On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[belamyi]

Actually, the left arm feels more like

 

[KaraBulut]

I finally had a first Pfizer today...

It will be one of the few experiences in your life where the first time was easiest. Plan a day of leisure and naps for your second dose.

 

[belamyi]

 

[KaraBulut]

News from places that have their act together...

Seattle has fully vaccinated 70% of residents 12 and older, mayor says [CNN]

Seattle, Washington, has fully vaccinated 70% of residents ages 12 and older, Mayor Jenny Durkan announced Wednesday.

Seventy-eight percent of Seattle residents 12 years old and older have started the vaccination process but are not yet fully vaccinated. Seattle has administered more than 249,000 vaccines to more than 131,000 people, according to a news release.

Covid-19 rates and deaths in Seattle and King County are falling, the release stated. In King County, an estimated 95% of all new Covid-19 cases are in people who have not started vaccinations, it added.

Will San Francisco really be the first U.S. city to reach herd immunity? [San Francisco Chronicle]

San Francisco’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign is nearing the key benchmark of 70% of eligible residents fully vaccinated — which some experts say puts the city on track to be the first in the U.S. to reach herd immunity.

The city’s vaccine tracker showed that as of Wednesday, 79% of residents 12 and older had received at least one vaccine dose, and 69% were fully vaccinated.

Bob Wachter, chair of UCSF's Department of Medicine, tweeted on Tuesday that with San Francisco reporting about 12 new cases per day...

 

[belamyi]

^ What a surprise: the everlasting 'weirdos' abd 'outsiders' of America

 

[KaraBulut]

Variants of Concern in the US:

• B.1.1.7 - Alpha (formerly UK variant) - 69.2% of tested cases
• P.1 - Gamma (formerly Brazilian variant) - 8.1% of tested cases

Variants of Interest in the US:

• B.1.526* - Iota (formerly NYC variant) - 9.9% of tested cases
• B.1.617.2 - Delta (formerly India variant) - 2.5% of tested cases (UK reports 91% of new cases are Delta)
• B.1.525 - Eta** - 0.1% of tested cases

*In NYC, B.1.526 accounts for 23.8% of tested cases.
**B.1.525 eludes natural immunity, so people with prior infections may not be immune to the variant.

Source

 

[KaraBulut]

Week ending 12-Jun-2021:

Global COVID-19 Weekly Mortality/Morbidity

• Global Cases reported: 175,729,802 (up from 172,851,292 / %1.7) - *‬*2,878,510 new cases this week
• Global Deaths: 3,796,726 (up from 3,718,190) - **78,536 people died this week

US COVID-19 Weekly Mortality/Morbidity

• Cases reported in the US - 33,457,934 (up from 33,356,537 / 0.3%), +101,397 new cases, 3.5% of world's new cases were in the US
• Deaths reported in the US - 599,676 deaths, 2,311 deaths this week , 2.9% of the world's deaths this week were in the US
• Approx number of US residents vaccinated - 1st dose: - 173,391,711 (up from 170,272,150 / +3,119,561) - 52.54% of US population
• Approx number of US residents vaccinated 2nd dose - 143,119,077 (up from 138,112,702 / +5,006,375) - 43.37% of US population
• Approx number of US doses distributed - 308,112,728 (up from 300,268,730 / +7,843,998 ) - 82.3% of US doses have been administered

Coronavirus weekly cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• India: 29,439,989 (up from 28,694,879 / +745,110 / 2.6%) - 370,384 deaths (+26,302) - avg daily: cases (+106,444) / deaths (+3,757)
• Brazil: 17,374,818 (up from 16,907,425 / +467,393 / 2.8%) - 486,272 deaths (+13,741) - avg daily: cases (+66,770) / deaths (+1,963)
• Columbia: 3,724,705 (up from 3,547,017 / +177,688 / 5.0%) - 95,192 deaths (+3,770) - avg daily: cases (+25,384) / deaths (+539)
• Argentina: 4,111,147 (up from 3,939,024 / +172,123 / 4.4%) - 85,075 deaths (+4,208) - avg daily: cases (+24,589) / deaths (+601)
• US: 33,457,934 (up from 33,356,537 / +101,397 / 0.3%) - 599,676 deaths (+2,311) - avg daily: cases (+14,485) / deaths (+330)
• Russia: 5,148,499 (up from 5,058,221 / +90,278 / 1.8%) - 124,314 deaths (+2,949) - avg daily: cases (+12,897) / deaths (+421)
• Iran : 3,028,717 (up from 2,960,751 / +67,966 / 2.3%) - 82,098 deaths (+1,157) - avg daily: cases (+9,709) / deaths (+165)
• UK : 4,574,447 (up from 4,527,577 / +46,870 / 1.0%) - 128,160 deaths (+61) - avg daily: cases (+6,696) / deaths (+9)
• Turkey: 5,325,435 (up from 5,282,594 / +42,841 / 0.8%) - 48,668 deaths (+600) - avg daily: cases (+6,120) / deaths (+86)
• Spain : 3,733,600 (up from 3,697,981 / +35,619 / 1.0%) - 80,501 deaths (+305) - avg daily: cases (+5,088) / deaths (+44)
• France : 5,799,459 (up from 5,769,291 / +30,168 / 0.5%) - 110,540 deaths (+405) - avg daily: cases (+4,310) / deaths (+58)
• Mexico: 2,452,469 (up from 2,429,631 / +22,838 / 0.9%) - 230,097 deaths (+1,529) - avg daily: cases (+3,263) / deaths (+218)
• Germany : 3,723,320 (up from 3,706,934 / +16,386 / 0.4%) - 89,839 deaths (+636) - avg daily: cases (+2,341) / deaths (+91)
• Japan: 775,624 (up from 760,942 / +14,682 / 1.9%) - 14,023 deaths (+542) - avg daily: cases (+2,097) / deaths (+77)
• Italy : 4,243,482 (up from 4,230,153 / +13,329 / 0.3%) - 126,976 deaths (+504) - avg daily: cases (+1,904) / deaths (+72)
• Netherlands : 1,699,213 (up from 1,688,916 / +10,297 / 0.6%) - 17,987 deaths (+38) - avg daily: cases (+1,471) / deaths (+5)
• Canada : 1,408,490 (up from 1,398,716 / +9,774 / 0.7%) - 25,883 deaths (+197) - avg daily: cases (+1,396) / deaths (+28)
• Belgium: 1,075,765 (up from 1,068,406 / +7,359 / 0.7%) - 25,081 deaths (+67) - avg daily: cases (+1,051) / deaths (+10)
• Sweden: 1,083,456 (up from 1,078,062 / +5,394 / 0.5%) - 14,574 deaths (+51) - avg daily: cases (+771) / deaths (+7)
• South Korea : 147,874 (up from 143,596 / +4,278 / 3.0%) - 1,985 deaths (+14) - avg daily: cases (+611) / deaths (+2)
• Switzerland : 700,051 (up from 697,292 / +2,759 / 0.4%) - 10,859 deaths (+27) - avg daily: cases (+394) / deaths (+4)
• Ireland: 266,489 (up from 263,769 / +2,720 / 1.0%) - 4,941 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+389) / deaths (+0)
• Lebanon: 542,375 (up from 541,423 / +952 / 0.2%) - 7,790 deaths (+32) - avg daily: cases (+136) / deaths (+5)
• China: 103,359 (up from 103,120 / +239 / 0.2%) - 4,846 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+34) / deaths (+0)
• Australia : 30,248 (up from 30,166 / +82 / 0.3%) - 910 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+12) / deaths (+0)
• New Zealand: 2,708 (up from 2,682 / +26 / 1.0%) - 26 deaths (+0) - avg daily: cases (+4) / deaths (+0)

 

[KaraBulut]

A few comments:

• The US remains #1 in total number of cases - 33,457,934 people tested positive in the US - over 10% of the US population.
• In the US, daily cases have dropped from 25,587 the week of 22-May to 14,485 last week. Daily cases were 199,048 on 20-Jan, the day Trump was removed from office.
• US daily deaths are down from 566 the week of 22-May to 330 last week. On 20-Jan, daily deaths were 4,415. It's still important to keep in mind that 2,311 died last week in the US. That can greatly be reduced if people would get vaccinated. Only 43.37% of the population is fully vaccinated.
• Statistics from India remain underreported. The lockdowns in India have helped reduced their reported cases from 1,916,383 the week of 22-May to 745,110 last week. Reported deaths in India have remained flat - between 3,000 to 4,000 deaths are reported daily in India.
• The other big hot spot in the world is South America. The out-of-control cases in Brazil have spread to nearby countries. Immunization rates remain low and many South American countries have been administering Chinese vaccines that have shows to be only 50-70% effective against most strains of SARS-CoV-2.

 

[Telstra]

I am keep an eye on the US because,
it is or it can be the world's problems

Cases reported in the US - 33,457,934 (up from 33,356,537 / 0.3%), +101,397 new cases,

 

[rareboy]

A few comments:

• The US remains #1 in total number of cases - 33,457,934 people tested positive in the US - over 10% of the US population.
• In the US, daily cases have dropped from 25,587 the week of 22-May to 14,485 last week. Daily cases were 199,048 on 20-Jan, the day Trump was removed from office.
• US daily deaths are down from 566 the week of 22-May to 330 last week. On 20-Jan, daily deaths were 4,415. It's still important to keep in mind that 2,311 died last week in the US. That can greatly be reduced if people would get vaccinated. Only 43.37% of the population is fully vaccinated.
• Statistics from India remain underreported. The lockdowns in India have helped reduced their reported cases from 1,916,383 the week of 22-May to 745,110 last week. Reported deaths in India have remained flat - between 3,000 to 4,000 deaths are reported daily in India.
• The other big hot spot in the world is South America. The out-of-control cases in Brazil have spread to nearby countries. Immunization rates remain low and many South American countries have been administering Chinese vaccines that have shows to be only 50-70% effective against most strains of SARS-CoV-2.

I despair.

The US. Brazil. India.

It was all too easy to predict.

 

[KaraBulut]

I despair.

The US. Brazil. India.

It was all too easy to predict.

I mentioned this in an earlier post. India had locked down last year and their case load had been under control. What changed? Modi is up for re-election. He encouraged religious gatherings. He held massive rallies for his supporters. He didn't plan for the vaccine and he didn't prepare the healthcare system for outbreaks.

Sound familiar?

The US is doing as well as can be expected. Immunity among people over age 12 is probably going to fall short of the 70% goal that Biden proposed for 4-July, but only by a few percentage points.

There's a book that will be released this week that should be very interesting:
Preventable: The Inside Story of How Leadership Failures, Politics, and Selfishness Doomed the U.S. Coronavirus Response

There is still a problem with Republican governors who refuse to allow employers and private companies to mandate masks and vaccinations. Florida and Texas are still running about 11,000-13,000 new cases per week- over 20% of the cases in the US.

Meanwhile, the gay bars in those Republican States are open, packed to the gills and of course, masks are nowhere to be found.

 

[belamyi]

 

[KaraBulut]

^I'd be curious to see that next to the vaccination rate numbers.

 

[belamyi]

^I'd be curious to see that next to the vaccination rate numbers.

26% fully vaccinated, 41,5% have received one dose. More or less the same rate for the whole Catalonia region, and for the whole of Spain. Yeah, yeah, it's not spectacular but, still, due to the satisfactory pace of vaccination, the regional Catalan government seem quite optimist about reaching the 70%, scheduled by Moncloa for August, several weeks earlier, but we would be happy if it all went just as planned, and the feared big Fifth Wave (Sixth over here), with the Δ variant ravaging the adults under 30, would not start until the end of summer, or early autumn.

 

[belamyi]

https://www.vacunacovid.gob.es/

 

[KaraBulut]

26% fully vaccinated, 41,5% have received one dose. More or less the same rate for the whole Catalonia region, and for the whole of Spain. Yeah, yeah, it's not spectacular but, still, due to the satisfactory pace of vaccination, the regional Catalan government seem quite optimist about reaching the 70%, scheduled by Moncloa for August, several weeks earlier, but we would be happy if it all went just as planned, and the feared big Fifth Wave (Sixth over here), with the Δ variant ravaging the adults under 30, would not start until the end of summer, or early autumn.

What vaccines are they using?

 

[belamyi]

What vaccines are they using?

As many as they can... there was that glitch with the AZ, and that lowered the rate among the 60ers, and 50ers I think too, but in the past couple of weeks they have been catching up rather quickly. For the above-70 and, starting this month, "non-essential" (superfluous luxuries like yours truly) under-50, mainly the Pfizer one, also the Moderna, and very recently the Janssen too: that one used mainly on the homeless, soccer stars and that sort of people who need one-off jab jobs.

The AZ has been used on [some] of the considered essential workers, and the younger older-farters ("middle-aged") under 70 and above 49.

 

[KaraBulut]

As many as they can... there was that glitch with the AZ, and that lowered the rate among the 60ers, and 50ers I think too, but in the past couple of weeks they have been catching up rather quickly. For the above-70 and, starting this month, "non-essential" (superfluous luxuries like yours truly) under-50, mainly the Pfizer one, also the Moderna, and very recently the Janssen too: that one used mainly on the homeless, soccer stars and that sort of people who need one-off jab jobs.

The AZ has been used on [some] of the considered essential workers, and the younger older-farters ("middle-aged") under 70 and above 49.

They may dodge the bullet if they're giving Pfizer and Moderna to their highest risk population (i.e. the elderly and infirm).

The studies of Pfizer and Moderna against the original SARS-CoV-2 showed that risk of infection dropped by 50% within the first 10 days after the first shot. By day 21 (when the boost dose is given), efficacy was nearly 90%. The Delta (India) variant studies are incomplete but the estimates are about 80% efficacy for people who are fully vaccinated (compared to 95% efficacy on the original Alpha virus).

The bad news? The dominant variant in the US is the B.1.1.7 (UK) variant. The Delta variant is doubling every two weeks, so they're estimating that the US numbers for next week will probably be somewhere near 10%. In the UK, Delta is already 91% of cases.

Delta seems to double the risk of hospitalization, so all those anti-vaxxers running around are ensuring that the Delta variant is going to become dominant variant which means more people getting sick (because of the lower vaccine efficacy) and it means that the hospitals aren't going to get a break this summer. It also means that we may end up getting a booster to increase coverage for variants in the Fall/Winter.

 

[belamyi]

^ That was the strategy behind the decision: the overwhelming majority of severe cases and deaths were among the elderly, particularly in residences... our Willa Shakespeare received her shot the last days of 2020, and when the vaccination started to speed up, by February, the rate of infections and deaths fell as sharply as you indicated.

If the older-farters like us manage to "dodge the bullet" this summer, the bad news will be, it is feared, for those younger ones who will not be vaccinated in time... the Erasmus students are planned to be immunized before being thrown to the world out there in September, and the school kids too, but the younger adults seizing the day...

 

[belamyi]

Just in case anyone is interested...