On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[frankfrank]

But the odds basically don’t change from one drawing to the next (other than the people that are added in as they get vaccinated so your odds actually get worse as you go)

as for your example each drawing your odds are still 1 in 1000 not 20 in 1000

The difference is that if 20 people are going to win $50,000 (in a revised system that is not actually being used, but should be), by definition there HAVE TO be twenty drawings. Without all of the 20 drawings, some of the mandated $50,000 prizes go unclaimed. With your one COVID entry, there would be 20 chances for you to win one of the fifty-kays with your given number.

However, in the concept of mathematical expectation, which is something (one of the FEW things) I retained from college Probability and Statistics class 52 or 53 years ago, if there are 500,000 entries in this particular prize phase (whether it's one/$1 million or twenty/$50,000) your mathematical expectation is $2. It's the average of all of the payouts in one specific group of events, the total payouts divided by the number of entries/items. Either way, a total of $1 million is paid out.

 

[KaraBulut]

Variants are named for where they are found, not where they are "produced".

Update: The WHO has decided to implement a new naming system so that place names are not used when naming the variant.

WHO's new naming system for coronavirus variants uses Greek alphabet [CNN]

The World Health Organization said on Monday that it has assigned new "labels" to key coronavirus variants so the public can refer to them by letters of the Greek alphabet instead of where the variant was first detected.

 

[Kulindahr]

The first sentence is contradictory. The odds DO change from one drawing to the next as well as get worse with more entrants. Assuming one prize, the odds are 1 in the-number-of-tickets-in-the-pot. The odds of your individual ticket being selected varies with the total number in the drawing. It could 1 in 1,000. It could be 1 in 10,000. Or it could be 1 in 10. It's not the same as an actual Lottery where the winning numbers are independent of the tickets; in that case your individual odds are always the same regardless of how many tickets there are.

If they were giving 20 prizes, we know there will be 20 winners in the Raffle. At the first drawing there already exists 20 winners sitting there in that pot of 1,000 tickets. Therefore, the odds of your individual ticket being selected are 20 in 1,000 - or statistically 1 in 50 tickets in that pot of 1,000, is a winner. Or if you want to think of it this way - 1 in 1000 - 20 times.

Yes. It's no different than drawing cards from a deck: if you draw one card, the odds of it being the ace of hearts is one in fifty-two, but if you draw four cards the odds of you drawing an ace is four in fifty-two.

 

[Telstra]

The US is still the hardest hit in the world, the media seems to ignore it now:
Cases reported in the US - 33,251,717 (up from 33,102,724 / 0.5%), +148,993 new cases, 4.5% of world's new cases were in the US
Deaths reported in the US - 594,304 deaths, 4,640 deaths this week , 5.8% of the world's deaths this week were in the US

 

[Alistair]

Yes. It's no different than drawing cards from a deck: if you draw one card, the odds of it being the ace of hearts is one in fifty-two, but if you draw four cards the odds of you drawing an ace is four in fifty-two.

But your name is only in the drawing once. Not four times. So the odds are 1 not 4.

 

[Kulindahr]

But your name is only in the drawing once. Not four times. So the odds are 1 not 4.

There aren't any names on cards.

And if four names get drawn at once, that's four draws that could come up with your name.

 

[Kulindahr]

But your name is only in the drawing once. Not four times. So the odds are 1 not 4.

There aren't any names on cards.

And if four names get drawn at once, that's four draws that could come up with your name.

 

[belamyi]

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Since the thread is already half-derailed...

 

[KaraBulut]

The sidebar about lottery versus raffle started a week ago.

Meanwhile, there were 2,668,925 new cases of COVID-19 worldwide with 178,642 deaths.

The US administered 5,415,472 doses of vaccine in that time.

 

[KaraBulut]

News from the vaccine lottery/raffle front:

First 15 winners of $50,000 California vaccine lottery prizes drawn Friday [ABC30]

California selected the first 15 winners of a $50,000 grand prize as part of the state's "Vax for the Win" program on Friday.

Gov. Gavin Newsom and others selected 15 unique numbers that through a complex and confidential system represented 15 Californians who have gotten a COVID-19 vaccine. Those winners will be contacted directly.

Weld County health care worker is Colorado’s first $1 million vaccine lottery winner [Denver Post]

A health care worker from Weld County won the first $1 million drawing in Colorado’s vaccine lottery, and urged those who haven’t been immunized against COVID-19 to get the shot now.

Sally Sliger, of Mead, said she got vaccinated in April so her family could get back to gathering for birthdays and other celebrations. Winning the lottery was a “surreal” bonus, and she and her husband will use the money to pay off their sons’ student loans and take care of some home projects, she said...

The state will draw four additional winners over the next four weeks. A separate drawing, for kids ages 12 to 17 who’ve been vaccinated, will chose 25 winners who each will receive a $50,000 college scholarship. People who want to be eligible for next week’s drawings need to get their first shot by Sunday.

 

[belamyi]

Only in the land of opportunity and wealth creation: how a plague can turn into raffles and lotteries.

 

[KaraBulut]

Week ending 5-Jun-2021:

Global COVID-19 Weekly Mortality/Morbidity

• Global Cases reported: 172,851,292 (up from 169,776,398 / 1.8%) - *‬*3,074,894 new cases this week
• Global Deaths: 3,718,190 (up from 3,529,594) - **188,596 people died this week

US COVID-19 Weekly Mortality/Morbidity

• Cases reported in the US - 33,356,537 (up from 33,251,717 / 0.3%), +104,820 new cases, 3.4% of world's new cases were in the US
• Deaths reported in the US - 597,365 deaths, 3,061 deaths this week , 1.6% of the world's deaths this week were in the US
• Approx number of US residents vaccinated - 1st dose: - 300,268,730 (up from 293,705,050 / +6,563,680) - 51.60% of US population
• Approx number of US residents vaccinated - 2nd dose: - 138,112,702 (up from 134,418,748 / +3,693,954) - 41.85% of US population
• Approx number of US doses distributed - 371,520,975 (up from 366,314,625 / +5,206,350) - 80.8% of US doses have been administered

Coronavirus weekly cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• India: 28,694,879 (up from 27,729,247 / +965,632 / 3.5%) - 344,082 deaths (+21,570) - avg daily: cases (+137,947) / deaths (+3,081)
• Brazil: 16,907,425 (up from 16,471,600 / +435,825 / 2.6%) - 472,531 deaths (+11,474) - avg daily: cases (+62,261) / deaths (+1,639)
• Argentina: 3,939,024 (up from 3,732,263 / +206,761 / 5.5%) - 80,867 deaths (+3,759) - avg daily: cases (+29,537) / deaths (+537)
• Columbia: 3,547,017 (up from 3,363,061 / +183,956 / 5.5%) - 91,422 deaths (+3,675) - avg daily: cases (+26,279) / deaths (+525)
• US: 33,356,537 (up from 33,251,717 / +104,820 / 0.3%) - 597,365 deaths (+3,061) - avg daily: cases (+14,974) / deaths (+437)
• Iran : 2,960,751 (up from 2,893,218 / +67,533 / 2.3%) - 80,941 deaths (+1,200) - avg daily: cases (+9,648) / deaths (+171)
• Russia: 5,058,221 (up from 4,995,613 / +62,608 / 1.3%) - 121,365 deaths (+2,584) - avg daily: cases (+8,944) / deaths (+369)
• France : 5,769,291 (up from 5,719,877 / +49,414 / 0.9%) - 110,135 deaths (+617) - avg daily: cases (+7,059) / deaths (+88)
• Turkey: 5,282,594 (up from 5,235,978 / +46,616 / 0.9%) - 48,068 deaths (+797) - avg daily: cases (+6,659) / deaths (+114)
• UK : 4,527,577 (up from 4,496,823 / +30,754 / 0.7%) - 128,099 deaths (+62) - avg daily: cases (+4,393) / deaths (+9)
• Spain : 3,697,981 (up from 3,668,658 / +29,323 / 0.8%) - 80,196 deaths (+291) - avg daily: cases (+4,189) / deaths (+42)
• Germany : 3,706,934 (up from 3,684,672 / +22,262 / 0.6%) - 89,203 deaths (+824) - avg daily: cases (+3,180) / deaths (+118)
• Mexico: 2,429,631 (up from 2,408,778 / +20,853 / 0.9%) - 228,568 deaths (+5,496) - avg daily: cases (+2,979) / deaths (+785)
• Japan: 760,942 (up from 742,515 / +18,427 / 2.5%) - 13,481 deaths (+604) - avg daily: cases (+2,632) / deaths (+86)
• Italy : 4,230,153 (up from 4,213,055 / +17,098 / 0.4%) - 126,472 deaths (+470) - avg daily: cases (+2,443) / deaths (+67)
• Netherlands : 1,688,916 (up from 1,671,967 / +16,949 / 1.0%) - 17,949 deaths (+60) - avg daily: cases (+2,421) / deaths (+9)
• Canada : 1,398,716 (up from 1,384,373 / +14,343 / 1.0%) - 25,686 deaths (+235) - avg daily: cases (+2,049) / deaths (+34)
• Sweden: 1,078,062 (up from 1,068,473 / +9,589 / 0.9%) - 14,523 deaths (+72) - avg daily: cases (+1,370) / deaths (+10)
• Ireland: 263,769 (up from 254,870 / +8,899 / 3.5%) - 4,941 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+1,271) / deaths (+0)
• Belgium: 1,068,406 (up from 1,059,763 / +8,643 / 0.8%) - 25,014 deaths (+93) - avg daily: cases (+1,235) / deaths (+13)
• Switzerland : 697,292 (up from 693,023 / +4,269 / 0.6%) - 10,832 deaths (+27) - avg daily: cases (+610) / deaths (+4)
• South Korea : 143,596 (up from 139,910 / +3,686 / 2.6%) - 1,971 deaths (+14) - avg daily: cases (+527) / deaths (+2)
• Lebanon: 541,423 (up from 540,132 / +1,291 / 0.2%) - 7,758 deaths (+40) - avg daily: cases (+184) / deaths (+6)
• China: 103,120 (up from 102,960 / +160 / 0.2%) - 4,846 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+23) / deaths (+0)
• Australia : 30,166 (up from 30,096 / +70 / 0.2%) - 910 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+10) / deaths (+0)
• New Zealand: 2,682 (up from 2,672 / +10 / 0.4%) - 26 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+1) / deaths (+0)

 

[Kulindahr]

News from the vaccine lottery/raffle front:

First 15 winners of $50,000 California vaccine lottery prizes drawn Friday [ABC30]

Maybe that's where the guy I wrote about got the idea of multiple $50,000 winners rather than one $1m winner.

 

[Kulindahr]

Only in the land of opportunity and wealth creation: how a plague can turn into raffles and lotteries.

When more people play their state lottery games than bother to vote, it's not surprising.

 

[belamyi]

When more people play their state lottery games than bother to vote, it's not surprising.

Obviously: the poor have plenty of reasons to have more faith in God and Luck than in and votes and law.

Which means that they have a problem with faith: not with where they put it, but with having any at all

 

[Araucaria]

Obviously: the poor have plenty of reasons to have more faith in God and Luck than in and votes and law.

Which means that they have a problem with faith: not with where they put it, but with having any at all

So, people don't have faith in elections and government. Maybe their experience has taught them there is good reason for them to feel that way...

 

[belamyi]

So, people don't have faith in elections and government. Maybe their experience has taught them there is good reason for them to feel that way...

Exactly.

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How come 30-40% of the voting population consistently abstain from voting in so many "democracies", then the other 70-60% believe all will go just fine...

That is the sort of thing that people love to consider in hindsight to issue very peremptory and "obvious" remarks about what was going on, and where and how it all was going to end... you know, when they speak about XVIIIth century France, or about...

 

[belamyi]

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[KaraBulut]

As a strange byproduct of the masks and the lockdowns, we may have at least one strain of influenza that has gone extinct.

Influenza B is only known to infect humans and seals. If one of the lineages of Influenza B were to be eradicated from humans, it could be considered extinct.

2 types of flu viruses may have gone extinct [Live Science]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, flu cases dropped to historic lows — a phenomenon experts attribute to mask wearing and other precautions to combat the novel coronavirus.

Interestingly, two types of flu viruses haven't shown up on anyone's radar for a year, meaning there have been no reported cases of these viruses anywhere in the world, STAT reported. Experts don't yet know if these types have gone extinct, but if so, officials could have an easier time picking the strains of flu viruses included in the seasonal flu shot, STAT reported...

One clade of H3N2, known as 3c3.A, hasn't been detected since March 2020. The same is true of the lineage B/Yamagata, according to STAT.

"I think it has a decent chance that it's gone. But the world's a big place," Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, told STAT, referring to the H3N2 clade.

Florian Krammer, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine Mount Sinai in New York, shared similar thoughts about the B/Yamagata lineage. "Just because nobody saw it doesn't mean it has disappeared completely, right? But it could" have disappeared, Krammer told STAT.

 

[belamyi]

I finally had a first Pfizer today...