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On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

rareboy said:
...DeSantis and Trump should note that it isn't testing that is filling the hospital beds.

It is sick people.
Click to expand...

Agreed.

The governor of Texas has been saying, "We have plenty of hospital beds". That may be true of the entire State, but if you do a read of some of the local press in Houston, they are reporting a 97% occupancy on ICU beds. Houston is talking about opening a field hospital in their sports arena.

Here's the trending on Texas' statewide number of COVID-19 patients in their hospitals- in a week, their hospitalizations have increased a whopping 57%.

17-Jun - 2,793
18-Jun - 2,947
19-Jun - 3,148
20-Jun - 3,247
21-Jun - 3,409
22-Jun - 3,711
23-Jun - 4,092
24-Jun - 4,389

Florida won't release their hospitalization numbers, so you can only get them on a city-by-city and county-by-county basis by reading articles in the local press in Miami, Orlando, etc. The public health system in Miami-Dade County is reporting a 27% positivity rate and Jackson Health is reporting a 108% increase in COVID-19 patients in the past 2 weeks.


One other number that is worrying: if a locality is increasing their testing, it is true that the gross number of cases will appear to increase however the percentage of positives will decrease.

An example: If a population of 1,000,000 has 10,000 cases, their infection rate is 1%. If we were to test the 30,000 people who show up saying they feel sick, then we might show 10,000 positives in the 30,000 people we test (a 33.3% positive rate). However, if we mass test all 1 million people, the highest infection rate we would ever see is 1% because there are only 10,000 people who are infected.

Here's the positive rate that Texas has reported in the past 7 days:
17-Jun - 6.94%
18-Jun - 7.50%
19-Jun - 8.53%
20-Jun - 8.94%
21-Jun - 8.80%
22-Jun - 9.51%
23-Jun - 9.76%
24-Jun - 10.42%

Texas' positivity rate is increasing.

What does this tell us?
  • Texas is not testing enough people. They are likely to be testing only people who are sick, so they are not identifying their asymptomatic carriers in the State.
  • Texas' infections are increasing. It is mathematically impossible to go from 7.5% to 10.42% positivity in a week unless your cases in the population are increasing exponentially.

Texas is testing between 30,000 to 50,000 people per day. That's pitiful for a state with 29 million people.
 
purina said:
Why does France have two lines?
Click to expand...

Good question. There does appear to be an extra line without a label next to France? My guess is that is Spain.
 
rareboy said:
Kara, you note the LTC cases.

Today we learn that to our eternal shame, Canada's long term care death toll was twice that of other developed countries.
Click to expand...

Were these deaths in March when NY and NJ were also hitting LTC? Or were the deaths distributed across the March-June timeframe?

On another topic, I have been surprised to see Quebec's daily case count dropping from >100 to the 50-60 range now. Surprisingly, Ontario seems to be consistently running ~200 per day even though all the other provinces have very low case increases.
 
25-Jun-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 9,478,266 (up from 9,295,365 / 2.0%) - *‬*182,901 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 483,613 (up from 478,289) - **5,324 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 2,381,369 cases (up from 2,348,956 / 3.1% yesterday), ‬**32,413 new cases, 17.7% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 739 (2.3%), outside NJ/NY - 31,674 (97.7%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 122,071 deaths, 792 deaths yesterday , 14.9% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 107 (12.2%), outside NJ/NY - 770 (87.8%)
- Testing: - 28,567,355 tests (up from 28,065,065 yesterday, +502,290 tests), 8.7% of the US population has been tested, 12.0% positive rate

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):
  • US: 2,381,369 (up from 2,348,956 / +32,413 / 1.4%) - 122,071 deaths (+792)
  • Brazil: 1,188,631 (up from 1,145,906 / +42,725 / 3.7%) - 53,830 deaths (+1,185)
  • Russia: 613,148 (up from 606,043 / +7,105 / 1.2%) - 8,594 deaths (+91)
  • India: 473,105 (up from 456,183 / +16,922 / 3.7%) - 14,894 deaths (+418)
  • UK : 308,337 (up from 307,682 / +655 / 0.2%) - 43,165 deaths (+154)
  • Iran : 215,096 (up from 212,501 / +2,595 / 1.2%) - 10,130 deaths (+134)
  • Mexico: 196,847 (up from 191,410 / +5,437 / 2.8%) - 24,324 deaths (+947)
  • Turkey: 191,657 (up from 190,165 / +1,492 / 0.8%) - 5,025 deaths (+24)
  • Sweden: 63,890 (up from 62,324 / +1,566 / 2.5%) - 5,230 deaths (+21)
Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

  • *]Spain : 247,486 (up from 246,752 / +734 / 0.3%) - 28,330 deaths (+5)
  • Italy : 239,410 (up from 238,833 / +577 / 0.2%) - 34,644 deaths (-31)
  • France : 197,885 (up from 197,804 / +81 / 0.0%) - 29,734 deaths (+11)
  • Germany : 193,371 (up from 192,871 / +500 / 0.3%) - 8,937 deaths (+11)
  • Canada : 104,087 (up from 103,767 / +320 / 0.3%) - 8,544 deaths (+32)
  • China: 84,673 (up from 84,655 / +18 / 0.0%) - 4,640 deaths (+0)
  • Belgium: 61,007 (up from 60,898 / +109 / 0.2%) - 9,726 deaths (+4)
  • Netherlands : 50,122 (up from 50,012 / +110 / 0.2%) - 6,119 deaths (+3)
  • Switzerland : 31,428 (up from 31,376 / +52 / 0.2%) - 1,958 deaths (+0)
  • Ireland: 25,396 (up from 25,391 / +5 / 0.0%) - 1,726 deaths (+6)
  • Japan: 18,056 (up from 17,963 / +93 / 0.5%) - 971 deaths (+4)
  • South Korea : 12,563 (up from 12,535 / +28 / 0.2%) - 282 deaths (+1)
  • Australia : 7,558 (up from 7,521 / +37 / 0.5%) - 104 deaths (+1)
  • New Zealand: 1,519 (up from 1,516 / +3 / 0.2%) - 22 deaths (+0)
 
KaraBulut said:
Were these deaths in March when NY and NJ were also hitting LTC? Or were the deaths distributed across the March-June timeframe?

On another topic, I have been surprised to see Quebec's daily case count dropping from >100 to the 50-60 range now. Surprisingly, Ontario seems to be consistently running ~200 per day even though all the other provinces have very low case increases.
Click to expand...

Our Ontario case count is now driven by expanded testing...but the hot spots have been the agricultural areas with foreign guest workers for the past days...and identifying cases in urban centres that may have been going undetected.

The province has sent in testing teams to the agricultural centres in order to test all workers now and is working with farmers to get this under control. It is the reason why Windsor Essex hasn't been able to move to Pahse 2 re-opening.
 
KaraBulut said:
Were these deaths in March when NY and NJ were also hitting LTC? Or were the deaths distributed across the March-June timeframe?

On another topic, I have been surprised to see Quebec's daily case count dropping from >100 to the 50-60 range now. Surprisingly, Ontario seems to be consistently running ~200 per day even though all the other provinces have very low case increases.
Click to expand...

Many of these were early deaths but once there were large numbers of infections....the damage was done.

One of the reasons that the numbers dropped dramatically in Quebec and Ontario LTC's is the result of sending in the military medical forces to provide support.

And of course, the report that the military support teams issued was so damning that it will likely result in major changes across Canada in terms of nursing home care.
 
rareboy said:
Our Ontario case count is now driven by expanded testing...but the hot spots have been the agricultural areas with foreign guest workers for the past days...and identifying cases in urban centres that may have been going undetected.
Click to expand...
That's a shame- I could have sworn I read an article in May touting the decreasing positivity rate in Ontario as they increased testing. At that time, the worry was Montreal and Quebec.

rareboy said:
The province has sent in testing teams to the agricultural centres in order to test all workers now and is working with farmers to get this under control. It is the reason why Windsor Essex hasn't been able to move to Pahse 2 re-opening.
Click to expand...
Windsor, as in home of the "Windsor Ballet"? ;)
 
rareboy said:
Fuck.

Florida has reported more than 9000 new cases in one day.
Click to expand...

And in the race for the bottom between Florida, Texas, Mississippi and Arizona, Texas' positivity rate on antigen testing went from 6.6% on 15-June to a whopping 11.76% yesterday. 8,900 new cases for today in Texas.

I just saw a report that Gov Abbott has finally relented and is closing the bars and reducing restaurant dine-in capacity from 75% to 50%. Still no mandatory masks or stay-at-home order at the State level, although he is allowing local businesses to put up signs saying, "No mask, no service".

He's painted himself in a corner and it's about to get really ugly in Texas emergency rooms.


Here's the top 10 from yesterday's new case numbers:
Texas - 6,426
California - 5,189
Florida - 5,004
Arizona - 3,091
Georgia - 1,714
Nevada - 1,331
Alabama - 1,142
South Carolina -1,125
Mississippi - 1,092
North Carolina - 945
 
/\ What do their throughways look like?

I'm sure, soon, many people will flee these hotspots like infected rats jumping off a sinking ship - if they're not doing so already.

Spreading the virus like wildfire.
 
26-Jun-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 9,695,374 (up from 9,478,266 / 2.3%) - *‬*217,108 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 491,595 (up from 483,613) - **7,982 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 2,424,054 cases (up from 2,381,369 / 1.8% yesterday), ‬**42,685 new cases, 19.7% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 1,053 (2.6%), outside NJ/NY - 39,890 (97.4%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 124,891 deaths, 2,820 deaths yesterday , 35.3% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 76 (10.9%), outside NJ/NY - 624 (89.1%)
- Testing: - 29,207,820 tests (up from 28,567,355 yesterday, +640,465 tests), 8.9% of the US population has been tested, 8.3% positive rate

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):
  • US: 2,424,054 (up from 2,381,369 / +42,685 / 1.8%) - 124,891 deaths (+2,820)
  • Brazil: 1,228,114 (up from 1,188,631 / +39,483 / 3.3%) - 54,971 deaths (+1,141)
  • Russia: 619,936 (up from 613,148 / +6,788 / 1.1%) - 8,770 deaths (+176)
  • India: 490,401 (up from 473,105 / +17,296 / 3.7%) - 15,301 deaths (+407)
  • UK : 309,456 (up from 308,337 / +1,119 / 0.4%) - 43,498 deaths (+333)
  • Iran : 217,724 (up from 215,096 / +2,628 / 1.2%) - 10,239 deaths (+109)
  • Mexico: 202,951 (up from 196,847 / +6,104 / 3.1%) - 25,060 deaths (+736)
  • Turkey: 193,115 (up from 191,657 / +1,458 / 0.8%) - 5,065 deaths (+40)
  • Sweden: 65,137 (up from 63,890 / +1,247 / 2.0%) - 5,280 deaths (+50)
Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:
  • Spain : 247,486 (up from 247,486 / +0 / 0.0%) - 28,338 deaths (+8)
  • Italy : 239,706 (up from 239,410 / +296 / 0.1%) - 34,708 deaths (+64)
  • France : 197,885 (up from 197,885 / +0 / 0.0%) - 29,755 deaths (+21)
  • Germany : 193,916 (up from 193,371 / +545 / 0.3%) - 8,965 deaths (+28)
  • Canada : 104,463 (up from 104,087 / +376 / 0.4%) - 8,570 deaths (+26)
  • China: 84,704 (up from 84,673 / +31 / 0.0%) - 4,641 deaths (+1)
  • Belgium: 61,106 (up from 61,007 / +99 / 0.2%) - 9,731 deaths (+5)
  • Netherlands : 50,213 (up from 50,122 / +91 / 0.2%) - 6,122 deaths (+3)
  • Switzerland : 31,486 (up from 31,428 / +58 / 0.2%) - 1,962 deaths (+4)
  • Ireland: 25,405 (up from 25,396 / +9 / 0.0%) - 1,730 deaths (+4)
  • Japan: 18,155 (up from 18,056 / +99 / 0.5%) - 971 deaths (+0)
  • South Korea : 12,602 (up from 12,563 / +39 / 0.3%) - 282 deaths (+0)
  • Australia : 7,595 (up from 7,558 / +37 / 0.5%) - 104 deaths (+0)
  • New Zealand: 1,520 (up from 1,519 / +1 / 0.1%) - 22 deaths (+0)
 
Kahaih said:
/\ What do their throughways look like?

I'm sure, soon, many people will flee these hotspots like infected rats jumping off a sinking ship - if they're not doing so already.

Spreading the virus like wildfire.
Click to expand...

This is the reality....it will be impossible to stop interstate movement or to force an utterly undisciplined populace to self-quarantine.

But ironically, Trump started his regime with a travelban...and now, as Canada and the EU are re-opening...it will likely end with a travel ban.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/26/euro...4A8v-hAA3phlYvHPChPXDYKu8YsbQQ9wGwxN6cASYjxws
 
The rest of the world should watch this and make sure they don't let us in - the folks from Palm Beach are frightening - and we have them here in California too. I suspect they are everywhere - the the reason for the new spike.

 
cabinfever said:
The rest of the world should watch this and make sure they don't let us in - the folks from Palm Beach are frightening - and we have them here in California too. I suspect they are everywhere - the the reason for the new spike.
Click to expand...

The cues in this woman's ramblings is she's spewing a list of conspiracy theories going back to Pizzagate in 2016. She needs to get off the internet. She probably needs to be on meds.

If you want to really understand that there are mentally ill people among us, read about Pizzagate.

Other key words: "sovereign", "God wants.." along with strange theories about human physiology.

And the mentally ill also live on the other coast- this one is Orange County, CA:

 
KaraBulut said:
The cues in this woman's ramblings is she's spewing a list of conspiracy theories going back to Pizzagate in 2016. She needs to get off the internet. She probably needs to be on meds.

If you want to really understand that there are mentally ill people among us, read about Pizzagate.

Other key words: "sovereign", "God wants.." along with strange theories about human physiology.

And the mentally ill also live on the other coast- this one is Orange County, CA:

Click to expand...

YIKES!

We have them in the SF Bay Area too. I just shake my head at them.
 
KaraBulut said:
The cues in this woman's ramblings is she's spewing a list of conspiracy theories going back to Pizzagate in 2016. She needs to get off the internet. She probably needs to be on meds.

If you want to really understand that there are mentally ill people among us, read about Pizzagate.

Other key words: "sovereign", "God wants.." along with strange theories about human physiology.

And the mentally ill also live on the other coast- this one is Orange County, CA:

Click to expand...

This is painful to watch.
 
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