Has North Korea gone too far?

[AsianDream]

International investigators now have fairly incontrovertible proof that North Korea sank the Cheonan - killing 46 South Korea sailors.

The Pentagon has already committed to extra military operations – including joint anti-submarine and military drills with South Korea. Also it is rumored that the 30,000 US troops in South Korea have been placed on increased alert.

One scenario that some of my friends in China think is likely – is that the Chinese Government has grown so concerned about the North Koreans threatening stability in the region that they are trying to do a deal with the USA to allow China to take over direct control North Korea.

While direct control of impoverished North Korea by China would be an economic drain in the short term – in the long term if North Korea was integrated with China it would be of economic benefit to this region.

The land border between North Korea and China is three times the length of the border between North and South Korea – so even if there was any military resistance to Chinese troop movements into North Korea – this would be totally futile (combined with the sheer numbers and quality of weaponry).

In practice the Chinese troops would initially move in to support the North Korean Government against a “US/South Korean” threat and then co-ordinate a “bloodless Coup” and a peaceful regime change in North Korea.

There can be little doubt that the West would be receptive to this idea – with the main considerations of both the Chinese and Western governments being to ensure that this did not “spook” world financial markets.

There would be lot of “Geo-political” logic in this outcome – which would be a good solution to the problem of North Korea – if it actually happens – only History will know – but the space is still worth watching.

 

[Kyanimal]

I'm liking the sound of that scenario. The instability, and unpredictability, of North Korea has become a threat to Everyone!

However, I'm not all that sure how South Korea, Japan, or Russia, would feel about that "arrangement". Granted it would bring more stability to the region. But, would everyone else be Happy with it?

Now, if China would agree to cede North Korea to South Korea, after the coup, then maybe ...

Of course that could all fall apart if the Press got wind of it!

Keep smilin'!! (And hoping!)
Chaz

 

[NotThatCreative]

International investigators now have fairly incontrovertible proof that North Korea sank the Cheonan - killing 46 South Korea sailors.

The Pentagon has already committed to extra military operations – including joint anti-submarine and military drills with South Korea. Also it is rumored that the 30,000 US troops in South Korea have been placed on increased alert.

One scenario that some of my friends in China think is likely – is that the Chinese Government has grown so concerned about the North Koreans threatening stability in the region that they are trying to do a deal with the USA to allow China to take over direct control North Korea.

While direct control of impoverished North Korea by China would be an economic drain in the short term – in the long term if North Korea was integrated with China it would be of economic benefit to this region.

The land border between North Korea and China is three times the length of the border between North and South Korea – so even if there was any military resistance to Chinese troop movements into North Korea – this would be totally futile (combined with the sheer numbers and quality of weaponry).

In practice the Chinese troops would initially move in to support the North Korean Government against a “US/South Korean” threat and then co-ordinate a “bloodless Coup” and a peaceful regime change in North Korea.

There can be little doubt that the West would be receptive to this idea – with the main considerations of both the Chinese and Western governments being to ensure that this did not “spook” world financial markets.

There would be lot of “Geo-political” logic in this outcome – which would be a good solution to the problem of North Korea – if it actually happens – only History will know – but the space is still worth watching.

Iran's being an attention hog. The poor wittle Dear Leader feels left out.

I've heard explanations along those lines before, but I don't buy them. Supreme Leader Chairman Supreme Commander General Secretary Kim Jong Il is an incredibly cunning man who's been playing the world for fools for years. He gets total control of a country, a (small) nuclear arsenal, kingly living, and food handouts from the world so he doesn't even have to worry too much about his starving people. Well played.

That being said, I doubt this is so much of a much. It's been nearly 11 months since we discovered he might have pancreatic cancer. The prognosis on that is really terrible. Something like 70% of those diagnosed die within three years of the diagnosis. If he's planning on passing power to Kim Jong-Un, as is widely thought he will be, then he needs to make some noise and get the people and the higher ups to rally around a potential threat to their sovereignty.

As far as troops being placed on high alert is concerned, that's also not that unusual. With merely a ceasefire between North and South, they threaten each other and put their troops on high alert fairly regularly. The only part of this story that's worse than normal is the sinking of the ship. And even that's only worse because a ship was actually successfully sunk. It's not like it's highly unusual for their ships to take a couple of shots at each other every year or so.

In regard to the idea of Chinese takeover of the North. I'd be surprised if the South would ever approve of having China on their border in such a manner. It's a sticky problem of that there's no doubt. The status quo is everyone's second choice, and so I don't see it changing. The South would like to see a friendly Northern government or perhaps even a Greater Korea. The Chinese may be looking into such an intervention as you describe as the best way to keep their borders stable. The US is caught on what to support because Japan isn't exactly keen on a Greater Korea. The only thing the various sides of this want less than the status quo is each other's solutions to the problem.

 

[AsianDream]

In regard to the idea of Chinese takeover of the North. I'd be surprised if the South would ever approve of having China on their border in such a manner. It's a sticky problem of that there's no doubt. The status quo is everyone's second choice, and so I don't see it changing. The South would like to see a friendly Northern government or perhaps even a Greater Korea. The Chinese may be looking into such an intervention as you describe as the best way to keep their borders stable. The US is caught on what to support because Japan isn't exactly keen on a Greater Korea. The only thing the various sides of this want less than the status quo is each other's solutions to the problem.

One difference is that South Korean public opinion is very angry at the moment

They're not only feeling sad at the deaths of their young men - but also feel the "loss of face" at seeming to be impotent and ineffectual.

I'm fairly convinced that what would have been South Korea's second choice over the status quo is now their prefered option. This would have always been the Japanese prefered option rather than a greater Korea.

While I don't accept that there are big differences between western and eastern cultures - the concept of "loss of face" is more important in eastern cultures.

 

[NotThatCreative]

One difference is that South Korean public opinion is very angry at the moment

They're not only feeling sad at the deaths of their young men - but also feel the "loss of face" at seeming to be impotent and ineffectual.

I'm fairly convinced that what would have been South Korea's second choice over the status quo is now their prefered option. This would have always been the Japanese prefered option rather than a greater Korea.

While I don't accept that there are big differences between western and eastern cultures - the concept of "loss of face" is more important in eastern cultures.

You think the solution the Southerners are looking for in regard to loss of face is to have the Chinese take care of it for them? I very much doubt it. The South may have moved the status quo down to their third choice, as a people, but geopolitically the government would not want that. When the current anger/embarrassment fades away, the South will go back to the preference order as it existed before this incident.

Everyone's making a big deal of this right now, just like when Kim Jong-Il gets it in his head to test some missile or when he tested the North's nuclear capability. But, as then, I don't foresee anything changing.

It's also possible the only thing keeping him from making use of his nuclear weaponry is the guarantee he won't have a country to rule over once he does. If that is the case, then backing him into a corner and taking away rule of the country from him could prove to have disastrous consequences, for Koreans and/or Chinese.

 

[AsianDream]

You think the solution the Southerners are looking for in regard to loss of face is to have the Chinese take care of it for them? I very much doubt it. The South may have moved the status quo down to their third choice, as a people, but geopolitically the government would not want that. When the current anger/embarrassment fades away, the South will go back to the preference order as it existed before this incident.

Everyone's making a big deal of this right now, just like when Kim Jong-Il gets it in his head to test some missile or when he tested the North's nuclear capability. But, as then, I don't foresee anything changing.

It's also possible the only thing keeping him from making use of his nuclear weaponry is the guarantee he won't have a country to rule over once he does. If that is the case, then backing him into a corner and taking away rule of the country from him could prove to have disastrous consequences, for Koreans and/or Chinese.

The main thing that would stop North Korea using nuclear weapons at the moment – is that they are such a poor country they haven’t yet managed to get fully working versions of these – while medium ranking countries like Israel, Pakistan, India and South Africa have managed to develop these.

Richer countries like Britain, France and China have had nuclear weapons for over 50 years – while the USA and Russia for the last 65 and 60 years respectively.

Nevertheless – North Korea – even though dirt poor - will develop nuclear weapons and effective delivery systems if given enough time.

So this does impose a timetable for “solving” the problem of North Korea – before they become vastly more difficult to tackle.

 

[jackoroe]

Maybe the UN will, after much hand wringing, bring forth another stinging condemnation of North Korea. That'll teach 'em!

 

[TomahawkEagle]

I don't get how the South Korean navy couldn't detect North Korean military activity. Surely the Republic of Korea's military hardware is better than the North's, isn't it? It'll be scary if it isn't.

 

[Jack Springer]

So what you all are saying is that North Korea is evil.

I think I've heard that from someone else before . . . .

 

[T-Rexx]

North Korea will never allow the Chinese in without a fight.

And the Chinese do not have the courage to discipline their crazy friends in North Korea.

This problem could be fixed bloodlessly with an effective economic blockade of North Korea, and some diplomatic arm-twisting by China. But it will go on forever because China will never allow it to be fixed.

 

[T-Rexx]

I don't get how the South Korean navy couldn't detect North Korean military activity. Surely the Republic of Korea's military hardware is better than the North's, isn't it? It'll be scary if it isn't.

It was a submarine.

How is it that the US Navy can't detect its own submarines sufficiently to avoid collision with its own vessels? U.S. Submarine, Navy Ship Collide in Hormuz Strait.

How is it that US nuclear submarines can't detect civilian vessels on the surface sufficiently to avoid colliding with them (and sinking them)? US Sub Sinks Japanese Training Ship.

How is it that British and French submarines can't detect each other sufficiently to avoid colliding in mid-ocean?

 

[NotThatCreative]

The main thing that would stop North Korea using nuclear weapons at the moment – is that they are such a poor country they haven’t yet managed to get fully working versions of these – while medium ranking countries like Israel, Pakistan, India and South Africa have managed to develop these.

Richer countries like Britain, France and China have had nuclear weapons for over 50 years – while the USA and Russia for the last 65 and 60 years respectively.

Nevertheless – North Korea – even though dirt poor - will develop nuclear weapons and effective delivery systems if given enough time.

So this does impose a timetable for “solving” the problem of North Korea – before they become vastly more difficult to tackle.

The problem with all that is that you're behind the times. N. Korea has nukes already. Only about half a dozen or so, and not very strong ones, but they've got them, and S. Korea, China, and Japan are all within their reach.

So what you all are saying is that North Korea is evil.

I think I've heard that from someone else before . . . .

Simply because we fucked up in Iraq doesn't mean there aren't actually regimes out there we need to watch out for. Kim Jong-Il has shown that he really doesn't give a shit about the welfare of his people. The only thing that keeps him at bay is power, wealth, and Kim Jong-Un.

North Korea will never allow the Chinese in without a fight.

And the Chinese do not have the courage to discipline their crazy friends in North Korea.

This problem could be fixed bloodlessly with an effective economic blockade of North Korea, and some diplomatic arm-twisting by China. But it will go on forever because China will never allow it to be fixed.

China, understandable, would rather have the status quo than chaos. They don't want North Korean refugees flooding their border, and they certainly don't want the half dozen or so nuclear weapons in N. Korea to be out of the hands of the government. The devil they know...

 

[Kulindahr]

The status quo isn't far removed from chaos -- it's just a chaos China thinks it can profit from.

But who can really believe the world would welcome China taking over? Their human rights record sucks, just for starters, and their policy toward other nations they conquer is genocide-by-absorption. The Chinese leadership, regardless of their supposed Communist ideology, still view China as "the middle kingdom", the realm that is the center of the world, the one everything is supposed to revolve around. If they conquered North Korea, their policy would be as it has been for thousands of years: absorb the conquered people until their grandchildren or great-grandchildren are just another variety of Chinese, their own culture buried, their identity lost.

If the old men in Beijing think they can get away with it, they'll do it, and the North Koreans can kiss their identity as a people good-bye. But the only reason they could get away with it would be if the West lounges spinelessly.

 

[AsianDream]

The status quo isn't far removed from chaos -- it's just a chaos China thinks it can profit from.

But who can really believe the world would welcome China taking over? Their human rights record sucks, just for starters, and their policy toward other nations they conquer is genocide-by-absorption. The Chinese leadership, regardless of their supposed Communist ideology, still view China as "the middle kingdom", the realm that is the center of the world, the one everything is supposed to revolve around. If they conquered North Korea, their policy would be as it has been for thousands of years: absorb the conquered people until their grandchildren or great-grandchildren are just another variety of Chinese, their own culture buried, their identity lost.

If the old men in Beijing think they can get away with it, they'll do it, and the North Koreans can kiss their identity as a people good-bye. But the only reason they could get away with it would be if the West lounges spinelessly.

I suspect the West - and more importantly South Korea and Japan - would prefer the prospect of North Korea being part of China than of the status Quo.

I'd be the first to say that the Chinese Regime has an appalling human rights record – probably more significantly – the Chinese authorities have so far shown themselves not very willing to tackle corruption. Corruption (especially at the local level) is far more of a source for discontent amongst ordinary Chinese people than the lack of human rights.

In fairness to the Chinese government – they have been much more pragmatic in Hong Kong than most people thought they would be. Also increasingly there are a younger group of technocrats that have a lot of influence on policy (though “Young” in the Chinese bureaucracy means anyone under 60!).

The Chinese Leadership does tend to play for long term goals. I personally think their relatively good behavior in Hong Kong is partly a “Charm” offensive to persuade Taiwan to one day “return to the fold”.

There is no doubt that China is doing everything it can to increase the dependence of Taiwan on trade with China – while also using Hong Kong to demonstrate to the people of Taiwan that the “one country – two systems” idea works.

I think that if China takes over control of North Korea – they would probably be a lot more sophisticated than the brutal suppression tactics used in Tibet.

One major factor in the equation is that the Chaebol in South Korea have a lot of influence in politics there (just as corporations do in the USA) and would welcome a new source of labour and new markets for their products. Its almost certain that opening up North Korea to South Korean investment would be part of the Chinese tactics – while still keeping the North under their control.