How do you think the Supreme Court will rule in Hollingsworth v Perry (Prop 8 case)?

[scream4ever]

As you all know, the Supreme Court has agreed to hear this case, and will rule by the end of June.

I predict they will deny standing to the proponents, thus letting Walker's original ruling stand and resulting in same-sex marriage returning to California, while not ruling on the merits of the case. In fact, I think this is the main reason they took this case. Standing has long been a murky issue in federal court, with the conservative justices being very strict about it. I still think it was ridiculous of the 9th Circuit to grant it in the first place.

What do you guys think?

 

[JayHawk]

I agree with you. The SCOTUS will not make a judgement that could potentially affect any other State.

 

[Kyanimal]

I'm also thinking the eventual ruling re: CA will be in our favor.

However, I'm not as confident about the possible outcome of the second case coming up. It will likely hinge on Roberts. Here's HOPING, though!

Of course ... no matter what ...

Keep smilin'!!
Chaz

 

[Rolyo85]

Well, to be fair, we have won five times more cases on DOMA than on Prop 8...

 

[scream4ever]

^^^Really? Everyone is saying Windsor is a slam dunk, and I gotta say I agree. The concept of "state's rights" is likely to convince even some of the conservative justices, notably Roberts and possibly even Alito.

 

[Rolyo85]

I just meant 10 courts have found DOMA unconstitutional, and Prop 8 only lost two cases. Not that they've HAD more.

 

[JayHawk]

Well I have said many times before I have zero experience with SCOTUS except for hearing their decisions. SO it is in the blind. However, I read a slate article that I am having trouble finding that suggested as much. Being overly pessimistic on the issue I tended to easily agree.

As was pointed out to me in the HT thread on this, the SCOTUS could reject standing and still rule on the merits of the section III of DOMA.

 

[rareboy]

My greatest fear is that it is what Scalia will say and do that will influence the future of homos more than a split decision.

There is no question but that Roberts is the most important Justice on the SC at the moment.

This will be likely his greatest legacy decision while on the bench. Let us hope that he looks to the civilized nations and states and rules in accordance with granting equality.

You all do realize that if the SC rules against homo marriage in any way...homos all around the world will likely suffer as the religious right is emboldened to export their campaign and roll back rights already granted in other countries.

Even here in Canuckistan, I can see the whackhead talibangelicals that now form a nucleus of the Conservative party pushing to get gay marriage overturned.

 

[scream4ever]

I'm actually going to speculate and say that Roberts voted to grant cert because of the standing issue, which is really what I think this entire case is now about/will turn into.

As far as Kennedy, I will bet a year's salary that he will rule in our favor, considering how heavy this case draws off Romer v Evans, and also because such a ruling against us would greatly tarnish his legacy.