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On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

18-Jul-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 14,119,763 (up from 13,885,746 / 1.7%) - *‬*234,017 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 597,861 (up from 592,573) - **5,288 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 3,672,947 cases (up from 3,604,408 / 1.9% yesterday), ‬**68,539 new cases, 29.3% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 1,843 (2.3%), outside NJ/NY - 78,788 (97.7%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 139,532 deaths, 883 deaths yesterday , 15.8% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 62 (6.3%), outside NJ/NY - 927 (93.7%)
- Testing: - 44,203,733 tests (up from 43,351,945 yesterday, +851,788 tests), 13.4% of the US population has been tested, 8.3% positive rate

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):
  • US: 3,672,947 (up from 3,604,408 / +68,539 / 1.9%) - 139,532 deaths (+883)
  • Brazil: 2,046,328 (up from 2,012,151 / +34,177 / 1.7%) - 77,851 deaths (+1,163)
  • India: 1,038,716 (up from 1,003,832 / +34,884 / 3.5%) - 26,273 deaths (+671)
  • Russia: 764,215 (up from 758,001 / +6,214 / 0.8%) - 12,228 deaths (+122)
  • Mexico: 331,298 (up from 324,041 / +7,257 / 2.2%) - 38,310 deaths (+736)
  • Iran : 271,606 (up from 269,440 / +2,166 / 0.8%) - 13,979 deaths (+188)
  • Spain : 260,255 (up from 260,255 / +0 / 0.0%) - 28,420 deaths (+0) - no update
  • Turkey: 218,717 (up from 216,873 / +1,844 / 0.9%) - 5,475 deaths (+35)
  • Sweden: 77,281 (up from 77,281 / +0 / 0.0%) - 5,619 deaths (+0) - no update
  • Japan: 24,763 (up from 24,093 / +670 / 2.8%) - 986 deaths (+1)
  • Australia : 11,441 (up from 11,235 / +206 / 1.8%) - 119 deaths (+3)
Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:
  • UK : 295,631 (up from 294,803 / +828 / 0.3%) - 45,358 deaths (+40)
  • Italy : 244,216 (up from 243,967 / +249 / 0.1%) - 35,042 deaths (+14)
  • France : 211,943 (up from 211,102 / +841 / 0.4%) - 30,155 deaths (+14)
  • Germany : 202,426 (up from 201,945 / +481 / 0.2%) - 9,091 deaths (+2)
  • Canada : 111,785 (up from 111,317 / +468 / 0.4%) - 8,891 deaths (+13)
  • China: 85,314 (up from 85,314 / +0 / 0.0%) - 4,644 deaths (+0)
  • Belgium: 63,499 (up from 63,238 / +261 / 0.4%) - 9,800 deaths (+5)
  • Netherlands : 51,809 (up from 51,676 / +133 / 0.3%) - 6,155 deaths (-2)
  • Switzerland : 33,492 (up from 33,382 / +110 / 0.3%) - 1,969 deaths (+0)
  • Ireland: 25,750 (up from 25,698 / +52 / 0.2%) - 1,753 deaths (+4)
  • South Korea : 13,711 (up from 13,672 / +39 / 0.3%) - 294 deaths (+1)
  • New Zealand: 1,550 (up from 1,549 / +1 / 0.1%) - 22 deaths (+0)
 
rareboy said:
And this is one of the ways you can simply hide reality.
Click to expand...

^ Kemp's always been a shifty MF! They're sliding the color coded bracket designations. Weren't they also the ones reporting data out of sequence to make it look like their curve was going down, not all that long ago? :telstra:
 
19-Jul-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 14,355,705 (up from 14,119,763 / 1.7%) - *‬*235,942 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 603,285 (up from 597,861) - **5,424 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 3,739,726 cases (up from 3,672,947 / 1.8% yesterday), ‬**66,779 new cases, 28.3% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 502 (0.8%), outside NJ/NY - 62,764 (99.2%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 140,294 deaths, 762 deaths yesterday , 14.0% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 4 (0.6%), outside NJ/NY - 719 (99.4%)
- Testing: - 44,965,504 tests (up from 44,203,733 yesterday, +761,771 tests), 8.3% of the US population has been tested, 13.6% positive rate

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):
  • US: 3,739,726 (up from 3,672,947 / +66,779 / 1.8%) - 140,294 deaths (+762)
  • Brazil: 2,074,860 (up from 2,046,328 / +28,532 / 1.4%) - 78,772 deaths (+921)
  • India: 1,077,781 (up from 1,038,716 / +39,065 / 3.8%) - 26,816 deaths (+543)
  • Russia: 770,311 (up from 764,215 / +6,096 / 0.8%) - 12,323 deaths (+95)
  • Mexico: 338,913 (up from 331,298 / +7,615 / 2.3%) - 38,888 deaths (+578)
  • UK : 296,358 (up from 295,631 / +727 / 0.2%) - 45,358 deaths (+0)
  • Iran : 273,788 (up from 271,606 / +2,182 / 0.8%) - 14,188 deaths (+209)
  • Turkey: 219,641 (up from 218,717 / +924 / 0.4%) - 5,491 deaths (+16)
  • Sweden: 77,281 (up from 77,281 / +0 / 0.0%) - 5,619 deaths (+0) - no update
  • Japan: 25,274 (up from 24,763 / +511 / 2.1%) - 986 deaths (+0)
  • Australia : 11,802 (up from 11,441 / +361 / 3.2%) - 122 deaths (+3)
Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:
  • Spain : 260,255 (up from 260,255 / +0 / 0.0%) - 28,420 deaths (+0)
  • Italy : 244,434 (up from 244,216 / +218 / 0.1%) - 35,045 deaths (+3)
  • France : 211,943 (up from 211,943 / +0 / 0.0%) - 30,155 deaths (+0)
  • Germany : 202,612 (up from 202,426 / +186 / 0.1%) - 9,092 deaths (+1)
  • Canada : 112,095 (up from 111,785 / +310 / 0.3%) - 8,893 deaths (+2)
  • China: 85,314 (up from 85,314 / +0 / 0.0%) - 4,644 deaths (+0)
  • Belgium: 63,706 (up from 63,499 / +207 / 0.3%) - 9,800 deaths (+0)
  • Netherlands : 51,953 (up from 51,809 / +144 / 0.3%) - 6,155 deaths (+0)
  • Switzerland : 33,591 (up from 33,492 / +99 / 0.3%) - 1,969 deaths (+0)
  • Ireland: 25,760 (up from 25,750 / +10 / 0.0%) - 1,753 deaths (+0)
  • South Korea : 13,745 (up from 13,711 / +34 / 0.2%) - 295 deaths (+1)
  • New Zealand: 1,553 (up from 1,550 / +3 / 0.2%) - 22 deaths (+0)
 
20-Jul-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 14,538,115 (up from 14,355,705 / 1.3%) - *‬*182,410 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 606,922 (up from 603,285) - **3,637 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 3,774,769 cases (up from 3,739,726 / 0.9% yesterday), ‬**35,043 new cases, 19.2% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - -31 (-0.1%), outside NJ/NY - 37,650 (100.1%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 140,563 deaths, 269 deaths yesterday , 7.2% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 24 (8.4%), outside NJ/NY - 262 (91.6%)
- Testing: - 45,734,327 tests (up from 44,965,504 yesterday, +768,823 tests), 13.9% of the US population has been tested, 8.3% positive rate

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):
  • US: 3,774,769 (up from 3,739,726 / +35,043 / 0.9%) - 140,563 deaths (+269)
  • Brazil: 2,098,389 (up from 2,074,860 / +23,529 / 1.1%) - 79,488 deaths (+716)
  • India: 1,118,206 (up from 1,077,781 / +40,425 / 3.8%) - 27,497 deaths (+681)
  • Russia: 776,212 (up from 770,311 / +5,901 / 0.8%) - 12,408 deaths (+85)
  • Mexico: 344,224 (up from 338,913 / +5,311 / 1.6%) - 39,184 deaths (+296)
  • Iran : 276,202 (up from 273,788 / +2,414 / 0.9%) - 14,405 deaths (+217)
  • Spain : 260,255 (up from 260,255 / +0 / 0.0%) - 28,420 deaths (+0) - no update
  • Turkey: 219,641 (up from 219,641 / +0 / 0.0%) - 5,491 deaths (+0) - no update
  • Sweden: 78,048 (up from 77,281 / +767 / 1.0%) - 5,639 deaths (+20)
  • Japan: 25,692 (up from 25,274 / +418 / 1.7%) - 988 deaths (+2)
  • Australia : 12,070 (up from 11,802 / +268 / 2.3%) - 123 deaths (+1)
Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:
  • UK : 296,364 (up from 296,358 / +6 / 0.0%) - 45,358 deaths (+0)
  • Italy : 244,434 (up from 244,434 / +0 / 0.0%) - 35,045 deaths (+0)
  • France : 211,943 (up from 211,943 / +0 / 0.0%) - 30,155 deaths (+0)
  • Germany : 202,953 (up from 202,612 / +341 / 0.2%) - 9,094 deaths (+2)
  • Canada : 112,168 (up from 112,095 / +73 / 0.1%) - 8,896 deaths (+3)
  • China: 85,314 (up from 85,314 / +0 / 0.0%) - 4,644 deaths (+0)
  • Belgium: 63,893 (up from 63,706 / +187 / 0.3%) - 9,800 deaths (+0)
  • Netherlands : 52,140 (up from 51,953 / +187 / 0.4%) - 6,155 deaths (+0)
  • Switzerland : 33,634 (up from 33,591 / +43 / 0.1%) - 1,969 deaths (+0)
  • Ireland: 25,760 (up from 25,760 / +0 / 0.0%) - 1,753 deaths (+0)
  • South Korea : 13,771 (up from 13,745 / +26 / 0.2%) - 296 deaths (+1)
  • New Zealand: 1,554 (up from 1,553 / +1 / 0.1%) - 22 deaths (+0)
 
So it may be much worse than thought. Or better...depending on how people will spin it.

Coronavirus infections could be up to 13 times higher across US than initially reported, CDC finds

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...Y0vaH3haVezbo3mooiBNGKPSDR99ghPeQybdzuUzQpxoY

It is safe to say that the US is now within hours of more than 4 million recorded cases and over 140,000 deaths.

Canada has had a big uptick in cases as Quebec opens bars and there is an increase in cases out west. Ontario is just at the outset of stage 3 opening so we will need to see if community spread leads to an increase of cases over the next 2 weeks.
 
rareboy said:
So it may be much worse than thought. Or better...depending on how people will spin it.

Coronavirus infections could be up to 13 times higher across US than initially reported, CDC finds

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...Y0vaH3haVezbo3mooiBNGKPSDR99ghPeQybdzuUzQpxoY

It is safe to say that the US is now within hours of more than 4 million recorded cases and over 140,000 deaths.
Click to expand...

The interesting thing that is that the antibody test positivity rate in States like Florida, California and Texas has been sitting in the 4-5% range while the antigen and PCR tests are running 15-40% positive in urban areas.

That means that we're only testing about 5-20% of the people who have COVID-19. The rest are either walking around with no idea they have COVID-19 or they aren't getting sick enough to wait the hours in line that can be required to get a test.

Even if you go by case counts in the US, 1 out of every 100 people we encounter has had the virus. Based upon what the CDC is finding, we should assume that at a minimum, 1 in 25 people is likely to be infected and it could be as high as 1 in 10 in certain urban areas. That's why crowds are such a problem- the more people are in a room, the more likely it is that there's an infected person.



rareboy said:
Canada has had a big uptick in cases as Quebec opens bars and there is an increase in cases out west. Ontario is just at the outset of stage 3 opening so we will need to see if community spread leads to an increase of cases over the next 2 weeks.
Click to expand...

What is going on in Alberta, by the way?

Alberta has had nearly 800 new cases in the past week. They've gone up 9% in 7 days.
 
^ Around 75% of the new cases in Catalonia, and 81% in Galicia, at the other end of Northern Spain, can not be traced back to any definite outbreak.

outbreak.PNGEvolutionrevolution.jpg
 
KaraBulut said:
The interesting thing that is that the antibody test positivity rate in States like Florida, California and Texas has been sitting in the 4-5% range while the antigen tests are running 15-40% positive in urban areas.

That means that we're only testing about 5-20% of the people who have COVID-19. The rest are either walking around with no idea they have COVID-19 or they aren't getting sick enough to wait the hours in line that can be required to get a test.

Even if you go by case counts in the US, 1 out of every 100 people we encounter has had the virus. Based upon what the CDC is finding, we should assume that at a minimum, 1 in 25 people is likely to be infected and it could be as high as 1 in 10 in certain urban areas. That's why crowds are such a problem- the more people are in a room, the more likely it is that there's an infected person.
Click to expand...



I think it's safe to assume that many people are afraid to go near a testing site/setup knowing that it's quite likely that there will be contagious people there.

And as I posted earlier, many don't want to risk the social stigma, don't want to risk being housebound and monitored, don't want to risk being taken from their homes possibly never to return ...


Now, with all of the talk about lying government officials, people don't know who to believe or trust.


And, now that we know which people are most likely to have the worst outcomes, this entire affair has taken on the look and feel of Vlad the Impaler's banquet for the indigent.
 
KaraBulut said:
snip





What is going on in Alberta, by the way?

Alberta has had nearly 800 new cases in the past week. They've gone up 9% in 7 days.
Click to expand...

Alberta had a very low case load....and it is still only 1100 active cases, but it is summer and the new cases seem to be turning up in the Calgary area where people are much more 'libertarian' in their thinking.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-covid-19-coronavirus-1.5656682

There's an update news conference today...we'll see what they have to say....but it is a worrisome trend.
 
belamo said:
^ Around 75% of the new cases in Catalonia, and 81% in Galicia, at the other end of Northern Spain, can not be traced back to any definite outbreak.

View attachment 1434672View attachment 1434674
Click to expand...

I heard that Spain was allowing a limited number of international travelers to come to vacation spots (and I've been seeing celebrities posting pictures from places like Ibiza). Are the outbreaks near the places were Europeans like to go on vacation?

I'll have to look later this even and see if Spain has submitted analysis of the new samples to see which strains are circulating.


Kulindahr said:
I can't manage to get the image to post here, so I'll have to give the link: https://www.mdmetrix.com/covid-19-projections

Scroll down to the charts and look at the one on the top right. See the weekly cycle? For the last two weeks it's been an even "hump".

What the heck is going on there???
Click to expand...

That chart is graphing daily reports. Unfortunately, not all states are funding their health department workers to work on weekends, so the stats jump up on Monday or Tuesday and then drop on weekends. Some of the testing centers have been shutting down in the afternoons and on weekends because they're running out of supplies, so we're seeing similar trends on the case numbers.

I usually look at the 7 day trending since this "smooths out" the day-to-day ups and downs.


Kahaih said:
I think it's safe to assume that many people are afraid to go near a testing site/setup knowing that it's quite likely that there will be contagious people there.
Click to expand...
It's a symptom of the dual healthcare system in the US.

We keep hearing statements like "everyone who wants a test can get one" and "testing will be at no out-of-pocket cost to the patient".

Those statements should have an asterisk that says, "depending on whether you have insurance and whether you're an outpatient".

If you are rich or your employer is paying, you can get a test for $200 and you'll get your results in a day or two.

If you have insurance, you can go to a private clinic and get a test done and they'll bill your insurance. You can expect to get your results within 2-3 days.

If you don't have insurance or you use a county outpatient testing site (many of which are drive-through so you never leave your car), then it can be 5-10 days before you get your results.

We expected that the US would be testing between 2 to 3 million people per day and results would be available within 48 hours. Yesterday, the US tested 735,197 people and there's little guarantee that results are available within a week at many of the free testing sites.
 
Kahaih said:
Edit timed out.

This is the first I've read about testing raw sewage. And at US National parks??? Interesting, I think.
Click to expand...
It is interesting. It's particularly interesting in an isolated location like Yosemite where there's a low permanent population but lots of tourists.

Spain actually pioneered checking raw sewage for RNA from coronavirus. They figured out that the virus can be found in the sewer system before the patients started showing up in hospitals in clinics.

Here's the paper (which has not been peer-reviewed):
Sentinel surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater anticipates the occurrence of COVID-19 cases [MedRxiv]
A significant proportion of undiagnosed and asymptomatic carriers shed SARS-CoV-2 in stool. Wastewater-based epidemiology is an early warning tool of the circulation of the virus in the population, including symptomatic and asymptomatic shedders. In the specific case of Barcelona, awareness of SARS-CoV-2 spread with over one-month anticipation would have enabled a better response to the epidemics.

The enormous burden in morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 calls for sentinel surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewaterto enable rapid mitigation measures in the likely event of a future pandemic wave of the infection.
Click to expand...

Even more bizarre, there was coronavirus isolated in the sewers in 2019- nine months before the Chinese outbreak:

Coronavirus traces found in March 2019 sewage sample, Spanish study shows [Reuters]
The University of Barcelona team, who had been testing waste water since mid-April this year to identify potential new outbreaks, decided to also run tests on older samples.

They first found the virus was present in Barcelona on Jan. 15, 2020, 41 days before the first case was officially reported there.

Then they ran tests on samples taken between January 2018 and December 2019 and found the presence of the virus genome in one of them, collected on March 12, 2019.

“The levels of SARS-CoV-2 were low but were positive,” research leader Albert Bosch was quoted as saying by the university.
Click to expand...
 
21-Jul-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 14,774,887 (up from 14,538,115 / 1.6%) - *‬*236,772 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 611,599 (up from 606,922) - **4,677 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 3,858,686 cases (up from 3,774,769 / 2.2% yesterday), ‬**83,917 new cases, 35.4% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 699 (1.2%), outside NJ/NY - 57,060 (98.8%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 141,426 deaths, 863 deaths yesterday , 18.5% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 20 (5.4%), outside NJ/NY - 353 (94.6%)
- Testing: - 46,469,524 tests (up from 45,734,327 yesterday, +735,197 tests), 14.1% of the US population has been tested, 8.3% positive rate

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):
  • US: 3,858,686 (up from 3,774,769 / +83,917 / 2.2%) - 141,426 deaths (+863)
  • Brazil: 2,118,646 (up from 2,098,389 / +20,257 / 1.0%) - 80,120 deaths (+632)
  • India: 1,155,354 (up from 1,118,206 / +37,148 / 3.3%) - 28,084 deaths (+587)
  • Russia: 782,040 (up from 776,212 / +5,828 / 0.8%) - 12,561 deaths (+153)
  • Mexico: 349,396 (up from 344,224 / +5,172 / 1.5%) - 39,485 deaths (+301)
  • Iran : 278,827 (up from 276,202 / +2,625 / 1.0%) - 14,634 deaths (+229)
  • Spain : 266,194 (up from 260,255 / +5,939 / 2.3%) - 28,424 deaths (+4)
  • Turkey: 220,572 (up from 219,641 / +931 / 0.4%) - 5,508 deaths (+17)
  • France : 214,607 (up from 211,943 / +2,664 / 1.3%) - 30,168 deaths (+13)
  • Sweden: 78,166 (up from 78,048 / +118 / 0.2%) - 5,646 deaths (+7)
  • Japan: 26,328 (up from 25,692 / +636 / 2.5%) - 988 deaths (+0)
  • Australia : 12,428 (up from 12,070 / +358 / 3.0%) - 126 deaths (+3)
Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:
  • UK : 297,389 (up from 296,364 / +1,025 / 0.3%) - 45,507 deaths (+149)
  • Italy : 244,752 (up from 244,434 / +318 / 0.1%) - 35,073 deaths (+28)
  • Germany : 203,565 (up from 202,953 / +612 / 0.3%) - 9,099 deaths (+5)
  • Canada : 113,005 (up from 112,168 / +837 / 0.7%) - 8,902 deaths (+6)
  • China: 85,314 (up from 85,314 / +0 / 0.0%) - 4,644 deaths (+0)
  • Belgium: 64,094 (up from 63,893 / +201 / 0.3%) - 9,805 deaths (+5)
  • Netherlands : 52,305 (up from 52,140 / +165 / 0.3%) - 6,155 deaths (+0)
  • Switzerland : 33,742 (up from 33,634 / +108 / 0.3%) - 1,972 deaths (+3)
  • Ireland: 25,802 (up from 25,760 / +42 / 0.2%) - 1,753 deaths (+0)
  • South Korea : 13,816 (up from 13,771 / +45 / 0.3%) - 296 deaths (+0)
  • New Zealand: 1,555 (up from 1,554 / +1 / 0.1%) - 22 deaths (+0)
 
KaraBulut said:
...We expected that the US would be testing between 2 to 3 million people per day and results would be available within 48 hours. Yesterday, the US tested 735,197 people and there's little guarantee that results are available within a week at many of the free testing sites.
Click to expand...

Speak of the devil...

Lawmakers perplexed by billions in unspent Covid-19 testing money [CNN]
Despite severe shortages in coronavirus testing supplies and lags in results, the Trump administration is still sitting on billions of dollars in unused funding that Congress allocated months ago. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have questions about why the money has not been used as testing continues to fall well short of the national need...

As negotiations have ramped up between the White House and Senate Republicans in recent days on whether to include more funding for testing in the next round of stimulus, the White House pushed against more money over the weekend, arguing that billions remain unspent. But lawmakers and aides -- who estimate the remaining amount at about $7 billion to $8 billion -- say they've been unable to get a clear answer to why that money hasn't been touched in the first place...

The letter also demanded that the administration explain why billions in funding to build up the Strategic National Stockpile hadn't been used as reports show that states are once again struggling to find adequate personal protective equipment to weather the pandemic.

"Yet nearly four months later, the Administration has obligated only half of the funds Congress provided for the SNS (and only a portion of this was spent on PPE) and the Department of Defense has informed us that it intends to use nearly 70 percent of the DPA funding for shipbuilding, aircraft development, and other defense programs," the letter reads, referring to the Defense Production Act.
Click to expand...
 
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