On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[rareboy]

Quebec has just found a number of missed reported cases that bumps their count to over 32,000....

I suspect that there are thousands upon thousands of cases being missed in the counts in many countries, although at this point, it is almost only moot.

MONTREAL -- Quebec public health officials announced Sunday that a computer error resulted in 1,317 missing positive COVID-19 cases between April 2-30.

The province also announced a daily increase of 892 new COVID-19 from Saturday, bringing the total number of infections in Quebec to 31,865.

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/confirm...22826#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=Facebook&_gsc=cYLwE5X

The rest of Canada will be watching as Quebec starts to re-open this week.

 

[KaraBulut]

4-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 3,523,121 (up from 3,448,057 / 2.2%) - *‬*75,064 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 247,752 (up from 244,229) - **3,523 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,158,341 cases (up from 1,133,069 / 2.2% yesterday, ‬**25,272 new cases)
- Deaths reported in the US - 67,686 deaths, 1,271 deaths yesterday , 36.1% of the world's new deaths were in the US
- Testing: - 7,053,366 tests (up from 6,816,347 yesterday, +237,019 tests), 2.1% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 316,415 (up from 312,977 / +3,438)
- Cases reported in NYC - 168,845 (up from 166,883 / +1,962‬), hospitalized 42,909
- Deaths reported in NYC - 18,706 (up from 18,282 / +424), confirmed 13,319, suspected 5,387

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,158,341 (up from 1,133,069 / 2.2%) - 67,686 deaths
• Spain - 217,466 (down from 216,582 / 0.4%) - 25,264 deaths / 118,902 recovered
• Italy - 210,717 (up from 209,328 / 0.7%) - 28,884 deaths / 81,654 recovered
• UK - 187,842 (up from 183,500 / 2.4%) - 28,520 deaths / 902 recovered
• France - 168,925 (down from 168,518 / 0.2%) - 24,900 deaths / 50,885 recovered
• Russia - 145,268 (up from 134,687 / 7.9%) - 1,356 deaths
• Turkey - 126,045 (up from 124,375 / 1.3%) - 3,397 deaths
• Brazil - 101,826 (up from 97,100 / 4.9%) - 7,051 deaths
• Canada - 60,504 (up from 57,927 / 4.4%) - 3,795 deaths
• Belgium - 50,267 (up from 49,906 / 0.7%) - 7,924 death / 12,378 recovered
• India - 42,670 (up from 39,980 / 6.7%) - 1,395 deaths
• Netherlands - 40,769 (up from 40,769 / 0%) - 5,098 deaths
• Mexico - 23,471 (up from 22,088 / 6.3%) - 2,154 deaths
• Sweden - 22,317 (unchanged from 22,317 / 0%) - 2,769 deaths (Sweden didn't update on Sunday)
• Ireland - 21,506 (up from 21,176 / 1.6%) - 1,303 deaths / 13,386 recovered
• Japan - 14,877 (up from 14,571 / 2.1%) - 487 deaths

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Germany - 165,664 (up from 164,967 / %) - 6,866 deaths / 132,700 recovered
• China - 83,964 (up from 83,959 / %) - 4,637 deaths / 78,688 recovered
• Iran - 98,647 (up from 97,424 / %) - 6,277 deaths / 79,379 recovered
• Switzerland - 29,981 (up from 29,905 / 0.3%) - 1,762 deaths / 24,500 recovered
• South Korea - 10,801 (up from 10,793 / 0.1%) - 252 deaths / 9,217 recovered
• Australia - 6,823 (up from 6,799 / 0.4%) - 96 deaths / 5,863 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,487 (unchanged from 1,487 / 0%) - 20 deaths / 1,278 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 316,415 (up from 312,977 / 1.1%) - 24,708 deaths
• New Jersey - 126,744 (up from 123,717 / 2.4%) - 7,871 deaths
• Massachusetts - 68,087 (up from 66,263 / 2.8%) - 4,004 deaths
• Illinois - 61,499 (up from 58,505 / 5.1%) - 2,618 deaths
• California - 54,924 (up from 53,655 / 2.4%) - 2,217 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 51,225 (up from 50,494 / 1.4%) - 2,720 deaths
• Michigan - 43,801 (up from 43,207 / 1.4%) - 4,053 deaths
• Florida - 36,078 (up from 35,463 / 1.7%) - 1,379 deaths
• Texas - 31,998 (up from 31,140 / 2.8%) - 878 deaths
• Connecticut - 29,287 (unchanged from 29,287 / 0%) - 2,436 deaths (not updated)
• Louisiana - 29,340 (up from 29,140 / 0.7%) - 2,012 deaths
• Georgia - 28,945 (up from 28,330 / 2.2%) - 1,186 deaths
• Maryland - 25,462 (up from 23,472 / 4.0%) - 1,281 deaths
• Ohio - 19,914 (up from 19,335 / 3.0%) - 1,039 deaths
• Indiana - 19,933 (up from 19,295 / 3.3%) - 1,132 deaths
• Virginia - 18,672 (up from 17,738 / 5.3%) - 660 deaths
• Colorado - 16,635 (up from 16,225 / 2.5%) - 842 deaths
• Washington - 15,185 (up from 15,003 / 1.2%) - 834 deaths
• Tennessee - 13,177 (up from 12,661 4.1%) - 210 deaths
• Iowa - 9,175 (up from 8,643 / 6.2%) - 184 deaths
• Wisconsin - 7,964 (up from 7,660 / 4.0%) - 339 deaths
• Nebraska - 5,661 (up from 5,317 / 6.5%) - 78 deaths
• Arkansas - 3,437 (up from 3,372 / 1.9%) - 76 deaths
• South Dakota - 2,631 (up from 2,588 / 1.7%) - 21 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 5,766 (up from 5,670 / 1.7%) - 95 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,171 (unchanged from 2,171 / 0%) - 114 deaths (BC doesn't update on Sunday)
• Manitoba - 282 (unchanged from 282 / 0%) - 6 deaths
• New Brunswick - 118 (unchanged from 118 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 259 (unchanged from 259 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 3 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 971 (up from 963 / 0.8%) - 37 deaths
• Ontario - 18,574 (up from 18,322 / 1.4%) - 1,326 deaths
• Quebec - 31,873 (up from 29,664 / 7.4%) - 2,206 deaths (see rareboy's post above)
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 433 (up from 421 / 2.9%) - 7 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[zoltanspawn]

Well, just a reminder that at the beginning of the flight, you always get the important safety announcements whether your plane crashes or not.

And although it's actually statistically safer to fly than sleep in your own bed at night, we don't get safety announcements before we put on our pajamas. Or, because there is a risk of planes crashing, we don't actually tell people not to fly. The risks need real analysis to make good practices and policies.

The bottom line in all of this is that all of these bizarre things that are happening with COVID-19 just points to one thing: you want to avoid getting it.

I'm still not totally convinced that this is true in all cases and places. Upthread in post 957 David Katz former director of Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center (a Yale public health CDC center) advocates risk-stratified exposure.

Although I don't stand by my own posts in this thread, I think most of the experts I've linked to are worth real consideration.

Wash your hands. Avoid touching your face until you've washed your hands. Avoid crowds. Socially distance in public. Stay inside when you can. Wear a mask when you're around other people.

I don't disagree with any of this, or perhaps by a few degrees.

 

[KaraBulut]

.I'm still not totally convinced that this is true in all cases and places. Upthread in post 957 David Katz former director of Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center (a Yale public health CDC center) advocates risk-stratified exposure.

I've avoided commenting on Dr. Katz because I do think we need to hear other opinions (and Dr Katz is voicing an opinion, not citing evidence-based practice). His colleagues, however, haven't been as restrained:

The Wrong Way to Fight Coronavirus: Yale health experts take strong issue with an Op-Ed essay that suggested letting the virus run its course. [NY Times]

Until we have a vaccine to prevent Covid-19 and effective antiviral drugs, it is essential to engage in aggressive personal hygiene, social distancing, increased testing, isolation of exposed people, and strategies to avoid transmission in health settings. We must buy time for these advances and save lives in the interim.

Did a New York Times article inspire Trump's 'back to work' plan? [The Guardian]

Katz’s piece was shared widely among conservatives, including by Fox News host and informal Trump adviser Pete Hegseth. The article served as a handy tool for conservatives advancing the argument that the economy shouldn’t be sacrificed for coronavirus containment.

A group of Yale epidemiologists swiftly wrote a letter to the Times, rebutting Katz’s piece. Others pointed out Katz’s lack of credentials and his links to big industry. He was once paid $3,500 an hour as an expert witness in a Chobani legal case to defend the sugar contained in its yoghurts.

Katz has received hundreds of thousands of dollars from companies including Hershey’s, Kind Bars, the walnut industry and Quaker Oats. The science journalist Nina Teicholz has written about how in some cases, Katz wrote positive articles about those companies after receiving grants...

Yale itself went to lengths to distance itself from Katz. “David Katz is not academically affiliated with Yale and has not held an academic appointment here since 2016,” the university posted on Twitter.

I do wonder about Dr Katz's motivation. Why didn't he present his proposals in an academic setting instead of in a New York Times editorial? He created an exit door for a White House that already wanted to do something (i.e. have people go back to work) and it gives the White House an academic veneer to do something they already wanted to do. When the case counts and death counts start increasing again, it gives the anti-science crowd another opportunity to say, "See, you can't believe the scientists".

 

[KaraBulut]

It was a story reporting that which actually got me scared for the first time during all of this.

To put it into perspective- these clotting issues are not uncommon in "novel" viruses (i.e. viruses that humans have no exposure history or immunity to). It's been seen in Ebola, Marburg, Hanta and other viruses. It was a surprise in coronavirus because the assumption was that patients with COVID-19 typically died of lung issues (e.g. pneumonia, respiratory failure).

It has created a uncertainty that some of the COVID-19 deaths might have been erroneously categorized as heart attacks or strokes when it was actually a clotting activation caused by the virus.

 

[rareboy]

As someone with a genetic hypercoagulability disorder...this is a very interesting aspect to this virus. I am on Rivoraxaban, of course...but haven't seen whether it or Warfarin are effective in lessening symptoms or in treatment.

The studies seem to have been with the use of Heparin therapy so far.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32220112

 

[rareboy]

Good trend this week in Ontario...our rolling average shows the start of a trend in decrease in cases.

As a result, we are now back in the saddle as different non-public contact sectors start to come back on-line this week.

From this side of the border though.....it is disturbing to hear the revised projection of over 100,000 deaths in the US at the same time that there is such a concerted effort to abandon physical distancing, avoidance of crowds and full re-opening in states reporting increases and deaths.

 

[smokeshadow]

oops

https://www.thenewcivilrightsmoveme...y-june-plows-forward-with-campaign-to-reopen/

We had nothing to do with this and the data nowhere reflects actuality
https://www.thenewcivilrightsmoveme...jection-of-near-doubling-of-deaths-by-june-1/

Mods - this probably belongs over in the political ramifications thread, so please move

 

[KaraBulut]

...The studies seem to have been with the use of Heparin therapy so far.

Heparin was discovered to work in the Marburg outbreaks in the 60s to stop the DIC cycle before platelets and clotting factors were exhausted, so it's good news that it has validated with COVID-19. I had heard some anecdotal comments that the NYC cases had clotted hemodialysis and CAVHD filters in some of the COVID-19 patients .

...From this side of the border though.....it is disturbing to hear the revised projection of over 100,000 deaths in the US at the same time that there is such a concerted effort to abandon physical distancing, avoidance of crowds and full re-opening in states reporting increases and deaths.

CNN did a nice article about Boccaccio's account of 14th century human response to the plague that included "drink and be merry" and selfishness. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

 

[Kyanimal]

Yeah, I said "county", not "country".

^ That is, indeed, what you typed. However, it wasn't what I "read". My bad!

 

[Telstra]

wow

 

[rareboy]

Heparin was discovered to work in the Marburg outbreaks in the 60s to stop the DIC cycle before platelets and clotting factors were exhausted, so it's good news that it has validated with COVID-19. I had heard some anecdotal comments that the NYC cases had clotted hemodialysis and CAVHD filters in some of the COVID-19 patients .


CNN did a nice article about Boccaccio's account of 14th century human response to the plague that included "drink and be merry" and selfishness. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

I have been recommending the Decameron as required reading for many people these past few weeks.

 

[belamyi]

^ And when you get either bored or pissed, you can revisit the Decameron-inspired Tales by La Fontaine: they say nothing about plagues, but at least they are humorous and deal with sex and mischief

 

[KaraBulut]

Update on this study out of New York State:

• 15,000 people were tested randomly at grocery stores across the state
• 12.3% of New York state has tested positive
• 19.9% of New York City has tested positive
• The highest rate of infection is in the Bronx with 27.6% testing positive (Bronx: 27.6%, Brooklyn: 19.2%, Manhattan: 17.3%, Queens: 18.4%, Staten Island: 19.2%)
• Cuomo didn't detail the positive stats for rural areas of but preliminary results indicated that it was much lower in upstate NY

New York releases preliminary coronavirus antibody test results [Axios]

This was a very small sample - 3,000 people but if this proves to be extensible to the larger population, it is higher than the 5% infection rate estimated by Harvard epidemiologists. Unfortunately, it would be too low for the 50-70% needed for herd immunity.

New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says [CNBC]

 

[zoltanspawn]

I've avoided commenting on Dr. Katz because I do think we need to hear other opinions (and Dr Katz is voicing an opinion, not citing evidence-based practice). His colleagues, however, haven't been as restrained:

The Wrong Way to Fight Coronavirus: Yale health experts take strong issue with an Op-Ed essay that suggested letting the virus run its course. [NY Times]

Did a New York Times article inspire Trump's 'back to work' plan? [The Guardian]

I do wonder about Dr Katz's motivation. Why didn't he present his proposals in an academic setting instead of in a New York Times editorial? He created an exit door for a White House that already wanted to do something (i.e. have people go back to work) and it gives the White House an academic veneer to do something they already wanted to do. When the case counts and death counts start increasing again, it gives the anti-science crowd another opportunity to say, "See, you can't believe the scientists".

Here is Katz followup: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/coronavirus-risk-ruin-ideas-hope-david/

Can't say I see a Trump supporter in that, or in the video I posted.

It seems likely to me he believes in what he's saying.

I think it's probably fairest to try to grapple with his proposals first, and wonder about his motivations later, turnaround being fair play and all that, muddied arguments, squaring off, bad dialogue.

I think we should save lives first and settle our political scores as they come due.

 

[belamyi]

^ That was not an "editorial", that's a "story": journalism doesn't throw editorials, news... they only run "stories", and to get to any sort of info you must endure a fucking entry in someone's diary.

It took me just over two minutes to go over the whole "story", and what he seems to suggest, if I did not skip anything important over that nerdy, pompous verbiage, is that the US should face this crisis the same way it has developed itself: optimize resources at the core, where you protect the chosen ones, press on the pedal, and go full throttle ahead while the fodder clears up the way and takes the brunt of the risk of your decision.

 

[belamyi]

^ "Where you keep the chosen ones protected"...

 

[KaraBulut]

5-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 3,601,760 (up from 3,523,121 / %) - *‬*78,639 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 251,910 (up from 247,752) - **4,158 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,180,634 cases (up from 1,158,341 / 1.9% yesterday, ‬**22,293 new cases)
- Deaths reported in the US - 68,934 deaths, 1,248 deaths yesterday , 30% of the world's new deaths were in the US
- Testing: - 7,285,178 tests (up from 7,053,366 yesterday, +231,812 tests), 2.2% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 318,953 (up from 316,415 / +2,538)
- Cases reported in NYC - 170,534 (up from 168,845 / +‬1,689), hospitalized 43,045
- Deaths reported in NYC - 18,909 (up from 18,706 / +203), confirmed 13,536, suspected 5,373

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,180,634 (up from 1,158,341 / 1.9%) - 68,934 deaths
• Italy - 211,938 (up from 210,717 / 0.6%) - 29,079 deaths / 82,879 recovered
• UK - 191,832 (up from 187,842 / 2.1%) - 28,809 deaths / 910 recovered
• France - 169,583 (down from 168,925 / 0.4%) - 25,204 deaths / 51,476 recovered
• Russia - 155,370 (up from 145,268 / 7.0%) - 1,451 deaths
• Turkey - 127,659 (up from 126,045 / 1.3%) - 3,461 deaths
• Brazil - 108,620 (up from 101,826 / 6.7%) - 7,367 deaths
• Canada - 61,957 (up from 60,504 / 2.4%) - 4,003 deaths
• India - 46,476 (up from 42,670 / 8.9%) - 1,571 deaths
• Netherlands - 40,968 (up from 40,769 / 0.5%) - 5,184 deaths / 138 recovered
• Mexico - 24,905 (up from 23,471 / 6.1%) - 2,271 deaths
• Sweden - 22,721 (up from 22,317 / 1.8%) - 2,854 deaths
• Ireland - 21,772 (up from 21,506 / 1.2%) - 1,319 deaths / 13,386 recovered
• Japan - 15,078 (up from 14,877 / 1.4%) - 536 deaths

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain - 218,011 (up from 217,466 / 0.3%) - 25,428 deaths / 121,343 recovered
• Germany - 166,199 (up from 165,664 / 0.3%) - 6,993 deaths / 135,100 recovered
• China - 83,966 (up from 83,964 / 0%) - 4,637 deaths / 78,847 recovered
• Iran - 99,970 (up from 98,647 / 1.3%) - 6,340 deaths / 80,475 recovered
• Belgium - 50,509 (up from 50,267 / 0.5%) - 8,016 deaths / 45,815 recovered
• Switzerland - 30,009 (up from 29,981 / 0.1%) - 1,790 deaths / 25,200 recovered
• South Korea - 10,804 (up from 10,801 / 0%) - 254 deaths / 9,283 recovered
• Australia - 6,851 (up from 6,823 / 0.4%) - 97 deaths / 5,890 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,486 (down from 1,487 / 0%) - 20 deaths / 1,302 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 318,953 (up from 316,415 / 0.8%) - 24,999 deaths
• New Jersey - 128,269 (up from 126,744 / 1.2%) - 7,910 deathss
• Massachusetts - 69,087 (up from 68,087 / 1.5%) - 4,090 deaths
• Illinois - 63,777 (up from 61,499 / 3.7%) - 2,659 deaths
• California - 56,135 (up from 54,924 / 2.2%) - 2,289 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 52,816 (up from 51,225 / 3.1%) - 2,838 deaths
• Michigan - 43,990 (up from 43,801 / 0.4%) - 4,139 deaths
• Florida - 36,897 (up from 36,078 / 2.3%) - 1,399 deaths
• Texas - 32,812 (up from 31,998 / 2.5%) - 902 deaths
• Connecticut - 29,973 (up from 29,287 / 2.3%) - 2,556 deaths
• Louisiana - 29,673 (up from 29,340 / 1.1%) - 2,064 deaths
• Georgia - 29,452 (up from 28,945 / 1.8%) - 1,246 deaths
• Maryland - 26,408 (up from 25,462 / 3.7%) - 1,317 deaths
• Ohio - 20,474 (up from 19,914 / 2.8%) - 1,057 deaths
• Indiana - 20,507 (up from 19,933 / 2.9%) - 1,151 deaths
• Virginia - 19,493 (up from 18,672 / 4.4%) - 684 deaths
• Colorado - 16,918 (up from 16,635 / 1.7%) - 851 deaths
• Washington - 15,462 (up from 15,185 / 1.8%) - 841 deaths
• Tennessee - 13,571 (up from 13,177 / 3.0%) - 219 deaths
• Iowa - 9,703 (up from 9,175 / 5.8%) - 188 deaths
• Wisconsin - 8,236 (up from 7,964 / 3.4%) - 340 deaths
• Minnesota - 7,234 (up from 6,663 / 8.6%) - 427 deaths
• Nebraska - 6,037 (up from 5,661 / 6.6%) - 78 deaths
• South Dakota - 2,668 (up from 2,631 / 1.4%) - 21 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 5,836 (up from 5,766 / 1.2%) - 104 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,224 (up from 2,171 / 2.4%) - 117 deaths
• Manitoba - 283 (up from 282 / 0.4%) - 6 deaths
• New Brunswick - 118 (unchanged from 118 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 259 (unchanged from 259 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 3 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 985 (up from 971 / 1.4%) - 38 deaths
• Ontario - 19,097 (up from 18,574 / 2.8%) - 1,300 deaths
• Quebec - 32,631 (up from 31,873 / 2.4%) - 2,280 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 467 (up from 433 / 7.9%) - 7 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[rareboy]

My sister tells me that they have had children presenting with Kawasaki syndrome at her hospital here in Ontario. They noticed this some weeks ago.

I suspect that when people start to realize that this may also kill their children or seriously sicken them....and it isn't just about old people...it will adjust thinking about distancing.

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/co...BMm9O9sBsqLtXYW4erhT_lPCvSBmr13Jvv8PaAH92klEI

 

[KaraBulut]

My sister tells me that they have had children presenting with Kawasaki syndrome at her hospital here in Ontario. They noticed this some weeks ago.

I suspect that when people start to realize that this may also kill their children or seriously sicken them....and it isn't just about old people...it will adjust thinking about distancing.

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/co...BMm9O9sBsqLtXYW4erhT_lPCvSBmr13Jvv8PaAH92klEI

The NYC Health Department sent out the alert yesterday about the 15 children in the NYC area. One curious thing I noticed about their reports: the majority of the the children had negative antigen screens but positive antibody screens. So, many of these children had recovered from COVID-19 infections and were developing Kawasaki symptoms days or weeks later.

More of the recurring theme about how complicated this virus is turning out to be.