On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[KaraBulut]

A few comments about last week's statistics:

Week ending 15-May-2021:

• Approx number of US residents vaccinated - 1st dose: - 156,217,367 (up from 151,315,505 / 4,901,862) - 47.34% of US population
• Approx number of US residents vaccinated - 2nd dose: - 121,768,268 (up from 112,626,771 / 9,141,497) - 36.90% of US population

The level at which "herd immunity" or "community immunity" is reached for SARS-CoV-2 is a theoretical concept. It's actual number is not known, although most epidemiologists estimate that about 70-80% of the population will need to be immune to arrest the continued spread of the virus. The vaccines have been far more effective in reducing the number of infections and particularly, the death rate in the US than the foolish attempts at "herd immunity" via infection with the virus.

There's a few things to consider:

1. "Immunity" is the sum of people vaccinated plus people who have immunity because they were previously infected by the virus.
2. "Herd immunity" is a concept and there's been a lot of focus on it. Because the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines provide about 90% immunity to the virus, the infection and death numbers started declining greatly because the US prioritized the vulnerable, elderly and healthcare workers in December and January. Targeting the high risk populations is why the death rate declined much faster than the new case numbers.
3. The immunity conferred by infection with the virus may be incomplete and temporary. With most of the new variants, the vaccines seem to be very effective but the immunity from actual infection may not provide immunity to variants.
4. Because the vaccines have only been approved for children and adults 12 years and older, there will remain a population that is vulnerable to infection.

Coronavirus weekly cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• India: 24,372,907 (up from 21,892,676 / +2,480,231 / 11.3%) - 266,207 deaths (+27,937) - avg daily: cases (+354,319) / deaths (+3,991)

India had 2,480,231 new cases last week. That's a mind-blogging number. With a 1-2% estimated mortality, that will mean that between 24,000 to 48,000 people will be dying every week, far more than the 27,937 they reported.

• Brazil: 15,586,534 (up from 15,145,879 / +440,655 / 2.9%) - 434,715 deaths (+13,399) - avg daily: cases (+62,951) / deaths (+1,914)

Brazil has allowed 434,715 people to die from COVID-19- second only to the US. The population of Brazil is only 211 million, so this makes the mortality rate higher in Brazil than in the US.

By allowing the virus to circulate unchecked, Brazil has created a new variant that is more contagious than the virus strain that circulated in 2020 and people who were infected with the 2020 strain are not immune to the new variant, so Brazilians are getting COVID-19 again.

• Japan: 679,870 (up from 635,568 / +44,302 / 7.0%) - 11,424 deaths (+628) - avg daily: cases (+6,329) / deaths (+90)

Japan is still planning on conducting the Olympics in July, 2021. They've only vaccinated about 2% of their population. Ooops.

 

[Telstra]

It's not a "Non Stop Fountain" if you have to reset it every time the bottom "bot-ul' gets full or the middle "bot-ul' is empty.

i thought ''non stop'' meant non stop.
The title was false or misleading :/

 

[KaraBulut]

They were all vaccinated with J&J. They talk about occasional breakthrough cases, but when 9 people together on the Yankees become infected it seems more than "occasional". But I'm glad no one is really sick so it appears to work in that respect. I assume Pfizer and Moderna are more effective at preventing infection from what they say. Bill Mahrer tested positive after vaccination as well but I don't know which one he got.

I'm keeping my mask on for a while.

A 9th vaccinated New York Yankees member tested positive for Covid-19 [CNN]

To be fair, it's worth noting that none of the 9 people who tested positive had a severe case and most didn't seem to know they were infected. The J&J vaccine was known to be less effective than the mRNA vaccines but the J&J vaccine did seem to offer some level of protection to those 9 men even though virus was found in their nose and throat.

Reading back through this thread, there's a couple of topics that were discussed that are relevant.

The first is that the vaccines were likely to ensure that acute illness and death occurred less often, even though some of the people who received the vaccine may still get infected with the virus. That is proving true. But to put it in perspective, the CDC has reported only about 220 instances where someone who received the vaccine later died of COVID-19. That's 220 deaths out of over 150 million people who have received at least one dose of the vaccine.

The second thing that has come out of the past year is that it doesn't seem crazy to see someone wearing a mask in public. Masks have become normalized. There's a lot of people proposing that they may continue wearing their mask when they are on a subway train or a bus. Or maybe they'll resume wearing their mask later in the year when flu season starts.

Food for thought:
Should We Keep Wearing Masks Even After the Pandemic Ends? [Time- Editorial]

...During the 2019-2020 flu season, at least 24,000 people in the U.S. died from the influenza virus. It’s too soon to know exactly how many people will die from the flu during the 2020-2021 season, but it will almost surely be a much lower number. Fewer than 500 people in the U.S.—and just one child—had died from the flu as of April 1, according to CDC data. Traditional flu season won’t end until May, but flu death rates would have to increase astronomically to match last year’s full season toll...

Australia is an instructive example. Rates of the childhood disease respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) plummeted there last winter—usually the dominant season for RSV—when most people were staying home and wearing masks. But as the country got COVID-19 under control and reopened for its summer season, Australia experienced an off-season surge of RSV even beyond what would be expected during a normal winter.

 

[Kulindahr]

Week ending 15-May-2021:

Global COVID-19 Weekly Mortality/Morbidity

• Global Cases reported: 162,203,982 (up from 157,263,259 / 3.1%) - *‬*4,940,723 new cases this week
• Global Deaths: 3,365,081 (up from 3,278,629) - **86,452 people died this week

US COVID-19 Weekly Mortality/Morbidity

• Cases reported in the US - 32,923,613 (up from 32,685,864 / 0.7%), +237,749 new cases, 4.8% of world's new cases were in the US
• Deaths reported in the US - 585,704 deaths, 4,193 deaths this week , 4.9% of the world's deaths this week were in the US
• Approx number of US residents vaccinated - 1st dose: - 156,217,367 (up from 151,315,505 / 4,901,862) - 47.34% of US population
• Approx number of US residents vaccinated - 2nd dose: - 121,768,268 (up from 112,626,771 / 9,141,497) - 36.90% of US population
• Approx number of US doses distributed - 344,503,395 (up from 329,840,055 / 14,663,340) - 78.6% of US doses have been administered

Coronavirus weekly cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• India: 24,372,907 (up from 21,892,676 / +2,480,231 / 11.3%) - 266,207 deaths (+27,937) - avg daily: cases (+354,319) / deaths (+3,991)
• Brazil: 15,586,534 (up from 15,145,879 / +440,655 / 2.9%) - 434,715 deaths (+13,399) - avg daily: cases (+62,951) / deaths (+1,914)
• US: 32,923,613 (up from 32,685,864 / +237,749 / 0.7%) - 585,704 deaths (+4,193) - avg daily: cases (+33,964) / deaths (+599)
• Iran : 2,739,875 (up from 2,640,670 / +99,205 / 3.8%) - 76,633 deaths (+2,109) - avg daily: cases (+14,172) / deaths (+301)
• France : 5,925,071 (up from 5,829,166 / +95,905 / 1.6%) - 107,696 deaths (+1,258) - avg daily: cases (+13,701) / deaths (+180)
• Turkey: 5,106,862 (up from 5,016,141 / +90,721 / 1.8%) - 44,537 deaths (+1,791) - avg daily: cases (+12,960) / deaths (+256)
• Germany : 3,595,872 (up from 3,520,336 / +75,536 / 2.1%) - 86,100 deaths (+1,432) - avg daily: cases (+10,791) / deaths (+205)
• Russia: 4,875,308 (up from 4,816,331 / +58,977 / 1.2%) - 113,541 deaths (+2,444) - avg daily: cases (+8,425) / deaths (+349)
• Italy : 4,153,374 (up from 4,102,921 / +50,453 / 1.2%) - 124,063 deaths (+1,369) - avg daily: cases (+7,208) / deaths (+196)
• Japan: 679,870 (up from 635,568 / +44,302 / 7.0%) - 11,424 deaths (+628) - avg daily: cases (+6,329) / deaths (+90)
• Canada : 1,331,480 (up from 1,287,932 / +43,548 / 3.4%) - 24,884 deaths (+330) - avg daily: cases (+6,221) / deaths (+47)
• Netherlands : 1,620,702 (up from 1,580,299 / +40,403 / 2.6%) - 17,703 deaths (+125) - avg daily: cases (+5,772) / deaths (+18)
• Spain : 3,604,799 (up from 3,567,408 / +37,391 / 1.0%) - 79,339 deaths (+547) - avg daily: cases (+5,342) / deaths (+78)
• Sweden: 1,037,126 (up from 1,007,792 / +29,334 / 2.9%) - 14,275 deaths (+102) - avg daily: cases (+4,191) / deaths (+15)
• Mexico: 2,380,690 (up from 2,364,617 / +16,073 / 0.7%) - 220,384 deaths (+1,456) - avg daily: cases (+2,296) / deaths (+208)
• UK : 4,464,663 (up from 4,448,808 / +15,855 / 0.4%) - 127,937 deaths (+74) - avg daily: cases (+2,265) / deaths (+11)
• Belgium: 1,030,071 (up from 1,014,351 / +15,720 / 1.5%) - 24,686 deaths (+175) - avg daily: cases (+2,246) / deaths (+25)
• Switzerland : 679,510 (up from 670,613 / +8,897 / 1.3%) - 10,730 deaths (+26) - avg daily: cases (+1,271) / deaths (+4)
• South Korea : 131,671 (up from 127,309 / +4,362 / 3.4%) - 1,900 deaths (+26) - avg daily: cases (+623) / deaths (+4)
• Lebanon: 535,446 (up from 532,269 / +3,177 / 0.6%) - 7,602 deaths (+142) - avg daily: cases (+454) / deaths (+20)
• Ireland: 254,870 (up from 252,303 / +2,567 / 1.0%) - 4,941 deaths (+22) - avg daily: cases (+367) / deaths (+3)
• China: 102,717 (up from 102,613 / +104 / 0.1%) - 4,846 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+15) / deaths (+0)
• Australia : 29,975 (up from 29,922 / +53 / 0.2%) - 910 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+8) / deaths (+0)
• New Zealand: 2,646 (up from 2,642 / +4 / 0.2%) - 26 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+1) / deaths (+0)

Am I adding correctly? It looks like India has more than half of all new cases!

 

[Kulindahr]

Just like national debt

No, national debt just keeps making the bottles bigger.

 

[Kulindahr]

Last year, while Trump and his minions were running around without masks, there was a group of people getting sick, going to emergency rooms and running up large healthcare bills.

Hospitals are starting to take those people to court to collect.

'There's no way I can pay for this:' One of America's largest hospital chains has been suing thousands of patients during the pandemic [CNN]

Ah, Community Health Systems, Inc. -- where the dollar is more important than the patient!

One of the hospitals in this area is run by them, IIRC.

...

When is the U.S. going to grow up and do away with for-profit medical services?!

 

[belamyi]

No, national debt just keeps making the bottles bigger.

Until there is no room for them, the material can hold the pressure anymore... or bottle-enlarging simply can't keep up with the pace of debt growth anymore

 

[frankfrank]

When is the U.S. going to grow up and do away with for-profit medical services?!

Like me, R., you're actually old enough to REMEMBER when nearly all, or all, hospitals were indeed nonprofit organizations.

Oh, and KaraBulut, I definitely like the layout of the statistics now, where they also give daily averages.

 

[Kulindahr]

Like me, R., you're actually old enough to REMEMBER when nearly all, or all, hospitals were indeed nonprofit organizations.

They still were when I was first in college. Most were run by churches; the Lutherans, Catholics, Methodists, Presbyterians, and Adventists each had one. The Lutheran one had a nursing school, with a swimming pool in the building that connected the school to the hospital.

 

[KaraBulut]

AWhen is the U.S. going to grow up and do away with for-profit medical services?!

For-profit hospitals exist because:

1. They're allowed to buy out physician practices and then mandate that those employed physicians use their hospital's services exclusively.
2. Until the Affordable Care Act, hospitals were not required to provide estimates of the cost of their services - either to the public or to patients using their services
3. Patients keep opting to use to these for-profit hospitals and doctors.

There's also another phenomenon that muddies the water: for profit healthcare corporations own not-for-profit hospitals. For example, HCA bought not-for-profit hospitals. They also own physician practices in the same markets. The corporate business offices run like for-profit entities, doing aggressive collection from patients who thought they were getting services from a not-for-profit hospital.

 

[belamyi]

Vaccinated international tourists, from nine countries outside the EU, will be allowed to enter Spain starting June 7: Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Israel, Japan , Rwanda, South Korea, Thailand and China. Next Monday, May 24, British travelers will be allowed to enter without a PCR.

 

[belamyi]

- - - Updated - - -

- - - Updated - - -

 

[KaraBulut]

Statisticians have begun looking at world-wide death rates for 2020. They are finding that there were at least 3 million people who died in 2020 that were outside the normal death rate for prior years. Globally, 1.8 million COVID-19 related deaths were reported. That leaves 1.2 million unexplained deaths.

The WHO estimates that COVID-19 deaths may have been under-reported by 40-60%.

While 1,813,188 COVID-19 deaths were reported in 2020, recent WHO estimates suggest an excess mortality of at least 3,000,000.

For 2020, excess mortality attributable to COVID-19 is defined as the difference between the total observed deaths for the year and those expected in the absence of COVID-19. The measure cannot be determined for all countries due to data gaps within some countries.

At the regional level, COVID-19 excess mortality estimates range from 1.34-1.46 million in the Region of the Americas to 1.11-1.21 million in the European Region in 2020. This represents about 60% and 50% more than reported COVID-19 deaths, respectively.

The true death toll of COVID-19 [WHO]

Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19 [IHME]

 

[KaraBulut]

The US reached another milestone with over 60% of the adult population receiving at least 1 dose of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Nine states have reached the 70% milestone: Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Vermont.

Of the 13 states with the lowest vaccination rates , 9 are states in the Deep South: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Tennessee. The other 4 States are: Idaho, Indiana, West Virginia and Wyoming.

An 8th US state just reached a critical Covid-19 vaccination milestone [CNN]

 

[KaraBulut]

Week ending 22-May-2021:

Global COVID-19 Weekly Mortality/Morbidity

• Global Cases reported: 166,436,448 (up from 162,203,982 / 2.6%) - *‬*4,232,466 new cases this week
• Global Deaths: 3,449,371 (up from 3,365,081) - **84,290 people died this week

US COVID-19 Weekly Mortality/Morbidity

• Cases reported in the US - 33,102,724 (up from 32,923,613 / 0.5%), +179,111 new cases, 4.2% of world's new cases were in the US
• Deaths reported in the US - 589,664 deaths, 3,960 deaths this week , 4.7% of the world's deaths this week were in the US
• Approx number of US residents vaccinated - 1st dose: - 162,470,794 (up from 156,217,367 / +12,746,980) - 47.3% of US population
• Approx number of US residents vaccinated - 2nd dose: - 129,006,463 (up from 121,768,268 / +6,253,427) - 36.9% of US population
• Approx number of US doses distributed - 357,250,375 (up from 344,503,395 / +7,238,195) - 78.6% of US doses have been administered

Coronavirus weekly cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• India: 26,289,290 (up from 24,372,907 / +1,916,383 / 7.9%) - 295,525 deaths (+29,318) - avg daily: cases (+273,769) / deaths (+4,188)
• Brazil: 16,047,439 (up from 15,586,534 / +460,905 / 3.0%) - 448,208 deaths (+13,493) - avg daily: cases (+65,844) / deaths (+1,928)
• US: 33,102,724 (up from 32,923,613 / +179,111 / 0.5%) - 589,664 deaths (+3,960) - avg daily: cases (+25,587) / deaths (+566)
• Iran : 2,823,887 (up from 2,739,875 / +84,012 / 3.1%) - 78,381 deaths (+1,748) - avg daily: cases (+12,002) / deaths (+250)
• Turkey: 5,178,648 (up from 5,106,862 / +71,786 / 1.4%) - 46,071 deaths (+1,534) - avg daily: cases (+10,255) / deaths (+219)
• Russia: 4,935,302 (up from 4,875,308 / +59,994 / 1.2%) - 116,144 deaths (+2,603) - avg daily: cases (+8,571) / deaths (+372)
• Germany : 3,653,019 (up from 3,595,872 / +57,147 / 1.6%) - 87,320 deaths (+1,220) - avg daily: cases (+8,164) / deaths (+174)
• France : 5,979,597 (up from 5,925,071 / +54,526 / 0.9%) - 108,345 deaths (+649) - avg daily: cases (+7,789) / deaths (+93)
• Japan: 715,871 (up from 679,870 / +36,001 / 5.3%) - 12,196 deaths (+772) - avg daily: cases (+5,143) / deaths (+110)
• Italy : 4,188,190 (up from 4,153,374 / +34,816 / 0.8%) - 125,153 deaths (+1,090) - avg daily: cases (+4,974) / deaths (+156)
• Canada : 1,363,519 (up from 1,331,480 / +32,039 / 2.4%) - 25,180 deaths (+296) - avg daily: cases (+4,577) / deaths (+42)
• Spain : 3,636,453 (up from 3,604,799 / +31,654 / 0.9%) - 79,620 deaths (+281) - avg daily: cases (+4,522) / deaths (+40)
• Netherlands : 1,649,959 (up from 1,620,702 / +29,257 / 1.8%) - 17,810 deaths (+107) - avg daily: cases (+4,180) / deaths (+15)
• Sweden: 1,058,341 (up from 1,037,126 / +21,215 / 2.0%) - 14,366 deaths (+91) - avg daily: cases (+3,031) / deaths (+13)
• Mexico: 2,395,330 (up from 2,380,690 / +14,640 / 0.6%) - 221,597 deaths (+1,213) - avg daily: cases (+2,091) / deaths (+173)
• Belgium: 1,044,612 (up from 1,030,071 / +14,541 / 1.4%) - 24,809 deaths (+123) - avg daily: cases (+2,077) / deaths (+18)
• UK : 4,476,297 (up from 4,464,663 / +11,634 / 0.3%) - 127,978 deaths (+41) - avg daily: cases (+1,662) / deaths (+6)
• Switzerland : 687,353 (up from 679,510 / +7,843 / 1.2%) - 10,775 deaths (+45) - avg daily: cases (+1,120) / deaths (+6)
• South Korea : 135,344 (up from 131,671 / +3,673 / 2.8%) - 1,926 deaths (+26) - avg daily: cases (+525) / deaths (+4)
• Lebanon: 538,218 (up from 535,446 / +2,772 / 0.5%) - 7,670 deaths (+68) - avg daily: cases (+396) / deaths (+10)
• China: 102,837 (up from 102,717 / +120 / 0.1%) - 4,846 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+17) / deaths (+0)
• Australia : 30,005 (up from 29,975 / +30 / 0.1%) - 910 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+4) / deaths (+0)
• New Zealand: 2,662 (up from 2,646 / +16 / 0.6%) - 26 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+2) / deaths (+0)
• Ireland: 254,870 (up from 254,870 / +0 / 0.0%) - 4,941 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+0) / deaths (+0)

India's reported stats - 26,289,290 cases and 295,525 deaths - are widely believed to be undercounts . At some point, the numbers will be adjusted and the total deaths will probably be 600,000-800,000 people (or possibly more). Even using the case numbers they are reporting- 26,289,29 cases should produce 400,000-525,000 deaths. Epidemiological models estimate that by September, India will have 1.2 million dead.

Germany, Iran, Russia and Turkey also appear to be undercounting cases.

 

[KaraBulut]

And more bad news from India:

What Is 'Black Fungus'? And Why Is It Spreading Among India's COVID Patients? [NPR]

It's called the "black fungus," and it can be deadly. It's also adding to India's growing COVID-19 woes at the moment.

On Sunday, the Indian Council of Medical Research and India's Health Ministry issued an advisory calling for better awareness, screening and management of mucormycosis, a rare but dangerous fungal infection..

Mucormycosis isn't a new disease, Shukla says. It's caused by a group of molds, called mucormycetes. Individuals are infected after inhaling fungal spores found naturally in India's environment and soil. "For most people with a healthy immune system, exposure to the fungus really won't matter," he says. "They won't get sick."

India's current battle with COVID-19 may be brewing many of the complications that are leading to an unprecedented rise in these cases, doctors suggest. India has reported 23 million COVID-19 infections and a death toll of more than 250,000 people, accounting for 1 in 5 active infections worldwide.

 

[cityboy-stl]

Okay....so this is weird.... Bald men are twice as likely to suffer severe Covid, experts warn [The Sun]

At first I thought it was a joke....but then I found this.... Male balding is a major risk factor for severe COVID-19 [NIH.GOV]

So I guess it is true. Geez...what else?

Get vaccinated people.

 

[belamyi]

Recap

 

[Telstra]

Amazing how easily covid spread in the air in the hotel :

 

[KaraBulut]

Some good news about long-term immunity from the vaccines:

Immunity to the Coronavirus May Persist for Years, Scientists Find [NY Times]

Immunity to the coronavirus lasts at least a year, possibly a lifetime, improving over time especially after vaccination, according to two new studies. The findings may help put to rest lingering fears that protection against the virus will be short-lived.

Together, the studies suggest that most people who have recovered from Covid-19 and who were later immunized will not need boosters. Vaccinated people who were never infected most likely will need the shots, however, as will a minority who were infected but did not produce a robust immune response.

Both reports looked at people who had been exposed to the coronavirus about a year earlier. Cells that retain a memory of the virus persist in the bone marrow and may churn out antibodies whenever needed, according to one of the studies, published on Monday in the journal Nature.

The other study, posted online at BioRxiv, a site for biology research, found that these so-called memory B cells continue to mature and strengthen for at least 12 months after the initial infection.