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Foreclosures

Well, I don't blame you personally....it was a matter of speech. I also don't blame me because I did not make an offer when prices were skyrocketing and that would have forced me to make a payment for which I had no means.

I waited and worked a second job; I banked the money for a down payment and I patiently waited because I could not see making a purchase in a market that prices escalated $200,000 every four months or so. I banked on the fact that this was irrational which is exactly what it was and the result is what we are suffering through today.

I do get a bit agitated when people say that we should now do a bail out for the banks and a bail out for those that bought houses for which they did not have income to support. Bankers got greedy; they saw the housing bubble as never ending and so they made loans and never even required proof of a person's income let alone down payments.

And citizens went merrily along and thought a home was like a checking account that you could continually write checks against and borrow from. Call me old fashioned but I scrimped, saved, and worked to get it to a point I won't have to have something I saddle my entire earnings to have.

As to your medical bills...check to see if the hospital was a Hill-Burton hospital. If it is (used federal funds to expand under that program), it is required to provide uncompensated care to the community and they may be able to substantially reduce what you owe versus not getting paid anything.
 
I bought my home in 2002 with my best friend. We worked our butts off for the 20% down-payment and did not get any help from anyone. At the time, it was difficult to find a home becuase they were selling so quickly. And my best friend really wanted a brand new home that was at least 2 stories (personally, I would have prefered 1...but that is rare to find in new homes in my area). We manged to get in early enough in one development that we were the first people to buy in it.

I have never attempt to take more money out of the house. In fact, I did the opposite. I overpaid the payments to push the balance down all of these years. And I have to say it is kind of depressing to see prices drop as much as it has. I knew they would go down some but did not realize that it would go down so far.

And some analysts are now saying that they will probably go down another 30% next year in California, which means that it will be way less than what I paid for my home.

Previously, I was looking at some of that gain that there was as part of my retirement. Being self employed, I don't have a corporation making contributions. Thankfully, the last couple years, I have had a 401k plan, but that will never be enough for retirement. And the investments in my 401k have not done well either. I hope that over the long term, that my house returns to what it was worth.
 
As to your medical bills...check to see if the hospital was a Hill-Burton hospital. If it is (used federal funds to expand under that program), it is required to provide uncompensated care to the community and they may be able to substantially reduce what you owe versus not getting paid anything.

I don't know what the Seventh Day Adventists, who took over the hospital because the county couldn't afford it any longer (because the Sate of Oregon has backed out of promises concerning timber revenues, because the federal government shafted the State of Oregon....), did for funding to restore and improve, but they already write off 90% of what insurance doesn't cover. With costs as they are, I still end up owing more than I can reasonably pay.

I'm stuck in a situation where I have little sympathy for people who are losing houses they couldn't afford anyway, because thanks to all the idiots who have screwed up the economy, and all the ones (Democrats, mostly) who have laden the country with regulations that rule out a great deal of work I could do, I'll probably never have the stress of dealing with a mortgage.
 
I bought my home in 2002 with my best friend. We worked our butts off for the 20% down-payment and did not get any help from anyone. At the time, it was difficult to find a home becuase they were selling so quickly. And my best friend really wanted a brand new home that was at least 2 stories (personally, I would have prefered 1...but that is rare to find in new homes in my area). We manged to get in early enough in one development that we were the first people to buy in it.

I have never attempt to take more money out of the house. In fact, I did the opposite. I overpaid the payments to push the balance down all of these years. And I have to say it is kind of depressing to see prices drop as much as it has. I knew they would go down some but did not realize that it would go down so far.

And some analysts are now saying that they will probably go down another 30% next year in California, which means that it will be way less than what I paid for my home.

Previously, I was looking at some of that gain that there was as part of my retirement. Being self employed, I don't have a corporation making contributions. Thankfully, the last couple years, I have had a 401k plan, but that will never be enough for retirement. And the investments in my 401k have not done well either. I hope that over the long term, that my house returns to what it was worth.

I totally understand where you are coming from. I added the little complication that I decided to come out of the closet and get a divorce which kind of split everything I had saved and what I had put aside for retirement. On the house side, we were fortunate to be able to sell and make any profit; we had just bought the house and I was making double payments and sometimes triple so it would be paid down when I ever did retire. And my retirement that was okay for Michigan is a drop in the bucket here in DC so what I do draw on the pension plan I was in is quickly gone!

I am still nervous about buying because I am hoping that the bottom is near. I want to begin paying into something that will appreciate so that if I ever can retire, I will hopefully be able to downsize and at least survive. I am not counting on Social Security because at the rate its going...who knows what I'll ever see....and you are right....my 401K investments (the statement just came) are not doing too well. Hopefully the market will change before I turn 65!
 
San Diego sues Bank of America to halt foreclosures

San Diego's city attorney said on Wednesday he filed a lawsuit against Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC - News) and its Countrywide unit to prevent the mortgage lenders from foreclosing on homes in the city, which he aims to make a "foreclosure sanctuary."

City Attorney Michael Aguirre plans to file similar lawsuits against Washington Mutual Inc (NYSE:WM - News), Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC - News) and Wachovia Corp (NYSE:WB - News) in an effort to make the lenders negotiate with mortgage borrowers facing foreclosure.
"We would like to see San Diego become a foreclosure sanctuary," Aguirre said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080723/bankofamerica_foreclosures_lawsuit.html?.v=1
 
It's stuff like this that's just going to drag this whole crisis out longer. It's only going to cause banks and other lenders to think twice about operating in San Diego in the future. If somebody really can't pay their mortgage, stopping foreclosure isn't going to fix the underlying problem unless the banks forgive a certain portion of the loan or give the borrower more favorable rates. That of course just rewards people who got in over their head while those who didn't buy too much house or stayed out of the housing market altogether get to pay for it all in terms of more difficulty and cost to borrowing for a home in the future.

I'm not sure they even have a case here. Just because the leadership of these banks encouraged questionable lending practices does not mean the mortgage contact is invalid and the bank can't foreclose on a home. It sounds to me like local politicians are trying to make political hay out of this and possibly delay some foreclosures while this is stuck in court.
 
Fitch Projects additional 25 percent House Price Declines (real terms)



From HousingWire: Fitch Updates Ratings Model; Projects Steep Housing Price Declines
Fitch Ratings said Thursday that it had enhanced its U.S. residential mortgage loss mode ... Fitch’s revisions suggest ... a very bearish take on housing prices over the next five years: Fitch said in its report that it is expecting home prices to decline by an average of 25 percent in real terms at the national level over the next five years, starting from the second quarter of 2008.

And that’s the base case scenario.
...
Fitch will also roll out new 25 MSA-level risk factors influencing frequency of foreclosure and loss severity estimates, the agency said; the 25 MSAs chosen are those that have exhibited strong non-conforming mortgage lending activity in the past.

“Some MSAs such as San Diego and San Francisco, CA are expected to experience home price declines by as much as 47 percent and 33 percent over the next five years, while home prices in MSAs such as San Antonio, TX are expected to appreciate by 7 percent,” [Huxley Somerville, group managing director and head of Fitch’s U.S. RMBS group said].​
It's important to note these are real prices - adjusted for inflation. A 7% increase in 5 years, with 3% inflation per year, is a nominal price decline of about 8%.


http://www.housingwire.com/2008/07/24/fitch-updates-ratings-model-projects-steep-price-declines/
 
That's an interesting ploy San Diego is trying. It could ultimately backfire on the city unless it's done right -- i.e. with some guarantee that interest, at least, will be paid, with the mortgages just rolling over year after year until payments including principal can begin again.
Granted, that's kinda harsh on the home buyer in finacnial terms, amounting to a rent-to-forestall-foreclosure, but in terms of being able to keep the house, it's better than losing it all.

Reading the articles, I'm wondering what my mom's best bet is on selling her house. Her notion right now is to get it on the market before prices go lower, but from what I've seen here, hardly anything is selling because buyers are waiting for prices to drop even more.
Anyone know if there's a map out there showing projections around the country?
 
That's an interesting ploy San Diego is trying. It could ultimately backfire on the city unless it's done right -- i.e. with some guarantee that interest, at least, will be paid, with the mortgages just rolling over year after year until payments including principal can begin again.
Granted, that's kinda harsh on the home buyer in finacnial terms, amounting to a rent-to-forestall-foreclosure, but in terms of being able to keep the house, it's better than losing it all.

Reading the articles, I'm wondering what my mom's best bet is on selling her house. Her notion right now is to get it on the market before prices go lower, but from what I've seen here, hardly anything is selling because buyers are waiting for prices to drop even more.
Anyone know if there's a map out there showing projections around the country?


A map is not going to be accurate. There will always be pockets that are doing much better than others.

The problem with the $40-million house is that there aren't any," said Mandile, who was not involved in the Spelling transaction. Putting together a custom home on that scale takes three to four years of concentrated effort, and people who finish the task rarely part with their homes. "The pain of building a $40-million house is the reason you don't want to sell it," Mandile said.

So tell your mom to list her home for over $40 million ;)


Seriously, from my real estate friends.....they say not to overprice your house. Sell it based on recent sales, not what they were selling for last year. Depending on the market, if you list it a little lower, it may encourage bidding against each other.

I was listening to Mad Money with Jim Cramer today and he thinks that real estate will bottom out the end of this year...but then again...why would you want to sell at the bottom of the market...if that is the case. So many others think it will be a lot longer than that. Who knows...it is all guessing. I don't see how it can bottom out this year with so many other bad loans having the fixed portion of their adjustables expiring next year. (and many of them not maturing until 2010)...many of those were crazy loans that they did not even pay the interest in full.

My fav is Calculated Risk http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
 
The "Foreclosure Crisis" and Exploitation of a Suicide

[SIZE=-1]by Tanta[/SIZE]



This is an extremely distressing story: a woman faxes a suicide note to her mortgage servicer on the day the foreclosure sale is scheduled, and is dead by the time the police arrive.

Distressing for anyone with what I take to be a normal sense of human decency, that is. To the local and now national media, it seems to be catnip. Carlene Balderrama's personal tragedy is in danger of becoming an indelible urban legend of the Great Predatory Foreclosure Crisis, uncomfortable facts be damned. The tenor of the reporting, of course, makes anyone who expresses any skepticism about the media's line on this sad event sound inhuman. I have been telling myself since I first saw this story that only a fool would try to steer a course through the rock of credulousness or the hard place of callousness. But I guess it's my job to be a fool today.

***************

The Boston Globe got the thing underway on Thursday:
TAUNTON - The housing crunch has caused anguish and anxiety for millions of Americans. For Carlene Balderrama, a 53-year-old wife and mother, the pressure was apparently too much.

Police say that Balderrama fatally shot herself Tuesday afternoon, 90 minutes before her foreclosed home was scheduled to be sold at auction. Chief Raymond O'Berg said that Balderrama faxed a letter to her mortgage company at 2:30 p.m., saying that "by the time they foreclosed on the house today she'd be dead."

The mortgage company notified police, who found her body at 3:30 p.m. The auction had been scheduled to start at 5 p.m., when bidders showed up at the house and found it surrounded by police cruisers.

But, unbeknownst to buyers and to Balderrama, the auction had been postponed by the time she grabbed her husband's high-powered rifle, O'Berg said.

Balderrama left a note for her family, saying they should "take the [life] insurance money and pay for the house," O'Berg said. The chief said he did not know, however, if the family would be able to collect on the policy in the event of a suicide.​
Those appear to be facts. Then we get this:
Joe Whitney, who works with Balderrama's husband, said that she handled the bills in the household and that the husband was unaware of the foreclosure.

"John didn't even know about it; that's the surprise," Whitney said outside the home, where he had come to comfort the family. "It's just one of those awful, awful, tragic events."

John Balderrama did, however, file for Chapter 13 bankruptcy three times from 2004 to 2006, but the courts dismissed the petitions. Debtors who declare bankruptcy under Chapter 13 generally can keep their homes while paying off their debts under a court-approved reorganization plan.​
Something doesn't add up here. Nonetheless, the reporter is undeterred:
As Congress rushed yesterday to help 400,000 strapped homeowners avoid foreclosure and prevent Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from collapsing, the suicide underscored the potentially devastating toll of the housing crunch.

Bruce Marks, chief executive of the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America, said it is not uncommon for homeowners to contemplate suicide when they cannot keep up their mortgage payments. Marks's group counsels homeowners in crisis and responds to such crises by immediately notifying the police, he said.

"What gets us so angry is that people blame themselves," Marks said. "They can't see past their sense of responsibility to see the responsibility and the predatory nature of these lenders. The fact of the matter is, unless something dramatic happens, there's going to be more and more people like her taking their lives."

Police believe that when the Balderramas bought the house in a stronger market, the family chose an adjustable rate mortgage, confident they would be able to keep up the payments. But as the housing market plummeted and the rates rose, the family fell behind, O'Berg said.​
We have Bruce Marks, who should be ashamed of himself, labelling Balderrama's mortgage lender a predator. We have a cop making claims about the terms of the mortgage loan and the sequence of events leading to the default--claims that the reporter could have verified by searching the public records. (Note: I have not examined the Balderrama's recorded mortgage documents, because the North Bristol MA Registry of Deeds requires creation of an account with an account fee and a $1.00 per page charge for the documents. I am not inclined to spend $15 to see a copy of their mortgage, but I'm inclined to wonder why the Boston Globe isn't so inclined.) But we get even more from the co-worker and the cop:
Whitney said he did not believe that Carlene Balderrama had a history of mental illness.

"It looked like a happy couple," Whitney said. "That's why John was so blown away. Nothing medically ever came up, and I've known them for 20 years."

O'Berg said he was troubled that the pressures of foreclosure had triggered suicide on a street that he described as solidly middle-class.

"That's the real sad part: This is a middle-class family, a husband working, the son is working," O'Berg said. But the housing crunch, he said, "is inflicting real pain on middle-class Americans.

"Put yourself in her shoes," he added. "You handle the finances, and you're hiding everything from family. It's a lot of pressure."​
Why are two people who are neither psychologists nor economists so eager to convince us that the primary cause of this suicide was "the foreclosure crisis"? Since when do the local cops become your go-to sociologists?

The Boston Herald on the same day provided some facts that rather confound this narrative:
John Balderrama bought the three-bedroom house at 103 Duffy Drive in October 2002, using a $220,255 mortgage to cover most of the $232,000 purchase price, public records show.

But less than eight months later, PHH initiated foreclosure proceedings - usually a sign that a borrower is at least 90 days delinquent.​
The Herald does not confirm that the mortgage loan in question was an ARM, but it certainly casts doubt on the idea that rising interest rates and plummeting house prices had anything to do with the Balderramas' difficulties with their mortgage.

According to the Herald, John Balderrama filed Chapter 13 bankruptcy petitions in 2004, 2005, and 2006. I did spend some time looking at these bankruptcy filings, which are available to anyone with a PACER account and the willingness to spend 8 cents a page. In all three filings, the only debts listed for Balderrama were a single mortgage on the house and a car loan. There are no unsecured debts and no undischargeable or "priority" debts. There are no catastrophic (or even modest) medical expenses or debts. In fact, in all three filings, the only debt to be paid through the Chapter 13 plan is the arrearage on the mortgage, which seems to have been around $27,000 in the first filing and around $44,000 by the last one (in April 2006). Otherwise, each plan indicated that Balderrama would pay his approximately $1700 house payment (that figure includes taxes and insurance) and $289 car loan directly to the creditors during the BK. Each plan indicated that there were no assets above exempt amounts.

The only real difference among the three filings is that Balderrama's income kept increasing substantially, meaning that in each filing the required payment to the trustee kept increasing. In the first filing, he claimed gross monthly income of $6,202, which resulted in a monthly repayment plan requirement of $527 (in addition to the regular monthly car and house payment). (The Herald story reports his net (after tax) income instead of gross.) By the third filing, the gross monthly income was $10,461 and the plan payment was $1066. As far as I can tell, Balderrama never made more than one plan payment during any of these BKs. It's hard to tell whether the mortgage payment was made post-petition, but in at least two of the BKs the post-petition car payment didn't get made. All the bankruptcies were dismissed due to either failure to make payments to the trustee or failure to attend hearings or creditors' meetings.

I have to say that these were a very strange set of BK filings. Carlene Balderrama never appears as a debtor, or even as a spousal signatory. (Did Carlene even know about the BK filings? It makes more sense that she would be in the dark about the BKs than that her husband was in the dark about the mortgage arrearage.) Although the household income keeps rising, there are no increases in bank accounts or other debts or assets that can account for where the money goes every month. In the first BK, filed just over a year and half after the purchase of the home and a year after the first foreclosure attempt, Balderrama's debt-to-income ratio as a mortgage lender would calculate it was 41%, including the Chapter 13 payment. By the last BK, the DTI was 29%. There is no indication that Balderrama's mortgage payment increased; in fact if the debtor's filing is correct it decreased (from $1740 in the first filing to $1703 in the last).

It seems quite obvious that these filings were intended solely to stay foreclosure rather than to deal with crippling debt payments and reduced income. Yet Balderrama never cooperated with the court or made an effort to make payments, resulting in serial dismissals. Even on the assumption that the household budget in a Chapter 13 is often unrealistically tight, I just can't see from the paperwork why the Balderramas couldn't pay their house and car payment and the arrearage installments.

Are these folks debt-bingers? Apparently not. They've had exactly two debts in the last six years: a house payment and a car payment. Did they buy an overpriced home with a mortgage that instantly went upside down? It doesn't look like it. If Zillow is to be believed, the mortgage has never been upside down and was probably quite close to break-even when the foreclosure was completed (including arrearages in the loan amount). Victims of job loss or serious illness? Doesn't look like it. Victims of a predatory lender squeezing them with an exploding ARM in a falling RE market? The BK paperwork suggests that that claim is ridiculous.

Nonetheless, by this morning ABC news got ahold of the story. A new detail:
But for one reason or another, it appeared that Carlene Balderrama decided to deal with the family's flagging finances on her own. O'Berg [our ubiquitous cop quote-bot] said that according to Balderrama's husband, John, Carlene handled all of the family's financial matters.

"I had no clue," John Balderrama told The Associated Press on Wednesday, adding that Carlene had hidden from him the fact that she hadn't paid the mortgage in 42 months.​
Mr. Balderrama filed two bankruptcies during the last 42 months. But he had no idea his mortgage payments were in arrears? Are we supposed to believe that Carlene Balderrama forged her husband's signature on the BK filings and suborned the perjury of at least one attorney? How else do we square this claim of ignorance with the BK records?

Little details like that, however, don't stop the ABC reporter or his psychologist quote-bots:
"Suicide is certainly a response to hard economic times," noted Dr. Harold Koenig, professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Duke University Medical Center in Durham, N.C. "Consider what happened when the stock market fell in 1929. There was a rash of suicides."​
Well, John Kenneth Galbraith labelled that "rash of suicides" a "myth" in 1955, and if anyone has more recent hard data that says otherwise, I'd like to see it. Before we construct another myth about the Great RE Crash of 2008 with the same kind of "data."

I do not doubt for a moment that Carlene Balderrama was under severe psychological stress. Whatever kept her going through six years of an inability to make her mortgage payments, clearly the reality of the day of foreclosure sale was too much to bear. What I do object to is the transformation of this story into an urban legend about "predatory lenders" and the effects of an RE downturn based on no evidence whatsoever. I object to these reporters' unwillingness to deal with the facts available to them that surely complicate this currently popular narrative. I object to cops running off at the mouth with unsubstantiated claims and a husband and his co-worker heaping blame for the family's financial woes on a dead woman who can no longer defend herself, and I surely object to it when it gets used to slander a mortgage servicer who was, apparently, the only party involved who ever took this woman seriously enough to call 911.

If anybody can explain to me how this series of reports on Carlene Balderrama's suicide are anything other than exploitation of her tragedy in order to support an overwrought rhetoric that sees every foreclosure that has occurred in the last year or so as "predatory" and "unnecessary," then please do so in the comments. I am not seeing it.

Read more wretchedness.


http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/07/foreclosure-crisis-and-exploitation-of.html



Confessions of a Sub-Prime Lender
http://www.comedycentral.com/videos/index.jhtml?videoId=177062
 
Reading the articles, I'm wondering what my mom's best bet is on selling her house. Her notion right now is to get it on the market before prices go lower, but from what I've seen here, hardly anything is selling because buyers are waiting for prices to drop even more.

It's harder to sell, but there are still homes selling every day. Buyers will still pounce on a good deal. It's just that what's considered a good deal has changed a lot in the past couple years.

The trick is to avoid playing the market and speculating, which is exactly what you and your mother are trying to do right now. Does she need the money from the house for something else right now or within the next couple years? Is she interested in or comfortable with holding such an unstable investment? Would she rather just have the money and put it in the bank in an FDIC insured account paying 3% interest? Those are the questions you both should be asking to see if now is the right time to sell for her.
 
California has a new law that went into effect that when a home is in foreclosure and the bank receives notice regarding taking care of the property, the bank will have 15 days to start to repair the yard and it must be completed after 30 days. After that time, the bank will be fined $1,000, per day for every day that the repairs have not been done.

Our HOA attorneys are already working on it. (!)
 
Gesh.....that is way worse that I thought....


From the WSJ: FirstFed Grapples With Fallout From Payment Option Mortgages
Like many mortgage lenders, FirstFed Financial Corp. is struggling with rising losses. ... Forty percent of its borrowers became at least 30 days delinquent after the payments on their adjustable-rate mortgages were recast. The number of foreclosed homes held by the bank doubled in the second quarter from the first quarter.

But FirstFed isn't another bank grappling with the fallout from subprime mortgages that went to less-creditworthy borrowers. ... [T]he Los Angeles bank is on the front lines of what could be the next big mortgage debacle: payment option mortgages.​
It seems like Tanta and I have been writing about the coming wave of Option ARM defaults forever, but it's only been since 2005!
Barclays Capital estimates that as many as 45% of option ARMs, as they are often called, originated in 2006 and 2007 could wind up in default. Another analysis, by UBS AG, suggests that defaults on option ARMs originated in 2006 could be as high as 48%, slightly higher than its estimate for defaults on subprime loans.​
The key here, for the housing market, is that the next wave of defaults will be hitting middle to upper middle class neighborhoods.

We're all subprime now! (a classic Tanta phrase)
 
The US HOUSING MARKET AND SUBPRIME FINANCIAL CRISIS.

and the reality of it.
 
Countrywide Financial Corp said thousands of borrowers with $25.4 billion in option adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) owe almost as much as their homes are worth ...

Another sign of borrower distress: One in eight is at least 90 days late on payments.

As of June 30, the typical borrower owed 95 percent of the value of his home, up from 76 percent when the loan was made ...

Seventy-two percent of borrowers were making less than full interest payments, and 12.4 percent were at least 90 days delinquent.







http://www.reuters.com/article/fundsFundsNews/idUSN1251538220080812
 
Lewis2008.jpg
 
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