Nuclear Iran, the detriments of an oil driven world.

[Serenx55]

Hello guys & gals. Let me start this post saying I'd like to avoid involving religion.

As many of you know, Iran today has officially started the enrichment of uranium. This has cause outrage and worry for many across the world including Israel and Saudi Arabia. I personally believe that Iran tactically even if obtaining highly enriched uranium will not attack another nation. However it does not take physical attack to create quite a situation all due to Iranian influences in the oil economy.
Now for many of you who are familiar with western agriculture, should know that it completely oil dependent from shipping to picking. As such without oil we risk major food shortages in parts of the world (a tractor can pick in 1 day what 100 humans pick; imagine a world where you can no longer use that tractor) . This effectively means we could quickly reach the Kcap( or the biological capacity of the human race) on the Earth if the oil trade is interfered with.
Returning to the actual situation now. We have reached a point where we could have a Iran with Nukes of which could drive up oil prices and or flex its muscles and force the world to intervene. Or we risk a strike from Israel upon Iran which will destroy the enrichment plant but completely upset Middle Eastern politics and even retaliation.
This may be my hindsight but we are in a catch-22. Either way this will create havoc in the world. Now I don't want to pretend like I'm just a pessimist. There is hope within the world and in the spirits of man that we could truly avoid this future. However I unfortunately do not see the hope or light in this situation. Lets hope there is some to come.

Post Away.

 

[Centexfarmer]

As such without oil we risk major food shortages in parts of the world (a tractor can pick in 1 day what 100 humans pick; imagine a world where you can no longer use that tractor) . This effectively means we could quickly reach the Kcap( or the biological capacity of the human race) on the Earth if the oil trade is interfered with.

Look at all of the resources that are currently at stake, and not just the political realities.

As a human race we only require four necessities; food, clothing, water, shelter.

What's at stake is the energy to produce and deliver those four necessities.

When any number of a group of humans feel that their ability to provide for themselves those four necessities are threatened, whether that group be an individual, a tribe, a country, a region, a government, then there's conflict.

Either Iran feels threatened, and therefore considers itself in need of an additional energy source to provide for its people, or its government truly wants to disrupt the political alliances within that region.

If you ask me, Pakistan is more of a Nuclear threat this very moment, than anything that's going on in Iran.

Think about it. They're already a Nuclear power. Their Government appears incapable of standing up against the Taliban, they now have millions of homeless people due to the recent floods, and could very possibly be the most unstable government in the entire region.

Iran, in my opinion, is far more "contained" and "stable" than other parts of that region.

Mi dos centavos.

 

[Kulindahr]

I'm going to cheer for my favorite underused technology here: once again we have a good reason for building "anything to oil" thermal depolymerization plants, which can turn anything made from petroleum, anything high in fat, and a lot of other things into oil. Further, the process can be tuned, turning out heating oil or diesel (the ones they have down the best), plus a lot of organics that precipitate out along the way, which can be mixed with a few other things to yield artificial topsoil or organic fertilizer. Metals also fall out during the process, so things like shoes that have any metal parts, broken plastic toys, studded tires, and a lot more can be fed in without the tedious work of extracting the metals first.

Thanks mostly to government interference, the process has hardly proven profitable. But in urban areas, with trash disposal space a serious problem, this could be a solution: of the 450+ million tons of municipal waste produced every year in the United States, over two-thirds could serve as feed stock: all discarded clothing, most broken toys, asphalt roofing, waste lumber, all unrecyclable plastics, restaurant waste, most medical waste, discarded furniture, old magazines and phone books, old tires, car interiors, yard waste, and even sewage solids can feed the input end of the process.

Estimates of how much this would save in oil imports range from 20% to 40%, depending greatly on assumptions. The latest price per gallon of the oil produced is about $2.00. Where the feed stock is free, as it would be from many sources, the profit is thin percentage-wise, but for municipal waste, where there is almost always a charge for disposal, the profits could rival those of the big oil companies.

Trash to oil might not get us off imported oil, but it would be a big step. It would certainly replace everything we get from Iran -- and that in itself would drop world oil prices.

 

[Serenx55]

I'm going to cheer for my favorite underused technology here: once again we have a good reason for building "anything to oil" thermal depolymerization plants, which can turn anything made from petroleum, anything high in fat, and a lot of other things into oil. Further, the process can be tuned, turning out heating oil or diesel (the ones they have down the best), plus a lot of organics that precipitate out along the way, which can be mixed with a few other things to yield artificial topsoil or organic fertilizer. Metals also fall out during the process, so things like shoes that have any metal parts, broken plastic toys, studded tires, and a lot more can be fed in without the tedious work of extracting the metals first.

Thanks mostly to government interference, the process has hardly proven profitable. But in urban areas, with trash disposal space a serious problem, this could be a solution: of the 450+ million tons of municipal waste produced every year in the United States, over two-thirds could serve as feed stock: all discarded clothing, most broken toys, asphalt roofing, waste lumber, all unrecyclable plastics, restaurant waste, most medical waste, discarded furniture, old magazines and phone books, old tires, car interiors, yard waste, and even sewage solids can feed the input end of the process.

Estimates of how much this would save in oil imports range from 20% to 40%, depending greatly on assumptions. The latest price per gallon of the oil produced is about $2.00. Where the feed stock is free, as it would be from many sources, the profit is thin percentage-wise, but for municipal waste, where there is almost always a charge for disposal, the profits could rival those of the big oil companies.

Trash to oil might not get us off imported oil, but it would be a big step. It would certainly replace everything we get from Iran -- and that in itself would drop world oil prices.

My knowledge of chemistry outside of the biological metabolism's is limited. However fatty acid chains being synthesized into ethanol is going to require how much energy to start up?

 

[Serenx55]

Look at all of the resources that are currently at stake, and not just the political realities.

As a human race we only require four necessities; food, clothing, water, shelter.

What's at stake is the energy to produce and deliver those four necessities.

When any number of a group of humans feel that their ability to provide for themselves those four necessities are threatened, whether that group be an individual, a tribe, a country, a region, a government, then there's conflict.

Either Iran feels threatened, and therefore considers itself in need of an additional energy source to provide for its people, or its government truly wants to disrupt the political alliances within that region.

If you ask me, Pakistan is more of a Nuclear threat this very moment, than anything that's going on in Iran.

Think about it. They're already a Nuclear power. Their Government appears incapable of standing up against the Taliban, they now have millions of homeless people due to the recent floods, and could very possibly be the most unstable government in the entire region.

Iran, in my opinion, is far more "contained" and "stable" than other parts of that region.

Mi dos centavos.

Pakistan has a nice neighbor ( India).
You're implying that Iran's intent is energy only. This is hindsight as we do not know in the end what their plan is.

 

[Kulindahr]

My knowledge of chemistry outside of the biological metabolism's is limited. However fatty acid chains being synthesized into ethanol is going to require how much energy to start up?

Not into ethanol -- into oil. The process can be tuned to give heating oil; the one commercial plant that's operating in the U.S. turns out a fuel oil for generating electricity.

Once a plant is up and running, it produces methanol as a side product. Depending on the feed stock, some plants would not only produce enough electricity to run themselves but a surplus to sell to the grid. Also, depending on the feedstock, large amounts of CO2 may be produced, and one investor told them to put plants where there's space to work with -- and build greenhouses; the interesting aspect there is that a plant could produce artificial topsoil to put in the greenhouses, water them with the water that comes off as a byproduct, and pump in CO2 to make the plants grow faster... and then afterward, all the leaves and stalks go back into the process (along with any bugs, slugs, snails, spiders....).

The big start-up energy requirement is heat. Once a plant is going, it produces LOTS of heat, and in the last stages that heat has to be drawn off. Where do they send it? Back to the start, to heat up the first stages! So once a plant is running, it provides not only methane for its own electricity, but heat for its own processes. Another big start-up requirement is water, but for most feed stocks, they get back more water than the plant can use -- so water losses aren't a worry (in fact what comes out is clean enough to send right to municipal water plants for chlorination.

So compared to most biofuels, its energy input is small, once you figure in the methane and heat generated.

 

[Centexfarmer]

Pakistan has a nice neighbor ( India).

Actually if I understand correctly Pakistan developed its Nuclear arsenal to defend itself from India, and their Nuclear arsenal.

You're implying that Iran's intent is energy only.

Not implying. It seems to be everyone else that's implying that's it's something more than.

This is hindsight as we do not know in the end what their plan is.

And when the world is dealing the likes of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who knows what's real, and what is specious?

I'd prefer to deal with what we know, and Iran being able to develop Nuclear Arsenal isn't a proposition that I'd be comfortable with.

 

[Kulindahr]

Actually if I understand correctly Pakistan developed its Nuclear arsenal to defend itself from India, and their Nuclear arsenal.

Yep.

Not implying. It seems to be everyone else that's implying that's it's something more than.

I'd say everyone's worried it's something "more than".

And when the world is dealing the likes of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who knows what's real, and what is specious?

I'd prefer to deal with what we know, and Iran being able to develop Nuclear Arsenal isn't a proposition that I'd be comfortable with.

Especially when quite a few high-ranking members of their government agree with him, and consider Jews to be sub-human animals that pollute the world wherever they are.