On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[KaraBulut]

Your thoughts about this.
Michael Melham, the mayor of Belleville, New Jersey, said he got corona virus in November 2019.
And he said many people got corona virus in November.

Post #857.

 

[KaraBulut]

8-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 3,864,696 (up from 3,772,367 / 2.4%) - *‬*92,329 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 270,020 (up from 264,111) - **5,909 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,256,972 cases (up from 1,228,609 / 2.3% yesterday), ‬**28,363 new cases
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 5,592 (19.7%), outside NJ/NY - 22,771 (80.2%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 75,670 deaths, 2,239 deaths yesterday , 38% of the world's new deaths were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 779 (34.8%), outside NJ/NY - 1,460 (65.2%)
- Testing: - 8,105,513 tests (up from 7,759,771 yesterday, +345,742 tests), 2.4% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 327,469 (up from 323,978 / +3,491)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,055,921 (up from 1,028,899‬ / +33,995)- 31% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 174,709 (up from 173,288 / +1,421), hospitalized 43,744
- Deaths reported in NYC - 19,540 (up from 19,297 / +), confirmed 14,162, suspected 5,378

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,256,972 (up from 1,228,609 / 2.3%) - 75,670 deaths
• Italy - 215,858 (up from 214,457 / 0.7%) - 29,958 deaths / 96,276 recovered
• UK - 207,977 (up from 202,359 / 3.1%) - 30,689 deaths
• Russia - 187,859 (up from 177,160 / 6.0%) - 1,723 deaths
• France - 174,918 (down from 174,224 / 0.4%) - 25,990 deaths / 55,191 recovered
• Turkey - 133,721 (up from 131,744 / 1.5%) - 3,641 deaths / 82,984 recovered
• Brazil - 136,519 (up from 126,611 / 7.8%) - 9,265 deaths
• Canada - 66,201 (up from 64,694 / 2.3%) - 4,541 deaths
• India - 56,516 (up from 53,045 / 6.5%) - 1,895 deaths
• Netherlands - 42,292 (up from 41,518 / 1.9%) - 5,377 deaths
• Mexico - 29,616 (up from 27,634 / 7.2% - 2,961 deaths
• Sweden - 24,623 (up from 23,918 / 2.9%) - 3,175 deaths
• Japan - 15,477 (up from 15,253 / 1.5%) - 577 deaths

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain - 221,447 (up from 220,325 / 0.5%) - 26,070 deaths / 128,511 recovered
• Germany - 169,430 (up from 168,162 / 0.8%) - 7,392 deaths / 141,700 recovered
• China - 83,976 (up from 83,974 / 0%) - 4,637 deaths / 78,993 recovered
• Iran - 104,691 (up from 103,135 / 1.5%) - 6,541 deaths / 83,837 recovered
• Belgium - 52,011 (up from 51,420 / 1.1%) - 8,521 deaths / 13,201 recovered
• Switzerland - 30,207 (up from 30,126 / 0.3%) - 1,810 deaths / 25,900 recovered
• Ireland - 22,385 (up from 22,248 / 0.6%) - 1,403 deaths / 17,110 recovered
• South Korea - 10,822 (up from 10,810 / 0.1%) - 256 deaths / 9,484 recovered
• Australia - 6,914 (up from 6,897 / 0.2%) - 97 deaths / 6,079 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,490 (down from 1,489 / 0.1%) - 21 deaths / 1,347 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 327,469 (up from 323,978 / 1.1%) - 26,144 deaths
• New Jersey - 133,991 (up from 131,890 / 1.6%) - 8,807 deaths
• Massachusetts - 73,721 (up from 72,025 / 2.4%) - 4,552 deaths
• Illinois - 70,871 (up from 68,232 / 3.9%) - 3,111 deaths
• California - 62,360 (up from 60,616 / 2.9%) - 2,546 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 55,956 (up from 54,800 / 2.1%) - 3,589 deaths
• Michigan - 45,745 (up from 45,179 / 1.3%) - 4,345 deaths
• Florida - 38,828 (up from 38,002 / 2.2%) - 1,600 deaths
• Texas - 36,047 (up from 34,928 / 3.2%) - 985 deaths
• Connecticut - 31,784 (up from 30,995 / 2.5%) - 2,797 deaths
• Georgia - 31,603 (up from 30,746 / 2.8%) - 1,352 deaths
• Louisiana - 30,652 (up from 30,399 / 0.8%) - 2,208 deaths
• Maryland - 29,374 (up from 28,163 / 4.3%) - 1,503 deaths
• Indiana - 22,503 (up from 21,870 / 2.9%) - 1,414 deaths
• Ohio - 22,131 (up from 21,576 / 2.6%) - 1,271 deaths
• Virginia - 21,570 (up from 20,257 / 6.5%) - 769 deaths
• Colorado - 18,370 (up from 17,832 / 3.0%) - 944 deaths
• Washington - 16,231 (up from 15,905 / 2.0%) - 891 deaths
• Tennessee - 14,096 (up from 13,938 / 1.1%) - 238 deaths
• Iowa - 11,059 (up from 10,404 / 6.3%) - 231 deaths
• Minnesota - 9,365 (up from 8,579 / 9.2%) - 508 deaths
• Wisconsin - 9,215 (up from 8,901 / 3.5%) - 374 deaths
• Nebraska - 7,066 (up from 6,689 / 5.6%) - 91 deaths
• Kansas - 6,332 (up from 5,993) / 5.7%) - 165 deaths
• South Dakota - 2,906 (up from 2,780 / 4.5%) - 31 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 6,017 (up from 5,963 / 0.9%) - 114 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,288 (up from 2,255 / 1.5%) - 126 deaths
• Manitoba - 283 (up from 286 / 0%) - 7 deaths
• New Brunswick - 120 (unchanged from 120 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 261 (up from 259 / 0.8%) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 1,007 (up from 998 / 0.9%) - 44 deaths
• Ontario - 20,388 (up from 19,910 / 2.4%) - 1,540 deaths
• Quebec - 35,249 (up from 34,334 / 2.7%) - 2,631 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 531 (up from 512 / 3.7%) - 6 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[Telstra]

Post #857.

I understood your post.
But it doesn't explain how Michael Melham got his covid19 antibody from, he was very sick with all the covid symptoms in November.

 

[rareboy]

At the Ottawa Hospital, they are doing more research into the blood clotting that results from COVID 19.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/loca...yLwK4jqclnd2zs51TZSZgkyYAE#Echobox=1588791713

For anyone with coagulation issues, this is something to watch for.

 

[mikey3000]

Post #857.

Last week Andrew Cuomo stated that new evidence shows that Covid19 first appeared in Santa Clarita, California in November, and that it is the strain from Europe, not Wuhan. This makes sense as my fella and I were in Italy in October and had a stop over in London. Looking back, weeks after we got home, both of us were sick with flu like symptoms all throughout the holidays. Nothing too severe but sick enough to keep us in bed throughout the holidays. I even posted about it on here before Covid19 was even a word.

 

[KaraBulut]

9-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 3,954,897 (up from 3,864,696 / 2.3%) - *‬*90,201 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 275,188 (up from 270,020) - **5,168 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,283,929 cases (up from 1,256,972 / 2.1% yesterday), ‬**26,957 new cases
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 4,787 (17.8%), outside NJ/NY - 22,149 (82.2%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 77,180 deaths, 1,510 deaths yesterday , 29% of the world's new deaths were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 779 (34.8%), outside NJ/NY - 1,460 (65.2%)
- Testing: - 8,408,788 tests (up from 8,105,513 yesterday, +303,275 tests), 2.5% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 330,407 (up from 327,469 / +0.9%)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,121,543 (up from 1,089,916 / +31,627)- 29.4% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 176,086 (up from 174,709 / +1,377), hospitalized 43,913
- Deaths reported in NYC - 19,702 (up from 19,540 / +162), confirmed 14,389, suspected 5,313

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,283,929 (up from 1,256,972 / 2.1%) - 77,180 deaths
• Italy - 217,185 (up from 215,858 / 0.6%) - 30,201 deaths / 99,023 recovered
• UK - 212,629 (up from 207,977 / 2.2%) - 31,316 deaths
• Russia - 198,676 (up from 187,859 / 5.8%) - 1,827 deaths
• France - 176,202 (down from 174,918 / 0.7%) - 26,233 deaths / 55,892 recovered
• Brazil - 146,894 (up from 136,519 / 7.6%) - 10,017 deaths
• Turkey - 135,569 (up from 133,721 / 1.4%) - 3,689 deaths / 86,396 recovered
• Canada - 67,674 (up from 66,201 / 2.2%) - 4,697 deaths
• India - 59,765 (up from 56,516 / 5.7%) - 1,990 deaths
• Netherlands - 42,581 (up from 42,292 / 0.7%) - 5,449 deaths
• Mexico - 31,522 (up from 29,616 / 6.4%) - 3,160 deaths
• Sweden - 25,265 (up from 24,623 / 2.6%) - 3,220 deaths
• Japan - 15,575 (up from 15,477 / 0.6%) - 490 deaths

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain - 222,857 (up from 221,447 / 0.6%) - 26,299 deaths / 131,148 recovered
• Germany - 170,588 (up from 169,430 / 0.7%) - 7,510 deaths / 143,300 recovered
• Iran - 106,220 (up from 104,691 / 1.5%) - 6,589 deaths / 85,064 recovered
• China - 83,976 (up from 83,976 / 0%) - 4,637 deaths / 79,056 recovered
• Belgium - 52,596 (up from 52,011 / 1.1%) - 8,581 deaths / 13,411 recovered
• Switzerland - 30,251 (up from 30,207 / 0.1%) - 1,830 deaths / 26,100 recovered
• Ireland - 22,541 (up from 22,385 / 0.7%) - 1,429 deaths / 17,110 recovered
• South Korea - 10,840 (up from 10,822 / 0.2%) - 256 deaths / 9,568 recovered
• Australia - 6,929 (up from 6,914 / 0.2%) - 97 deaths / 6,134 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,492 (down from 1,490 / 0.1%) - 21 deaths / 1,368 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 330,407 (up from 327,469 / 0.9%) - 26,243 deaths
• New Jersey - 135,840 (up from 133,991 / 1.4%) - 8,960 deaths
• Massachusetts - 75,333 (up from 73,721 / 2.2%) - 4,702 deaths
• Illinois - 73,760 (up from 70,871 / 4.2%) - 3,241 deaths
• California - 63,779 (up from 62,360 / 2.3%) - 2,613 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 57,371 (up from 55,956 / 2.5%) - 3,715 deaths
• Michigan - 46,386 (up from 45,745 / 1.4%) - 4,399 deaths
• Florida - 39,199 (up from 38,828 / 1.0%) - 1,669 deaths
• Texas - 37,236 (up from 36,047 / 3.3%) - 1,024 deaths
• Connecticut - 32,411 (up from 31,784 / 2.0%) - 2,874 deaths
• Georgia - 32,181 (up from 31,603 / 1.9%) - 1,400 deaths
• Louisiana - 30,855 (up from 30,652 / 0.7%) - 2,227 deaths
• Maryland - 30,485 (up from 29,374 / 3.9%) - 1,560 deaths
• Indiana - 23,146 (up from 22,503 / 2.9%) - 1,447 deaths
• Ohio - 23,016 (up from 22,131 / 4.0%) - 1,306 deaths
• Virginia - 22,342 (up from 21,570 / 3.6%) - 812 deaths
• Colorado - 18,827 (up from 18,370 / 2.6%) - 960 deaths
• Washington - 16,388 (up from 16,231 / 1.0%) - 905 deaths
• Tennessee - 14,441 (up from 14,096 / 2.4%) - 242 deaths
• Iowa - 11,457 (up from 11,059 / 3.8%) - 243 deaths
• Minnesota - 10,088 (up from 9,365 / 8.4%) - 534 deaths
• Wisconsin - 9,590 (up from 9,215 / 4.1%) - 384 deaths
• Nebraska - 7,818 (up from 7,066 / 11.2%) - 90 deaths
• Kansas - 6,667 (up from 6,332 / 5.6%) - 168 deaths
• South Dakota - 3,145 (up from 2,906 / 8.2%) - 31 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 6,098 (up from 6,017 / 1.3%) - 115 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,315 (up from 2,288 / 1.2%) - 127 deaths
• Manitoba - 284 (up from 283 / 0.4%) - 7 deaths
• New Brunswick - 120 (unchanged from 120 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 261 (unchanged from 261 / 0%) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 1,008 (up from 1,007 / 0.1%) - 46 deaths
• Ontario - 20,826 (up from 20,388 / 2.1%) - 1,540 deaths
• Quebec - 36,161 (up from 35,249 / 2.6%) - 2,725 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 544 (up from 531 / 2.4%) - 6 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[KaraBulut]

Last week Andrew Cuomo stated that new evidence shows that Covid19 first appeared in Santa Clarita, California in November, and that it is the strain from Europe, not Wuhan. This makes sense as my fella and I were in Italy in October and had a stop over in London. Looking back, weeks after we got home, both of us were sick with flu like symptoms all throughout the holidays. Nothing too severe but sick enough to keep us in bed throughout the holidays. I even posted about it on here before Covid19 was even a word.

According to our current knowledge, the first confirmed cases in the US were in mid-January in Washington State in someone who had traveled from Wuhan.

The first community-acquired cases were later discovered in Santa Clara, California (south Bay Area) in early February from autopsy specimens.

Yesterday, Gov Newsom mentioned something about a first case in Solano County, California (north Bay Area) but didn't mention the specific date or other details aside from it being associated with a nail salon.

Coronavirus may have spread undetected for weeks in Washington state, which reported first two deaths in U.S. [WaPos 1-Mar-2020]

The coronavirus has been circulating undetected and has possibly infected scores of people over the past six weeks in Washington state, according to a genetic analysis of virus samples that has sobering implications for the entire country amid heightening anxiety about the likely spread of the disease.

The researchers conducted genetic sequencing of two virus samples. One is from a patient who traveled from China to Snohomish County in mid-January and was the first person diagnosed with the disease in the United States. The other came from a recently diagnosed patient in the same county, a high school student with no travel-related or other known exposure to the coronavirus. The two samples look almost identical genetically, said Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle who announced the results of the research on Twitter late Saturday night.

Autopsies find first U.S. coronavirus death occurred in early February, weeks earlier than previously thought [WaPo 22-Apr-2020]

At least two people who died in early and mid-February had contracted the novel coronavirus, health officials in California said Tuesday, signaling the virus may have spread — and been fatal — in the United States weeks earlier than previously thought.

Tissue samples taken during autopsies of two people who died at home in Santa Clara County, Calif., tested positive for the virus, local health officials said in a statement. The victims died on Feb. 6 and Feb. 17, respectively.

First case of COVID-19 community spread in California occurred in a nail salon, Newsom says [ABC7 7-May-2020]

The first case of community spread in California is believed to have occurred in Solano County in February.

Was That Cold I Had in November or December Coronavirus? [Daily Beast]

It’s a comforting thought at a time of mass death from an historic and unpredictable pandemic: What if I had it already—maybe even that time I felt sick a few months ago?

After all, while antibody testing is only now being rolled out in any significant numbers—and its reliability remains in doubt—the hope is that having recovered from the illness might offer some measure of immunity to reinfection. And the documented prevalence of so-called “silent”—or asymptomatic—spreaders suggests many Americans have unknowingly been infected.

But public health experts told The Daily Beast that even if the virus was spreading in the United States earlier than the first confirmed case in Washington in mid-January, anyone hoping they had it as far back as November or December is likely to be disappointed.

“There is zero probability [SARS-CoV-2] was circulating in fall 2019,” tweeted Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center who has been tracking the virus’s genetic code as it has spread through the country...

To be clear, a study reported by The New York Times tracking viral mutations found that most coronavirus cases in the U.S. came via Europe, not directly from China—and that the virus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case there. The Washington Post also reported on March 1 that researchers, including Bedford, had conducted genetic sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington state and found that the coronavirus had been circulating in the community for longer than originally believed.

 

[KaraBulut]

10-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 4,051,431 (up from 3,954,897 / 2.4%) - *‬*96,534 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 279,734 (up from 275,188) - **4,546 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,309,698 cases (up from 1,283,929 / 2.1% yesterday), ‬**26,957 new cases 27.9% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 4,272 (16.7%), outside NJ/NY - 21,361 (83.3%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 78,799 deaths, 1,619 deaths yesterday , 35.6% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 252 (16.7%), outside NJ/NY - 1,257 (83.3%)
- Testing: - 8,709,630 tests (up from 8,408,788 yesterday, +300,842 tests), 2.6% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 333,122 (up from 330,407 / +2,715)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,153,768 (up from 1,121,543 / +32,225)- 28.8% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 177,481 (up from 176,086 / +1,395), hospitalized 44,256
- Deaths reported in NYC - 19,795 (up from 19,702 / +93), confirmed 14,482, suspected 5,313

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,309,698 (up from 1,283,929 / 2.0%) - 78,799 deaths
• Italy - 218,268 (up from 217,185 / 0.5%) - 30,395 deaths / 103,031 recovered
• UK - 216,526 (up from 212,629 / 1.8%) - 31,662 deaths
• Russia - 209,688 (up from 198,676 / 5.5%) - 1,915 deaths
• France - 176,782 (down from 176,202 / 0.3%) - 26,313 deaths / 56,148 recovered
• Brazil - 156,061 (up from 146,894 / 6.2%) - 10,656 deaths
• Turkey - 137,115 (up from 135,569 / 1.1%) - 3,739 deaths / 89,480 recovered
• Canada - 68,924 (up from 67,674 / 1.8%) - 4,824 deaths
• India - 64,139 (up from 59,765 / 7.3%) - 2,114 deaths
• Netherlands - 42,826 (up from 42,581 / 0.6%) - 5,459 deaths / 149 recovered
• Mexico - 33,460 (up from 31,522 / 4.2%) - 3,353 deaths
• Sweden - 26,322 (up from 25,265 / 4.2%) - 3,225 deaths
• Japan - 15,663 (up from 15,575 / 0.6%) - 607 deaths

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain - 223,578 (up from 222,857 / 0.3%) - 26,478 deaths / 133,952 recovered
• Germany - 171,324 (up from 170,588 / 0.4%) - 7,549 deaths / 144,400 recovered
• Iran - 107,603 (up from 106,220 / 1.3%) - 6,640 deaths / 86,143 recovered
• China - 83,994 (up from 83,976 / 0.0%) - 4,637 deaths / 79,144 recovered
• Belgium - 53,081 (up from 52,596 / 0.9%) - 8,656 deaths / 13,642 recovered
• Switzerland - 30,305 (up from 30,251 / 0.2%) - 1,830 deaths / 26,400 recovered
• Ireland - 22,760 (up from 22,541 / 1.0%) - 1,446 deaths / 17,110 recovered
• South Korea - 10,874 (up from 10,840 / 0.3%) - 256 deaths / 9,610 recovered
• Australia - 6,941 (up from 6,929 / 0.2%) - 97 deaths / 6,163 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,494 (down from 1,492 / 0.1%) - 21 deaths / 1,371 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 333,122 (up from 330,407 / 0.8%) - 26,612 deaths
• New Jersey - 137,397 (up from 135,840 / 1.1%) - 9,116 deaths
• Massachusetts - 76,743 (up from 75,333 / 1.9%) - 4,840 deaths
• Illinois - 76,085 (up from 73,760 / 3.2%) - 3,349 deaths
• California - 66,558 (up from 63,779 / 4.4%) - 2,687 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 58,560 (up from 57,371 / 2.1%) - 3,779 deaths
• Michigan - 46,815 (up from 46,386 / 0.9%) - 4,530 deaths
• Florida - 40,001 (up from 39,199 / 2.0%) - 1,715 deaths
• Texas - 38,394 (up from 37,236 / 3.1%) - 1,066 deaths
• Connecticut - 32,984 (up from 32,411 / 1.8%) - 2,932 deaths
• Georgia - 32,588 (up from 32,181 / 1.3%) - 1,403 deaths
• Louisiana - 31,417 (up from 30,855 / 1.8%) - 2,267 deaths
• Maryland - 31,534 (up from 30,485 / 3.4%) - 1,614 deaths
• Indiana - 23,732 (up from 23,146 / 2.5%) - 1,490 deaths
• Ohio - 23,697 (up from 23,016 / 3.0%) - 1,331 deaths
• Virginia - 23,196 (up from 22,342 / 3.8%) - 827 deaths
• Colorado - 19,375 (up from 18,827 / 2.9%) - 967 deaths
• Washington - 16,674 (up from 16,388 / 1.7%) - 921 deaths
• Tennessee - 14,768 (up from 14,441 / 2.3%) - 242 deaths
• Iowa - 11,671 (up from 11,457 / 1.9%) - 252 deaths
• Arizona - 10,960 (up from 10,526 / 4.1%) - 532 deaths
• Minnesota - 10,790 (up from 10,088 / 7.0%) - 558 deaths
• Wisconsin - 9,939 (up from 9,590 / 3.6%) - 398 deaths
• Nebraska - 8,093 (up from 7,818 / 3.5%) - 90 deaths
• Kansas - 6,829 (up from 6,667 / 2.4%) - 174 deaths
• Nevada - 6,171 (up from 5,919 / 4.3%) - 313 deaths
• South Dakota - 3,393 (up from 3,145 / 7.9%) - 34 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 6,157 (up from 6,098 / 1.0%) - 116 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,330 (up from 2,315 / 0.6%) - 129 deaths
• Manitoba - 284 (unchanged from 284 / 0%) - 7 deaths
• New Brunswick - 120 (unchanged from 120 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 261 (unchanged from 261 / 0%) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 1,011 (up from 1,008 / 0.3%) - 47 deaths
• Ontario - 21,154 (up from 20,826 / 1.6%) - 1,599 deaths
• Quebec - 36,997 (up from 36,161 / 2.3%) - 2,786 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 553 (up from 544 / 1.7%) - 6 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[belamyi]

So is the 200,000-dead mark still valid as an acceptable non-plus-ultra for Trump and the country in general, or that is very old news?

 

[KaraBulut]

So is the 200,000-dead mark still valid as an acceptable non-plus-ultra for Trump and the country in general, or that is very old news?

Because we're not hearing from Birx, Fauci and the scientists at the CDC, the public doesn't really understand how models work and how the numbers change based upon their behavior. Cuomo has done a good job with this- tying behavior to "flattening the curve" and connecting it to his elderly mother and how New Yorkers staying home protects the elderly.

• At the beginning of this in March, the models were saying 200,000 deaths with no social distancing, no quarantine, etc.
• Then the stay-at-home was issued and models were recalculated which lowered the expected deaths down to 70,000 by August. This included the assumption that measures would remain in place for 45-60 days or until there were 14 consecutive days of decreasing cases. Trump told Americans that we could have 50,000 deaths by August (the US hit 50,000 on 24-Apr).
• Then this "reopen" theme started getting pushed by Fox and the right wing sites and the for a 30-45 days instead of the recommended 45-60 days. States started removing restrictions without considering the 14 day decrease requirement. Trump said that we could have 100,000 deaths (the exact quote was "“We’re going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people"). A reported was leaked from the White House predicted 200,000 deaths by August (well above the 100,000 death prediction from Trump).
• The latest expectation is that we will go from the current 25,000 new cases per day to between 175,000 to 200,000 new cases per day. We will go from the 124,000 deaths that we had on 30-Apr to an expectation of 200,000 deaths by August- running about 3,000 deaths per day. The CDC website has removed forecasts that were too pessimistic or optimistic but the expectation is that we will hit 100,000 deaths before 1-Jun-2020.

There's a phenomenon in human nature where we aren't able to process numeric data and statistics once they exceed our expectations. That's where we are. The models are saying 200,000 but either Americans are so stunned by that number that they can't comprehend over 3,000 people dying daily or they are devolving into conspiracy theories that the numbers aren't the numbers and there's some world-wide conspiracy where China and Bill Gates are doing population control.

 

[Telstra]

an expert said fighting corona-virus is like running a marathon of 42 kilometers.
And we only done barely 1 kilometer into the race .... so there are 41 kilometers to go folks.

 

[rareboy]

A bit of a wrap-up to date on how complex and variable this virus is.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/he...navirus-attacks-the-body/ar-BB13SoPn?ocid=sf2

As suspected, there is a new level of concern for paediatric patients....while still rare...the worry is that the strain of virus that is presenting in this way may mean that it isn't just the old, fat, elderly and/or immunocompromised that may be the fodder for the next wave.

 

[KaraBulut]

11-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 4,126,154 (up from 4,051,431 / 1.8%) - *‬*74,723 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 283,120 (up from 279,734) - **3,386 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,329,885 cases (up from 1,309,698 / 1.5% yesterday), ‬**20,187 new cases, 27% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 3,630 (17.8%), outside NJ/NY - 16,714 (82.2%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 79,606 deaths, 807 deaths yesterday , 23.8% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 169 (22.9%), outside NJ/NY - 568 (77.1%)
- Testing: - 8,987,524 tests (up from 8,709,630 yesterday, +277,894 tests), 2.7% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 335,395 (up from 333,122 / +2,273)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,182,998 (up from 1,153,768 / +29,230)- 28.3% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 178,766 (up from 177,481 / +1,285), hospitalized 44,812
- Deaths reported in NYC - 19,931 (up from 19,795 / +136), confirmed 14,753, suspected 5,178

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,329,885 (up from 1,309,698 / 1.5%) - 79,606 deaths
• Italy - 219,070 (up from 218,268 / 0.4%) - 30,560 deaths / 105,186 recovered
• UK - 224,326 (up from 216,526 / 3.6%) - 32,140 deaths
• Russia - 221,344 (up from 209,688 / 5.6%) - 2,009 deaths
• France - 177,094 (down from 176,782 / 0.2%) - 26,383 deaths / 56,327 recovered
• Brazil - 163,510 (up from 156,061 / 4.8%) - 11,207 deaths
• Turkey - 138,657 (up from 137,115 / 1.1%) - 3,786 deaths / 92,691 recovered
• Canada - 70,091 (up from 68,924 / 1.7%) - 4,991 deaths
• India - 67,724 (up from 64,139 / 5.6%) - 2,223 deaths
• Netherlands - 42,987 (up from 42,826 / 0.4%) - 5,475 deaths / 149 recovered
• Mexico - 35,022 (up from 33,460 / 4.7%) - 3,465 deaths
• Sweden - 26,670 (up from 26,322 / 1.3%) - 3,256 deaths
• Japan - 15,777 (up from 15,663 / 0.7%) - 624 deaths / 8,127 recovered

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain - 224,350 (up from 223,578 / 0.3%) - 26,621 deaths / 136,166 recovered
• Germany - 171,999 (up from 171,324 / 0.4%) - 7,569 deaths / 145,600 recovered
• Iran - 109,286 (up from 107,603 / 1.6%) - 6,685 deaths / 87,422 recovered
• China - 84,010 (up from 83,994 / 0%) - 4,637 deaths / 79,171 recovered
• Belgium - 53,449 (up from 53,081 / 0.7%) - 8,707 deaths / 13,697 recovered
• Switzerland - 30,344 (up from 30,305 / 0.1%) - 1,834 deaths / 26,600 recovered
• Ireland - 22,996 (up from 22,760 / 1.0%) - 1,458 deaths / 17,110 recovered
• South Korea - 10,909 (up from 10,874 / 0.3%) - 256 deaths / 9,632 recovered
• Australia - 6,948 (up from 6,941 / 0.1%) - 97 deaths / 6,179 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,497 (down from 1,494 / 0.2%) - 21 deaths / 1,386 recovered

Individual States with high case counts:

• New York - 335,395 (up from 333,122 / 0.7%) - 26,641 deaths
• New Jersey - 138,754 (up from 137,397 / 1.0%) - 9,256 deaths
• Massachusetts - 77,793 (up from 76,743 / 1.4%) - 4,979 deaths
• Illinois - 77,741 (up from 76,085 / 2.2%) - 3,406 deaths
• California - 67,875 (up from 66,558 / 2.0%) - 2,718 deaths
• Pennsylvania - 59,939 (up from 58,560 / 2.4%) - 3,806 deaths
• Michigan - 47,182 (up from 46,815 / 0.8%) - 4,555 deaths
• Florida - 40,596 (up from 40,001 / 1.5%) - 1,721 deaths
• Texas - 39,258 (up from 38,394 / 2.3%) - 1,094 deaths
• Connecticut - 33,554 (up from 32,984 / 1.7%) - 2,967 deaths
• Georgia - 33,837 (up from 32,588 / 3.8%) - 1,406 deaths
• Louisiana - 31,600 (up from 31,417 / 0.6%) - 2,286 deaths
• Maryland - 32,587 (up from 31,534 / 3.3%) - 1,644 deaths
• Indiana - 24,126 (up from 23,732 / 1.7%) - 1,508 deaths
• Ohio - 24,081 (up from 23,697 / 1.6%) - 1,341 deaths
• Virginia - 24,081 (up from 23,196 / 3.8%) - 839 deaths
• Colorado - 19,703 (up from 19,375 / 1.7%) - 971 deaths
• Washington - 16,891 (up from 16,674 / 1.3%) - 931 deaths
• Tennessee - 14,985 (up from 14,768 / 1.5%) - 243 deaths
• Iowa - 11,959 (up from 11,671 / 2.5%) - 265 deaths
• Minnesota - 11,271 (up from 10,790 / 4.5%) - 578 deaths
• Arizona - 11,127 (up from 10,960 / 1.5%) - 536 deaths
• Wisconsin - 10,219 (up from 9,939 / 2.8%) - 400 deaths
• Nebraska - 8,171 (up from 8,093 / 1.0%) - 90 deaths
• Kansas - 6,954 (up from 6,829 / 1.8%) - 174 deaths
• Nevada - 6,120 (down from 6,171 / 1.0%) - 310 deaths
• South Dakota - 3,517 (up from 3,393 / 3.7%) - 34 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 6,253 (up from 6,157 / 1.6%) - 117 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,330 (unchanged from 2,330 / 0%) - 129 deaths (BC doesn't update on Sunday)
• Manitoba - 287 (unchanged from 284 / 1.1%) - 7 deaths
• New Brunswick - 120 (unchanged from 120 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 261 (unchanged from 261 / 0%) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 1,018 (up from 1,011 / 0.7%) - 47 deaths
• Ontario - 21,469 (up from 21,154 / 1.5%) - 1,669 deaths
• Quebec - 37,732 (up from 36,997 / 2.0%) - 2,928 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 564 (up from 553 / 2.0%) - 6 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[rareboy]

Pretty good evidence of the extent that Moscow is under-reporting COVID deaths.

And they all didn't die falling out of windows.

Data released by Moscow’s city government on Friday shows that the number of overall registered deaths in the Russian capital in April exceeded the five-year average for the same period by more than 1,700. That total is far higher than the official Covid-19 death count of 642 — an indication of significant underreporting by the authorities.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/11/...5yzQgMlKVvoHkDETlpiIKKvM-CrSnWWthqtrUfByi5qc4

 

[rareboy]

It appears that men's blood has more of enzyme that helps COVID-19 infect cells....

https://news.trust.org/item/2020051...lbCUFBxXBsph27zsdlMoh8TDyMEnh_I8sy7n4h7dRcBQE


Fortunately, it doesn't seem that ACE inhibitors increase the risk.

 

[KaraBulut]

Germany, China and South Korea have begun to relax restrictions. All three are seeing cluster outbreaks of new COVID-19 cases.

South Korea has a unique problem with contact tracing one of the clusters- it is among a group of gay men.

Tracing South Korea’s latest virus outbreak shoves LGBTQ community into unwelcome spotlight [WaPo]

South Korea is in a race to contain a new coronavirus outbreak in a Seoul party district, prompting a return of social distancing just as the country was easing restrictions. Tracing who was there, however, runs up against the feelings of a gay community that prefers anonymity.

The Asian nation reported more than 30 new infections on Monday for the second day in a row, the biggest daily jumps in a month.

At least 79 cases have been linked to nightclubs and bars that the cluster’s suspected “patient zero” visited the previous weekend, according to South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The 29-year-old patient went barhopping across Seoul’s trendy Itaewon neighborhood days before receiving a covid-19 diagnosis Wednesday. His case was the first new local infection in four days, during which only a handful of imported cases were reported...

South Korea’s contact tracing officers tracked down detailed pre-quarantine movements of the 29-year-old man and published online the nightlife locations he visited. Those places have been identified as gay bars and clubs by South Korean media outlets including Kookmin Ilbo, a major daily newspaper with links to an evangelical church.

 

[KaraBulut]

12-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 4,194,326 (up from 4,126,154 / 1.7%) - *‬*68,172 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 286,615 (up from 283,120) - **3,495 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,347,936 cases (up from 1,329,885 / 1.4% yesterday), ‬**18,051 new cases, 26.5% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 3,112 (17.2%), outside NJ/NY - 14,939 (82.8%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 80,684 deaths, +1,078 deaths yesterday , 30.8% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 431 (37.4%), outside NJ/NY - 722 (62.6%)
- Testing: - 9,382,235 tests (up from 8,987,524 yesterday, + tests), 2.8% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 337,055 (up from 335,395 / +1,660)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,204,650 (up from 1,182,998 / +21,652)- 28% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 183,662 (up from 178,766 / +4,896), hospitalized 48,706
- Deaths reported in NYC - 20,056 (up from 19,931 / +125), confirmed 14,928, suspected 5,128

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,347,936 (up from 1,329,885 / 1.4%) - 80,684 deaths
• Russia - 232,243 (up from 221,344 / 4.9%) - 2,116 deaths
• UK - 227,735 (up from 224,326 / 1.5%) - 32,768 deaths
• Italy - 219,814 (up from 219,070 / 0.3%) - 30,739 deaths / 106,587 recovered
• France - 177,547 (down from 177,094 / 0.3%) - 26,646 deaths / 56,835 recovered
• Brazil - 169,594 (up from 163,510 / 3.7%) - 11,653 deaths
• India - 71,339 (up from 67,724 / 5.3%) - 2,310 deaths
• Canada - 71,264 (up from 70,091 / 1.7%) - 5,115 deaths / 5,115 recovered
• Netherlands - 43,183 (up from 42,987 / 0.5%) - 5,529 deaths / 149 recovered
• Mexico - 36,327 (up from 35,022 / 3.7%) - 3,573 deaths
• Sweden - 27,272 (up from 26,670 / 2.3%) - 3,313 deaths
• Japan - 15,847 (up from 15,777 / 0.4%) - 633 deaths / 633 recovered

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain - 227,436 (up from 224,350 / 1.4%) - 26,744 deaths / 137,139 recovered
• Germany - 172,576 (up from 171,999 / 0.3%) - 7,661 deaths / 147,200 recovered
• Iran - 109,286 (up from 109,286 / 1.4%) - 6,733 deaths / 88,357 recovered
• China - 84,011 (up from 84,010 / 0%) - 4,637 deaths / 79,208 recovered
• Turkey - 139,771 (up from 138,657 / 0.8%) - 3,841 deaths / 95,780 recovered
• Belgium - 53,779 (up from 53,449 / 0.6%) - 8,761 deaths / 13,732 recovered
• Switzerland - 30,380 (up from 30,344 / 0.1%) - 1,845 deaths / 26,800 recovered
• Ireland - 23,135 (up from 22,996 / 0.6%) - 1,467 deaths / 17,110 recovered
• South Korea - 10,936 (up from 10,909 / 0.2%) - 258 deaths / 9,670 recovered
• Australia - 6,966 (up from 6,948 / 0.3%) - 97 deaths / 6,231 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,497 (unchanged from 1,497 / 0%) - 21 deaths / 1,398 recovered

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 6,300 (up from 6,253 / 0.8%) - 117 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,353 (up from 2,330 / 1.0%) - 130 deaths
• Manitoba - 289 (up from 287 / 0.7%) - 7 deaths
• New Brunswick - 120 (unchanged from 120 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 261 (unchanged from 261 / 0%) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 1,019 (up from 1,018 / 0.1%) - 48 deaths
• Ontario - 21,817 (up from 21,469 / 1.6%) - 1,669 deaths
• Quebec - 38,480 (up from 37,732 / 2.0%) - 3,013 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 568 (up from 564 / 0.7%) - 6 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[zoltanspawn]

Wesley Pegden (and Maria Chikina, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine) from the Department of Mathematical Sciences at Carnegie Mellon:

A Call to Honesty in Pandemic Modeling

Regardless of which strategies various governments will eventually turn to in the fight against COVID-19, their success will hinge in large part on the cooperation of the public — maintaining effective suppression on a timescale of years, for example, would require extraordinary levels compliance from citizens. The public should not be misled by presenting false stories of hope to motivate behavior in the short-term. Public health depends on public trust. If we claim now that our models show that 2 months of mitigations will cut deaths by 90%, why will anyone believe us 2 months from now when the story has to change?

 

[belamyi]

^ Because that is how it has always worked?


They are used to people's minds living in a loop, but you can only count on that when people are hypnotized.

You can preach the benefits of an economic model that keeps failing as long as it is part of the beliefs of people, like a religion, but here we are dealing with the more daily, down-to-earth matter of things like, literally, when and how to scratch your nose.

 

[KaraBulut]

Notable in today's statistics on total cases- Russia now has overtaken Spain, France and Italy in the number of cases. UK in position #3 is only 5,000 cases less than Russia. Brazil and India are moving up the list quickly.

1. US - 1,347,936
2. Russia - 232,243
3. UK - 227,735
4. Italy - 219,814
5. France - 177,547
6. Brazil - 169,594
7. India - 71,339
8. Canada - 71,264