Many historians see little chance for McCain

[metta]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080615/pl_politico/11090;_ylt=AoM8pfDepdxG2jMa1y2oNbsDW7oF

One week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chance, if any.

“This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

What’s more, Republicans have held the presidency for all but 12 years since the South became solidly Republican in the realignment of 1968 — which is among the longest runs with one party dominating in American history. “These things go in cycles,” said presidential historian Robert Dallek, a professor at the University of California at Los Angeles. “The public gets tired of one approach to politics. There is always a measure of optimism in this country, so they turn to the other party.”

But the biggest obstacle in McCain’s path may be running in the same party as the most unpopular president America has had since at least the advent of modern polling. Only Harry Truman and Nixon — both of whom were dogged by unpopular wars abroad and political scandals at home — have been nearly as unpopular in their last year in office, and both men’s parties lost the presidency in the following election.

 

[Soilwork]

I dont know about "dead heat."

Maybe in Texas.

Nationally, Obama is a good 6-8 points up above McCain.

No matter how much mud they sling at Barrack, he's able to rise above it. John McCain just doesn't have the ability to beat that. At this point, John McCain is running against his own spotty record.

Years of marketing himself as "Mr. Straight Talk" and "a Maverick" all came crashing down as soon as people took a closer look.

I never count out dirty tricks, of course, but yeah.. I think John McCain's career is over.

 

[Croynan]

i don't trust the American voters who will at the last moment make their decision in the polling booth - and say better go with McCain.

and if some of the Hillary followers are already saying this, this could cause a great deal of trouble.

the question will end up being - are Americans willing to vote for drastic change or will they go with the status quo and go for McCain?

eM.

 

[GL]

irrelevant of what the historians say, people still need to get out and vote.

but at the same time i'm hopeful the historians are right.

 

[G-Lexington]

I think I've heard this talk before.
In 2004.
When it was inevitable that John Kerry would win.

Every year, during the World Series or Super Bowl or any other championship game, they pull out stats to show that "No team has ever won this unless...." Which just means no one has done it. Yet. And then, a lot of the time, some team does. So they retire that factoid and find another one for next year.

The main thing working in Obama's favor may not be his oratory skills or his charisma. It may be the fact that the GOP isn't all that crazy about their own candidate. The biggest pushes from the Republicans in the last 30 years have been for what you might call their "tabula rasa" candidates - Reagan and Shrub. Rather vacant folks they can put in the White House and then surround with policy-makers. McCain certainly doesn't fall into that category - he's got his own ideas. Which is why he may be doomed to fail.

Lex

 

[looseliam]

We're in for a good rogering no matter what.

 

[pjlikesporn]

I hope Obama wins, but the Dems have a remarkable ability at losing un-losable elections.

 

[Thespar]

Considering the McCain said that getting the troops out of Iraq is unimportant on the Today show, I really don't see him getting elected.

 

[CGHJ]

It seems like such a slam dunk but I am not going to celebrate until the Big O has has hand on that bible.

We all remember Carter getting trounced in 80 but Reagan actually only won something like 50.7% of the popular vote...it's juat that he won in in all the electoral states that counted. And Gore actually did win the popular vote.

Never underestimate the basic stupidity of the American electorate, or their ability to be swayed by total bullshit. How many people thought--and prolly still think (people on this board even who should know better!)--that Saddam Hussein had something to do with 9-11.

God only knows what will happen between now and the election. I absolutely guarantee Osama bin Laden is going to release a tape about 4 days before the election crowing that the fact that we're about to elect a president with the middle name Hussein is a vindication of Al Quaida and proof that he's winning. Osama knows perfectly well what effect this will have, he needs McCain in office because without permanent war there's no chance of him bleeding the West dry. Do you think the American people will have the intelligence to see through this? I don't.

Remember Jasun, we talked about this, now you're going and getting your hopes up again

 

[G-Lexington]

Let's say I'm cautiously optimistic.

Lex

 

[cityboy-stl]

Many historians see little chance for McCain -

All I can say is "GOOD".

 

[Críostóir]

Well, much as this is good news, I'd just have to say that going by history an African-American can't possibly get elected to the Presidency.

We're making history all the time these days. Either candidate's victory would be unprecedented; barring a death, new history will be made this year.

It's also not good to underestimate the enemy. Fear, hatred, racism, and lies (all of which overlap) are tools the Republican Party (I mean the people who run things, not the people they've duped into voting for them) has become expert at using, and will not hesitate to use in this election. They'll use them deniably, as they did with the Swift Boat liars, but they'll use them.

And we're more constrained than they are. They have absolutely no honor, no respect for American ideals, and absolutely no care for the good of the American people as a whole--they care only for their own continued power, which maintains their own continued and increasing wealth. We have to win under the constraints of being honorable Americans who care about our country and our people, which puts us at a disadvantage against them. If we stoop to their tactics, our victory will be in name only.

I'm optimistic about Obama's chances, but not complacent. It will be a hard and dirty fight. Like I said, either candidate's victory would be unprecedented.

We're going to have to work hard to make sure it's Obama's.