On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[KaraBulut]

^ Hmmm ... 57 of 61 after 35 days at sea. And, "exhibiting symptoms". Even if the first tests were faulty, or if one or more picked it up on their way from the hotel to the ship, what was it doing? Recycling among the crew?

I'm hoping that Argentina gets their epidemiologists involved. Fortunately, Argentina has a good healthcare system and they have been taking a realistic approach to the pandemic.

The pattern that often seems to happen with COVID-19 is that it takes about 2 weeks for those who are going to get really sick to get to the point where they seek medical assistance. The way this thing spreads on a ship is slow and exponential and because there's a large number of asymptomatic carriers (especially among young people), it can be a month before it gets completely out of control. We saw with the USS Theodore Roosevelt.

Here's a timeline for the USS TR:

• On 8-Mar, USS TR reported that several sailors had been exposed to coronavirus at an onshore hotel in Vietnam. Thirty-nine soldiers are placed in quarantine.
• On 24-Mar, 3 sailors go to sick bay reporting that they have lost their sense of smell. The medical officer sends them back to work instead of putting them in isolation. Three other sailors test positive and these 3 sailors had no contact with the 39 sailors in quarantine.
• On 25-Mar, 4 crew members with COVID-19 are airlifted off the ship.
• On 26-Mar, 33 crew members test positive for COVID-19.
• On 28-Mar, 46 crew members have COVID-19.
• On 29-Mar, the number of cases rises to 53.
• On 31-Mar, the number of cases is over 100.
• On 1-Apr, the Navy rents 4,000 hotel rooms in Guam and evacuates non-essential personnel from the ship.
• On 5-Apr, the number of cases is 155.
• On 7-Apr, the number of cases is 173.
• On 8-Apr, the number of cases is 416.
• On 11-Apr, the number of cases is 550.
• On 12-Apr, the number of cases is 585.
• On 13-Apr, an officer from the TR dies while in quarantine in Guam.
• On 17 April, seven crew members were in the hospital including one in intensive care.
• On 20-Apr, a review finds that a total of 678 crew members have tested positive and 3,904 have tested negative. About 60% of the people who tested positive did not have symptoms.
• On 5-Jun, the Navy declares the epidemic resolved and the USS TR departs Guam.

So, it took from 8-Mar to 24-Mar (17 days) for the first cases to be identified. It then took from 24-Mar when the first cases were identified until 20-Apr for it to spread to 678 people. That's 44 days from exposure (8-Mar to 20-Apr) to get to 678 cases. It was 28 days from first 3 cases (24-Mar) to get to 678 cases.

The Wikipedia entry for the USS TR epidemic has an interesting comment:

Sailors kept testing positive for the virus even after 14 days of isolation; some who tested positive had previously tested negative.

 

[rareboy]

I am fascinated by the 'at sea' transmission and caseloads.

I am terrified by the positive/negative testing results because of the wider implications.

I don't trust any country's reporting or testing at this point; it has been ridiculously politicized by men with small penises (Penii?).

The only thing that really strikes me is how even one case, undetected, could wreak havoc.

Plague rats anyone?

 

[belamyi]

I am honestly surprised at this point that DeSantis isn’t actually be drug through the streets. People are absolutely pissed off at him.

Kids can absolutely not go back to school. Was talking about it with my SO’s sister today and there is absolutely no way you can properly do social distancing and masks with all these kids in these schools.

So that is why the poor thing looked so upset and petrified at a protester shouting "shame on you" to his face: not only he is at a loss in deep shit, but, shock and horror, it is not a bipartisan thing, and everybody is just as rabidly pissed.

 

[ClubLevelVegan]

So that is why the poor thing looked so upset and petrified at a protester shouting "shame on you" to his face: not only he is at a loss in deep shit, but, shock and horror, it is not a bipartisan thing, and everybody is just as rabidly pissed.

Yes, and what the guy said about misinforming people about the numbers is also true. Also the fact that he declared a State of Emergency for 60 Days but within that period wants to open Schools, while School Boards are having meetings virtually, which alone should be sign enough to say Kids shouldn't be going back to School. And there are no real plans as to what Schools in Florida should be doing to handle COVID19 and they open in August.
--

This gem is from a women who is running for School Board in Nevada. It's almost incredible how callous this is.

 

[belamyi]

Yes, and what the guy said about misinforming people about the numbers is also true. Also the fact that he declared a State of Emergency for 60 Days but within that period wants to open Schools, while School Boards are having meetings virtually, which alone should be sign enough to say Kids shouldn't be going back to School. And there are no real plans as to what Schools in Florida should be doing to handle COVID19 and they open in August.
--

This gem is from a women who is running for School Board in Nevada. It's almost incredible how callous this is.

View attachment 1432415

So let's fight terrorists by bravely and maturely jumping with our kids to their faces: like with WWII, producing more weapons would even give a bigger boost to the economy.

Hail Mammon!!

 

[KaraBulut]

I am fascinated by the 'at sea' transmission and caseloads.

I am terrified by the positive/negative testing results because of the wider implications.

I don't trust any country's reporting or testing at this point; it has been ridiculously politicized by men with small penises (Penii?).

The only thing that really strikes me is how even one case, undetected, could wreak havoc.

Plague rats anyone?

It's one of the few ethical involuntary test subject scenarios. When I went back and read the chronology, it was really infuriating.

The thing that I didn't mention is that the ship implemented early measures to quarantine, social distance and to apply bleach to surfaces all over the ship. The one thing they didn't do was mask although given the close quarters on a ship, it's not clear how effective this might have been.

The captain made some mistakes but that's easy to say in hindsight now that we know more about the virus. He'll never get credit for the number of lives that he may have saved by sacrificing his career.

Hopefully, the injustice will be corrected by the Biden Administration.

 

[KaraBulut]

Update from the phase I trials from the Moderna vaccine. The Moderna vaccine is a messenger RNA vaccine and does not contain the actual virus.

• 45 participants received one shot and 42 were able to receive the second shot
• No adverse events although one of the participants who got the first shot developed hives and did not receive the second shot
• Reactions to the first shot were mild. Reactions to the second shot were reported more often but were similar to those from a flu shot (e.g. fever, chills, muscle aches, pain at the injection site)
• Neutralizing antibodies to the spike protein were found in all participants who received the second shot. Antibody levels were similar to those in patients who had COVID-19.

The vaccine will now move to Phase 3 trials with an expected 30,000 people.


An mRNA Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 — Preliminary Report [NEJM]

 

[KaraBulut]

Florida Sets Single-Day Record for Coronavirus Deaths With 132, Adds 9,100 New Cases [6SouthFlorida]

More than 77,000 COVID-19 cases have been reported in the state in the past seven days

The 9,194 new COVID-19 cases since Monday brought the state's total to 291,629, according to figures released by the Florida Department of Health. More than 77,000 cases have been reported in the past seven days, including Sunday's single-day record high of about 15,300.

DeSantis said it was a "blip".

 

[KaraBulut]

Notice - Both New York and New Jersey had NO new cases yesterday.

14-Jul-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 13,145,302 (up from 12,984,811 / 1.3%) - *‬*160,491 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 574,072 (up from 570,397) - **3,675 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 3,374,654 cases (up from 3,332,685 / 1.3% yesterday), ‬**41,969 new cases, 26.2% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 0 (0.0%), outside NJ/NY - 51,163 (100.0%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 135,802 deaths, 423 deaths yesterday , 11.5% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 5 (0.9%), outside NJ/NY - 550 (99.1%)
- Testing: - 41,764,557 tests (up from 40,282,176 yesterday, +728,781 tests), 12.2% of the US population has been tested, 8.1% positive rate

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US: 3,374,654 (up from 3,332,685 / +41,969 / 1.3%) - 135,802 deaths (+423)
• Brazil: 1,884,967 (up from 1,864,681 / +20,286 / 1.1%) - 72,833 deaths (+733)
• India: 906,752 (up from 878,254 / +28,498 / 3.4%) - 23,727 deaths (+553)
• Russia: 738,787 (up from 732,547 / +6,240 / 0.9%) - 11,597 deaths (+175)
• Mexico: 304,435 (up from 299,750 / +4,685 / 1.6%) - 35,491 deaths (+485)
• UK : 291,691 (up from 291,685 / +6 / 0.0%) - 44,915 deaths (+0)
• Iran : 262,173 (up from 259,652 / +2,521 / 1.0%) - 13,211 deaths (+179)
• Sweden: 76,001 (up from 75,826 / +175 / 0.2%) - 5,545 deaths (+9)
• Australia : 10,251 (up from 9,980 / +271 / 2.8%) - 110 deaths (+2)
• Japan: 22,431 (up from 22,097 / +334 / 1.5%) - 984 deaths (+0)

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain : 256,619 (up from 255,953 / +666 / 0.3%) - 28,409 deaths (+3)
• Italy : 243,344 (up from 243,230 / +114 / 0.0%) - 34,984 deaths (+17)
• Turkey: 214,001 (up from 214,001 / +0 / 0.0%) - 5,382 deaths (+0)
• France : 209,640 (up from 208,015 / +1,625 / 0.8%) - 30,032 deaths (+25)
• Germany : 200,456 (up from 200,075 / +381 / 0.2%) - 9,077 deaths (+3)
• Canada : 110,058 (up from 109,500 / +558 / 0.5%) - 8,836 deaths (+5)
• China: 85,117 (up from 85,117 / +0 / 0.0%) - 4,641 deaths (+0)
• Belgium: 62,781 (up from 62,707 / +74 / 0.1%) - 9,787 deaths (+5)
• Netherlands : 51,361 (up from 51,308 / +53 / 0.1%) - 6,154 deaths (-2)
• Switzerland : 33,016 (up from 32,946 / +70 / 0.2%) - 1,968 deaths (+0)
• Ireland: 25,638 (up from 25,638 / +0 / 0.0%) - 1,746 deaths (+0)
• South Korea : 13,512 (up from 13,479 / +33 / 0.2%) - 289 deaths (+0)
• New Zealand: 1,545 (up from 1,544 / +1 / 0.1%) - 22 deaths (+0)

 

[cityboy-stl]

Update from the phase I trials from the Moderna vaccine. The Moderna vaccine is a messenger RNA vaccine and does not contain the actual virus.

• 45 participants received one shot and 42 were able to receive the second shot
• No adverse events although one of the participants who got the first shot developed hives and did not receive the second shot
• Reactions to the first shot were mild. Reactions to the second shot were reported more often but were similar to those from a flu shot (e.g. fever, chills, muscle aches, pain at the injection site)
• Neutralizing antibodies to the spike protein were found in all participants who received the second shot. Antibody levels were similar to those in patients who had COVID-19.

The vaccine will now move to Phase 3 trials with an expected 30,000 people.


An mRNA Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 — Preliminary Report [NEJM]

Interesting. I did read through this but most of it was over my head. I guess the critical question to be answered is how long these neutralizing antibodies will last? The side effects do not appear to be significant, which is good, and are consistent with most other vaccines. Hopefully nothing more serious will appear. Crosses fingers.

 

[KaraBulut]

Interesting. I did read through this but most of it was over my head. I guess the critical question to be answered is how long these neutralizing antibodies will last? The side effects do not appear to be significant, which is good, and are consistent with most other vaccines. Hopefully nothing more serious will appear. Crosses fingers.

There's a big argument going on between experts about this. What they agree upon is that coronavirus antibodies decrease over time. The argument at the moment is how long of a time.

 

[rareboy]

How Sweden has possibly fucked up.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics...vPa2YaygECOASXeAGnG7PSDl7Lp7O9fhbg5urm8V1yYlw

As one of the American Governors noted this week....herd immunity is an impossible goal...in his state it would require twice the number of daily cases as their worst day so far to get to that level...and their health system is already over-taxed under the weight of the current hospitalizations.

It isn't just about the number of people who will die....although it strikes me that Sweden has been reckless and careless with respect to protecting vulnerable populations as well.

 

[rareboy]

The hotspots.

https://www.axios.com/florida-coron...rDVu671vZtGxUlEr--ZHWNwrSHZnS6AbbfrI42pKWsxT0

 

[cityboy-stl]

Three weeks after the Tulsa Nuremburg rally, Oklahoma has a record number of cases. What a mess.

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt announces he has tested positive for coronavirus [CNN]

He asked for it.

 

[KaraBulut]

15-Jul-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 13,405,694 (up from 13,145,302 / 2.0%) - *‬*260,392 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 580,552 (up from 574,072) - **6,480 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 3,434,636 cases (up from 3,374,654 / 1.8% yesterday), ‬**59,982 new cases, 23.0% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 1,305 (2.0%), outside NJ/NY - 63,472 (98.0%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 136,940 deaths, 1,138 deaths yesterday , 17.6% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 35 (4.6%), outside NJ/NY - 730 (95.4%)

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US: 3,434,636 (up from 3,374,654 / +59,982 / 1.8%) - 136,940 deaths (+1,138)
• Brazil: 1,926,824 (up from 1,884,967 / +41,857 / 2.2%) - 74,133 deaths (+1,300)
• India: 936,181 (up from 906,752 / +29,429 / 3.4%) - 24,309 deaths (+582)
• Russia: 745,197 (up from 738,787 / +6,410 / 0.9%) - 11,753 deaths (+156)
• Mexico: 311,486 (up from 304,435 / +7,051 / 2.4%) - 36,327 deaths (+836)
• UK : 292,931 (up from 291,691 / +1,240 / 0.4%) - 45,138 deaths (+223)
• Iran : 264,561 (up from 262,173 / +2,388 / 0.9%) - 13,410 deaths (+199)
• Sweden: 76,492 (up from 76,001 / +491 / 0.6%) - 5,572 deaths (+27)
• Japan: 22,862 (up from 22,431 / +431 / 2.0%) - 984 deaths (+0)
• Australia : 10,495 (up from 10,251 / +244 / 2.4%) - 111 deaths (+1)

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain : 256,619 (up from 256,619 / +0 / 0.0%) - 28,413 deaths (+4)
• Italy : 243,344 (up from 243,344 / +0 / 0.0%) - 34,997 deaths (+13)
• Turkey: 214,993 (up from 214,001 / +992 / 0.5%) - 5,419 deaths (+37)
• France : 209,641 (up from 209,640 / +1 / 0.0%) - 30,123 deaths (+91)
• Germany : 200,744 (up from 200,456 / +288 / 0.1%) - 9,080 deaths (+3)
• Canada : 110,350 (up from 110,058 / +292 / 0.3%) - 8,849 deaths (+13)
• China: 85,245 (up from 85,117 / +128 / 0.2%) - 4,642 deaths (+1)
• Belgium: 62,872 (up from 62,781 / +91 / 0.1%) - 9,788 deaths (+1)
• Netherlands : 51,471 (up from 51,361 / +110 / 0.2%) - 6,155 deaths (+1)
• Switzerland : 33,148 (up from 33,016 / +132 / 0.4%) - 1,968 deaths (+0)
• Ireland: 25,670 (up from 25,638 / +32 / 0.1%) - 1,748 deaths (+2)
• South Korea : 13,551 (up from 13,512 / +39 / 0.3%) - 289 deaths (+0)
• New Zealand: 1,547 (up from 1,545 / +2 / 0.1%) - 22 deaths (+0)

 

[Alistair]

Ohio's governor held a press conference today. Everyone thought he was going to mandate masks for the whole state. Pull back on some of the openings. Nope. Nothing. Won't even do anything about the schools opening. He says it's up to each individual district to decide.

I'll let you know when I catch it. It was nice knowing you all.

 

[willie metcaffe]

I was expecting at least mandatory mask wearing. Summit County (Akron) has it. Other counties too I imagine. The Governor punted.

 

[Alistair]

I was expecting at least mandatory mask wearing. Summit County (Akron) has it. Other counties too I imagine. The Governor punted.

Summit, Cuyahoga, Lorain (I'm at), Hamilton and Franklin. A few more. He should have made it state wide.

It's a shame that the stores themselves have to do the job of the government. Menards and Costco, now Walmart and Sam's club are all requiring masks to enter the store.

 

[belamyi]

Ohio's governor held a press conference today. Everyone thought he was going to mandate masks for the whole state. Pull back on some of the openings. Nope. Nothing. Won't even do anything about the schools opening. He says it's up to each individual district to decide.

I'll let you know when I catch it. It was nice knowing you all.

It has always worked the same: when politicians in charge decide to let "democracy" trickle down for decision-making purposes, it is because they want to pass down the responsibility of dealing with a hot mess, because there they do not have any profitable lie to sell to the mass.

 

[KaraBulut]

Ohio's governor held a press conference today. Everyone thought he was going to mandate masks for the whole state. Pull back on some of the openings. Nope. Nothing. Won't even do anything about the schools opening. He says it's up to each individual district to decide.

I'll let you know when I catch it. It was nice knowing you all.

Ohio was doing so well. Gov DeWine was aggressive back in March in putting in measures to stop the spread of the virus before it got out of control.

The week of 27-June was where things changed. Below are the average per day case number for Ohio:

• 04-Apr - 311 avg cases per day (+2,175 per week)
• 11-Apr - 367 (+2,566)
• 18-Apr - 461 (+3,229)
• 25-Apr - 866 (+6,062)
• 02-May - 511 (+,3574)
• 09-May - 610 (+4,273)
• 16-May - 563 (+3,938)
• 23-May - 549 (+3,840)
• 30-May - 539 (+3,772)
• 06-Jun - 456 (+3,192)
• 13-Jun - 381 (+2,666)
• 20-Jun - 472 (+3,307)
• 27-Jun - 701 (+4,907)
• 04-Jul - 946 (+6,619)
• 11-Jul - 1086 (+7,599)

The data shows that Ohio has a problem with younger people spreading the virus. The worst area is around Columbus which, if I remember correctly, is where Ohio State University is located?

About one-third of COVID-19 cases in Ohio have been in past three weeks [Cincinnati.com]

Since the pandemic surfaced in Ohio on March 9, the state now has totaled 3,064 deaths and 66,853 cases, 13% of which have required treatment in hospitals.

Franklin County, a “red,” mask-required county that leads the state in cases and deaths, reported 266 more cases on Monday and another two deaths to raise its pandemic totals to 12,301 and 449, respectively.

With nearly 1,000 virus patients now requiring inpatient care, hospitalizations have increased 13% since July 1. Reported deaths, largely among nursing home residents and the elderly, have risen 7%.

While increased testing is rooting out more cases with mild or no symptoms, and younger adults are catching the virus in increasing numbers, state health officials say coronavirus is multiplying through community spread.

The rate of positive virus tests averaged 4.3% during June and since has climbed by more than 40%. The state’s average test positivity rate for July stood at 6.3% through Sunday.