Religion to become "extinct"

[star-warrior]

A study looks into the growth of religious_non-affiliation as the result of mathematical modeling. The results suggest religion will die out as a result of secularism.




Original paper here (PDF)

Abstract

A mathematical model of social group competition with application to the growth of religious non-affiliation

Authors: Daniel M. Abrams, Haley A. Yaple, Richard J. Wiener

When groups compete for members, the resulting dynamics of human social activity may be understandable with simple mathematical models. Here, we apply techniques from dynamical systems and perturbation theory to analyze a theoretical framework for the growth and decline of competing social groups. We present a new treatment of the competition for adherents between religious and irreligious segments of modern secular societies and compile a new international data set tracking the growth of religious non-affiliation. Data suggest a particular case of our general growth law, leading to clear predictions about possible future trends in society.

"News translation"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12811197

The team's mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.

The result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.

 

[Callum]

And it's about fucking time too.

 

[NineOfClubs]

It won't happen, though I wish it would.

"Trends" are so misleading:

‘The number of Elvis Presley impersonators has reached an all-time record high – there are now at least 85,000 Elvis’s around the world, compared to only 170 in 1977 when he died. At this rate of growth, experts predict that by 2019 Elvis impersonators will make up a third of the world population.’

 

[star-warrior]

The weak point in all this is the census data. If you're given a government form to fill in about your personal life, the question is, will they be truthful? Moreover, if the census is asking different things over the years about religion, does that not suggest the data is not talking about the same thing?

Say 100 years ago, you may be asked what religion are you, but today you'd be asked whether you are religious or not. Two different things IMO.

 

[NineOfClubs]

^
But Elvis died in 1977, not 1957. And that suggests an even more rapid growth in Elvis impersonators.

I changed it in the "bad" text I copied. That text was from 2007, I think.

In any case, a world with religion might be better than one with one third being Elvis impersonators.

 

[star-warrior]

The method was applied to languages some years ago by one of the scientists. If you have a minority language in a country which uses a national language which is not the same or similar, say Quechua and Spanish, the Quechua speakers will drop their own native language for the more culturally dominant Spanish. This was a prediction about 'language death' and how over just a few generations, once thriving languages could be lost.

 

[Telstra]

^Starwarrior, one thing the scientists forgot to take into account is that the tendency to be religious is inherited. In fact, at one point, the existence of a "religion gene" was theorized.

Unless somehow that tendency dies out through natural selection, the scientists are wrong, once again.

Religion Gene ? No such thing.

As long as there is no special treatment for religion it can't compete with reasons.

 

[altlover85]

The extremists may end the world before that happens.

 

[Nomenclature]

The extremists may end the world before that happens.

That's probably true, since many religious people are guilty of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. I really hate to incite Godwin's Law, but Hitler is a very famous example of that (the pope wrote letters to him stating that the failed assassination attempt against him was proof that god was protecting him on his mission), and many people are attempting to self-fulfill the prophecies about Israel. That's why America kisses its ass so much with donations and letting it get away with anything.

 

[iwantbig]

unfortunatly it gets a boost every time theres a disaster , everyone starts praying to mythical beings and looking for outcasts and heretics to blame the disaster on

 

[kallipolis]

Josef Stalin attempted to prove that an atheistic state could supplant religion, with intelligent reasoning that would wean the proletariat off their addiction to the opium of the people.

The Soviet Union is dead, and buried.

The Russian Orthodox Church recovered from its years of persecution, and slaughter of its clergy to where it has resumed its place as a pillar of Russian society.

A research study based on several secularised Western countries hardly speaks for the entire planet.

The institution of religion has a way of reinventing itself to serve the needs of those who do not know it all.

Religious, or spiritual belief is another reality that is ignored in this study, and is perhaps much more representative of wider support.

Spiritual beliefs have been part of man's identity since the dawn of homo sapiens, and I have no reason to believe that this reality will evaporate into the ether.

 

[castoono]

I'm just glad that with this news, mankind has conquered another disease.

^^^
so amen

 

[Ninja108]

religion...never has something killed so many...

 

[MTLDude]

If religion were to become extinct, maybe, just maybe, it would mean that people would then take their responsibilities in their personal relationship with God, and stop waiting to others to think in their places!

 

[Harke the Boeotarch]

religion...never has something killed so many...

Religion killed in half a millenium as many as Communism in a century and Fascism in a decade...

 

[kallipolis]

Religion killed in half a millenium as many as Communism in a century and Fascism in a decade...

Come on, Harke - don't upset those posters who revel in their fictional history.

 

[Callum]

I disagree with the jubilation this announcement would bring to some people (I'm not singling you out, Callum; just stating my opinion); what I do agree with is the more extreme factions of organised religion being integrated into more moderate factions. Religion brings beauty into many people's lives (mine included), and to see it completely obliterated would sadden me.

I don't know...I'm assuming that once neurobiologists and medical geneticists isolate the 'God gene' and the 'God part' of the brain, religion will falter.

Once people realize it's all in their heads a social stigma will grow and people won't bother with it anymore.

 

[HoodedRat]

Religion killed in half a millenium as many as Communism in a century and Fascism in a decade...

It could well be argued that both Communism and Fascism ARE forms of religious-based belief-systems.

 

[kallipolis]

It could well be argued that both Communism and Fascism ARE forms of religious-based belief-systems.

What is clear is that the Communists, The Nazis, and The Fascists were religiously devoted to killing as many religious practitioners as their death camps could process.

In that sense the ideological policies of the Communists, and Fascists were religiously efficient in satisfying the orders of their masters.

 

[kallipolis]

I don't know...I'm assuming that once neurobiologists and medical geneticists isolate the 'God gene' and the 'God part' of the brain, religion will falter.

Once people realize it's all in their heads a social stigma will grow and people won't bother with it anymore.

I'm assuming that once neuro biologists and medical geneticists isolate the "Gay"gene and the "Queer part" of the brain, homosexuality will falter.

Once people realise it's all in their heads a social stigma will grow and people won't bother with it any more.