The only person who found a Hidden Immunity Idol and won his edition of Survivor is Cook Islands' Yul. And he helped himself win via negotiating prowess to get Jonathan to betray his greater-numbers group.
Tracy playing Joel by appealing to his senses was brilliant. She recognized her need to keep herself along with Chet and Kathy intact. She told Joel they have his back, but if he were to go along with Mike -- who wanted to screw over Joel for the latter having screwed over Mary -- for any of the three to get voted out would be a loss in backup numbers for Joel. Smart woman. And the way she conveyed it, it makes me think she's so far ahead of her fellow "Fans," Tracy may have the chops, and hopefully good fortune, to go all the way.
Regarding the "Favorites," Cirie betraying Jonathan -- and she did do that no matter how she spins the story between them -- may come back to bite her. I mean, deep down, I don't believe Jonathan is her problem. I didn't think Yul was her problem. I think a number of her contemporaries would want to do away with her anyway, be it Ami or Eliza or the two couples.
Of all these castaways, I am hoping Kathy is in there for a long time. Maybe to the end. This is not to say she is worthy. It doesn't look like it, what with her giving up on her third visit to Exile Island, and with Ozzy finding the Hidden Immunity Idol (by the way, notice -- it's always a man who comes up with it; not a very complimentary thing for the women participants). I want Kathy to last long because she is one thing a number of others (including most of the "Fans") are not: Kathy is entertaining! That first episode, in her acknowledging Chet as the first gay man she's known, and wondering about Tracy's breasts -- classic!