From the article:
The 2012 approach treats white voters without college degrees as an unattainable cohort. The Democratic goal with these voters is to keep Republican winning margins to manageable levels, in the 12 to 15 percent range, as opposed to the 30-point margin of 2010 — a level at which even solid wins among minorities and other constituencies are not enough to produce Democratic victories.
I haven't read much of the article; but I'm thinking it's not revelatory as
Lostlover seems to think.
Comparing 2010 is misleading because you can see a good 31% to 40% of the electorate, from a presidential just two years earlier, not participate in voting for the congressional midterm elections. In my home state of Michigan, over 5 million votes were cast in the presidential election of 2008; two years later, 3 million participated for the 2010 midterms.
From Chuck Todd's and Sheldon Gawiser's How Barack Obama Won: A State-by-State Guide to the Historic 2008 Presidential Election
, is exit polling info on that 2008 presidential. Worth reviewing:
WHITE VOTERS, NO COLLEGE DEGREE
2004 (34): George W. Bush (R), 61% | John Kerry (D), 38%
2008 (39): John McCain (R), 58% | Barack Obama (D), 40%
WHITE VOTERS, COLLEGE DEGREE
2004 (43): George W. Bush (R), 55% | John Kerry (D), 44%
2008 (35): John McCain (R), 51% | Barack Obama (D), 47%
WHITE VOTERS, BY GENDER
2004 Males (36): George W. Bush (R), 62% | John Kerry (D), 37%
2004 Females (41): George W. Bush (R), 55% | John Kerry (D), 44%
2008 Males (36): John McCain (R), 57% | Barack Obama (D), 41%
2008 Females (39): John McCain (R), 53% | Barack Obama (D), 46%
PRESIDENTIAL VOTE
2004: *George W. Bush (R), 50.73% (286) | John Kerry (D), 48.27% (251/252)
2008: John McCain (R), 45.66% (173) | *Barack Obama (D), 52.92% (365)
What is important to note is that "White Voters, No College Degree" overperform how Republicans fare nationally. But not only that, whites (generally) overperform with how the GOP fares nationally.
(
Also noteworthy: Whites are in decline. Now, it's no mystery why Republican leaders in states are aiming to suppress the vote.)
This stuff really doesn't escape that common thread that ties all demographics:
shifts.
Voting shifts.