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Professor who accurately predicted trump win in 2016 predicts another trump win

Only 25 out of 27...hopefully this will be another outlier.

It would be good to look at the cases where the model didn't hold...to see whether there are circumstances similar to today where a wildly unpopular leader was failing daily in managing crisis after crisis in the middle of a pandemic.
 
rareboy said:
Only 25 out of 27...hopefully this will be another outlier.

It would be good to look at the cases where the model didn't hold...to see whether there are circumstances similar to today where a wildly unpopular leader was failing daily in managing crisis after crisis in the middle of a pandemic.
Click to expand...

See, this is the thing. I know a lot of people think Trumpelthinskin is wildly unpopular right now. But I'm not so sure it's true.

Around the Indy area, off the top of my head I personally know 12-15 business owners, and they all have made it clear they will vote for Trump again. Most of my family members have said they will vote for him again. Heck, even my advisor is telling me he's voting for Trump again.

The Trump haters may be loud right now and getting all the attention, but I suspect the Trump supporters are still numerous. They're just quiet.

What if most of them are like me? I refuse to let people know how I feel politically. What if there's another Trump win coming up in 4 months because of all the quiet but deadly voters out there?
 
aristomaniac said:
See, this is the thing. I know a lot of people think Trumpelthinskin is wildly unpopular right now. But I'm not so sure it's true.

Around the Indy area, off the top of my head I personally know 12-15 business owners, and they all have made it clear they will vote for Trump again. Most of my family members have said they will vote for him again. Heck, even my advisor is telling me he's voting for Trump again.

The Trump haters may be loud right now and getting all the attention, but I suspect the Trump supporters are still numerous. They're just quiet.

What if most of them are like me? I refuse to let people know how I feel politically. What if there's another Trump win coming up in 4 months because of all the quiet but deadly voters out there?
Click to expand...

Well that doesn't really address the issue here with the model does it?

We know that Trump has 40% support so we all know how close it is...simply because of the Electoral College in the US.

But my question remains.

Who were the two presidents elected where the model didn't work? And then it might be easier to say whether you should be afraid.
 
aristomaniac said:
Are we fucked?
Click to expand...

Your interrogatory statement^ appears to represent a public indication of “how you feel politically.” (This is a public forum.)

I presume that you performed due diligence before inviting other members to engage in a discussion about this particular prediction model.

Earlier this year when results from The Primary Model were initially published, Dr. Norpoth indicated that a contingency might require him to adjust the prediction. Are you aware of that contingency and how do you think it may affect the findings you have shared from this article which appeared in The Independent?
 
rareboy said:
Who were the two presidents elected where the model didn't work?
Click to expand...

The model failed to predict the correct winner in 1960 and 2000.
 
^ Thanks.

I guess in one case, the election was stolen and in the other..............well....consider the choices.
 
I don't believe this particular model, though it could come true. The myth of the quiet 45 voter is true. However, after seeing the trends in my home state of Virginia; I don't see them suddenly snapping back to red. I also don't think that this model has taken into account the governments disastrous response to the pandemic, the recession, or race relations. Just vote, no matter who your preference is vote.
 
The actual X factor is and always has been the enormous apathy of the American Public and the enormous numbers of people who never vote.

They decide every election.
 
There aren't that many apathetic Americans these days.
 
aristomaniac said:
See, this is the thing. I know a lot of people think Trumpelthinskin is wildly unpopular right now. But I'm not so sure it's true.

Around the Indy area, off the top of my head I personally know 12-15 business owners, and they all have made it clear they will vote for Trump again. Most of my family members have said they will vote for him again. Heck, even my advisor is telling me he's voting for Trump again.

The Trump haters may be loud right now and getting all the attention, but I suspect the Trump supporters are still numerous. They're just quiet.

What if most of them are like me? I refuse to let people know how I feel politically. What if there's another Trump win coming up in 4 months because of all the quiet but deadly voters out there?
Click to expand...

I noticed the same thing. People who I thought were against Trump were just being quiet about it. We won't know until November for sure.
 
If those people stay with Trump after all his shit, we deserve to collapse as a nation. There will not be a US as we know it emerging out of the wreckage.

I don't believe Trump will win, but we CANNOT rest on our laurels...today's polls with 10-15 point Biden leads mean nothing unless all those people show up and vote... or at least have the option of mailing in their votes since COVID-19 may well continue to be a raging force throughout the country as we enter November and our most defining election in a very long time, maybe ever.
 
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