No -- it's already well established that no one can refuse service based on the prospective customer's membership in any certain class. There has to be an actual activity which treads on the free exercise of an individual's religion.
If they're on the ball, they'll nail this one with the same provisions that protected conscientious objectors from the draft: you can't just say it's against your conscience, you have to show membership in a religious or similar group which has an objection to the specific activity. So if this baker belongs to a church which specifically states that participation in or support of anything on the "homosexual agenda" is forbidden, he's golden; if he doesn't, he's probably screwed.
Yes, they'd love to be able to not even allow gays into their shops, but that isn't something any federal court is going to hand them. The decision is going to be narrowly tailored, and if they follow precedent in dealing with objections of conscience it will be very narrow indeed (and I expect all sorts of "evangelical" churches will be adding items opposing supporting gay rights to their statements of belief).
Kennedy seems to be focused on the freedom of speech argument—he is in favor of freedom of speech. So focused, it could be a 9-0 decision.


