Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[rareboy]

Maybe if the west hadn't stripped them of Nukes and basically demilitarized them after they declared independence we'd be having a different conversation.

 

[opinterph]

relying on the kindness of strangers is a poor military strategy.

No nuclear-armed state has ever faced a full-scale invasion by a foreign power.

 

[rareboy]

UA was not really allowed to arm and they were sold out after Crimea by the Minsk Accords that were to be guaranteed by the west.

The US and Europe all worked out an appeasement strategy to 'contain' Putin.

Partly beacuse all their governments had been infiltrated and suborned by the Kremlin.

 

[rareboy]

Interesting satellite pics show many T-72 tanks in reserve in rrrZZia stripped for parts and rusting...unlikely to be able to be restored.

Somehow though, rrrZZia is still able to keep tanks coming. My suspicion is that knowing that no one would dare invade them from the south, they are likely shipping all their equipment to the front now.

Today, UA took out a base for military equipment in Luhansk, occupied Ukraine that was about to come into operation.

 

[NotHardUp1]

I don’t know why you feel the need to exaggerate my position I never said they should draft everyone over the age of 18, I have only indicated that I believe everyone over the age of 18 should be available to be drafted since their country is at war. And I never said the infantry was fighting with hand weapons I mentioned the importance of shells which are not hand weapons. Try and respond to what I have said as that should be the reason you are responding.

Yes they were sold out by the west (particularly the U.S. and GB) and in 2014 they lost the Crimea with barely a fight perhaps that would have been a good time to start military planning for the future and beef up your forces instead of relying on those very countries that failed you in the past.

I support the Ukraine and want them to win but relying on the kindness of strangers is a poor military strategy.

In fairness. GB and the USA wanted the smaller Soviet heirs to shed their nukes, lest lesser controls and rampant corruption in a place like Ukraine lead to nukes getting into the hands of the black market.

And Ukraine is a poor country with zero chance of resisting Russia on her own. If the West had not rallied this time, she would have folded. God forbid it.

There are no perfect solutions.

But, we erred by not getting stronger responses to the taking of the Crimea. But, like the US after WWI, we were loath to enter into a new conflict in and old war zone. Weve got Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, and other defeats on our hands. We don't need a Crimea.

Butt, now we're paying for not valuing our own principles.

 

[rareboy]

The west could have called Putin's bluff years ago after Crimea by intiating a process for Ukraine to enter NATO.

Instead, largely thanks to Germany and other European countries thirsting for cheap rrrZZian oil and gas, they decided on a policy of Using Ukraine as a 'buffer' state like Belarus.

rrrZZia almost immediately took over Belarus in a soft coup, they tried their damndest with Hungary and Slovakia, Poland and the Baltic states...almost also pulling it off in Latvia and Lithuania in1991.

The US and Europe pursued the false logic that as long as Ukraine posed no military threat to Rzzxha, the Kremlin would leave it alone. Before the 2016 election, Crimean occupation and rrrZZia's takeover og Luhansk was gutted by the Kremlin operatives when the party platform was being constructed.

And then, as we saw, Trump was more than willing to withhold military aid to Ukraine unless Zelensky gave him dirt that didn't exist on Hunter Biden

Just a reminder on the Minsk Accords brokered by the west.

Minsk agreements - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Norri]

And Ukraine is a poor country with zero chance of resisting Russia on her own.

This is the reason they were never invited to join NATO. Also in governing philosophy they are more like Russia than Germany…..more orient than occident. The further east you go the more corrupt the governments become.

 

[NotHardUp1]

This is the reason they were never invited to join NATO. Also in governing philosophy they are more like Russia than Germany…..more orient than occident. The further east you go the more corrupt the governments become.

I'm not sure NATO is actually an invitation party.

Countries pursued the alliance out of self-preservation. Ukraine is not only very, VERY Russian, they are the first true Russia, so not apt to identifying themselves as anti-Russian.

However, the region has been a hotspot. Stalin starved the Crimea and Ukraine so severely during his 5-year-plans that they welcomed the invading Nazis.

As for corruption, I'd rather call it brutality. There is plenty of corruption in Western Europe, but it is less overt. Life had been so hardbitten in the East, there is less pretense to cover it up. It's more like the Mafioso in Italy and Sicily.

 

[rareboy]

meanwhile....

 

[rareboy]

China seems to have clearly chosen their side. Unsurprising at the end of the day, I suppose. rrrZZZia's seizure of another country's land will be pretext and modern precedent for China to seize more land. China tells Scholz that they are not a party to the war...but ...

China has surged sales to Russia of machine tools, microelectronics and other technology that Moscow in turn is using to produce missiles, tanks, aircraft and other weaponry for use in its war against Ukraine, according to a U.S. assessment.

US intelligence finding shows China surging equipment sales to Russia to help war effort in Ukraine

China has surged sales to Russia of machine tools, microelectronics and other technology Moscow uses to produce missiles, tanks, aircraft and other weaponry.

apnews.com

 

[rareboy]

Shot down:
1 Tu-22M3 bomber
14/14 Shahed drones
2/2 Kh-101/555
11/12 Kh-59/69
0/2 Iskander

 

[NotHardUp1]

The Saturday vote on the Ukraine aid bill seems less like an expedite than a delay to put it on a weekend when news is slow or nonexistent and Trump is out of court so can pounce on it real time.

On a related note, I hope Marjorie Taylor Greene actually pushes her motiton to vacate so she can taste the bitterness of defeat when her marginal poltical faction sees it cannot drive the elephant if it turns on her.

She can roll off into the same ditch that they dumped Jeff Sessions' body after he was no longer a useful minion.

 

[rareboy]

The GQP is definitely at a turning point this week.

When Johnston is saying this has to be done now or else Putin will walk right through Europe...this must reflect the overwhelming will of his caucus at large.

The Kremlin Kaucus will definitely try their best to cozy up to the $$$$ Putin Co. is almost still certainly funnelling their way.

But yeah...I am intrigued to see if MTG loses some of her power this week.

 

[TX-Beau]

The GQP is definitely at a turning point this week.

When Johnston is saying this has to be done now or else Putin will walk right through Europe...this must reflect the overwhelming will of his caucus at large.

The Kremlin Kaucus will definitely try their best to cozy up to the $$$$ Putin Co. is almost still certainly funnelling their way.

But yeah...I am intrigued to see if MTG loses some of her power this week.

...Greene filed more than 20 amendments to the bill and most of them sound as though they have been handcrafted by Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry. Some of them demand Ukraine to close all its bio-laboratories, to prove that “Christian churches in Ukraine are able to operate free from government interference” and bar funding until “restrictions on Hungarians in Transcarpathia” and other minorities are lifted...

MSN

Portrait of a traitor.

 

[rareboy]

She is totally a creature of the Kremlin and I am 100% sure she has been promised a big pay day for helping to wreck the federal government.

Tucker is probably the intermediary.

 

[NotHardUp1]

But yeah...I am intrigued to see if MTG loses some of her power this week.

Her weak retort to the announcement of the vote, a certainty to pass, is that Congress should have to go to front to fight if they vote to support:

Marjorie Taylor Greene: Members who vote for Ukraine aid have to join army

Greene has proposed an amendment to the Ukraine aid bill seeking to require anyone who votes in favor to be required to "conscript in the Ukrainian military."

www.newsweek.com

Greene, who has long argued against providing any further funding to Ukraine, introduced three amendments to the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act. One of her amendments states that "any member of Congress who votes in favor of this Act shall be required to conscript in the Ukrainian military."

Honestly, if Congress were to start by just sending Greene, I'm sure the withering fire of her shooting off her mouth would be enough to stop the advance.

 

[NotHardUp1]

The House has passed all four bills for foreign aid, with $61B designated for Ukraine.

All four are sent on to the Senate as one bill, forcing it to be passed as one or delayed if not, as it would send it back for reconciliation, very unlikely considering the difficulty in getting it through on the first vote.

The other three bills are aid to Israel and miltiary spending in Taiwan area, and the resolution on banning Tik Tok if not divested from Chinese control.

Sale of Russian seized assets was included, as well as a direction for the president to seek repayment of $10B from Ukraine as loaned aid, but with the proviso the president can begin forgiving that debt as early as 2026.

Like everything from Congress, a mixed bag.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-vote-long-awaited-95-billion-ukraine-israel-aid-package-2024-04-20/

 

[rareboy]

I actually see the sale of seized assets as a step forward. As well as debt forgiveness to blunt the purposeful meanness of the aid as a loan.

I never quite see the hesitancy of Congress to provide aid, particuarly those from districts relying on the military industrial complex since all the dollars are directed at re-supplying with US made weapons and ammunition.

 

[NotHardUp1]

I actually see the sale of seized assets as a step forward. As well as debt forgiveness to blunt the purposeful meanness of the aid as a loan.

I never quite see the hesitancy of Congress to provide aid, particuarly those from districts relying on the military industrial complex since all the dollars are directed at re-supplying with US made weapons and ammunition.

The 2026 clause is almost meaningless. The pursuit of repayment can be swept aside with the stroke of a pen when and if Congress passes a bill to do so, a certainty if the Congress flips this year, which it might when the abortion bans bring the left to the polls.

As for the opposition to aid, it's naked obstructionism. Keep anything good from happenning in your opponent's term in office. I first saw it prominent when Clinton was in office. It had been used before, but never quite so openly and consistently. Congress, during Clinton's terms, did little other than natter about their "Contract With America" and hammer Whitewater. No legislation of merit got through.

 

[rareboy]

Meanwhile, UA took out a major battery of S-300 and S-400 missile launchers and ammuntion depots at Dzankoy airport in Occupied Crimea yesterday and it has quieted the assaults on Kherson for at least a few days.

Too bad that the Kerch Bridge also couldn't be taken out to prevent new launchers from being moved into place quickly.