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Dissecting the campaigns compiled by ABC news:
THE NOTE: Inevitability Equals Vulnerability for Clinton
Obama Shines at Iowa Dinner, While Clinton Steps Off Pace
By RICK KLEIN with NANCY FLORES
Nov. 12, 2007
Nowhere in the Penn/Wolfson/Solis Doyle textbook does the following equation appear: Inevitability = Vulnerability.
But the microtargeting and triangulating in the Democratic race these days takes aim at the aura of invincibility surrounding Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y. And the only thing that looks inevitable now is that a race is on for the Democratic nomination.
It's enough to make the Clinton campaign feel the walls are closing in -- or maybe that the stage is falling down.
To the careful answers, the closed-off access, and the slash-and-burn rapid response team, we add this damaging element: Questioners as plants (gasp!). Two incidents of staffers coaching "real people" have emerged publicly, and you know the drill from here: The Clinton campaign admitted that it happened, said the senator didn't know it was happening, and promises that it won't happen again, ABC's Eloise Harper reports. (Anyone think they really did it only twice?)
It is easier to have a conversation with voters when your campaign has a pretty good idea of what they're interested in before you step in the room. But tradition trumps all in the Iowa caucuses (and New Hampshire primaries), and caucus-goers don't like to feel played.
Former senator John Edwards, D-N.C., didn't need prompting: "What George Bush does is plant questions and exclude people from events, and I don't think that's what Democrats want to see in Iowa," Edwards said yesterday, per the Des Moines Register's Tony Leys.
Per The Nation's Ari Melber: "The reports of a planting pattern come at a tough time for Clinton, who was widely criticized for being evasive during the last presidential debate. Faking questions is a particularly serious charge in Iowa, where caucus-goers are notoriously proud of their unique democratic process."
It's grist for the liberal blogosphere, who see shades of Bush "town hall meetings" and fake FEMA news conferences.
And it feeds the arguments of Clinton's top rivals, just as the race is giving them the opening they need. ("Turn up the heat," Clinton rallied on Saturday night. Advice taken.)
"The same old Washington textbook campaigns just won't do it in this election," Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., said at Saturday's Jefferson Jackson Dinner in Des Moines, Dan Balz and Shailagh Murray report in The Washington Post. "That's why not answering questions because we're afraid our answers won't be popular just won't do it."
The weekend belonged to Obama, from the J-J through "Meet the Press." "The Obama campaign owned the theatrics," David Chalian writes in the ABC write-up of Saturday night's dinner. "Obama supporters silently waved their O-shaped symbols of hope back and forth welcoming their competition to the stage. Obama's entrance came courtesy of the voice of the Chicago Bulls introducing the candidate onto the stage at which time his supporters were cued to turn on their light sticks which carried the names of each of Iowa's 99 counties."
"Barack Obama's speech at tonight's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Iowa took him back to the roots of his stardom," writes the New Republic's Michael Crowley.
Only one candidate could wow David Yepsen, and that one was Barack Obama. "The passion he showed should help him close the gap on Hillary Clinton by tipping some undecided caucus-goers his way," Yepsen writes in his Des Moines Register blog. "His oratory was moving and he successfully contrasted himself with the others -- especially Clinton -- without being snide or nasty about it."
It's a nice little wave for Obama -- but now his challenge is to keep the momentum going in these two weeks before Turkey Day helps lull us into political torpor.
And another element to add to Clinton's tough storyline: the incredible shrinking New Hampshire lead. Her lead is sliced down to just 11 points in the new Marist poll, and 9 in the University of New Hampshire/Boston Globe poll.
"The poll shows that Clinton's support has dropped as Obama and Edwards have stepped up their criticism of her positions and her forthrightness -- attacks that have escalated since the presidential debate late last month, where they accused her of equivocating on illegal immigration and other issues," The Boston Globe's Scott Helman writes.
"Voters polled believe Clinton is less 'trustworthy' than Obama -- 19 percent said she was the most trustworthy candidate, compared with 26 percent who said Obama was," Helman continues. "Only half of those who said they would vote for Clinton listed her as the most trustworthy."
Asks the New York Daily News' Michael McAuliff: "Where did Hillary Clinton's mojo go? That's what her campaign has to be asking after a rough two weeks. And more importantly, they have to be wondering how to recapture that fading aura of an unstoppable juggernaut."
Edwards isn't moving much in the polls these days. (Was that really Joe Trippi leading Obama staffers in bellowing their new chants at the bar of the Hotel Fort Des Moines Saturday night? And if John Mellencamp doesn't draw Edwards-style Democrats -- Mr. "Small Town" himself -- what kind of concert could Edwards avoid the boos at?)
Newsweek's Richard Wolffe finds Edwards losing key supporters in Iowa. Four county chairs tapped by the Edwards campaign have defected, in addition to a few other prominent Iowans. "Four years ago, news of defections hurt Dick Gephardt over the summer and Howard Dean just before caucus night," Wolffe reminds us.
Former senator John Edwards, D-N.C., didn't need prompting: "What George Bush does is plant questions and exclude people from events, and I don't think that's what Democrats want to see in Iowa," Edwards said yesterday, per the Des Moines Register's Tony Leys.
Per The Nation's Ari Melber: "The reports of a planting pattern come at a tough time for Clinton, who was widely criticized for being evasive during the last presidential debate. Faking questions is a particularly serious charge in Iowa, where caucus-goers are notoriously proud of their unique democratic process."
It's grist for the liberal blogosphere, who see shades of Bush "town hall meetings" and fake FEMA news conferences.
And it feeds the arguments of Clinton's top rivals, just as the race is giving them the opening they need. ("Turn up the heat," Clinton rallied on Saturday night. Advice taken.)
"The same old Washington textbook campaigns just won't do it in this election," Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., said at Saturday's Jefferson Jackson Dinner in Des Moines, Dan Balz and Shailagh Murray report in The Washington Post. "That's why not answering questions because we're afraid our answers won't be popular just won't do it."
The weekend belonged to Obama, from the J-J through "Meet the Press." "The Obama campaign owned the theatrics," David Chalian writes in the ABC write-up of Saturday night's dinner. "Obama supporters silently waved their O-shaped symbols of hope back and forth welcoming their competition to the stage. Obama's entrance came courtesy of the voice of the Chicago Bulls introducing the candidate onto the stage at which time his supporters were cued to turn on their light sticks which carried the names of each of Iowa's 99 counties."
"Barack Obama's speech at tonight's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Iowa took him back to the roots of his stardom," writes the New Republic's Michael Crowley.
Only one candidate could wow David Yepsen, and that one was Barack Obama. "The passion he showed should help him close the gap on Hillary Clinton by tipping some undecided caucus-goers his way," Yepsen writes in his Des Moines Register blog. "His oratory was moving and he successfully contrasted himself with the others -- especially Clinton -- without being snide or nasty about it."
It's a nice little wave for Obama -- but now his challenge is to keep the momentum going in these two weeks before Turkey Day helps lull us into political torpor.
And another element to add to Clinton's tough storyline: the incredible shrinking New Hampshire lead. Her lead is sliced down to just 11 points in the new Marist poll, and 9 in the University of New Hampshire/Boston Globe poll.
"The poll shows that Clinton's support has dropped as Obama and Edwards have stepped up their criticism of her positions and her forthrightness -- attacks that have escalated since the presidential debate late last month, where they accused her of equivocating on illegal immigration and other issues," The Boston Globe's Scott Helman writes.
"Voters polled believe Clinton is less 'trustworthy' than Obama -- 19 percent said she was the most trustworthy candidate, compared with 26 percent who said Obama was," Helman continues. "Only half of those who said they would vote for Clinton listed her as the most trustworthy."
Asks the New York Daily News' Michael McAuliff: "Where did Hillary Clinton's mojo go? That's what her campaign has to be asking after a rough two weeks. And more importantly, they have to be wondering how to recapture that fading aura of an unstoppable juggernaut."
Edwards isn't moving much in the polls these days. (Was that really Joe Trippi leading Obama staffers in bellowing their new chants at the bar of the Hotel Fort Des Moines Saturday night? And if John Mellencamp doesn't draw Edwards-style Democrats -- Mr. "Small Town" himself -- what kind of concert could Edwards avoid the boos at?)
Newsweek's Richard Wolffe finds Edwards losing key supporters in Iowa. Four county chairs tapped by the Edwards campaign have defected, in addition to a few other prominent Iowans. "Four years ago, news of defections hurt Dick Gephardt over the summer and Howard Dean just before caucus night," Wolffe reminds us.
Then there's the Fred fade. Former senator Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., isn't even in the top fivein the new New Hampshire polls, and new Florida numbers have him dropping fast. "Fred Thompson is proving to be nowhere near the force many had expected when he entered the race in September," Adam C. Smith writes for the St. Petersburg Times. "The poll showed him in fifth place with 8 percent support, behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, with 9 percent, McCain with 12 percent, Mitt Romney with 19 percent and Giuliani with 36 percent in the state he declares a must-win."
He's getting more animated on the trail, but everyone has their limits. "If you're expecting somebody to leap off the stage and start singing show tunes, you're not going to get that," campaign adviser Rich Galen tells the Los Angeles Times' Michael Finnegan, mercifully.
Also in the news: Enjoy them while they last, since this could be the last Norman Hsu story you read that has anything interesting in it at all. A four-person (with two additional contributors) Wall Street Journal team dissects the rise and fall of Hillary Clinton's least-favorite "bundler." "Politics was a world where his schmoozing and fund-raising talents were powerful currency," the Journal reporters write. "He befriended Mrs. Clinton and other Democrats, decorating his SoHo loft with their photos. He displayed a saxophone autographed by former President Bill Clinton, bought for $26,000 at a Red Cross benefit. He sported a chocolate-brown leather bomber jacket with the presidential seal."
Clinton gets some more gender card advice: "In this case, pandering to female voters is a big mistake. The sisterhood is famously fickle. Besides, in order to win, Clinton must grow her vote," writes Boston Globe columnist Joan Vennochi. "Clinton should get out of that kitchen, ASAP. There aren't enough women in it to elect her president of the United States."
If Obama's challenge is to keep the momentum going, does it matter if some think he's already letting it drain away? Salon.com's Walter Shapiro saw Obama finding his voice Saturday night -- only to begin to lose it Sunday morning. "The fiery Obama of Saturday night had been replaced on Sunday morning by a replicant, a tepid candidate mostly concerned with avoiding mistakes rather than winning converts," Shapiro writes. "If Obama really wants to be the one who knocks Hillary off her pedestal, he should remember that statues rarely topple without a hard push."
Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., is playing to his strength, with an op-ed today in the Baltimore Sun outlining his plans for Pakistan.
Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd, D-Conn., told ABC's George Stephanopoulos on "This Week" Sunday that a recession is looking likely. "It's certainly pointing in that direction," Dodd said. And he had this to say on reports of the Clinton camp planting questions: "The idea that this is a contrived setting, been orchestrated and set up ahead of time, I think would hurt you here."
For as static as the Democratic field seems, the Republican side is proving impossible to narrow down. Bloomberg's Heidi Przybyla looks at former governor Mike Huckabee's, R-Ark., ability to scramble Iowa. "Though he's a Scripture-quoting champion of social conservatives, his populist economics may limit his ability to broaden his support among Republican constituencies," she writes. "The result is a kind of populist fusion -- he's also anti- abortion, pro-gun and a foe of gay marriage -- that has catapulted Huckabee to the first tier of Republicans in Iowa."
As for Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, "the Internet has harnessed him," Katharine Q. Seelye and Leslie Wayne write in the Sunday New York Times. "Mr. Paul's once-solo quest has taken on a life of its own. It is evolving from a figment of cyberspace into a traditional campaign, with yard signs, direct mail and old-fashioned rallies."
And AP's Ron Fournier catches up with Iowa waitress Anita Esterday after the media sensation blew through town. "When I got home, there were 60 messages on my machine," Esterday says. "Are you guys nuts? . . . There's a war going on and the price of oil is going crazy. Look at all the toys being recalled right now. Just look at the news! Isn't there something else you can be writing about?"
The kicker:
"If it were Bartholomew, that would be a different story." -- Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom, explaining why the campaign is having fun with the name "Mitt."
"The views of my mothers are not necessarily the views of mine." -- McCain, jumping in on "Hardball" after his 95-year-old mother said of Romney: "He's a Mormon and the Mormons of Salt Lake City had caused that scandal. And to clean that up, again, it's not a subject."
"Are we nuts thinking Hillary Clinton could be president of this country? Honest to God, just stand back and think about it." -- Joel Surnow, executive producer of "24." He's leaning toward Rudy.
Bookmark The Note at http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105288&page=1
