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Iraq from a different viewpoint..Inside

Roland I think the most likely realpolitik outcome of an Iraqi-Iranian friendship given the suspicion Iran already enjoys in the Arab world is a middle east broken down along religious lines with Shia Iran and Iraq on one side and the other Sunni arab countries on the other.

If the price of dumping Saddam is a middle east where a new religious divide takes hold I'm not sure we're better off but I am sure we should not pay for the change.

But yes I suppose it is better than what we have now.

How is that any different than the previous divide where saudia arabia and iran feared iraq? Sure there may be minor differences about the seriousness of the threat, and the borders of which country fears which country is different than it was before, but overall big picture business as usual in the mid east.

The problem about the current mess is there are no clear cut borders. No its just anarchy, killing, and the possibility of an even larger civil destruction/chaos/ethnic attrocities (not a civil war for civil war need political entities, no its far worse the death and mayhem of a civil war without knowing who side you are on).

1.6 to 2 million people have fled Iraq since 2003 to neighboring countries (that is .07 to .09 percent of the country if that many people left the us it would be 21 to 27 million people). By this many people fleeing you risk the chance of spreading this chaos to neighboring states. Furthermore such chaos generates more radical people such as terrorists who use things such as bombs to kill civilians and try to overthrow governments, there is a chance that circumstances may change and they now use those same skill against other targets.

I can go on, but I don't have the energy to do so.
 
Not to put too fine a point on it smelter but I don't think you have much to worry about. At this stage I don't see how its possible for Bush's bacon to be saved. Conditions may improve in Iraq but I don't think the eventual outcome will be deemed to have been worth the price to us.

All thats left to determine is the degree of disaster and the magnitude of the mistake.
I guess my point is that Bush has fucked this up so badly, its easy to fall into the trap of allowing hatred for him to blur what's best for America .... thats all. :(
 
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