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Republicans Losing Grassroots Support

I provided the links. It's your responsibilty to understand them (or not as the case may be) and not my responsibility to teach you economics.

No, you DIDN'T provide links, remember? You provided "raw numbers" which to the average person on the street means jack, because a whole bunch of numbers becomes a blur. It overwhelms people. Not me, thankfully, otherwise your "statistical" lies would go unchecked.

And if you don't understand the numbers, can't interpret them, then what's the use of posting them? Is it to be a pompous ass? It works. Do you think spewing numbers and blustering with an "authoritative sound" makes you believable? It doesn't work for Rush Limbaugh (except with his "dittohead" sycophants) and it sure as hell doesn't work for Limbaugh wannabe's on forums like this one.

As if YOU could teach ME anything about economics!!! Grow a clue.
 
centexfarmer said:
Now you're just being hateful. :cool:

offtopic:

No, I'm not.

To know that someone with Chance's intellect supports those who would harm us engenders disappointment...not hatred.
 
No, I'm not.

To know that someone with Chance's intellect supports those who would harm us engenders disappointment...not hatred.

Now I'm confused. :confused:

Chance was referring to a comment that you made regarding one of GA's posts.

He was trying to play nice. :cool:

offtopic:
 
First, do you mind providing your sources? Or are you just pulling the numbers out of your ass? And, in the instance that you actually can back up the numbers, how do you justify that 3 million jobs have been lost during this administration while the unemployment rate has dropped. Sorry, lan, but your load of crap doesn't even pass the smell test. In other words, like what's his name so eloquently put it: bullcrap!

Sorry, I would have responded sooner but this is my first time I've had a chance to post.

From the BLS:

ESTABLISHMENT DATA
HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT

B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by major industry sector (in thousands)

1990...... 109,487
1991...... 108,374
1992...... 108,726
1993...... 110,844
1994...... 114,291
1995...... 117,298
1996...... 119,708
1997...... 122,776
1998...... 125,930
1999...... 128,993
2000...... 131,785
2001...... 131,826
2002...... 130,341
2003...... 129,999
2004...... 131,435
2005...... 133,703
2006...... 136,174

The number that I gave you was a based on service-sector jobs (see below) and included other factors. But using the raw data, you can see how 23 million jobs were created during the Clinton administration.

The 3 million jobs lost refers to the jobs lost in the production sector of the economy (manufacturing) mainly due to "outsourcing" and these data come from the BLS as well:

Total Private Production Workers (in thousands)
2001 90768
2002 88872
2003 88016
2004 87953

While the numbers improved sightly in later years, the point I was making was that 3 million jobs were lost in the first portion of the Bush Administration while Clinton gained jobs throughout his entire administration.

I admit that the figure used in my claim that family debt is 132% of disposable income is an old statistics. After looking up the statistic (known as the Debt Service Ratio, or DSR), it has acutally risen and is now 145.3%.

Data from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (remember, since these are ratios you have to multiple by 10 to get a percentage):

Household debt service payments and financial obligations as a percentage of disposable personal income; seasonally adjusted

01q1 13
01q2 13.19
01q3 12.99
01q4 13.38
02q1 13.22
02q2 13.3
02q3 13.46
02q4 13.56
03q1 13.57
03q2 13.54
03q3 13.43
03q4 13.5
04q1 13.44
04q2 13.46
04q3 13.64
04q4 13.56
05q1 13.89
05q2 14.08
05q3 14.26
05q4 14.29
06q1 14.3
06q2 14.52
06q3 14.53
06q4 14.53
 
<<<<Bump>>>>​

Want to make sure Mow doesn't miss anything.
 
Mow? Who's Mow...?


I'd like to point out something here; Presidents do NOT have end all controle over the economy (surpluses/deficits, jobs/job growth, unemployment, ect.) That is actually the realm of the Congressional House and Senate.

A President does have an impact, to that I agree. Bush pressed his tax cuts, as did Reagan in his time, and the Bush tax cuts paid for my college books (my part) and part of my tuition (what my parents didn't have to pay in taxes) and helped me keep from going into debt so badly during my college career...for what that's worth (so the tax cuts helped me and my family, and we are FAR from being in the "wealthiest 1%", just so ya know. ^_^)

...however, it was the Congress that actually hammered out the bills and passed them into law. Likewise, initiatives during the Clinton administration were pressed through the Republican Congress of the 90s (sorry for my youth, but at the time, politics was not an interst of mine, though more because I didn't understand much of it, my parents were hard line Republicans [they've mellowed some in recient years...], and because I was idealistic then [which I still am now] and so didn't take noteson what the actual initiatives were or their effects. ^_^)


The point? Bush and Clinton's presidencies can't be compared so easily by how the economy is doing.

As Lance (right?) said, the manufacturing jobs have decreased (due to outsourcing to other countries.) But stop and think, how was this Bush's fault? Is it his fault becaue he told corporations to oursource so they could make more profits, or is it his fault because he didn't provide incentives and tax breaks for them to keep the jobs here? OR, perhaps, it is the fault of the corporations themselves and has nothing to do with Bush? Or maybe, just maybe, it is a combination of the above and perhaps has even more elements that affected it...you know, things like 9-11 (which jumpstarts the LARGEST decreases in jobs during Bush's entire stint in office.)


...oh, and for the record, the ecconomy was slowing down toward the end of the Clinton administration. Had Gore been elected (or Clinton been allowed a third term for some reason), and even had 9-11 not occured, the ecconomy would still likely have followed the same trend that it did in 2000 and into 2001. The ecconomy WAS slowing at the end of Clinton's last term, and that wasn't Bush's fault.


...but don't get me wrong, that doesn't mean it was Clinton's fault either.




As for the topic at hand; yeah, Reps are loosing support by the grassroots and middle-class "common citizen". It is largely due to Immigration in the sense that that's what they see other Republicans jumping ship over. Likely it is a combination of quite a number of things, though.

...not that this should make Democrats too happy, people are becoming even more distrustful and dissatisfied with politicians in general (as I said in another thread, the one about the election starting too early, I think it was), it's just right now, it's hurting Republicans a lot more than it's hurting Democrats. I think in the long run it's probably hurting both, just Democrats not as much (this can be a combination of liberal media, of the war, of immigration, of the conservative media being pissed about immigration, and of the Republicans being "the Man", the dominant party in Washington [since they have the office of President and HAD the Congress until just reciently], which means that common people are going to blame them for all of our current woes anyway.)

Of course, this does mean the Dems have a chance to make some gains. So far, they've been fracking it up, but who knows, maybe they can get over their pissy fit over the military budget and work for a real immegration reform (doubtful) and other things that would make the American people happy. I don't see it happening, but that doesn't mean it can't...just probably won't, sadly...
 
I'd like to point out something here; Presidents do NOT have end all controle over the economy (surpluses/deficits, jobs/job growth, unemployment, ect.) That is actually the realm of the Congressional House and Senate.

I didn't bother to read your post any further. Have you been following any of this thread? Do statistics mean anything to you? Are you so interested in posting another one of your arrogant-bag-of-wind diatribes that you don't feel a need to read what anybody else has posted?

It's been proven, time and again, that Presidents do, indeed, have direct impact upon the economy. Check Mow(rest)'s own statistics earlier in this thread. Check the national surplus/deficit chart post many times in this forum.

Take a little time to [STRIKE]listen[/STRIKE] read, and try to spend less time [STRIKE]talking[/STRIKE] typing.
 
I'd like to point out something here; Presidents do NOT have end all controle over the economy (surpluses/deficits, jobs/job growth, unemployment, ect.) That is actually the realm of the Congressional House and Senate.

America's economic situation changed drastically between 2000 and 2001 and the only thing that changed within that time was our president...Congress remained in control by Republicans.

A President does have an impact, to that I agree. Bush pressed his tax cuts, as did Reagan in his time, and the Bush tax cuts paid for my college books (my part) and part of my tuition (what my parents didn't have to pay in taxes) and helped me keep from going into debt so badly during my college career...for what that's worth (so the tax cuts helped me and my family, and we are FAR from being in the "wealthiest 1%", just so ya know. ^_^)

While I don't deny that you received a tax cut, I think if you put it in perspective--when you look at the rising energy prices and tuition costs, you will see a net loss like so many other families. And, to tell you the truth, my family's economic situation is excellent but that doesn't mean that I support the policies that help our family. We don't need anymore help--I'd rather see our tax cut go toward healthcare for the uninsured, education, national security, or research for alternative energy. And it is important to mention that people like Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry, Jay Rockefeller, and Herb Kohl--all of whom fall into that "top 2%"--voted against giving themselves a tax cut. That says a lot about their character.

...however, it was the Congress that actually hammered out the bills and passed them into law. Likewise, initiatives during the Clinton administration were pressed through the Republican Congress of the 90s (sorry for my youth, but at the time, politics was not an interst of mine, though more because I didn't understand much of it, my parents were hard line Republicans [they've mellowed some in recient years...], and because I was idealistic then [which I still am now] and so didn't take noteson what the actual initiatives were or their effects. ^_^)

Let me remind you that the Clinton Economic Relief Act of 1993--which instituted the changes that led to the longest economic expansion in our nation's history--passed in Congress without a single Republican vote in both Houses of Congress. It took Vice President Gore's tie-breaking vote to get it past the Senate. And the Republican controlled Congress passed several budgets that President Clinton vetoed because of tax cuts for the wealthy and cuts to Medicare, among other things. Remember the government shutdown? And the Congress never changed hands between 2000 and 2001 and yet the economic conditions changed.

...oh, and for the record, the ecconomy was slowing down toward the end of the Clinton administration. Had Gore been elected (or Clinton been allowed a third term for some reason), and even had 9-11 not occured, the ecconomy would still likely have followed the same trend that it did in 2000 and into 2001. The ecconomy WAS slowing at the end of Clinton's last term, and that wasn't Bush's fault.

This claim--which people on the other side repeat about as often as the claim that Iraq had WMD--is false, like the WMD claim. The recession began in the spring of 2001--shortly after the passage of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.
 
I didn't bother to read your post any further. Have you been following any of this thread? Do statistics mean anything to you? Are you so interested in posting another one of your arrogant-bag-of-wind diatribes that you don't feel a need to read what anybody else has posted?

It's been proven, time and again, that Presidents do, indeed, have direct impact upon the economy. Check Mow(rest)'s own statistics earlier in this thread. Check the national surplus/deficit chart post many times in this forum.

Take a little time to [STRIKE]listen[/STRIKE] read, and try to spend less time [STRIKE]talking[/STRIKE] typing.

Are you really so ignorent? Since YOU ignored the rest of my post (I actually read all the posts in this thread, including the statistical ones), let me point out to you what you seem ignorent of.


Ecconomics is a VERY complex "thing", having MANY variables that affect it. These includ, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO, world events (wars, natural disasters, events such as 9-11), taxes, government programs, general trust/distrust in nation leaders (including and chiefly the President), public confidence in the economy and industry, what industry considers will be best for its profits, the job market (which, as odd as it seems, is one of the variables that controls itself at the same time), technological advancements, technology, media, advertising, class/wealth distribution of the populice, and more.

The President is one of the factors involved, but only one, and NOT the chief one at that.



So, you ask, what about those statistics? Well, in all honesty, they're pretty misleading (didn't you say so yourself?) Bush's presidency has seen oursourcing, the "technology stock" growing, deflating, and growing again, 9-11, war, and the creation of an underground low cost working class (illegal immigrants) which likely have come over in higher numbers than did during Clinton's administration, and as such, took jobs from Americans (thus leading to a higher unemployment and longer term unemployment to the unemployed, two things that you, yourself, pointed out earlier, right?)

...in fact, given all of those things, it's fairly remarkable that the ecconomy is doing as well as it is right now (the DOW at an all time high and unemployment relatively low [though how the Federal government defines unemployment is a little buggy to me, did you know you're only considered unemployed if you've been out of a job for something like 3 months, are over 18, are a primary income source for your family, and have been actively looking for a job (filling out applications and such) within the past three weeks?]) So if you want to say the president is totally responsible, we should be praising Bush for how good things are in the midst of these troubled times.


...I'm not so generous. The ecconomy is doing as well as it is more by luck than by design at the moment, and the only thing Bush has done that's really created jobs is the war (wars naturally create jobs as soldiers leave their positions for others to fill, the wartime industry builds stuff to supply the troops, and wars speed up the economy as the military is a strong consumer) and the tax cuts (which have made it easier for familes to have ends meet, and thus given them more money to put into the ecconomy itself to increase job growth.)

...but WAIT, Bush declared war, but the Congress is who decided to allow it. And Bush was for the tax cuts, but again, it was Congress that did the deed (and as it turns out, we were on the let side downsloap of the parabla, so Keysian ecconomics favored cutting taxes to increase productivity and revenues.) And even so, these are only two situations. Much of the ecconomic ebb and flow is outside of the control of politicians in general anyway, and it's, once again, the Congress that has the power to affect the ecconomy. The only thing the President can do is help with consumer confidence by being a stout leader...and for what it's worth, if you look at the statistics and say that the President is the major cause of the ecconomy, than you should be praising Bush.



Summary - - Please Read:

A) The Presidency is only one of the causes affecting the ecconomy, and not the most major one by any stretch. There are MANY variables affecting the ecconomy, don't be so (at the risk of being insulting) simple minded to think that there is a single, simple cause in the person of the President.

B) And IF you submit that the President is the sole or major cause of the ecconomy's wellbeing (or weakening), than under that assumption you should be praising Bush for how our ecconomy is doing. You can praise Clinton more, saying it was better under his administration, but it is ALSO doing pretty well during Bush's, so you have to give him his dues on it if you're insistent on giving Clinton his.


(Note: I disagree with B and believe that neither Clinton nor Bush are actually that deserving of praise regarding the ecconomies under their respective administrations. But if you insist to be ignorent to praise Clinton, than I request you at least have the gonads and character to be consistent and praise Bush as well.)


Now then, read all that? ^_^
 
America's economic situation changed drastically between 2000 and 2001 and the only thing that changed within that time was our president...Congress remained in control by Republicans.

Yeah, but (as you say you disagree with below) some people believe that the nation was already starting into a downward trend (namely, the stock market, an early indicator of the ecconomy's future trends, was slowing down during the 2000 election campaign...oddly enough, each time Gore went up in the polls, the market dropped several points, and when Bush went up in the polls, the market went up slightly.)



While I don't deny that you received a tax cut, I think if you put it in perspective--when you look at the rising energy prices and tuition costs, you will see a net loss like so many other families. And, to tell you the truth, my family's economic situation is excellent but that doesn't mean that I support the policies that help our family. We don't need anymore help--I'd rather see our tax cut go toward healthcare for the uninsured, education, national security, or research for alternative energy. And it is important to mention that people like Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry, Jay Rockefeller, and Herb Kohl--all of whom fall into that "top 2%"--voted against giving themselves a tax cut. That says a lot about their character.

My family's mid-middle-class (I think), and I myself (if you consider me as being over 22 and a college student, but qualifying as being named my own familial "unit") am probably lower middle-class (due to my degree/education bring me up by my lack of funds being a point lowering me down. ^_^) Despite what a lot of people said, middle-class famlies were helped greatly by the tax cuts, which for my part helped fund my education.

You may be right about the net loss, but had the tax cuts not passed, do you really think that money would instead have gone to making college more affordable and keeping gas prices down? It probably would have gone to pork spending instead. You bring up healthcare, education, national security, and research for alternative energy, but forgive my lack of faith in our politicians, but I just don't see them actually puting the money into those things had the tax cuts not passed. MAYBE the healthcare (though that would likely not have passed), and they might have put a little in education ([voice=sarcasm]because as much money as they're already pouring into education is REALLY helping[/voice]), so forgive me if I think them pouring yet more money into education would not be all that beneficial...besides which, had the tax cuts not passed, probably only around 5% of that money would have gone to education and maybe all of 1% would have been split between healthcare and alternative energy research. The other 94% would have just gone to pork spending and $1,000 toilet seats...



Let me remind you that the Clinton Economic Relief Act of 1993--which instituted the changes that led to the longest economic expansion in our nation's history--passed in Congress without a single Republican vote in both Houses of Congress. It took Vice President Gore's tie-breaking vote to get it past the Senate. And the Republican controlled Congress passed several budgets that President Clinton vetoed because of tax cuts for the wealthy and cuts to Medicare, among other things. Remember the government shutdown? And the Congress never changed hands between 2000 and 2001 and yet the economic conditions changed.

As I said, the 90s aren't really within the basis of my knowledge (I was...10 years old in 93, hadn't even discovered jackin' off for goodness sake. ^_^), though I don't doubt that the Democratic Congress passed something before the Reps took over. But see, AGAIN, that's saying that it was the Congress, not the President, that had the major impact. Don't get me wrong, Clinton had a hand in the drafting and pushing for the bill, and since I believe your account is accurate, Gore cast the tie-breaking vote. But I doubt that the ecconomic upturn was entirely the work of Clinton, nor does he deserve full credit for it (as I said in the post above this, the ecconomy is multifacited with many controling variables, the President being only one of those.)

I actually vaguely remember a government shutdown, but as a preteen at the time, no one would explain to me what it was about.

Now then, as for the 2000/2001 situation, Congress didn't change hands, but the people in Congress changed, no (the some seats did change hands.) The Bush tax cuts also hadn't really gone into major effect (people hadn't gotten their refund checks yet, I don't think), so that wasn't a key cause either. In all honesty, I imagine it was a part of the natural ebb and flow of things. Ecconomies only tend to do well for so long before there's a hickup (if not an outright downturn.) I'm not really sure why, maybe it's that consumer confidence begins to wane as people start worrying about an ecconomic downturn, which turns out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy (I mean, every time we hear the market doing really well, the first thing people seem to start saying is how they're worried that the market is doing "too well" and that there's going to be a recession (and things like that do tend to happen when enough people say they're going to. One must ask if it's because they see something, or if it's simply the unrest such words engender.)



This claim--which people on the other side repeat about as often as the claim that Iraq had WMD--is false, like the WMD claim. The recession began in the spring of 2001--shortly after the passage of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.

I'd actually like to find some real numbers for this. I remember from the 2000 election that the market was down quite a lot during the election season, so there was clearly a lot of ecconomic unrest about who would be the next President. While the market seemed to like Bush better, clearly he was a "newcomer", so the market still went down some, and this naturally affected the ecconomy and job market. Now, the question is was this a trend that started off of the Clinton years (as some suggest, a result of the ecconomic policy of the Congress of that Administration), or was it something else. After all, you have to realize that most things that help aren't long term. It's kinda like shooting a cannon, what goes up will inevitably come down unless you do something to keep it up.

I guess to say it more clearly, the question is, which of these was it:

A) The ecconomy was doing badly and getting worse (this one I believe is simply wrong)

B) The ecconomy was doing great, but something (pre-9-11) caused it to begin to slow AFTER Bush took office (now, whether this was related to Bush being in office or was some outside thing...)

C) The ecconomy was already slowing down and simply continued this trend into the Bush administration



Note that B does not require it being Bush's fault (though it could be.) To determine whether it was B or C I'd need to have some actual data to look at though, and something more significant than the unemployment numbers that have been given; the stock market, GDP, and so on are also important factors to consider. There are cases where the GDP and market can be up and unemployment can be up also, but such a case is indicative of a healthier ecconomy (as if the market and GDP keep going up, more jobs will be created), and periods of low unemployment may seem good, but if the GDP and/or market are down, that's actually a sign of an ecconomy that's about to go into a recession and experience increased unemployment as a result.



So yeah, only looking at one thing is about as ignorent as saying that there's only one cause (the Presidency) affecting the ecconomy. PLEASE tell me that even if you disagree with my conclusions you can agree with that.
 
Will repost later, whe I have time to tear-apart the above "reasoning."
 
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