Is Everyone Running Out to Buy Mega Millions Lottery Tickets?

[Alistair]

A year later and it’s up to $1.05 Billion. Anyone playing? I bought 5 tickets for last nights drawing. Someone has to eventually win and I have the same odds that they do.

 

[metta]

I don't buy them, but good luck!

 

[Vannie]

Mine mine mine!!!

 

[Kahaih]

A year later and it’s up to $1.05 Billion. Anyone playing? I bought 5 tickets for last nights drawing. Someone has to eventually win and I have the same odds that they do.

Bring me back something good!

 

[Dargelos]

It is a popular fallacy, which gambling companies are not inclined to dispel, that buying more tickets increases one's chance of winning. It will do so if it's a jumble sale in your local church hall but when the payout is so huge the odds become so small as to approach infinitely small. When you buy two tickets instead of one you are not twice as likely to win, your odds go from infinity minus one to infinity minus two which in human terms is effectively the same. You would need to buy a million tickets to obtain a reasonable chance of winning. But someone has to win don't they? Yes, certainly, and that person is the promoter.

 

[Alistair]

Still no winner. An estimated jackpot of 1.55 billion.

 

[unloadonme]

... your odds go from infinity minus one to infinity minus two which in human terms is effectively the same ...

On a point of pedantry, in mathematical terms, they're exactly the same and both equal infinity.

 

[Dargelos]

True. Does that mean that you agree that it is a waste of money to buy more than one lottery ticket?

 

[unloadonme]

True. Does that mean that you agree that it is a waste of money to buy more than one lottery ticket?

I don't necessarily accept that. My starting point would be to say that the chances of winning are not 1 in infinity (which is a mathematical nonsense), but instead they are 1 in 1 billion (or whatever). If one buys two tickets, the odds become 2 in 1 billion which is still negligibly small, but twice what they were before. As to whether the second ticket is a waste of money, I'd say that that's entirely a personal decision.

 

[Dargelos]

It is always remains everyone's right to throw their money down whichever drain they choose, maths or no maths.

 

[cityboy-stl]

But yet....eventually someone will win. You can't win if you don't play. Just be responsible about it.

I am part of a pool with some others. We each put in $2. Together we more chances. It is also very fun to do it that way.

 

[Alistair]

If you feel that the first ticket isn’t a waste of money, how is the second ticket a waste of money when it has the exact same odds as the first?

Odds of winning on the mega millions

 

[Vannie]

If I win I will split it evenly with all you.

 

[Dargelos]

At those astronomical odds, you are not buying the chance to win, all that you are buying with one ticket is the chance to fantasise. How many pairs of Andrew Christian will I be able to buy? Twenty at least. Maybe more.
With two tickets you have in theory twice the chance of winning but when the chances of you dropping dead between buying the ticket and the result being called are so enormously greater than that winning chance, the combined odds are in effect the same. But you do still have the same opportunity to fantasise, only this time it has cost twice as much.

 

[Thad1527]

Well, I just spent $10 on it. Not expecting much return, though. If a major miracle happens Tuesday night, we are having one unserious party.

But I played in Pennsylvania, whose lottery has never been very good to me. I've done better in NJ, NY, CT, and VT. I've done worse in MD and DE