Six in One Week....GOP reps bailing

[rareboy]

Hurd is the sixth Republican member of Congress to announce their exit in little over a week. Michigan Rep. Paul Mitchell said he would not be seeking re-election last Wednesday, and was followed in quick succession by Texas Rep. Pete Olson, Alabama Rep. Martha Roby, Utah Rep. Rob Bishop and Texas Rep. K. Michael Conaway.

Will Hurd probably knows that after crossing Trump by voting for censure...he would be primaried into oblivion....but six dropping out in one week is actually a little scary. While Hurd's seat should be able to be picked up by the Democrats again.....some of these seats could now be filled by Trumpist candidates.

Overall though, I am getting the sense that the Republicans are coming to terms with the idea that the slaughter that began in 2018 is going to continue in 2020 and that many of them are either going to be voted out or stuck in the minority without the percs that they enjoyed while they held the House.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/po...1Yn9GpDgdoxCWyyU9WVmF9i1ViYu3R1rKf-9S-zoDjy_0

 

[Sausy]

Unfortunately though, so long as we have a Republican Senate majority with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.. even should the Democrats expand a bit the majority in the House and win back the Presidency... we are going to get no forward motion, no progressive reform. Though better a stalemate than a further slide to a Republican shithouse of corporatism. The party of Lincoln is as dead as he is.

 

[KaraBulut]

Will Hurd probably knows that after crossing Trump by voting for censure...he would be primaried into oblivion....but six dropping out in one week is actually a little scary. While Hurd's seat should be able to be picked up by the Democrats again.....some of these seats could now be filled by Trumpist candidates.

Hurd's seat will likely flip (the other R's who are retiring are in solid red districts). Hurd won by something like 0.5% against his Latina Democratic competitor in a district that has the largest section of the Texas-Mexico border.

Shame, though. Hurd's is bright and he's a good politician and a serious guy... traits that don't go far in the Texas Republican party (or the Texas Republican electorate).

 

[rareboy]

^ Owens' seat is considered to be in play as well, I believe.

As for the others, look for TrumpCo. to try to get staunch Trumpists (racist nutjobs from the swamp) to run to solidify his position.

 

[frankfrank]

The party of Lincoln is as dead as he is.

The Party of Lincoln, a/k/a GOP (Government of Putin), certainly has a dead soul.

traits that don't go far in the Texas Republican party (or the Texas Republican electorate).

...with very rare exceptions. The Republican mayor of Georgetown, Texas (a large commuter suburb of Austin, about 30 miles south) is actually EMBRACING renewable energy. That's rare, in an oil state no less, though I guess a lot of the oil fields are being depleted, right?

 

[TX-Beau]

The Party of Lincoln, a/k/a GOP (Government of Putin), certainly has a dead soul.


...with very rare exceptions. The Republican mayor of Georgetown, Texas (a large commuter suburb of Austin, about 30 miles south) is actually EMBRACING renewable energy. That's rare, in an oil state no less, though I guess a lot of the oil fields are being depleted, right?

Georgetown is north of Austin, even though it's Williamson County, it might as well be Travis - the bluest county in all of Texas. Exxon is not run by fools, they are diversifying into renewable energy AND they are fracking. The easy oil in Texas is depleted, but Texas is sitting on a vast ocean of shale oil.

Hurd got elected because that district wasn't going to elect a Pub at all, so the Pubs massively pushed the black guy who just happened to be competent rather than lose to a Latino Dem, who lost by less than a percentage point IIRC.

Because of the racist Orang' in the White House, that district is lost, and they all damn well know it.

None of which means that the Pubs in Texas aren't populated with whirling wingnuts and cray cray.

 

[frankfrank]

Georgetown is north of Austin, even though it's Williamson County, it might as well be Travis . Exxon is not run by fools, they are diversifying into renewable energy AND they are fracking.

Thank you for correcting my geography faux-pas, and furthermore mentioning that Exxon ACTUALLY is getting into other pursuits. Renewable energy is a noble pursuit, though I don't think of fracking as all that much better than burning oil as the production is certainly rather dirty with strange side effects (such as earthquakes).

Are any tobacco companies getting into marijuana yet? That would seem like another profitable effort for them.

 

[KaraBulut]

...Are any tobacco companies getting into marijuana yet? That would seem like another profitable effort for them.

Big Pharma and Big Ag are.

...with very rare exceptions. The Republican mayor of Georgetown, Texas (a large commuter suburb of Austin, about 30 miles south) is actually EMBRACING renewable energy. That's rare, in an oil state no less, though I guess a lot of the oil fields are being depleted, right?

Hurd is a bit wonky but he has a good personality. He spent a lot of time in his district where I suspect many of them thought he was Latino. His district is huge, so a politician who goes to events in the district is going to be doing a lot of driving around. Hurd's mentor was Robert Gates, who spotted Hurd when Hurd was in student government at Texas A&M and Gates was the President of Texas A&M. If you watch House hearings, there's a lot of grand-standing and bloviating for the cameras but Hurd was one of those Congressmen who came prepared and used his time to ask questions.

Texas, in spite of its history as a oil and refining economy, has a pretty green electrical grid. Thanks to 1930s public works projects, the state produces a lot of hydroelectric power and the entire western side of the state is all sun and wind, so they've invested heavily in solar and wind turbines. Since they also produce natural gas, there's also a preference to replacing older coal plants with natural gas.

Texas has a lot of contradictions. It has some of the worlds largest oil refineries and it produces more wind energy than any other state. T Boone Pickens is a Texas oilman but he has invested millions in wind energy. The state produces guys like John Ratcliffe and Louie Gohmert but it also produces guys like Will Hurd and Lyndon Johnson. Sadly, these days it seems to produce more Gohmerts than Johnsons.

 

[Sausy]

Hurd is still pretty conservative, he's no true moderate overall... he just doesn't go into nativism, bigotry.. but he's not really that different from what would be thought about as a Bob Dole type of conservative. But that he is like the old moderate conservative(rather than moderate in the old Rockefeller Republican type manner) shows just how far right the GOP has evolved... moderate conservatism is their left wing.

 

[frankfrank]

^ I did vote for Clinton in '96 but I was very close to voting for Dole; I didn't find him toxic and certainly nowhere near the level of today's typical Republican-in-office.

 

[rareboy]

There we go.

Another long serving GOP congresscreature heading for the exits.

Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wis.) announced on Monday he was resigning from Congress after being elected to his fifth term in 2018.

"After eight and a half years, the time has come for me to focus more on the reason we fight these battles – family," Duffy said in a Facebook post.

Of course, given that he's from Wisconsin...he likely will be leaving a safe seat as long as the GOP can find a right winger who can appeal to their feeling of being hard done by.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/...kBMQXMEHsJiC3uU9XZ73CfhbMrSDWlUGRDV7LqnfJ1fKY

 

[KaraBulut]

There we go.

Another long serving GOP congresscreature heading for the exits.

Of course, given that he's from Wisconsin...he likely will be leaving a safe seat as long as the GOP can find a right winger who can appeal to their feeling of being hard done by.

It's their 9th child, by the way.

Duffy introduced a bill earlier in the session to expand Presidential powers to impose tariffs.

He won't be missed but sadly, if he hangs on long enough to avoid a gubernatorial appointment to replace him, the seat will probably remain Republican.

 

[rareboy]

I believe it says he is resigning in September?

 

[KaraBulut]

I believe it says he is resigning in September?

Yeah, I just read another article on the local Wisconsin news that says the baby is due in October, so he's resigning at the end of September. The Governor (a Democrat who gave Scott Walker the boot) is calling a special election which means the seat is likely to remain Republican.

He apparently hasn't been away from Wisconsin that often if he's produced 9 children, at least half of whom were conceived while he was in office.

The Republican Senator from Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, has been rumored to be retiring in 2022, so- unfortunately- we might not have seen the last of Mr Duffy.

On a related note, Paul Ryan just relocated his brood from Wisconsin to DC.

 

[TX-Beau]

Meanwhile on the other side of the routunda:

"Georgia Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson will retire at the end of 2019 due to his declining health, he announced Wednesday..."

https://news.yahoo.com/sen-johnny-isakson-announces-retirement-162508969.html

Which means both Senate seats are open in Geargia.

 

[rareboy]

^ Any others looking a might frail?

 

[TX-Beau]

Cornyn (R-TX) is in danger. Trump has infuriated the Latinos in Texas, which has always been a nightmare scenario for the Texas 'Pubs, who know, just like the rest of us that they held on to Texas by getting just enough Latinos while discouraging the majority of them from the polls.

If Trump keeps pissing these people off, and keeps pissing women off, and keeps pissing suburban white people off, AND The fucking Dems actually push some cash and support into Texas, we could pick Cornyn off, plus a bunch of state offices and Judges - turn Texas Blue in the Presidential race, and the Midwest becomes far less relevant.

Possible, yes, but probable, no, If the Dems could pick off Florida (much more likely) that's 29 Electors, plus 84 (NY and CA) you're at 133 add TX (38) you're at 151. Half way there. Which matters because if you can motivate the people tp pull that off, you'll get your Senators as well.

What's-her-name in Maine needs to go, she's useless, and I bet she could be picked off. Some say Arizona, but that has a lot of the same issues as TX. I think Alabama is going back red - Unless the idiots over there actually re-nominate that child molester.

Of course, Trump isn't done yet, who knows how many more Senators he's going to imperil before all is said and done.

However, one should never underestimate the Dems genius for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

[jaysizzles]

What's-her-name in Maine needs to go, she's useless, and I bet she could be picked off.

Susan Collins overall approval has decreased in Maine, largely due to the fact that she's sided with Trump around 70% of the time and because of her approval of Kavanaugh's appointment to the SC. Depending on which article I read about her approval rating, it varied between 41% to 53% approval. She was previously at about 67% approval. In the 2016 presidential election, Maine went to Clinton with 48% of the vote, although only 3 of the 4 electoral votes went to Clinton, the other 1 to Trump.

According to Real Clear Politics polling, she still has a 14 point lead over Sara Gideon, her democratic opponent.

So...it may not be an easy pick off for the democrat, although I do hope it turns out to be.


edit to add: But Five Thirty Eight seems to think there is only 1 senator more unpopular than Collins, and that'd be McConnell. https://morningconsult.com/senator-rankings-q2-19-2/

 

[TX-Beau]

That's her. though I don't suppose it matters much what her national approval ratings are. It's the Kavanaugh vote that sunk her in my estimation.

 

[KaraBulut]

12 term Republican Congressman...

Illinois' John Shimkus won't seek reelection [Politico]

Illinois Republican John Shimkus announced Friday he won't seek reelection to the House next year.

The 12-term congressman, who is a senior member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, told KMOX-AM in St. Louis that he would retire at the end of his term.