'Census Data Shows 11 House Seats Could Shift'

[CoolBlue71]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/no_20091223_2521.php



Census Data Shows 11 House Seats Could Shift

Texas Would Be The Biggest Winner,
Standing To Gain Four New Congressmen

By Richard E. Cohen
NationalJournal.com | Dec. 23, 2009

These state-to-state population shifts, of course, will affect the internal dynamics of the House, as well as Electoral College control in the 2012 presidential election. Although the shifts appear likely to favor Republicans, on balance, the huge increase in Hispanic population — especially in the South and West — could benefit Democrats within some of those states.

In Texas, for example, Hispanic and Democratic groups expect that the four-seat statewide gain will include three new Hispanic-majority districts: in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, in Houston and in south Texas. Those changes, in turn, could entrench several metropolitan-area House Republican districts, which have had huge increases in Hispanic population in the past decade.

Looking not only to the midterm congressional elections of 2010 but also the presidential election of 2012, numerous states will see gains and losses in both congressional seats and electoral votes via results of the U.S. Census Bureau.

This may be of no surprise; but I wanted to post this article here, which is not an official report of such change (for now it's an estimation).

Texas appears to be the big winner. The No. 2 most-populated state stands to see its current 32 congressional seats and 34 electoral votes (in Elections 2004 and 2008) increase by roughly 10 percent (36 congressional seats and 38 electoral votes). (The Electoral College for 2012 will apply also to 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.)

I leave the rest up to you folks who may want to respond. But I will say that I live in the state of Michigan; the worst state in the nation — in terms of job losses — we're now going to be battling Georgia to keep our rank as the No. 8 most-populated state in the nation (Mich. is projected to be on par to lose a congressional seat, down to 14, and electoral votes, down to 16, and become tied with Ga., which is forecast to move up one notch on both counts). Considering the trends involving Americans' moves to the south, south east, southwest, and west … I'm sure Mich. would be glad simply to remain among the top-10 (for however much longer).

 

[Kulindahr]

My view is they ought to just increase the number of seats. A representative was supposed to be responsive to the people, but they 'represent' so many people now they're responsive to statistics, not people.

 

[maxpowr9]

This is why I LOVE the census. This balancing game around 435.

These are the "predicted" changes to Congressional seats after the 2010 Census is complete.

Gain Seats
Arizona +2
Georgia +1
Florida +3
Nevada +1
Texas +2
Utah +1
Washington +1

Lose Seats
Illinois -1
Iowa -1
Louisiana -1
Massachusetts -1
Michigan -1
Missouri -1
New York -2
Ohio -2
Pennsylvania -1

Should be interesting.

 

[CoolBlue71]

This is why I LOVE the census. …

Arizona +2

The article has Arizona predicted to gain one [1] seat.

 

[Kulindahr]

This is why I LOVE the census. This balancing game around 435.


Should be interesting.

It's stupid. The only time a state should lose representation is if they lose population.

 

[JB3]

It's stupid. The only time a state should lose representation is if they lose population.

I dunno. It makes sense to me. If all of the other states are growing, while one is stagnant, why should they maintain the same representation? If they only reduced representation because of reduced population, the house would grow to an unmanageable size.

 

[Kulindahr]

I dunno. It makes sense to me. If all of the other states are growing, while one is stagnant, why should they maintain the same representation? If they only reduced representation because of reduced population, the house would grow to an unmanageable size.

Let it grow.

 

[JB3]

Let it grow.

Why? They hardly get anything done as it is, so why would we want to add more of them into the mix?

 

[Kulindahr]

Why? They hardly get anything done as it is, so why would we want to add more of them into the mix?

If it were up to me, each representative would represent no more people than he could recognize on sight. The purpose of a representative is not to be an efficient cog in an efficient machine, but to be familiar enough with all his constituents to actually know what would help them.