On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[Telstra]

Recap

UK produced four variants out of 8 ? Thats 50% lol

 

[KaraBulut]

UK produced four variants out of 8 ? Thats 50% lol

Variants are named for where they are found, not where they are "produced".

 

[Kulindahr]

Recap

So what's with the U.K. and Brazil? They seem to be potent generators of worrisome mutations!

 

[Kulindahr]

Some good news about long-term immunity from the vaccines:

Immunity to the Coronavirus May Persist for Years, Scientists Find [NY Times]

So I'm going to need boosters. Yay.

 

[belamyi]

So what's with the U.K. and Brazil? They seem to be potent generators of worrisome mutations!

Potent detectors, at least the UK.

 

[KaraBulut]

So I'm going to need boosters. Yay.

Actually, the jury is still out.

There's a post in this thread where there's a discussion that there's two components to immunity- a short term form based upon antibody levels and a long term form based upon "memory cells" that quickly recognize prior invaders. The good news is that the vaccines produce long-term "memory" so that if you are exposed to the virus in the future, your immune system can quickly fight the invader.

The bad news is that because some populations have refused to wear masks and get vaccination, there's a higher risk that new variants will evolve that the vaccines won't cover. If that continues, we're all going to need boosters- much like the annual "flu shot"- to expand our "memory immunity" to include new variants.

 

[KaraBulut]

So what's with the U.K. and Brazil? They seem to be potent generators of worrisome mutations!

Remember a certain orange idiot saying, "Slow the testing down, please"?.

The US generated the most variants because we had the most cases. The US, however, didn't test for variants, so most of the variants we created were never discovered or named... possibly until they showed up in other countries that did test for variants.

 

[KaraBulut]

These are proving to be very successful:


California Vaccine Lottery—How to Sign up for Chance to Win $1.5 Million [Newsweek]

California became the latest state to launch a vaccination lottery scheme on Thursday after Ohio revealed that a 22-year-old had won the state's $1 million vaccine lottery prize.

Governor Gavin Newsom (D) said the "Vax for the Win" program would include $116.5 million worth of incentives, with $100 million in $50 prepaid or grocery cards making up the bulk of the prize fund.

The remaining $16.5 million in the fund will be set aside for cash prizes available to all vaccinated Californians.

Ohio Vax-a-Million Drives Increase in Vaccination Across State [ODH]

Since its announcement May 13, the Vax-a-Million campaign has helped drive an increase in vaccination rates among Ohioans 16 and older by more than 28 percent.

According to Ohio Department of Health data, vaccinations in those ages 16 and older...Increased by 28% for the same age group from May 14 to May 17, the weekend following the announcement of the Vax-a-Million drawings.

$1 million Ohio vaccine lottery winner was on her way to buy a used car when she found out she won [NBC]

 

[belamyi]

These are proving to be very successful:


California Vaccine Lottery—How to Sign up for Chance to Win $1.5 Million [Newsweek]



Ohio Vax-a-Million Drives Increase in Vaccination Across State [ODH]


$1 million Ohio vaccine lottery winner was on her way to buy a used car when she found out she won [NBC]

I wonder about the strategy to follow in an emergency situation in which there is no time to draw a winning number.

 

[KaraBulut]

I wonder about the strategy to follow in an emergency situation in which there is no time to draw a winning number.

Being a pragmatist, I am actually in favor of what the governors are doing.

Here's why:
A bed in an ICU for a patient on a ventilator costs about $11,000 per day. That's just for the room. It doesn't include other treatments like dialysis, nutritional support or medications. COVID-19 patients typically stay in the ICU for 2-4 weeks which can run up a hospital bill that is anywhere from $200,000 to over $1 million dollars.

If paying people to roll up their sleeves to get the vaccine keeps one patient out of the ICU, we've paid for the $1 million lottery.

Ohio's lottery program for children 12 to 17 offered a paid scholarship to a State university of the child's choice. The young man who won the lottery was one of 105,000 kids who were eligible for the lottery because they were fully vaccinated. That's also a good investment.

 

[belamyi]

Being a pragmatist, I am actually in favor of what the governors are doing.

That was not my point: of course you must go for whatever measure it takes to enlarge immunity as much as possible, that is, acting for the welfare of those who did not need any incentive of get vaccinated.
My point is that people who rant about negationists or mere slackers behaving like children do not seem to find it as annoying that the authorities are forced to resort to that sort of measures: that rebel herd is as harmfully stupid after as before the lottery scheme.

 

[KaraBulut]

That was not my point: of course you must go for whatever measure it takes to enlarge immunity as much as possible, that is, acting for the welfare of those who did not need any incentive of get vaccinated.
My point is that people who rant about negationists or mere slackers behaving like children do not seem to find it as annoying that the authorities are forced to resort to that sort of measures: that rebel herd is as harmfully stupid after as before the lottery scheme.

It is one of the rare times that the ends does justify the means.

There was a cartoon in one of the other threads that summed up the reality of the situation. At this point, I think those of us who are rational have accepted that there's about 30% of the population that aren't rational, but for 100% of us to get back to normal, we're going to have to beg, borrow and steal to get the 30% vaccinated.

 

[Kulindahr]

It is one of the rare times that the ends does justify the means.

There was a cartoon in one of the other threads that summed up the reality of the situation. At this point, I think those of us who are rational have accepted that there's about 30% of the population that aren't rational, but for 100% of us to get back to normal, we're going to have to beg, borrow and steal to get the 30% vaccinated.

I heard something on the radio about corporations requiring employees to get vaccinated and a court case challenging that for people who work remotely. Do you know anything about that?

 

[Kulindahr]

Being a pragmatist, I am actually in favor of what the governors are doing.

Here's why:
A bed in an ICU for a patient on a ventilator costs about $11,000 per day. That's just for the room. It doesn't include other treatments like dialysis, nutritional support or medications. COVID-19 patients typically stay in the ICU for 2-4 weeks which can run up a hospital bill that is anywhere from $200,000 to over $1 million dollars.

If paying people to roll up their sleeves to get the vaccine keeps one patient out of the ICU, we've paid for the $1 million lottery.

Ohio's lottery program for children 12 to 17 offered a paid scholarship to a State university of the child's choice. The young man who won the lottery was one of 105,000 kids who were eligible for the lottery because they were fully vaccinated. That's also a good investment.

I know a couple of people who don't plan to get vaccinated, who when they heard about the $1mn lottery idea scoffed: they recognize that the chance of them winning anything is negligible. One said they should have twenty $50k prizes instead and he'd go get his shots because that would be enough money to totally change his life and having twenty times as great a chance to win would be enough to make it worthwhile.

 

[belamyi]

I know a couple of people who don't plan to get vaccinated, who when they heard about the $1mn lottery idea scoffed: they recognize that the chance of them winning anything is negligible. One said they should have twenty $50k prizes instead and he'd go get his shots because that would be enough money to totally change his life and having twenty times as great a chance to win would be enough to make it worthwhile.

Exactly!

 

[KaraBulut]

I heard something on the radio about corporations requiring employees to get vaccinated and a court case challenging that for people who work remotely. Do you know anything about that?

I haven't heard anything about remote employees but the battle is coming:

U.S. agency says employers can mandate COVID-19 vaccination [Reuters]

U.S. companies can mandate that employees in a workplace must be vaccinated against COVID-19, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) said on Friday.

The EEOC, in a statement posted on its website explaining its updated guidance, said employees can be required to be vaccinated as long as employers comply with the reasonable accommodation provisions of the Americans with Disabilities Act and other laws.

In addition, employers may offer incentives to workers to be vaccinated, as long as they are not coercive, it said.

"Can". The uncertainty is "Will they?".

 

[Alistair]

I know a couple of people who don't plan to get vaccinated, who when they heard about the $1mn lottery idea scoffed: they recognize that the chance of them winning anything is negligible. One said they should have twenty $50k prizes instead and he'd go get his shots because that would be enough money to totally change his life and having twenty times as great a chance to win would be enough to make it worthwhile.

But you still have the same odds of winning any one drawing.

 

[KaraBulut]

Week ending 22-May-2021:

Global COVID-19 Weekly Mortality/Morbidity

• Global Cases reported: 169,776,398 (up from 166,436,448 / 2.0%) - *‬*3,339,950 new cases this week
• Global Deaths: 3,529,594 (up from 3,449,371) - **80,223 people died this week

US COVID-19 Weekly Mortality/Morbidity

• Cases reported in the US - 33,251,717 (up from 33,102,724 / 0.5%), +148,993 new cases, 4.5% of world's new cases were in the US
• Deaths reported in the US - 594,304 deaths, 4,640 deaths this week , 5.8% of the world's deaths this week were in the US
• Approx number of US residents vaccinated - 1st dose: - 167,157,043 (up from 162,470,794 / +4,686,249 ) - 50.6% of US population
• Approx number of US residents vaccinated - 2nd dose: - 134,418,748 (up from 129,006,463 / +5,412,285 ) - 40.7% of US population
• Approx number of US doses distributed - 366,314,625 (up from 357,250,375 / +9,064,250) - 80.2% of US doses have been administered

Coronavirus weekly cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• India: 27,729,247 (up from 26,289,290 / +1,439,957 / 5.5%) - 322,512 deaths (+26,987) - avg daily: cases (+205,708) / deaths (+3,855)
• Brazil: 16,471,600 (up from 16,047,439 / +424,161 / 2.6%) - 461,057 deaths (+12,849) - avg daily: cases (+60,594) / deaths (+1,836)
• Argentina: 3,732,263 (up from 3,514,620 / +217,643 / 6.2%) - 77,108 deaths (+3,420) - avg daily: cases (+31,092) / deaths (+489)
• Columbia: 3,363,061 (up from 3,210,787 / +152,274 / 4.7%) - 87,747 deaths (+3,519) - avg daily: cases (+21,753) / deaths (+503)
• US: 33,251,717 (up from 33,102,724 / +148,993 / 0.5%) - 594,304 deaths (+4,640) - avg daily: cases (+21,285) / deaths (+663)
• Iran : 2,893,218 (up from 2,823,887 / +69,331 / 2.5%) - 79,741 deaths (+1,360) - avg daily: cases (+9,904) / deaths (+194)
• Russia: 4,995,613 (up from 4,935,302 / +60,311 / 1.2%) - 118,781 deaths (+2,637) - avg daily: cases (+8,616) / deaths (+377)
• Turkey: 5,235,978 (up from 5,178,648 / +57,330 / 1.1%) - 47,271 deaths (+1,200) - avg daily: cases (+8,190) / deaths (+171)
• Spain : 3,668,658 (up from 3,636,453 / +32,205 / 0.9%) - 79,905 deaths (+285) - avg daily: cases (+4,601) / deaths (+41)
• Germany : 3,684,672 (up from 3,653,019 / +31,653 / 0.9%) - 88,379 deaths (+1,059) - avg daily: cases (+4,522) / deaths (+151)
• Japan: 742,515 (up from 715,871 / +26,644 / 3.7%) - 12,877 deaths (+681) - avg daily: cases (+3,806) / deaths (+97)
• Italy : 4,213,055 (up from 4,188,190 / +24,865 / 0.6%) - 126,002 deaths (+849) - avg daily: cases (+3,552) / deaths (+121)
• Netherlands : 1,671,967 (up from 1,649,959 / +22,008 / 1.3%) - 17,889 deaths (+79) - avg daily: cases (+3,144) / deaths (+11)
• Canada : 1,384,373 (up from 1,363,519 / +20,854 / 1.5%) - 25,451 deaths (+271) - avg daily: cases (+2,979) / deaths (+39)
• UK : 4,496,823 (up from 4,476,297 / +20,526 / 0.5%) - 128,037 deaths (+59) - avg daily: cases (+2,932) / deaths (+8)
• Belgium: 1,059,763 (up from 1,044,612 / +15,151 / 1.5%) - 24,921 deaths (+112) - avg daily: cases (+2,164) / deaths (+16)
• Mexico: 2,408,778 (up from 2,395,330 / +13,448 / 0.6%) - 223,072 deaths (+1,475) - avg daily: cases (+1,921) / deaths (+211)
• Sweden: 1,068,473 (up from 1,058,341 / +10,132 / 1.0%) - 14,451 deaths (+85) - avg daily: cases (+1,447) / deaths (+12)
• Switzerland : 693,023 (up from 687,353 / +5,670 / 0.8%) - 10,805 deaths (+30) - avg daily: cases (+810) / deaths (+4)
• South Korea : 139,910 (up from 135,344 / +4,566 / 3.4%) - 1,957 deaths (+31) - avg daily: cases (+652) / deaths (+4)
• Lebanon: 540,132 (up from 538,218 / +1,914 / 0.4%) - 7,718 deaths (+48) - avg daily: cases (+273) / deaths (+7)
• China: 102,960 (up from 102,837 / +123 / 0.1%) - 4,846 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+18) / deaths (+0)
• Australia : 30,096 (up from 30,005 / +91 / 0.3%) - 910 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+13) / deaths (+0)
• New Zealand: 2,672 (up from 2,662 / +10 / 0.4%) - 26 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+1) / deaths (+0)
• Ireland: 254,870 (unchanged from 254,870 / +0 / 0.0%) - 4,941 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+0) / deaths (+0)
• France : 5,719,877 (up from 5,979,597 / -259,720 / -4.3%) - 109,518 deaths (+1,173) - avg daily: cases (-37,103) / deaths (+168)

 

[belamyi]

But you still have the same odds of winning any one drawing.

Right, just like you, me and anyone falling naked off a plane flying over the Himalayas are all just as mortal.

 

[KaraBulut]

A few notes about this week's statistics.

• India had 1.4 million people who tested positive last week. They reported that 27,000 deaths. I exchanged emails with a friend in India who said he and his family have been in lockdown for 3 weeks. The healthcare system is overwhelmed and the general consensus is that the real numbers in India are probably 4-5 times higher than what they are reporting. Why? Like many countries, India is undertesting. See linked article below.
• I added Argentina and Columbia to the report this week. The variants that have developed in Brazil have spread across South America. The Brazilian variant is unique in that the natural immunity that people who had COVID-19 in the past year doesn't provide complete immunity to the Brazilian P.1 variant. Because of this, and the low vaccination rates in South America, Argentina, Chile and Columbia are seeing an explosion of cases that is overwhelming their healthcare systems.
• China distributed their vaccines in South America and across Asia. Statistics vary but it appears that the Chinese vaccines provide only 50-70% immunity compared to the >90% effectiveness of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.
• Developed countries should expect a 1-2% mortality, that is about 1-2% of people diagnosed with COVID-19 are expected to die. Many countries like Mexico are reporting much higher mortality. Mexico has reported 2.4 million cases and 223,072 - a 9.3% mortality rate. This hints at two problems: Mexico is not testing enough people and their healthcare system is not able to save those who develop life-threatening consequences of COVID-19.
• US vaccination rates have declined. At their peak, the US was delivering about nearly 2 million first doses per day. This week, only 4.6 million people got their first dose (about 670,000 per day).
• France made a one-time adjustment to their case numbers to eliminate people who had been double-counted which reduced their numbers by an estimated 350,000 cases.

Why number of COVID cases in India is exponentially higher than reported [ABC7]
Are China’s Covid Shots Less Effective? Experts Size Up Sinovac [Bloomberg]
Latin America Believed in Chinese Vaccines. Now It May Have Reason to Rethink. [The Diplomat]
Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries [The Economist]