 282 (up from 281 / 0.4%) - 6 deaths
• New Brunswick - 118 (unchanged from 118 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 259 (unchanged from 259 / 0%) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 963 (up from 959 / 0.4%) - 31 deaths
• Ontario - 18,322 (up from 17,880 / 2.5%) - 1,292 deaths
• Quebec - 29,664 (up from 28,656 / 3.5%) - 2,136 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 421 (up from 415 / 1.4%) - 7 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

There were also 13 Canadians on the Grand Princess, one of whom died.

 

[zoltanspawn]

It's a false equivalency but let's go with it anyway.

In the US, around 35,000 people die in car accidents each year.

COVID-19 has killed nearly twice that number of people in the US in the past 60 days... that's a year worth of auto fatalities every two weeks. Although the number of deaths might be more than the 66,000 that we know about.

I would invoke "comparison" rather than "equivalency" which is to say that I'm suggesting "similarity" rather than "sameness."

Risk of driving (x amount of miles) may be around .014%. Pretty acceptable to most.

For healthy people under 65, I've seen estimated mortality rates from legitimate experts of around .03%. Yes, it's higher than driving, but I would say it's a degree of similarity worth thinking about.

To be clear, I understand that for some segments of society, the risk SARS CoV2 poses is not comparable. And I wouldn't invoke any comparison for them

When there are more seroprevalence studies it will be helpful for us to really know what the mortality rate of real cases is, whether a low number like I've mentioned, or the dramatic percentages that preceded the lockdowns.

(also, per your statement, I believe you meant "every four weeks" or 35,000 a month?)

We do. For example, in NYC over 25% of the deaths have been in people under 65.

How many of those people were "healthy" as I mentioned?

How many of those deaths attributed to covid-19 were people with poor access to health care, diabetic, suffering from cancer, spared from the flu this year, etc?

Also, if I'm reading these statistics (https://data.cdc.gov/d/9bhg-hcku/visualization) correctly (which I may very well NOT be, because my expertise revolves more around calculating food costs lol) it appears that for the entire country 10.3% of deaths were in those under 65, and 89.7% were for those over.

About 5% of people with COVID-19 require intensive care. That's double the incidence for similar illnesses like influenza.

5% of people under 65 and healthy?

The connection between COVID-19, strokes and other clotting abnormalities is just beginning to be recognized.

I definitely wouldn't include people with clotting abnormalities in my understanding of "healthy."

On of the most dramatic changes toward the pandemic has been in the UK. When PM Boris Johnson had a near-death experience with COVID-19, his bluster and disregard for the pandemic changed dramatically. It's very real now. Not being able to breath and not knowing if you're doing die was a reality check.

One of the problems that we have at the moment in the COVID-19 pandemic is that we've reached numbers that are beyond what people can process. Many of the members who were around in the 1980s and 1990s will relate similar experiences during the HIV epidemic. Thousands of people were dying quickly of AIDS complications. It wasn't until it was someone who you knew who died that it changed from an abstract statistic to something that was more comprehensible.

I mostly have a utilitarian approach to this, which means that I'm interested in the MOST good for the MOST people. Philosophically, I despise an ethical approach that, for instance, shows ONE sick, starving injured puppy on the roadside that captures attention, while the reality is that there are FIVE HUNDRED puppies about to be euthanized. I'm not at all sure that the Cordero story is anything more than a sick, starving injured puppy story siphoning attention away from the five hundred because it's so comprehensible. I tend to believe the opposite, that more good will come to more people if we try really hard to understand the abstract statistics and stay away from these 'highly comprehensible' stories.

I understand that peoples' hearts and minds are captured by this sort of relatable imagery, but I worry that the best policies and protocols will not come from them.

The Cordero story highlights that this disease is unpredictable. It's not the flu and being healthy and young isn't a guaranteed protection.

Really? Of course there is an element to EVERYTHING that is unpredictable. Asking for "guaranteed protection" is a ridiculous and unrealistic standard. If THAT'S what the story is highlighting, it's garbage.

Even if you are one of the 80% who do get the mild to moderate case, the person that you pass it onto might not be as lucky.

And just to end on a note of positive agreement , I value each and every one of your posts. I learn from them, and am grateful for your time and dedication, even though I disagree about some of them from my AMATEUR perspective. So thank you. Also, I'm 100% in agreement with you about "passing it on". No, we ought not, and we ought to continue to take practical measures like wearing masks, distancing and washing our hands as much as possible.

You have been one of my most valued sources of information throughout this, KaraBulut!

 

[KaraBulut]

...I definitely wouldn't include people with clotting abnormalities in my understanding of "healthy."

Go back and read the article about strokes that I linked.

SARS-CoV-2 activates clotting factors in some people. This results either in a massive stroke or in disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC).

 

[zoltanspawn]

Go back and read the article about strokes that I linked.

SARS-CoV-2 activates clotting factors in some people. This results either in a massive stroke or in disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC).

Thank you, I appreciate your clarification, it's helpful.

Here is the link for anyone following along: https://www.npr.org/sections/health...to-potentially-deadly-blood-clots-and-strokes

Unfortunately, I don't think the link provides any solid information on the risk of this happening, and merely notes that it is a risk.

I consider that unhelpful in making good decisions.

We need to know if it's likely the plane will crash, and not just that planes sometime crash.

 

[Kyanimal]

^ Z and Kara, you two are making my brain hurt. That's a good thing! Thank You!

 

[zoltanspawn]

^ Z and Kara, you two are making my brain hurt. That's a good thing! Thank You!

At the end of the day, listen to Kara more than me!

But you're nice to mention my efforts at understanding this mess.

 

[KaraBulut]

Thank you, I appreciate your clarification, it's helpful.

Here is the link for anyone following along: https://www.npr.org/sections/health...to-potentially-deadly-blood-clots-and-strokes

Unfortunately, I don't think the link provides any solid information on the risk of this happening, and merely notes that it is a risk.

I consider that unhelpful in making good decisions.

We need to know if it's likely the plane will crash, and not just that planes sometime crash.

Well, just a reminder that at the beginning of the flight, you always get the important safety announcements whether your plane crashes or not.

The model for this is the HIV epidemic and to put that into perspective, the first case of AIDS was in 1981. It took nearly 3 years to find the virus. It took another year to come up with a test. It took another 2 years to begin trials of the first anti-retrovirals. Long before we had a treatment, we started telling people to use condoms and to reduce the number of people they were having sex with.

With SARS-CoV-2, the first cases were in Dec-2019, the virus was identified in Jan-2020, the antigen test was available in Feb-2020 and the first antibody test were available in Apr-2020. This thread is a really good chronicle of what has happened. In early February, rareboy and I were discussing the change from when China said that the virus couldn't be passed from human to human, to the realization that there was a pandemic and the transmission was not only from human-to-human, it was passing via respiratory droplets with an R[sub]0[/sub] >2. On that "oh shit" realization, I started tracking stats.

On 2-Feb, there were 14,628 cases world-wide and we were being told that the US didn't need to worry. This morning, I posted stats that were 3,448,057 confirmed cases globally including 1,133,069 cases in the US and at a minimum, 244,229 have died.

In the past 40 years, we've gotten much better at gathering information but we've never had this much information about a virus while having so many people who were still sick with it. There's a lot we're learning about the virus. Mostly, the people in the trenches are so overwhelmed with the acuity and the volume of the sick, that they haven't bad much time to synthesize the information that they have.

The bottom line in all of this is that all of these bizarre things that are happening with COVID-19 just points to one thing: you want to avoid getting it.

Wash your hands. Avoid touching your face until you've washed your hands. Avoid crowds. Socially distance in public. Stay inside when you can. Wear a mask when you're around other people.

^ Z and Kara, you two are making my brain hurt. That's a good thing! Thank You!

Don't feel bad, I started taking migraine medications in grad school for a reason.

 

[Kulindahr]

We just aren't getting there yet. I suspect that because of Quebec, the northeast states like Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine are going to resist opening the border, while in Ontario we are also telling Quebeckers to stay away if they plan on re-opening soon. Likewise....as long as New York continues to be a major source of cases...and states like Michigan seem ready to move to civil insurrection in order to get a haircut....Ontario doesn't want the border re-opened either.

I wish our county could "refuse to open the border" to other counties; the only reason the commissioners haven't reopened things is because the moment we do a thousand people will stream over from the cities and crowd the parks and beaches.

 

[Kulindahr]

SARS-CoV-2 activates clotting factors in some people. This results either in a massive stroke or in disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC).

It was a story reporting that which actually got me scared for the first time during all of this.

 

[Kulindahr]

I noticed that yesterday the U.S. achieved the infamy of having 1/3 of the world's confirmed cases.

 

[Kyanimal]

It was a story reporting that which actually got me scared for the first time during all of this.

I noticed that yesterday the U.S. achieved the infamy of having 1/3 of the world's confirmed cases.

I wish our county could "refuse to open the border" to other counties; the only reason the commissioners haven't reopened things is because the moment we do a thousand people will stream over from the cities and crowd the parks and beaches.

^ Does that mean I can't escape to Canada?

I guess I'll just have to stay here, hope I'm still around by November 3, and VOTE!!!

 

[frankfrank]

^ Well, it means that you shouldn't try to escape to Tillamook County.

 

[Kulindahr]

^ Does that mean I can't escape to Canada?

I guess I'll just have to stay here, hope I'm still around by November 3, and VOTE!!!

^ Well, it means that you shouldn't try to escape to Tillamook County.

Yeah, I said "county", not "country".