Survivor 32: Kaoh Rong (Brains/Beauty/Brawn 2)

[Silverfuck]

It's a interesting top 4 this season. I really think that for the first time in a long time, they all have a chance of winning. It's going to be a tight vote.

 

[RRUGER]

First it was Caleb, then Alicia, one was medevacced and the other eliminated BEFORE the merge, (AND IN THE SAME EPISODE HOW DARE THEY?!) and now it's Tai, but how it's going so far.

Bottom line #JanVanEssFavoritesNeverWinEver

HUH?,,,


what you never mind

 

[Spiff]

It's a interesting top 4 this season. I really think that for the first time in a long time, they all have a chance of winning. It's going to be a tight vote.

I don't think Tai has a chance. He has flip-flopped so many times I don't think that sits well with the jury. My vote would be for Cydney. She has also had multiple alliances, but unlike Tai she has maintained them better.

 

[slipintothefog]

Still fully expecting a Michele win but preferring that Cydney or Aubry win.

 

[BetinaNungging]

Aubry, Cydney, Michelle
but most likely I would prefer Michelle more

 

[CoolBlue71]

Still fully expecting a Michele win but preferring that Cydney or Aubry win.

I think Michelle is most capable of getting the jury votes against all of Aubry, Cydney, and Tai.

Aubry and Cydney are the finalists types who pissed off enough jurors to put their potential of winning in doubt. (If it is to be a Final Two, they need to be each other’s Final Two.)

Tai has been very needy in a way which, if he makes it to the end, could yield results like Lillian from Pearl Islands (2003).

Michelle’s path, being underestimated in her potential by the other three, may bode successfully well enough for her to win. And I’m thinking she will.

 

[slipintothefog]

I don't think Aubry is underestimating Michele, as her preferred final three was against Joe and Tai (and she likely could have won in that scenario), but Joe going out at the most inopportune time has put Aubry in a very bad position to get Michele out for the win. If it's a final three, it would only take one immunity win for Michele to get to the end.

Who has Aubry pissed off on the jury besides Debbie? Presumably she would have Neal and Joe, and could pick up votes from Jason/Scot if she were against Tai or Cydney. Cyd's win being in doubt I agree with. I've never been sold on her as a winner because in addition to the lapses in her edit's narrative, where are her votes actually coming from? The only people she's pissed off are Jason and Scot, but the only people the edit has showcased her bonding with are fellow end-gamers who she'd be sitting against in the end.

 

[crowboy]

I don't see Tai or Cydney winning. It's between Aubrey & Michelle I think. If I got to vote, I'd vote Aubrey. She's "played" the game more IMHO. Michelle didn't do anything for much of the series. Aubrey has played more for longer and I don't see Michelle having the numbers on the jury to win.
Still fascinating to watch it unfold.

 

[slipintothefog]

Michele can definitely get the votes to win. Julia is a locked vote for her no matter who Michele goes against, and Nick likely is too. She would get Jason/Scot if she's against Tai or Cydney. If she's not against Cydney, Cydney would likely vote for her over the other two. Five is enough to win whether it's a F3 or a F2.

The Brain votes are a little more up in the air, with Joe and Neal leaning toward Aubry and Debbie leaning against her based on her first Ponderosa video (she blames Aubry for her elimination which the main show also supported). Michele/Aubry would definitely be the closest combination of finalists in terms of how the votes would fall.

So that's why I feel like Michele and Aubry are each other's winning doubt. If it's a final three, I would expect one of them to go out fourth (Aubry most likely) and the other to win. If it's a final two, it's more muddy, and my gut feeling would be the winner is up against Tai, with Cydney out fourth and the other of Aubry/Michele (still probably Aubry) out third.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

#Aubrywasrobbed

 

[rysmiley88]

#Aubrywasrobbed

My thoughts exactly.

 

[joesman]

She was robbed because the two biggest assholes of the season proved they are still assholes. Scott tirade was just stupid and he looked stupid giving it. Jason just makes me look another way.

Good on Sia and Tai.

 

[RRUGER]

aubry ROBBED

BITTER JASON AND SCOT

KUDOS TO CYDNEY< AUBRY AND MICCHELLE though

 

[slipintothefog]

Aubry was robbed but I wanted it for Cydney even more, and I'm also not here for the social media fan outrage over Michele winning because "she didn't do anything" that seems to happen every time a woman wins Survivor/Big Brother.

 

[Redsox]

What a joke and mockery that is now Survivor.

That twist gave Michelle the win.

Apart from winning challenges at the right moments, what did she do for the whole series?

 

[slipintothefog]

Michele won 5-2, that utterly pointless juror twist had no freaking impact on the winner. Despite what the show was trying to spin last night, people giving their rehearsed jury speeches rarely influences the final vote. Most jurors have their mind made up in Ponderosa days before Final Tribal, and the streak of near blow-out wins in the last few years is indicative of that. Debbie said as soon as she was voted out that she wasn't voting for Aubry, and in the end she didn't (Aubry's second vote was Nick).

I would have preferred one of the other ladies to win myself, but Michele deserved her win. Julia and Cydney were always going to vote Michele because they were friends. That's the social game at work for Michele. Debbie was against Aubry because Aubry eliminated her without finesse. That's Aubry's lack of a social game at work. Jason and Scot suck but they never had any loyalties toward Aubry nor Michele, so their votes were not "bitter" against anyone but Tai. That's Michele's social game and Aubry (and Tai)'s lack of one again.

"Winning challenges" is important too. I knew as soon as she won the F4 IC that Michele had the game because that was Aubry's only chance to get out the one person who would beat her in the end, and she failed. Unfortunately for Aubry, Joe going out when he did kind of fucked her, and that's not her fault. At the same time she could have recognized Michele as a social threat at F6 and voted with Tai to take her out then instead of going after Jason who was basically a goat.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

My hashtag was tongue in cheek because anyone whose reads my posts on here on countless Big Brother/Survivor threads (OK...slip) knows that

1) I always defend seemingly WTF winners like Michele especially if they're underrated women and
2) I firmly believe there is no "deserves to win" in these social strategy games.

The goal is to get to the end and get the most votes. Michele did that. With the exception of unusual levels of production tampering (I count Big Brother 8 winner Dick Donato and Big Brother 13 winner Rachel Reilly among those) every season therefore gets the winner it deserves. Let me put it another way. When I say "Aubry was robbed" -- or when anyone says this -- what I/they really mean is, "The person I preferred didn't win." And that's OK. That's part of watching and being invested in these shows. So yes, I preferred Aubry, and Cydney was my second choice BUT I'm not onboard with the fan outrage because Michele was my third once Debbie was eliminated and even at F4 I was hoping they'd just vote out Tai and give me the all female F3 I wanted (even though obviously that would make little strategic sense unless there was a F2). I also remain grateful that douchebags like Jason & Scott were precluded from even having a shot to win.

I think what bothers me is not Michele winning but the fact that the producers didn't really show us enough of her. Sure there were hints in terms of that "winner's edit" but I'd have preferred more insight into her gameplay. I don't mean the incessant "strategizing" that annoying gamebots do. But it's clear, as slip pointed out, that Michele did have a great social game (which is the game) and I wish the show had telegraphed that more or shown us more of those social dynamics. What slip identifies as the social media fan outrage over Michele winning because "she didn't do anything" that seems to happen every time a woman wins Survivor/Big Brother is not just sexism on the part of fans (that's definitely part of it) but also an inability on the part of the producers to really understand and portray these social dynamics as legitimate gameplay and as relevant to the show. To them gameplay is only about some manly guy winning challenges or some dorky guy/girl pulling off big moves/blindsides. In its earlier seasons Survivor was actually much better about focusing whole segments of episodes on these social dynamics so that when someone like Michele won you could look back and see where that vote came from or how that relationship was nurtured. Now because they've turbo-charged the game with multiple idols and advantages and twists and challenges, there is less time to focus on the simpler but truly mysterious/best part of the show and so when people like Michele -- who used that mysterious/best part to her advantage -- win, it seems inexplicable.

Sidenote: HUGE props to Aubry for killing that fire-making tie-breaker and not having to go to blowtorches like they did on Cook Islands and Worlds Apart.

 

[slipintothefog]

I think the editors tried with Michele. She wasn't edited as UTR fluff like most female winners tend to be, all of those early confessionals she got when the Beauty tribe didn't have to go to tribal were them trying to present her strategy (the "I'm a bartender, being social and interacting with people is how I live my life" stuff, the "I don't need to be carried, bro" stuff with Nick, etc), and I feel like most of the votes in the end were explained on the show itself... except for Debbie's which would only make sense if one watches the Ponderosa videos. Sometimes they also don't have the material to craft an explanation for votes. I mean, Debbie again. Her jury speech seemed extremely pro-Aubry but she didn't vote for her in the end, and any known anger toward Aubry that she showed was only from an aspect of the season that wouldn't be shown on TV ever.

I definitely do think the editors have a problem in presenting people who are good at the "social game" in way that's coherent for casual fans. And I love the old seasons but Jenna Morasca is a perfect point. When I was 15 in 2003 and watching the show on a surface level, her win was utterly inexplicable as the show presented it, but inferring a little more in the social dynamics, it was clear that Heidi was her bestie, Rob liked her more than Matt, Deena was a feminist ball buster who allied with Jenna and probably wouldn't vote for a man to win, and despite the editing burying Jenna and trying to prop Matt up as a jury threat (save for Christy's "cweepy" confessional), most of the jury actually liked her and not him. I guess part of it is that they can't completely telegraph the winner as they want people wondering if X can get to the end and win, etc.

I'd say another part of the problem was that Aubry was a stronger character and controlled the season to a larger extent, and people always gravitate to wanting to see a proactive player like that win over somebody whose game is comparatively more passive.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

That's funny because for me watching Amazon (a season I enjoyed) it was clear that Matthew would have trouble winning because the show so often portrayed him as a weirdo who made others uncomfortable. I even remember Christy (Was that her name? The hearing impaired girl?) calling him "creepy" which explained her own vote since she was no fan of Jenna. It was Matthew's weirdo/outsider status that actually made it easy for Rob to control/manipulate him as I recall.

Conversely Jenna was portrayed as the cool girl and I felt like her relationships with multiple people on the jury were telegraphed clearly enough for me. Not an obvious winner but up against an unpopular creep, it made sense.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

HA! We're mind-melding again slip. You edited and included the Christy/creepy thing just as I was posting it also.