On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[belamyi]

BCN and Northern metro area:

R0 at 0,95 for the past 3 weeks
CCB occupancy: 50%
Seroprevalence studies point at population immunity remaining under 10%

 

[KaraBulut]

BCN and Northern metro area:

R0 at 0,95 for the past 3 weeks
CCB occupancy: 50%
Seroprevalence studies point at population immunity remaining under 10%

That's surprising. With the heavy distribution in urban areas with high density and mass transit, I would have though they would have had a higher antibody positive rate. I read an article about a month ago saying that Spain had received a bunch of faulty antigen tests and had changed their mass testing strategy.

Based upon their mortality, Spain's case counts should be around 850,000 people instead of the 218,000 confirmed cases that they're reporting. It is a sign though if there's a 10% positive rate in greater Barcelona, then that could mean up to 400,000 were exposed just in Barcelona?

The official "confirmed" cases reported:
Comunidad de Madrid - 62,395 (28.6%)
Catalonia - 50,366 (23.1%)
Castilla y León - 17,334 (8.0%)
Castilla–La Mancha - 16,050 (7.4%)
Comunidad Autónoma Vasca - 12,952 (5.9%)

 

[belamyi]

^ I quoted the data from a researcher who points at them to show that we are not prepared to face lockout in relative safety. The immunity is highlighted as being under, maybe around 5%, while some other speak of 15%, which is equally low.

About the faulty tests, the company that produced them indicated that the faultiness had been more in the use or, rather, in the purchase: they were a model of test which had a sensitivity of only 30%, so they were not meant to be used as rapid tests.

About the count, it seems obvious that countries with a higher count are more likely to be countries offering a more reliable, accurate total, even if continues to reflect the actual incidence of the disease. Some Spanish regions, particularly the two more severely inflicted, offer parallel count, no officially recognized by the government, and including the deaths reported by funeral homes, which almost double those included in the global data that see internationally reported for Spain. In any case, like in the rest of Western Europe, the carnage has been among the elderly in residential care, but the medical staff has beeb hit harder over here: around 20%, they constitute a good part of the more recent new cases: this morning it was officially reported that two hospitals in Madrid and Barcelona have a 11% of their staff infected by the virus.

 

[KaraBulut]

...About the faulty tests, the company that produced them indicated that the faultiness had been more in the use or, rather, in the purchase: they were a model of test which had a sensitivity of only 30%, so they were not meant to be used as rapid tests.

I found the stories that you referenced:
Coronavirus test kits withdrawn in Spain over poor accuracy rate [The Guardian]
And it sounds like they had two rounds of problems with those tests from Bioeasy?
Spain seeks refund for defective coronavirus tests, after replacement kits also prove faulty [El País]

If I read this story correctly, there has also been complaints about some of the antibody tests- 33% are false positives, no?
Tests used with the Madrid healthcare workers are not reliable [El País]

...no officially recognized by the government, and including the deaths reported by funeral homes, which almost double those included in the global data that see internationally reported for Spain.

It's been a problem in the US, too- particularly in march before the CDC allowed a COVID-19 post-mortem diagnosis when no test was done.

...In any case, like in the rest of Western Europe, the carnage has been among the elderly in residential care, but the medical staff has beeb hit harder over here: around 20%, they constitute a good part of the more recent new cases: this morning it was officially reported that two hospitals in Madrid and Barcelona have a 11% of their staff infected by the virus.

That's also been an issue in the US. We get reports from our nursing homes that multiple staff members are testing positive but the test results reported up through our State Health Departments don't report occupation, so there's no metric to tell us how many healthcare workers were exposed on the job. There was a CDC report that estimated that over 9,000 healthcare workers had tested positive but that report came out 3 weeks ago before we reached our peak (and there has been nothing- nothing! - from the CDC since then.

 

[zoltanspawn]

My sister tells me that they have had children presenting with Kawasaki syndrome at her hospital here in Ontario. They noticed this some weeks ago.

I suspect that when people start to realize that this may also kill their children or seriously sicken them....and it isn't just about old people...it will adjust thinking about distancing.

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/co...BMm9O9sBsqLtXYW4erhT_lPCvSBmr13Jvv8PaAH92klEI

No children have yet died from this. It's not helpful yet to say we know children "may also" die from it.

Some have suffered significant illness.

The reports are BRAND NEW like only a week or so old. We don't understand this phenomenon, even a little.

No connection between this Kawasaki syndrome and covid-19 has been seriously established.

The issue deserves serious attention and medical study.

But lots of things "may also kill their children" like going for a walk in a park. Until we know if this is a real problem, rhetoric like this is...

fearmongering.

Good policy is based on sound facts, not worry.

 

[KaraBulut]

No children have yet died from this. It's not helpful yet to say we know children "may also" die from it.

By "this" and "it", it's not clear whether you're talking about COVID-19 or this new Kawasaki-like syndrome.

Children have died from COVID-19. Most have had comorbidities but we also haven't seen SARS-2 get into residential homes or medical facilities for children, yet. The mortality for COVID-19 patients under age 18 is estimated to be low- less than 1%- but there's a lot of cases that might have been missed because the early information on COVID-19 was that children didn't get it.

If you're referring to mortality from Kawasaki, the mortality for Kawasaki is generally low- usually less than 1% if it's treated early. And Kawasaki isn't what kills the children who die- it's usually a complication like aneurysm or cardiac failure.

Some have suffered significant illness.

These children are coming in with something that looks like Kawasaki but they're much sicker and their inflammatory markers are 10-100 times the levels that pediatrician intensivists typically see in Kawasaki, so this might be a totally new syndrome or it could be an exacerbated form of Kawasaki.

There's also been a high incidence of a toxic shock syndrome in these kids. They've required hemodynamic support and mechanical ventilation.

The reports are BRAND NEW like only a week or so old. We don't understand this phenomenon, even a little.

It was reported in Europe in early April. Because this seems to be a sequelae of COVID-19 that appears days or weeks after infection, there may have been earlier cases that were missed. It wouldn't surprise me if the Chinese go back and determine that they had pediatric cases in January that were missed.

No connection between this Kawasaki syndrome and covid-19 has been seriously established..

Again, it's early to label this Kawasaki since it seems to be more acute that typical Kawasaki. The link to SARS-2 is established but the pathophysiology isn't understood.

But lots of things "may also kill their children" like going for a walk in a park. Until we know if this is a real problem, rhetoric like this is..
fearmongering. .

Walks in the park aren't listed on the mortality schedules for pediatric patients but neither is Kawasaki. Kawasaki is stlil a rare disorder, which makes its possible connection to COVID-19 even more mysterious. The important thing to keep in mind is that many of the adults dying with COVID-19 have autoimmune dysfunction... which is what Kawasaki is, too.

In this instance, it does challenge the belief that COVID-19 isn't serious in children. And it should give us pause as we're considering whether to reopen public schools.

 

[frankfrank]

there is such a concerted effort to abandon physical distancing, avoidance of crowds and full re-opening in states reporting increases and deaths.

I am NOT going to do anything differently! I think that's an intelligent choice. People get impatient (it's HUMAN) BUT it's going to result in tens or maybe hundreds of thousands more people eventually dying.

The original death projections of 2.1 million IF NOTHING HAD BEEN DONE (masks, social distancing, closures, quarantine, advice to was hands, etc.) was, I think, TOO LOW. There would be the indirect deaths: people dying from heart attacks and strokes, trauma, infections, overdoses, gunshots, influenza, cancer, childbirth, etc. All these other types of medical emergencies would have needed to be attended by semi-trained professionals, or perhaps not even be done at all because all the ICU's being overloaded by ICUs being overcrowded with CoVID-19 patients, and no treatment for things that don't ordinarily kill a high percentage of people.

This can still happen if everything is opened up too quickly. New Jersey may flatten and even decrease the curve, but it won't do any good if Pennsylvania opens everything up! Disease is so much more portable than in 1918.

My protocols are now very strong, now that I got real KN-05 masks and eye goggles. Gloves, and those, worn outside of the condo at all times. I stapled TWO of the masks together (one cupped inside the other) along all the edges, and I SEAL it to my face as much as possible with Gorilla tape! (NOBODY ELSE DOES THIS) These masks aren't "protective" for the wearer because nobody tapes the edges to their faces. However, all of the loose non-adhesives edges are now SEALED against my face, and when I inhale, the mask actually "caves in" - so I'm not drawing air in around the edges. (The mask passed the water test, too - water doesn't soak through when poured into the mask with the cup turned downward.) Goggles keep me from touching my eyes (or any facial openings with the others also covered). I look like a Martian, or even a Walmartian which is worse. I don't fucking care about that.

Coming home, I take *EVERYTHING* off just inside my front entry - even my wristwatch which I spray with 70% alcohol (ran out of Lysol). I don't touch any of the clothing or shoes for FIVE DAYS. I carefully demaracate where shopped things must be placed, and if I don't need to use it quickly it also goes to the five-day pile. If it has to be chilled or frozen, the packaging is sprayed with the disinfectant and left to set over 10 minutes before going in to chill/freeze. I' confident I'm bringing nothing in that I don't want, without killing it. It's a real pain getting the Gorilla-taped mask off, but it's OK if I didn't Gorilla-tape too close to the area below the lower eyelids, because that skin is the loosest on the entire body.

It sounds like I'm going "overboard" but I can DEAL. The big motivation behind all of this is, then, NOT HAVING TO WASH MY HANDS OVER AND OVER AND OVER, AGAIN, AND AGAIN...AND tearing them apart with painful cracking and chapping. My hands WOULD NOT SURVIVE washing 40 times a Day - I am sure I would be hospitalized by "shattering skin" from that. (I've always had an unusual problem with that. My skin has almost never manufactured ANY oil.) Even with strong proscription ointments, I still have cracking hands. which kind of resemble the pavement in the old East Germany. (I thank a customer for that...)

TDhese quarantimes(oh, I LOVE portmanteau!) will be around for a while because, as I'vv proven to myself I can observe and practice them, I WILL. Why not?
!

 

[belamyi]

I am NOT going to do anything differently! I think that's an intelligent choice. People get impatient (it's HUMAN) BUT (...)

Not childish, but "human": Shakesperian passions and crimes are very "human" too. "Humane" is a different thing.

I will keep reading when I have the (artificial ) heart of it...

 

[KaraBulut]

6-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 3,682,968 (up from 3,601,760 / 2.3%) - *‬*81,208 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 257,906 (up from 251,910) - **5,996 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,204,475 cases (up from 1,180,634 / 2.0% yesterday), ‬**23,841 new cases
- Deaths reported in the US - 71,078 deaths, 2,144 deaths yesterday , 36% of the world's new deaths were in the US
- Testing: - 7,544,328 tests (up from 7,285,178 yesterday, +259,150 tests), 2.3% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 321,192 (up from 318,953 / +2,239)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,028,899 (up from 1,007,310‬ / +21,589)- 31% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 171,723 (up from 170,534 / +1,189), hospitalized 43,383
- Deaths reported in NYC - 19,107 (up from 18,909 / +198), confirmed 13,724, suspected 5,383

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,204,475 (up from 1,180,634 / 2.0%) - 71,078 deaths
• Italy - 213,013 (up from 211,938 / 0.5%) - 29,315 deaths / 85,231 recovered
• UK - 196,243 (up from 191,832 / 2.3%) - 29,501 deaths
• France - 170,694 (down from 169,583 / 0.7%) - 25,538 deaths / 52,859 recovered
• Russia - 165,929 (up from 155,370 / 6.8%) - 1,537 deaths
• Turkey - 129,491 (up from 127,659 / 1.4%) - 3,520 deaths
• Brazil - 115,953 (up from 108,620 / 6.8%) - 7,966 deaths
• Canada - 63,215 (up from 61,957 / 2.0%) - 4,190 deaths
• India - 49,436 (up from 46,476 / 6.4%) - 1,695 deaths
• Netherlands - 41,286 (up from 40,968 / 0.8%) - 5,221 deaths / 139 recovered
• Mexico - 26,025 (up from 24,905 / 4.5%) - 2,507 deaths
• Sweden - 23,216 (up from 22,721 / [2.2%) - 2,941 deaths
• Ireland - 21,983 (up from 21,772 / 1.0%) - 1,339 deaths / 13,386 recovered
• Japan - 15,253 (up from 15,078 / 1.2%) - 556 deaths

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain - 219,329 (up from 216,582 / 0.6%) - 25,613 deaths / 123,486 recovered
• Germany - 167,007 (up from 166,199 / 0.5%) - 6,993 deaths / 137,400 recovered
• China - 83,968 (up from 83,966 / 0.0%) - 4,637 deaths / 78,900 recovered
• Iran - 101,650 (up from 99,970 / 1.7%) - 6,418 deaths / 81,587 recovered
• Belgium - 50,781 (up from 50,509 / 0.5%) - 8,339 deaths / 12,731 recovered
• Switzerland - 30,060 (up from 30,009 / 0.2%) - 1,795 deaths / 25,400 recovered
• South Korea - 10,806 (up from 10,804 / 0.0%) - 255 deaths / 9,333 recovered
• Australia - 6,875 (up from 6,851 / 0.4%) - 97 deaths / 5,986 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,488 (down from 1,486 / 0.1%) - 21 deaths / 1,316 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 321,192 (up from 318,953 / 0.7%) - 25,124 deaths
• New Jersey - 130,593 (up from 128,269 / 1.8%) - 8,244 deaths
• Massachusetts - 70,271 (up from 69,087 / 1.7%) - 4,212 deaths
• Illinois - 65,889 (up from 63,777 / 3.3%) - 2,834 deaths
• California - 58,685 (up from 56,135 / 4.5%) - 2,388 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 53,864 (up from 52,816 / 2.0%) - 3,179 deaths
• Michigan - 44,451 (up from 43,990 / 1.0%) - 4,183 deaths
• Florida - 37,439 (up from 36,897 / 1.5%) - 1,471 deaths
• Texas - 33,912 (up from 32,812 / 3.4%) - 925 deaths
• Connecticut - 30,621 (up from 29,973 / 2.2%) - 2,633 deaths
• Louisiana - 29,996 (up from 29,673 / 1.1%) - 2,115 deaths
• Georgia - 29,899 (up from 29,452 / 1.5%) - 1,298 deaths
• Maryland - 27,117 (up from 26,408 / 2.7%) - 1,390 deaths
• Ohio - 20,969 (up from 20,474 / 2.4%) - 1,135 deaths
• Indiana - 21,033 (up from 20,507 / 2.6%) - 1,211 deaths
• Virginia - 20,257 (up from 19,493 / 3.9%) - 713 deaths
• Colorado - 17,367 (up from 16,918 / 2.7%) - 903 deaths
• Washington - 15,594 (up from 15,462 / 0.9%) - 862 deaths
• Tennessee - 13,690 (up from 13,571 / 0.9%) - 226 deaths
• Iowa - 10,111 (up from 9,703 / 4.2%) - 207 deaths
• Wisconsin - 8,566 (up from 8,236 / 4.0%) - 353 deaths
• Minnesota - 7,851 (up from 7,234 / 8.5%) - 455 deaths
• Nebraska - 6,371 (up from 6,037 / 5.5%) - 78 deaths
• South Dakota - 2,721 (up from 2,668 / 2.0%) - 24 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 5,893 (up from 5,836 / 1.0%) - 106 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,232 (up from 2,224 / 0.4%) - 121 deaths
• Manitoba - 284 (up from 283 / 0.4%) - 6 deaths
• New Brunswick - 119 (up from 118 / 0.8%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 259 (unchanged from 259 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 3 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 991 (up from 985 / 0.6%) - 41 deaths
• Ontario - 19,468 (up from 19,097 / 1.9%) - 1,361 deaths
• Quebec - 33,425 (up from 32,631 / 2.4%) - 2,398 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 487 (up from 467 / 4.3%) - 7 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[KaraBulut]

To call out another unfortunate milestone: the death count in the UK has surpassed the death count in every other European country. It is second only to the US.

UK is claiming a 15% mortality which probably means that the case count is undercounted. Don't be surprised if at some point, the UK finds that they have 600,000 to 800,000 people who had coronavirus infections.

It's also likely that the counts in the Spain and Italy are much higher- something discussed in the posts between Belamo and me yesterday.

US - 1,204,475 (up from 1,180,634 / 2.0%) - 71,078 deaths
Spain - 219,329 (up from 216,582 / 0.6%) - 25,613 deaths / 123,486 recovered
Italy - 213,013 (up from 211,938 / 0.5%) - 29,315 deaths / 85,231 recovered
UK - 196,243 (up from 191,832 / 2.3%) - 29,501 deaths

 

[rareboy]

By "this" and "it", it's not clear whether you're talking about COVID-19 or this new Kawasaki-like syndrome.

Children have died from COVID-19. Most have had comorbidities but we also haven't seen SARS-2 get into residential homes or medical facilities for children, yet. The mortality for COVID-19 patients under age 18 is estimated to be low- less than 1%- but there's a lot of cases that might have been missed because the early information on COVID-19 was that children didn't get it.

If you're referring to mortality from Kawasaki, the mortality for Kawasaki is generally low- usually less than 1% if it's treated early. And Kawasaki isn't what kills the children who die- it's usually a complication like aneurysm or cardiac failure.


These children are coming in with something that looks like Kawasaki but they're much sicker and their inflammatory markers are 10-100 times the levels that pediatrician intensivists typically see in Kawasaki, so this might be a totally new syndrome or it could be an exacerbated form of Kawasaki.

There's also been a high incidence of a toxic shock syndrome in these kids. They've required hemodynamic support and mechanical ventilation.



It was reported in Europe in early April. Because this seems to be a sequelae of COVID-19 that appears days or weeks after infection, there may have been earlier cases that were missed. It wouldn't surprise me if the Chinese go back and determine that they had pediatric cases in January that were missed.



Again, it's early to label this Kawasaki since it seems to be more acute that typical Kawasaki but the link is established but the pathophysiology isn't understood.


Walks in the park aren't listed on the mortality schedules for pediatric patients but neither is Kawasaki. Kawasaki is stlil a rare disorder, which makes it's connection to COVID-19 even more mysterious. The important thing to keep in mind is that many of the adults dying with COVID-19 have autoimmune dysfunction... which is what Kawasaki is, too.

In this instance, it does challenge the belief that COVID-19 isn't serious in children. And it should give us pause as we're considering whether to reopen public schools.

I remember how baffled everyone was when Kaposi's sarcoma kept turning up in the early days when AIDS wasn't even an acronym yet. Kaposi's sarcoma was also very rare...and then suddenly it wasn't. Hopefully COVID doesn't trigger the same type of response with Kawasaki.

And frankly, I don't care if people are scared.

At this point, the only thing that we know is that suddenly this is turning up. Not being overly cautious until more is known could be damaging or even possibly fatal if this mutates in such a way as to hit the youngest as well as the oldest....like what happened when Spanish flu ran rampant in its second wave around the globe.

 

[belamyi]

I found the stories that you referenced:
Coronavirus test kits withdrawn in Spain over poor accuracy rate [The Guardian]
And it sounds like they had two rounds of problems with those tests from Bioeasy?
Spain seeks refund for defective coronavirus tests, after replacement kits also prove faulty [El País]

If I read this story correctly, there has also been complaints about some of the antibody tests- 33% are false positives, no?
Tests used with the Madrid healthcare workers are not reliable [El País]


It's been a problem in the US, too- particularly in march before the CDC allowed a COVID-19 post-mortem diagnosis when no test was done.


That's also been an issue in the US. We get reports from our nursing homes that multiple staff members are testing positive but the test results reported up through our State Health Departments don't report occupation, so there's no metric to tell us how many healthcare workers were exposed on the job. There was a CDC report that estimated that over 9,000 healthcare workers had tested positive but that report came out 3 weeks ago before we reached our peak (and there has been nothing- nothing! - from the CDC since then.

So much for enjoying the most "competitive" and "efficient" healthcare systems: a good balance sheet provides a good death and infection balance too.

 

[rareboy]

To call out another unfortunate milestone: the death count in the UK has surpassed the death count in every other European country. It is second only to the US.

UK is claiming a 15% mortality which probably means that the case count is undercounted. Don't be surprised if at some point, the UK finds that they have 600,000 to 800,000 people who had coronavirus infections.

It's also likely that the counts in the Spain and Italy are much higher- something discussed in the posts between Belamo and me yesterday.

How did the UK fuck this up so badly?

It isn't as though the Brits are all that huggy/smoochy or close quartered unless the highest concentrations are in the poorer and more ethnic communities where extended families living together or more physical closeness is a thing.

“It puts into question whether the government’s tactics at the start of the pandemic were sufficiently fast, and especially whether the lockdown should have happened earlier and whether we should have been better prepared with increased capacity for viral testing and contact tracing from the start. Both have proven inadequate.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...h-toll-rises-above-32000-to-highest-in-europe

Certainly, it seems that the UK, along with many other countries severely missed the mark on care home case containment and deaths.....but even so.

 

[KaraBulut]

...At this point, the only thing that we know is that suddenly this is turning up. Not being overly cautious until more is known could be damaging or even possibly fatal if this mutates in such a way as to hit the youngest as well as the oldest....like what happened when Spanish flu ran rampant in its second wave around the globe.

I am really interested to hear more about these case studies- whether they knew up front that these children had COVID-19 (i.e. were the symptomatic?) or whether the European cases gave them the insight to test for SARS-2 antigen and antibodies. Some of the early information that is being released is really puzzling.

So much for enjoying the most "competitive" and "efficient" healthcare systems: a good balance sheet provides a good death and infection balance too.

In reading some of the articles about what the Spanish healthcare system did in April, I was thinking to myself that they seemed to really be thinking and planning this out. Running quality assurance validation on those tests they bought really saved them some problems later on.

Honestly, comparing these stories to what has been happening in the US is embarrassing. The FDA has been rubber stamping tests without doing any validation. The US governments has been in panic mode and operating without a plan. The Federal Government looks like a banana republic or more accurately, like a cat in a sandbox desperately trying to cover the mess they made.

How did the UK fuck this up so badly?

Same as the US: No Plan.... at least until it was too late.

They elected a populist government that didn't take it seriously and didn't pull in experts to make a plan until it was too late. They looked at China as the problem when the majority of their cases originated in Europe and by the time they realized this, the conduit between international travel, trains and domestic mass transit systems had created thousands of cases. It took Prince Charles testing positive and Boris Johnson nearly dying to make the government change their tone. I'm not sure how it felt on the ground in Spain when things got really bad but reading some of the stories about actions that were taken in Spain, it sounded like they were using their public health experts and they were trying to learn from China and Italy.

Listen to Johnson's speech from today. He's taking this very seriously now. He's got a lot of dead bodies piling up with no end in sight. To his credit, he's not bowing to pressure to pull back on the stay at home order.

 

[rareboy]

As the article notes...it isn't the same as Kawasaki...but can create serious cardiac issues.

“This is presenting very much like a common childhood illness, which it is not,” she said. “This is a novel diagnosis that doesn’t exactly have a name, doesn’t exactly have a timeline, doesn’t exactly have a protocol. We didn’t learn about this in medical school.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/...rjgGG5qsk4iPP-ymcBpi_IduD1TCz-IcXY2bjh86VHKWE

When you read about so many other unheard of impacts on the human body from COVID that are presenting in acute cases....I gotta say...nature really has handed us a challenge this time around. Hopefully we won't just waste the opportunities to push further like we have when other diseases have quietened down and all the funding and attention goes back to making better boner pills or providing cover for our bad nutritional and lifestyle choices.

 

[KaraBulut]

No children have yet died from this. It's not helpful yet to say we know children "may also" die from it.

As the article notes...it isn't the same as Kawasaki...but can create serious cardiac issues.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/...rjgGG5qsk4iPP-ymcBpi_IduD1TCz-IcXY2bjh86VHKWE

A couple of things in the article which differ from what I said in my post yesterday:

1. It's not just the 15 cases that NYC Health mentioned in their alert- the article says that NY State has found 64 cases plus there have been additional cases reported in areas of the US with high COVID-19 cases. Europe is reporting at least 50 cases.
2. One child- a 14 year old- has died of the Kawasaki-like syndrome (that they're calling "pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome" until they determine what it is).

 

[zoltanspawn]

And... it turns out that the author of the highly influential study that immediately preceded all the lockdowns has been visiting his girlfriend in private.

And is stepping down from his postion as a coronavirus adviser because of his "errors of judgment".

Too early and explosive for the study to be retracted, but maybe years from now...

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-52553229

 

[KaraBulut]

An interesting statistics anomaly: U.S. prisons have been finding hundreds and in some cases, thousands of jails/prisons and staff who have tested positive for coronavirus. The interesting thing is that reporting policy varies between the States. Some states are reporting their incarcerated cases in with the numbers that their State Health Departments.

Often this means that the positive cases are reported in the county where the prison is located.

In some States, reporting is a political football. The counties where the prisons are located do not want those cases reported with their county. Instead, they are reporting the cases to the State along with the "home" county where the prisoner once resided. It is then optional as to whether the home county wants to add those cases to their numbers.

Meanwhile, the CDC is trying to figure out how many prisoners have tested positive. Only 37 States have responded to the CDC's request with data from 420 of the 5,000 prisons and jails in the US. In those 37 states, 4,893 inmates had tested positive and 88 had died. 2,778 employees at the prisons had tested positive and 15 had died.

The US has 2.1 million people who are incarcerated.

CDC report details extent of coronavirus outbreaks in U.S. jails and prisons [CBS]

A new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is providing the first snapshot of the extent of coronavirus outbreaks in correctional facilities and detention centers across the U.S., where thousands of inmates and staff have tested positive and dozens have died.

Jails and prisons, where social distancing is nearly impossible, have emerged as hotspots for COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. For its report released Wednesday, the CDC sought data from health departments in 54 states and territories and heard back from 37.

Thirty-two of the jurisdictions that responded reported at least one laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 case among detainees or staff members in 420 separate jails and prisons. In those facilities, 4,893 inmates had been diagnosed with COVID-19 as of April 21, and 88 had died. Staff members accounted for 2,778 cases and 15 deaths.

 

[zoltanspawn]

By "this" and "it", it's not clear whether you're talking about COVID-19 or this new Kawasaki-like syndrome.

Children have died from COVID-19. Most have had comorbidities but we also haven't seen SARS-2 get into residential homes or medical facilities for children, yet. The mortality for COVID-19 patients under age 18 is estimated to be low- less than 1%- but there's a lot of cases that might have been missed because the early information on COVID-19 was that children didn't get it.

If you're referring to mortality from Kawasaki, the mortality for Kawasaki is generally low- usually less than 1% if it's treated early. And Kawasaki isn't what kills the children who die- it's usually a complication like aneurysm or cardiac failure.


These children are coming in with something that looks like Kawasaki but they're much sicker and their inflammatory markers are 10-100 times the levels that pediatrician intensivists typically see in Kawasaki, so this might be a totally new syndrome or it could be an exacerbated form of Kawasaki.

There's also been a high incidence of a toxic shock syndrome in these kids. They've required hemodynamic support and mechanical ventilation.



It was reported in Europe in early April. Because this seems to be a sequelae of COVID-19 that appears days or weeks after infection, there may have been earlier cases that were missed. It wouldn't surprise me if the Chinese go back and determine that they had pediatric cases in January that were missed.



Again, it's early to label this Kawasaki since it seems to be more acute that typical Kawasaki. The link to SARS-2 is established but the pathophysiology isn't understood.


Walks in the park aren't listed on the mortality schedules for pediatric patients but neither is Kawasaki. Kawasaki is stlil a rare disorder, which makes its possible connection to COVID-19 even more mysterious. The important thing to keep in mind is that many of the adults dying with COVID-19 have autoimmune dysfunction... which is what Kawasaki is, too.

In this instance, it does challenge the belief that COVID-19 isn't serious in children. And it should give us pause as we're considering whether to reopen public schools.

A couple of things in the article which differ from what I said in my post yesterday:

1. It's not just the 15 cases that NYC Health mentioned in their alert- the article says that NY State has found 64 cases plus there have been additional cases reported in areas of the US with high COVID-19 cases. Europe is reporting at least 50 cases.
2. One child- a 14 year old- has died of the Kawasaki-like syndrome (that they're calling "pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome" until they determine what it is).

The Kawasaki like syndrome is definitely something for experts, clinicians and academicians to include in their study and treatment.

Is it something the general public should yet worry about? As in, IT MAY KILL YOUR CHILDREN!

I'm afraid I don't see anything in the above posts yet to indicate we, the great unwashed, should start panicking over.

 

[Kyanimal]

I'm afraid I don't see anything in the above posts yet to indicate we, the great unwashed, should start panicking over.

I don't think "they're" promoting 'panic'. More like advising us, and hopefully creating informed concern. If it is a result of covid infection, even losing one kid, related and/or known to me, or not, is one too many, especially if following sound advice has been ignored, poo-pooed away, sloughed off.

Wear a mask. Keep your distance. Wash your paws. Protect yourself, and those around you, Including kids.

Reduce the number of those who wrongly think, and blithely shrug, "No prob!" They are the ones aiding, and abetting, an invisible, Known, mass killer.