CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
Election 2008: My Prediction
11.02.2008 | My prediction for Election 2008—this Tuesday [Nov. 4, 2008]—is that Barack Obama (D-Illinois) will be elected as the next, 44th president of the United States.
I predict Obama will win between 50.5 and 52.5 percent of the U.S. popular vote. John McCain (R-Arizona) will nab between 45.5 and 47.5 of the U.S. popular vote. In the Electoral College, Obama will hit over 350 electoral votes.
For Obama to prevail, he will retain all of losing 2004 Democrat John Kerry's states, and return to the party's fold Iowa and New Mexico—the only two states in the nation that voted in 2000 for Democrat Al Gore and switched to incumbent Republican George W. Bush in 2004. Obama will cross the minimum-270 threshold with the following: leading bellwethers Missouri, Nevada, and Ohio. He'll also pick up Republican bastions North Carolina (last Democratic with Jimmy Carter in 1976) and Virginia (last DEM in 1964)—as well as Colorado (last DEM in 1992). And Florida (last DEM in 1996).
In presenting the list of which candidates will win which states, I will cut off Obama at 364—essentially winning all battlegrounds (sans, momentarily, for Indiana, which has voted Democratic only three times in the last 75 years; the fact alone, and with Ind. a 2008 battleground, should scare the bejesus out the Republicans!)—and a list of possible surprises that I deem "Tossups," which I also see as potential surprises.
Surprises, I see, as ones that are Lean GOP/Lean McCain. Nearly, or maybe all, will go for him (I'm not necessarily predicting otherwise!). But there are some—like Indiana, North Dakota, and South Dakota (with an identical voting record since 1920; Ind. and S.D. date back to 1916), as well as Montana (identical to Colorado since 1948) and Georgia (every Democratic winner has carried it or neighboring Florida (in some cases, both)—that have been polling away from the GOP grip. And, of course, there's much reporting, recently, in McCain's home state of Arizona less Republican (It last voted Democratic in 1996). Those are on the list in the Tossup category. They appear in bolded purple. Why? In case Obama were to actually reach 400.
Key: Obama states are in blue (pickups in navy blue).
McCain states are in red (pickups, though I'm not predicting any, in dark red).
McCain states are in red (pickups, though I'm not predicting any, in dark red).
BARACK OBAMA • 364
- California • 55
- Colorado • 9
- Connecticut • 7
- Delaware • 3
- Florida • 27
- Hawaii • 4
- Illinois • 21
- Iowa • 7
- Maine • 4
- Maryland • 10
- Massachusetts • 12
- Michigan • 17
- Minnesota • 10
- Missouri • 11
- Nevada • 5
- New Hampshire • 4
- New Jersey • 15
- New Mexico • 5
- New York • 31
- North Carolina • 15
- Ohio • 20
- Oregon • 7
- Pennsylvania • 21
- Rhode Island • 4
- Vermont • 3
- Virginia • 13
- Washington • 11
- Wisconsin • 10
- District of Columbia • 3
- Arizona • 10
- Arkansas • 6
- Georgia • 15
- Indiana • 11
- Louisiana • 9
- Montana • 3
- North Dakota • 3
- South Carolina • 8
- South Dakota • 3
- Texas • 34
- West Virginia • 5
JOHN McCAIN • 67
- Alabama • 9
- Alaska • 3
- Idaho • 4
- Kansas • 6
- Kentucky • 8
- Mississippi • 6
- Nebraska • 5
- Oklahoma • 7
- Tennessee • 11
- Utah • 5
Note: I am not predicting, in detail, House and Senate races. But I do essentially see a Republican bloodbath giving rise to House defeats for, say, Colorado's Marilyn Musgrave, Connecticut's Chris Shays, Florida's Tom Feeney, Michigan's Jim Knollenberg, and Minnesota's Michele Bachmann—and Senate losses for Alaska's convicted Ted Stevens, Minnesota's Norm Coleman, New Hamphire's John Sununu, North Carolina's Elizabeth Dole, and Oregon's Gordon Smith.
