Canadian Leader Shuts Parliment to Keep Power

[Kurn]

Where are General Claire and General Jenny when we need them most?

Canada!

 

[Aaron]

(Sorry for the length.)

People need to stop treating this as more than it is. This wasn't a constitutional crisis, it wasn't chaos, it wasn't turmoil, and it certainly wasn't a mistake. It was a calculated and politically motivated move.

And that's not chaos, it's not even crisis; it's politics, and nothing more.

The masses (including a lot of people who have registered their opinions here) need to see the big picture. This was never about the $30 million cut to public funding of parties for Harper. Anyone who is blinded by the media enough to believe that needs to stop kidding themselves and open their eyes. Stephen Harper knew that his economic update would be defeated if he included that cut, and in fact he bet on it.

Look at the BIG picture. Stephen Harper ran on a campaign of "no deficit, everything will be fine" as was required by the political doctrine of his party, the bulk of the old-school Tory voting base, and the "Capital-C Conservative" centre of power inside the party. Towards the very end of the campaign, and early afterwards, the economy worsens again, but it is too late for Harper to change his tune. Now, he has promised no deficit, but knows that one will probably be necessary; he is well aware of the conventional wisdom that demands this. So he needs an escape route that will keep his electors on his side.

What is a Conservative PM to do? The answer is simple. If he promises no deficit, and cannot willingly go into deficit, his only option is to be forced into deficit by the opposition. The $30 million was included in the economic update to provoke the opposition into this frenzy. The outcome of this move would mean a Tory deficit forced by the opposition in January of 2009.

I think Stephen Harper did make one small mistake, but it wasn't the cut to party funding. He underestimated the resolve with which the opposition would fight him, but it doesn't change the fact - the fact - that there was greater strategy at work here. Soon after this, the Tories record an NDP caucus meeting during which Jack muses about a coalition with the Liberals that would depend on Bloc support. The coalition is made official right after the tapes are released by the Tories.

The end result, was that the Harper Conservatives haven't been hurt that bad. I doubt that going to Her Excellency was ever part of Harper's plan, but it was made necessary by the circumstances. Regardless, support for the Tories is sky high, opposition to the separatists has also been renewed, and support for the opposition parties is eroding. Now, Harper has the next two months to ensure this all comes to fruition, but that depends on his budget. Harper has to spin this correctly if it will work out for him, and that requires some submission to the opposition. Essentially, he has to offer the opposition a budget that they can't responsibly refuse, while strongly indicating to the public that he is making those concessions in order to ensure continuity of government and prevent another $300 million election (one that no party can afford, including the Tories).

And my money says he will make that happen. The support for this coalition will waste away - the fact is that is the ballot read "Conservative vs. Coalition" then the Tories would win a majority quite handily - and the opposition knows that. I could be completely wrong about this - Harper may indeed present a budget that will trigger a non-confidence vote in January. But it still remains to be seen if that would result in the opposition taking power.

And even if that happened, it is unlikely that a coalition would survive very long. anyway. Then where would we be? Back where we started, probably.

I'm disappointed in all parties involved. I'm disappointed in Stephen Harper for using the questionable economic future of Canada to advance a partisan agenda (but that doesn't mean that I don't appreciate the political prowess it demonstrates). I'm disappointed in Jack Layton for discussing - and planning - a coalition with the separatists before this situation arose. I'm disappointed in Dion (again) for picking the worst time to finally grow a pair a stand up to the governing party - too little, too late? Maybe he figured that he had nothing to lose, since he'd already lost his job. And I'm disappointed in Gilles Duceppe for... well... I'm just disappointed that the Bloc still has relevance in Canadian politics.

The exchange in the House that struck me as odd was between Harper and Dion. Specifically, Harper said that the Liberals had sold themselves out to the separatists, and then in the next breath, accused the separatists of doing the same to the Liberals. To the average person, it may have appeared as though Harper was contradicting himself while making a last ditch attempt to divide the coalition. Dion then rose and spoke aggressively and with extreme conviction, trying to capitalize on the apparent blunder and insisting that the prime minister choose a story and stick with it.

And I found that to be absolutely hilarious, because Harper was right - on both counts.

The Liberals did sell their party (or rather, Dion did) out to the separatists. The day that a government of Her Majesty depends on the support of a separatist party to continue to govern will be one of the most embarrassing and shameful events in Canadian history, and Stephane Dion saw fit to move Canada that much closer to that happening. That, my friends, is selling your party out. Dion proved during the election that he just couldn't cut it as a party leader because he failed to understand the people of Canada. Clearly, that lesson has not been learned.

Similarly, Gilles Duceppe is equally guilty of selling his own party out, but not in such a blatantly obvious way. In 1996 a Liberal Minister asked the Supreme Court of Canada if there was any law that gave Quebec the right to separate from Canada. The Court said no, and that Minister then went about writing one. In 2000, the House of Commons passed that law, now known as the Clarity Act. That Act made it legal for a province to separate from Canada, and also made it practically impossible. Stephane Dion was the author of that Act and, in fact, was a leader of the ongoing war against Quebec separatist sentiment during the late 1990s and the early part of this decade.

And now he wants a coalition that depends on the party he sought to cripple. And what could be worse is that Gilles Duceppe wanted that, too. So Harper was right - each party has sold itself out to the other, in their own way. Shouldn't have Dion, as the author of the Clarity Act, been able to recognize that?

I also have to note two other positive outcomes of these events. First and foremost is that this "crisis" demonstrated the Governor General's relevance to Canadian government (and Canadian politics) for the first time in decades; sometimes Canadians in general just need a little reminder that Her Excellency actually serves a purpose. (Long live the Crown!)

And secondly, these events drew long overdue attention to the lack of legitimacy of the Bloc. Canada cannot be allowed to forget that the Bloc is a separatist party, and this has served as a much needed reminder of that fact.

 

[Aaron]

There will be fall-out within the Conservative Party, but Harper is by no means finished. His party is just like any other - full of politicians. Harper's performance as a head of government can be criticized, no doubt. But any politician or politically minded person will have to admit, that IF this was a political power-play, and IF he comes out ahead in the end, then it was a cunning move.

Regardless of the antics that took hold of parliament, Harper is ahead in the polls. If he can maintain that support by playing the separatist card, and exploit weakness in a new Liberal leader, he can come out of this ahead. I'm not denying that he is playing a dangerous game, but it is by no means over.

There is a serious chance that this will all blow up in Harper's face. But your referenced radio personalities are dead wrong - these people build their careers on the ability to pull shit like this. The intelligence and the ability is there.

 

[gsdx]

^ It's part of our history. . . just like the French part.

 

[gsdx]

Im not proposing we yank all references to the queen out of the history books. But what is her relevance to Canadian politics today? Im hard pressed to find any.

There really isn't any except ceremony. However, when I was a kid way back in the middle of the last century, the Queen was someone we sang 'God Save the Queen' to every morning in school. The Royal Family was a big part of our heritage back then and it is still important to us. There were many more 'official' and 'unofficial' visits to Canada back then as well, and Prince Andrew even attended college in Lakefield which is a mere 10-minute's drive from Peterborough (where I live). He spend a good deal of time in the city here and attended many city events and opened museums and such.

That doesn't happen anymore and, I suspect, there will be a disconnection from the Royal Family entirely as the older generations die off and the younger generations take over.

Still, though, the Governor General is one of the few remaining links between Canada and Great Britain. Goodness knows the American influence has virtually destroyed every other link. Only idiots like myself try to hold onto our English heritage just like those in Quebec fight to hold onto their French heritage.

To us, giving up the Royal Family would be like Quebec giving up French.

 

[rotary]

Two months closed? All the while drawing their parliamentary salaries?

I think there should be some spark of outrage that no work is getting done and they're living of what is welfare.

Legally, parliament can be prorogued for an entire year. The House only has to sit once every 365 days. Now that's effective government I tell you

Whole situation is a mess. We were already headed for a large deficit, now Harper can use a "Liberals forced me to" excuse when we post a massive one.

This coalition will never happen. Polls show the vast, vast majority of Canadians don't want it. Would be political suicide for the Liberals to form a coalition with big spenders, pro-business tax loonies like the NDP, being supported by separatists, and then inherit the worst financial mess anyone has lived through. Nope, not gonna happen. Ignatieff never wanted a coalition in the first place, he backed away and suggested we cooperative with Harper instead, he's just trumping the horn now to make Harper act responsibly.

 

[954dude]

Sounds like a lot of dirty work is going on with the Parliament. Normal politics I guess.