Tariffs in the second Trump Administration [SPLIT]

[Norri]

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If Trump really wants foreigners to invest and build factories in this country he might want to stop making them poorer.

 

[rareboy]

All these money men with their sudden 'come to Jesus' moments.

 

[KaraBulut]

Something to put a pin in...

Trump got big bundles of money from the oil industry in exchange for "drill baby drill" promises in the lead up to his 2024 re-election. He also met with several White Christian Nationalist oil billionaires to get their support- who knows what he promised them in return?

Those evangelical billionaires also got a gut-punch from Trump's tariffamegaddon, as did his Saudi benefactors.

When Trump took office, oil was trading in the $70/barrel range. Today, oil was trading at $58.23. That might not translate to cheaper gas at the pump but it does hit the wholesale and producer markets hard.

 

[TX-Beau]

If that continues, the oil companies that pump the cheapest will drag the price down even further in order to make up the losses with volume. That is going to fuck companies that rely on expensive fracking, and Toad will have planted a knife right in Abott's back where it belongs.

Boo Hoo for Texas; I love you like my bipolar cousin, from a safe distance.

 

[Norri]

If that continues, the oil companies that pump the cheapest will drag the price down even further in order to make up the losses with volume. That is going to fuck companies that rely on expensive fracking, and Toad will have planted a knife right in Abott's back where it belongs.

Boo Hoo for Texas; I love you like my bipolar cousin, from a safe distance.

Pumping the cheapest will reduce the amount of oil pumped. The oil companies want the right to drill where they want when they want that differs from Trump’s cheap energy play. I’ve never considered Trump to be a real businessman, he’s a real estate developer nothing more and if he expects actual business to sell at a loss he’s more moranic than I think.

I concede that is barely possible.

 

[TX-Beau]

Pumping the cheapest will reduce the amount of oil pumped. The oil companies want the right to drill where they want when they want that differs from Trump’s cheap energy play. I’ve never considered Trump to be a real businessman, he’s a real estate developer nothing more and if he expects actual business to sell at a loss he’s more moranic than I think.

I concede that is barely possible.

My Grandpa once told me that Saudi crude came up sweet and clean like honey, and all you had to do was stick a straw in the sand. He was an Executive at Exxon Pipeline and, incidentally, worked on the fracking project that Exxon tried to start in Colorado back in the 70's. That was abandoned because the tech didn't exist back then to frack in volume at a profitable price. But it's still expensive to frack. When OPEC cuts production like what's been going on recently, with a few hiccoughs, Texas booms; when the price goes low, it's bust because OPEC countries can pump at more significant volumes far cheaper than we or Canada can, though usually they also like high prices because everybody wins when the price is high enough.

A global recession means fewer cars sold, fewer vacations, fewer road trips across America, and less wholesale transport on land, air, or sea, which means less fuel. OPEC loses business and then attempts to recover by undercutting us by increasing volume beyond what we can afford to compete with. Which they will then sell in our market to Americans at a price Exxon can't match.

Texas loses.

New wells are extremely unlikely in a recession. If this continues, the market will be glutted with oil. Being the priciest option, fracked oil will decline. We've seen it before. It goes in cycles like that. We've even seen Exxon itself buying Saudi Crude and refining it in Texas refineries so they won't go bankrupt. Still, it will mean fewer profits and much-reduced R/D - and of course, it eventually means higher prices at the pump, the grocery store, and more expensive trips to see Grandma next Christmas.

 

[KaraBulut]

If that continues, the oil companies that pump the cheapest will drag the price down even further in order to make up the losses with volume. That is going to fuck companies that rely on expensive fracking, and Toad will have planted a knife right in Abott's back where it belongs.

Boo Hoo for Texas; I love you like my bipolar cousin, from a safe distance.

It's likely to get worse. OPEC just announced that they are increasing production which will lower the price further. The strategy is unclear. Apparently, they are living in the illusion that the economy is going to accelerate later in the year which will increase demand and send the price of oil upward again.

 

[Rickrock]

Today I received my quarterly statement on my retirement funds in the mail. It goes through March 31st ,which is a few days before Trump initiated his tariffs, so it looks okay. I won't get my next quarterly statement until July, so it is behind the times.

 

[cityboy-stl]

Today I received my quarterly statement on my retirement funds in the mail. It goes through March 31st ,which is a few days before Trump initiated his tariffs, so it looks okay. I won't get my next quarterly statement until July, so it is behind the times.

Are you able to look at your current balances online at the financial institution where the funds are held?

 

[rareboy]

 

[rareboy]

And China just raises their tariffs by 50% to match those imposed by Trump.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/china-to-raise-reciprocal-tariffs-on-us-goods-to-84percent.html

 

[rareboy]

His "trade advisor" is a guy that Jared found on the internet. Peter Navarro was hired as an advisor to Trump, even after Navarro went to Federal prison for refusing to testify to Congress and even after it was discovered that Navarro made up a character named "Ron Vara" who, for 20 years, he cited as being a Harvard educated investor and expert who Navarro multiple books. He created a fake alias for himself to support his fringe-y economic theories because he couldn't find any reputable economist or investor who agreed with him. Instead, he found Trump.

Who Is Ron Vara? The Truth Behind Peter Navarro's Fake Expert

How Trump's Trade Advisor Created and Quoted a Fictional Source to Bolster His Economic and China Policy Claims

brendonbeebe.substack.com

The market was up this morning (apparently based upon false social media posts that Trump was going to delay the tariffs). It's back down because the tariffs go into effect at midnight:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/08/trump-tariffs-live-updates-stock-market-china.html

Tomorrow is not going to be a good day.

There is not nearly enough being made of Navarro being utterly unsuited for his role in US government. It shows how utterly incompetent the administration is.

The incredibly clumsy Ron Varo thing would have been a career ender for any serious economist but in the Trump White House, it doesn't matter. His refusal to testify before Congress guaranteed him Trump's loyalty.

Reminder: It was Navarro and Co. who get pantsed in the first term with NAFTA 2.0. A deal he said was good for the US.

Why Peter Navarro calls USMCA 'very good news' for American manufacturing

President Trump’s new North American trade deal, the United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement, known as USMCA, was applauded at the White House Wednesday, with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador visiting. But along with the celebration come questions about what the pact means for the...

www.pbs.org

His grievances are as deep and broad as Trump's...so the two of them together, with their terrible judgement but passion for revenge likely rule the Roosevelt Room right now. Even Elon has been eclipsed.

And for one of the rare times, I have to agree with Musk's assessment of Navarro.... 'a moron' and 'dumber than a sack of bricks'.

MSN

 

[rareboy]

Uh oh.

The Koch Bros seem to have woken up. Now we will get to see who owns the Supreme Court.

 

[rareboy]

So much winning.

Microsoft has cancelled a $1 Billion project to build 3 new data centers in Ohio—just 5 days after Trump tariffs.
This means that Licking County, Ohio will now lose roughly 1,000 jobs & $150 million per year in revenue for the local economy.

400–600 construction jobs & 540 permanent jobs were expected to be created at full operation of the 3 new data centers.
Microsoft said it abandoned the $1 billion project "after careful consideration" of the shift in economic forecasting.

 

[KaraBulut]

And for one of the rare times, I have to agree with Musk's assessment of Navarro.... 'a moron' and 'dumber than a sack of bricks'.

MSN

Popcorn is made in America, so it's unlikely to be tariffed. That's probably a good thing because we're going to need a lot of popcorn.

Musk has unleashed his AI bots on Navarro, with the Musk sibling's account used as an echo chamber. It's increasingly sophomoric, with Musk now saying that his earlier comments about Navarro comparing Navarro to a sack of bricks is an insult to bricks.

So, the big money ketamine-fueled sociopath vs the looney populist advisor sets up a battle between the business backers of Trump and a the populist (and clueless) MAGA backers. So far, Trump is siding with the clueless.

Uh oh.

The Koch Bros seem to have woken up. Now we will get to see who owns the Supreme Court.

Texas man-whore and evangelical darling, Ken Paxton, just entered the US Senate race against John Cornyn (R-TX). This sets up another battle between the two sides of the Republican Party- the big money business crowd that backs Cornyn and the evangelical MAGA crowd that supports Paxton. The irony is that both Cornyn and Paxton are backed by Big Oil, Cornyn's support is from big oil companies and Paxton's is from the small producers in West Texas.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5119798-texas-gop-proxy-battle-paxton-cornyn/

 

[rareboy]

More to come on this I am sure.

Trump is announcing a major new tariff on drugs...I am sure that TrumpCo. realized that meds are a major potential source of revenue
and that some of them may be coming from Canada. Since the medications industries are much like the auto industries with international distribution of processing plants and R&D focussing on different drugs in different regions, it is hard to tell what the impact will be.

Since the drug companies will be simply passing the tariffs through to the end consumer, they may find that it makes no difference to their manufacturing because of currency differences making it still more economical to produce in Canada, Mexico and other countries.

Pharmaceutical industry profile

Profile of the industry, its size, structure, leading companies, sales, trade, leading products and R&D activities

ised-isde.canada.ca

United States Imports from Canada of Pharmaceutical products - 2025 Data 2026 Forecast 1991-2024 Historical

United States Imports from Canada of Pharmaceutical products was US$5.34 Billion during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. United States Imports from Canada of Pharmaceutical products - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April...

tradingeconomics.com

 

[rareboy]

And at the heart of the crash?????

Of course the WSJ means 'uncharted' territory but staff are likely all now 22 years old.

So who is going to buy 5 trillion more of US debt?

When you are at war with the whole world except rrrZZZia?

 

[KaraBulut]

Timing is everything... a "bang" in the pipeline?

 

[rareboy]

 

[KaraBulut]

Ridiculous to be toying with the world economy, all for feeding a malignant narcissist's ego. So much for the idea that they're going to be using tariffs to rebuild American manufacturing and reduce the Federal deficit.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/09/trump-tariffs-live-updates.html