All these stupid polls are based on "likely voters" totaling a little more than 25%. The "common wisdom" is that these "likely voters" are going to skew to Republicans because of the "enthusiasm gap". Pollsters in midterms have to guess at who they think is going to turn out to weight the poll. Additionally, they don't take into consideration that they only poll using landlines, a dying way of contacting the average person aged under 40 years old, meaning their results are even more heavily skewed to old people (who generally vote more conservative).
The House and Senate are both going to probably lose a handful of seats. The average is 4 in the Senate and 28 in the House. I highly doubt it will be any more than this time either. The Republicans are not taking the Senate under any scenario, and I highly doubt the House as well.
