Tariffs in the second Trump Administration [SPLIT]

[KaraBulut]

...And the Dems are again complicit. They also likely think that this revenue stream, once in place, will be useful.

More like they're looking for a campaign issue for 2026... since they don't seem to have a coherent strategy for the next election and they haven't offered any details of their overall plan once they gain power.

 

[rareboy]

​

 

[rareboy]

Well, well, well.

No surprise that a federal appeals court has ruled that most of Trump's tariffs are illegal.

Also no surprise that they didn't order a halt.

This is headed to the SC, where in a 6-3 or 5-4 decision, the right of tariffs will be effectively stripped from Congress and handed to the executive branch by some pretzel legal manipulation of the Constitution.

Court finds Trump's tariffs an illegal use of emergency power, but leaves them in place for now

A federal appeals court has ruled President Donald Trump illegally used emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs but left them in place for now. The U.S.

apnews.com

 

[rareboy]

1. The US has taken in roughly $150 billion in tariffs from importers- significantly less than a trillion, let alone trillions.

2. Tariffs single-handedly saving the US military is the dumbest shit Trump has written....and that is saying a lot.

3. What Trump is really afraid of is losing the ability to shake down other countries and companies for his own personal gain. He loses
a vast amount of personal clout the moment that the power to impose tariffs in a capricious and arbitrary way is taken away.

 

[KaraBulut]

1. The US has taken in roughly $150 billion in tariffs from importers- significantly less than a trillion, let alone trillions.

2. Tariffs single-handedly saving the US military is the dumbest shit Trump has written....and that is saying a lot.

3. What Trump is really afraid of is losing the ability to shake down other countries and companies for his own personal gain. He loses
a vast amount of personal clout the moment that the power to impose tariffs in a capricious and arbitrary way is taken away.

Well... billions.... and Trump is in a panic about having to refund it.

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www.cnn.com

If Trump loses his tariff lawsuit, America may have to refund businesses more than $200 billion

The majority of the sweeping tariffs President Donald Trump imposed during his second term face one final litmus test that will determine whether he can continue to levy them – and also whether businesses are eligible for massive refunds.

That potentially dramatic turn in the tariff saga comes after a federal appeals court ruled on Friday that Trump unlawfully leaned on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose across-the-board duties on countries. Trump had used those powers to push import tax rates as high as 50% on India and Brazil – and as high as 145% on China earlier this year.

 

[rareboy]

 

[KaraBulut]

Well... billions.... and Trump is in a panic about having to refund it.

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www.cnn.com

In the brief that the Trump Administration filed with SCOTUS, they used this as part of their doomsday scenario of what would happen if the Courts don't allow Trump to disregard the Constitution to levy tariffs.

 

[rareboy]

^ And the problem is that the SC owners will be on bith sides of this issue. There will be a real enthusiasm for shaking down other countries for billions (not trillions) of dollars,
but they also are generally smart enough that they know the economic impact on their own interests and the price of isolationism.

I fully expect the SC to carve out an exception to the power of congress and say that tariffs set only by Trump are permitted if the President 'believes' there is a threat against the US.

I expect their ruling to tip the world economy into recession. Which, of course also benefits the richest.

 

[KaraBulut]

^ And the problem is that the SC owners will be on bith sides of this issue. There will be a real enthusiasm for shaking down other countries for billions (not trillions) of dollars, but they also are generally smart enough that they know the economic impact on their own interests and the price of isolationism.

Except that's that what is happening. The tariffs are a shakedown of US corporations buying merchandise and raw materials from abroad. It's a direct and indirect tax on American citizens and there's a long history of Americans not liking taxation without representation, starting with the Boston Tea Party.

That's why even a far right Court like the Fifth Circuit (which has been packed with conservatives by Ted Cruz and his cronies) issued a 7-4 decision and a 120 page written ruling. The ruling declares that Trump has no authority under the Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to levy tariffs by Executive Order.

The Constitution grants Congress the power to “lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises” and to “regulate Commerce with foreign Nations.” U.S. Const. art. I, § 8, cl. 1, 3. Tariffs are a tax, and the Framers of the Constitution expressly contemplated the exclusive grant of taxing power to the legislative branch; when Patrick Henry expressed concern that the President “may easily become king,” 3 Debates in the Several State Conventions 58 (Jonathan Elliot ed., 1836), James Madison replied that this would not occur because “[t]he purse is in the hands of the representatives of the people,” id. at 393.

We are not addressing whether the President’s actions should have been taken as a matter of policy. Nor are we deciding whether IEEPA authorizes any tariffs at all. Rather, the only issue we resolve on appeal is whether the Trafficking Tariffs and Reciprocal Tariffs imposed by the Challenged Executive Orders are authorized by IEEPA. We conclude they are not.

The Fifth Circuit's opinion is an Originalist's wet dream, full of historical citations about why Congress has the responsibility for taxation and why Presidents do not. It's almost as if they wrote the opinion to dare the Federalist Society members on SCOTUS to refute it.

 

[fallsguy]

 

[KaraBulut]

By the way, the jobs report released last week has a different number.

The US is losing manufacturing jobs. Here's why.

Manufacturers are slowing hiring amid increased uncertainty around tariffs and consumer spending.

www.usatoday.com

Why is the manufacturing sector losing workers?

Manufacturing job loss isn’t exclusive to the Trump administration. Jobs in the industry – which slid to 12.7 million in August, or about 8% of total nonfarm employment – have dipped dramatically since their peak in 1979 when they accounted for roughly 22% of total employment. While there were gains made after the Great Recession, jobs began trending down again in early 2023.

That downward trend has continued into 2025, with the sector losing roughly 78,000 jobs over the year through August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Not -42,000 jobs. It's 78,000 manufacturing jobs lost since Trump assumed office.

So, when Trump is threatening Chicago and New Orleans, committing murder by blowing up boats in the Caribbean, or calling Hegseth the Wizard of War, remember that Trump is playing the distraction game and doesn't want us to notice that he's screwing the people who voted for him... oh, and Epstein.

 

[rareboy]

It may seem trite...but ending de minimis has really hit a lot of people in their personal lives, ruining their small businesses and hobby activities.

What a shame. Because none of the items people are buying are ever going to be made in the US.

On the other side of the equation, a lot of countries and companies no longer ship small parcel items to the US.

‘It's Just a Mess:' 23 People Explain How Tariffs Have Suddenly Ruined Their Hobby

"The real kick in the teeth is no matter how much manufacturing is brought back to the US these items will never be made in the USA. There is no upside."

www.404media.co

 

[KaraBulut]

It may seem trite...but ending de minimis has really hit a lot of people in their personal lives, ruining their small businesses and hobby activities.

The de minimis thing has flown under the radar since it was a pretty broad exemption. Without it, purchasers now get an invoice from the shipping company. Imagine buying a $100 item thinking, "Oh, I saved $20 by having it shipped from China!" and then you get a $50 tariff invoice...

 

[rareboy]

 

[KaraBulut]

The White House will be working to come up with distractions to cover up the latest economic data. Grocery prices jumped, pushing inflation to a 3 year high. Unemployment is up. The economy is slowing but has been disguised by an enormous investment in AI and tech companies this year.

If this pattern continues, we will have a return of 1970s style stagflation.

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www.cnbc.com

• The consumer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest gain since January, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.9%.
• The Labor Department reported a surprise increase in weekly unemployment compensation filings to a seasonally adjusted 263,000, the highest since October 2021.
• The reports provide the final pieces of a complicated data puzzle that central bankers will review at their two-day policy meeting that concludes Sept. 17.

US consumer inflation accelerates; weekly jobless claims approach four-year high

U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, but a surge in first-time applications for jobless benefits last week kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

• Consumer Price Index increases 0.4% in August
• CPI excluding food and energy advances 0.3%
• Consumer prices post largest annual gain in seven months
• Initial jobless claims jump 12,000 to 263,000 last week

WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, but a surge in first-time applications for jobless benefits last week kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next Wednesday.
The larger-than-expected rise in the Consumer Price Index reported by the Labor Department on Thursday resulted in the biggest year-on-year increase in inflation since January. Higher inflation and softening labor market conditions fanned fears of stagflation, and pose a dilemma for the U.S. central bank, beyond Wednesday's anticipated rate decision.

Federal Reserve could be in 'difficult' spot with higher prices, slower hiring

The prospect of high inflation stemming from widespread tariffs along with weaker hiring could put the Federal Reserve in a difficult spot, Fed policymakers said in minutes from last month’s meeting.

apnews.com

The prospect of high inflation stemming from widespread tariffs along with weaker hiring could put the Federal Reserve in a difficult spot, Fed policymakers said in minutes from last month’s meeting.

The minutes, released Wednesday, said that the Fed could keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged if inflation remained stubbornly elevated. And they said it could cut its rate if growth slowed and unemployment rose. The minutes were for the Fed’s March 18-19 meeting.

But if both happened at the same time, the Fed “may face difficult tradeoffs,” some of the 19 officials on the central bank’s interest-rate setting committee said. Rising unemployment can often lead to a recession, when the Fed would normally slash its key rate to support more borrowing and spending and stimulate the economy. Yet Fed officials would likely be reluctant to cut if inflation rose, because it usually seeks to cool higher prices by keeping its key rate unchanged — or even raising it if necessary.

 

[smokeshadow]

Trump Declares Inflation 'Solved' as Americans Pay More for Gas and Groceries

President Donald Trump has declared inflation “solved” as Americans are paying more for everyday goods like gas and groceries. “I’ve already solved inflation,” Trump told “Fox & Friends” on Friday morning. “Costs are down.” Inflation is now the highest it’s been since January, according to CNBC...

www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com

 

[Norri]

The White House will be working to come up with distractions to cover up the latest economic data. Grocery prices jumped, pushing inflation to a 3 year high. Unemployment is up. The economy is slowing but has been disguised by an enormous investment in AI and tech companies this year.

If this pattern continues, we will have a return of 1970s style stagflation.

Loading…

www.cnbc.com

US consumer inflation accelerates; weekly jobless claims approach four-year high

U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, but a surge in first-time applications for jobless benefits last week kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

Federal Reserve could be in 'difficult' spot with higher prices, slower hiring

The prospect of high inflation stemming from widespread tariffs along with weaker hiring could put the Federal Reserve in a difficult spot, Fed policymakers said in minutes from last month’s meeting.

apnews.com

Don’t you feel the dye has been cast and that a lil inflation should not overly influence what the Fed or the White House might do?
The market shrugged off those inflation numbers which never happened when Biden was president and it seems content to trade lower interest rates for a higher unemployment rate…….yeah I know no news there.

Trump’s relentless campaign against the Fed is providing dividends and Trump will get the economy he wants but if inflation keeps creeping up he’s toast and will pull a portion of his party down with him.

 

[KaraBulut]

Don’t you feel the dye has been cast and that a lil inflation should not overly influence what the Fed or the White House might do?

Little inflation? You might want to dig a little deeper into the numbers.

Right now, we're in a stock market bubble. There's billions in capital being poured into AI investment. A lot of that money will be lost on bad investments but because it is the sector that if growing fast, that's where the money is going. Remove the tech stocks, and the economy doesn't look good.

The Fed will need to lower interest rates. The revision of the 2024-2025 job numbers downward by nearly a million jobs and the lackluster job numbers that Trump has created in 2025 are reason enough for the Fed to drop rates by a small amount. Because we are at risk for stagflation (high inflation with stagnant consumer spending and higher unemployment), the Fed does need to add stimulus. But here's the problem: interest rates were already lower than they should be, so the Fed's toolbox is not well-stocked with options.

Trump isn't the first idiot to try to tamper with the economy. Turkey's Erdoğan fired the head of the central bank because he wouldn't lower interest rates. After the firing, the new head of the bank lowered interest rates, sending the Turkish lira into the toilet and pushing interest rates to 300%. Finally, after the public turned against Erdoğan, he agreed to let interest rates rise from 8.5% to 15%. Damage was done but after the interest rate increase, inflation dropped to 40%.

Turkey's monthly inflation rate- yes, those are double-digit inflation rates, mostly because of Erdoğan's tampering with the central bank and forcing interest rates to be too low:


And this is the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the US dollar during the same period.


What Trump is doing is the same reckless stupidity of Erdoğan. Trump has run his own businesses into bankruptcy and he's doing the same thing with the American economy.

The end of Erdoğanomics? Turkey almost doubles interest rates to fight inflation

The apparent U-turn is being entrusted to mainstream financial experts, while Erdoğan himself still insists interest rates should remain low.

www.politico.eu

Erdoğan has traditionally dismissed calls to raise interest rates, arguing Islamic teachings prohibit usury. “Please do follow me in the aftermath of the elections, and you will see that inflation will be going down along with interest rates,” Erdoğan insisted in an interview with CNN following the vote, insisting there would "absolutely" be no change in his handling of the economy.

 

[Norri]

Little inflation? You might want to dig a little deeper into the numbers.

‘lil inflation’ referred to the fact that what’s little today was big under Biden. But as a child of the 70s inflation looks rather tame to me. My first mortgage in the mid 80s was at 10.5% but even I think mortgage rates are high I was very surprised by how well the housing market held up when those rates doubled.

Edrogan is an apt comparison and I’m don’t mean just economically.

 

[KaraBulut]

‘lil inflation’ referred to the fact that what’s little today was big under Biden. But as a child of the 70s inflation looks rather tame to me. My first mortgage in the mid 80s was at 10.5% but even I think mortgage rates are high I was very surprised by how well the housing market held up when those rates doubled.

Edrogan is an apt comparison and I’m don’t mean just economically.

That's exactly it. The under 40 crowd thought that the sky was falling when inflation briefly jumped up to 8% after the economy restarted post-pandemic. Compared to historical inflation, it was nothing but Americans had spent 40 years living in a low inflation, low interest rate period. In retrospect, the Fed should have raised interest rates after the 2008 crisis.