Electoral Map- 2012

[evanrick]

I think gay marriage and Obamacare could hurt him there.

You do realize it was conservatives idea for Obamacare? The first individual mandate passed was by a republican governor named Mitt Romney.

I just wanted people to remember that people attack Obamacare not on its merits, but because Barack Obama is a black Democrat who the right wing has sought to de-ligtimize since he was sworn in. Its (attacking Obama) done nothing but harm our economy and our country in the process because republicans have made their #1 priority to defeat the president, even if that means tanking the economy in the process. Cant trust people that are willing to do that.


But , let us think of it this way, Obamas danger is not in losing, but winning by a small margin. That will make it difficult for him if we dont elected more democrats to congress.

However, Romney would be free to pursue any radical agenda he wanted because he would be "seen" as legitimate no matter how many billionaires are seen propping him up to destroy the middle class.

 

[hotatlboi]

Obamas danger is not in losing

He definitely could still lose.

 

[hotatlboi]

One interesting scenario, if Romney takes Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin he could get to 269 easier than 270. That would win him the election (whereas Obama needs 270).

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

 

[palemale]

One interesting scenario, if Romney takes Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin he could get to 269 easier than 270. That would win him the election (whereas Obama needs 270).

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

One needs 270 to win. There are 538 electoral votes. Half of 538 is 269. It would be a tie and the House of Representatives would decide, with each state delegation getting one vote.

The problem for Romney in Ohio is that it has many auto plants. This makes the auto bailout popular in Ohio. Also, the Bain attacks are proving to be pretty effective there.

Virginia is a problem because population growth in the Washington suburbs has tilted the state more Democratic. Lots of immigrants, government and high tech workers in the Washington suburbs, and educated whites in general. Also, large African American population and growing immigrant population. The fact that Virginia Senate Republican hopeful George Allen is skipping the GOP convention tells you how difficult the state will be for Romney. Virginia's George Allen to skip GOP convention

Ultimately, however, it is the popular vote that will count. If the public turns largely negative about the economy, Obama will lose. If the public, despite the struggling economy, realizes how creepy and ridiculous Romney is, Obama will win. The result in the swing states will likely mirror the result in the popular vote.

 

[CoolBlue71]

One interesting scenario, if Romney takes Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin he could get to 269 easier than 270. That would win him the election (whereas Obama needs 270).

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

If Mitt Romney flips Wisconsin, he will win beyond what you had listed: Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin.

John McCain's states: 179 electoral votes.

Win back Nebraska #02, for 180. Flip Fla. for 209. Flip Ohio for 227. Flip Wis. for 237. Also getting flipped: Indiana (248), North Carolina (263). Cross the 270 mark by also flipping: Virginia (276), Colorado (285), Iowa (291), bellwethers Nevada (297) and New Mexico (302).

If Wisconsin were to get flipped, so would New Hampshire (306).

 

[evanrick]

Do you really think Iowa is going for Romney? Not a chance.

 

[hotatlboi]

One needs 270 to win. There are 538 electoral votes. Half of 538 is 269. It would be a tie and the House of Representatives would decide, with each state delegation getting one vote.

And Romney likely will have the advantage in the House, which is why I say he would win.

Ultimately, however, it is the popular vote that will count. If the public turns largely negative about the economy, Obama will lose. If the public, despite the struggling economy, realizes how creepy and ridiculous Romney is, Obama will win. The result in the swing states will likely mirror the result in the popular vote.

Yes, 95% of the time the popular vote winner is the actual winner.

 

[Kulindahr]

And Romney likely will have the advantage in the House, which is why I say he would win.



Yes, 95% of the time the popular vote winner is the actual winner.

That's my take on the House, too, but I haven't done a state-by-state breakdown. Each state gets one vote in that, right?

BTW, I think the percentage is actually higher than 95%... not that it particularly matters.

 

[scream4ever]

That's my take on the House, too, but I haven't done a state-by-state breakdown. Each state gets one vote in that, right?

BTW, I think the percentage is actually higher than 95%... not that it particularly matters.

It's technically 95.45% (42/44 total presidential elections), and yes in actuality it probably is even higher (accounting for outliers and whatnot).

 

[Sammie13]

I gave Obama Ohio and gave Romney Florida otherwise we agree.

And it could be that way. Everybody wants to be in the know, but these OH and FL are so close. Ohio seems to always change late in the game. Kerry gave up on it and pulled his resources 4 weeks earlier and then nearly won the state and the election. They have alot of voters there that make up their minds late seemingly based on what's happening in the country those last few pre-election weeks. FL is perfectly sliced in 3...conservative North, swing Middle, and liberal South. May come down to who gets out the vote.

I find IA and WI interesting. Where as the interior west and mid-Atlantic have become more Democratic through population changes, the states of Wis, Minn, Iowa and Missouri are trending more Republican. IA & WI are Democratic strong holds from the past (think Dukakis) that keep flirting with the GOP. Even Minnesota has for more Repubs than the old days.

 

[CowboyBob]

Mitzy might as well pack up and go back to one of his many palatial homes.

Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map

All those millions wasted on an election he doesn't have a chance in hell to win.

Even one of the heads of the American Taliban Mr. Sweater-Vest Santorum said Mitt Romney the "worst republican" to face Obama months ago.

Rick Santorum: Mitt Romney 'Worst Republican' To Face Obama

C'mon Republican Sugar Daddies™. Instead of wasting hundreds of millions of dollars promoting this loser put the money to good use.... build schools, repair roads and bridges, open day care centers and clinics. Put your ill-gotten gains and inherited billion$ to good use instead of trying to buy yourself a President. You ain't gonna get one this time.

 

[CowboyBob]

GWB was elected twice and you really think Mitt has no chance?

GWB was elected twice?

 

[MystikWizard]

I also think the odds are stacked too much against Mitt for him to be given a "great" chance at a victory. I think he could win, but the chances are very small at this point. Of course, the media and pollsters will do their job to try and make it sound like it is closer than it is, for ratings and overall interest ... but the national polls really don't mean anything. It's the electoral votes, and battleground states in particular, where the magic happens.

And it seems like we have seen monumental change in Virginia from the past few years, as pointed out. Virginia seems to be well on it's way to becoming a full fledged blue state, much like Pennsylvania did eventually. And that spells pretty big problems for the GOP. They can not be happy with this trend and it's pretty clear that they need to do something drastic.

This boils down, once again, to the way between the Evangelicals and Fiscal Conservatives. That marriage seems to be dissolving more and more, and frankly I don't think the two groups can co-exist in the same party much longer. If the GOP has to kick one to the curb, I would say it should be the Evangelicals, if they have any hope of surviving in the future and attracting Independents.

 

[Kulindahr]

C'mon Republican Sugar Daddies™. Instead of wasting hundreds of millions of dollars promoting this loser put the money to good use.... build schools, repair roads and bridges, open day care centers and clinics. Put your ill-gotten gains and inherited billion$ to good use instead of trying to buy yourself a President. You ain't gonna get one this time.

I just got a crazy idea: if Romney could raise another billion, and went around donating it to heavily-used infrastructure in swing states, both creating jobs and improving things... he just might have a chance.